Panzram
09-12-2002, 03:55 PM
The playoff fold has whittled down considerably in the past few weeks, with arguably just six teams left in the hunt in the National League and five --maybe six --teams remaining in the American League races.
Atlanta has already locked up the NL East title. And for all intents and purposes, St. Louis, Arizona, the Yankees, Minnesota, Oakland and Anaheim can start printing up playoff tickets. Seattle has an outside shot at the wild card in the AL, while Boston remains a longshot. The NL wild card race is a dead heat between Los Angeles and San Francisco, but Houston has an outside chance at catching up.
In case you haven't noticed, these 12 teams share something similar besides merely their contender status --all of them are starting to evaluate their pitching with a postseason angle. Anyone who has been monitoring the rehabilitation programs of the Yankees' Mariano Rivera or the Twins' Eric Milton understands what we're talking about. With those two teams all but mathematically assured of playoff spots, they're more focused on building up those two pitchers' arm strength so they're 100 percent for the postseason than having them contribute right now.
Of course, a team like the Dodgers doesn't have that luxury, and that means more risk for further injury for a staff that is clearly taxed. If you're still in your Fantasy league's title hunt, then you certainly have at least a handful of pitchers from these contenders, so be aware of their usage and the implications of their roles down the stretch.
Sticking with the Dodgers, the loss of Kazuhisa Ishii --likely for the rest of the season --puts a lot of pressure on this staff. Granted, the team faces the Padres seven more times, but it also pitches four games at Coors Field this weekend and takes on the Giants (4) and Rockies (2) a combined six more times at home. Odalis Perez, who has thrown nearly as many innings this season as he did the past three years combined, is going to have to keep toiling away, and while he shouldn't completely collapse, the huge workload increase might make him a major injury risk in 2003 --provided he makes it safely through this year. Kevin K. Brown, who still doesn't look completely past his prior back problems, has been pressed back into the rotation at a time where he might be better served simply building up arm strength for the postseason. Don't be shocked if the Dodgers' staff in general underachieves the next two weeks.
On the other hand, the Twins and Cardinals are teams whose staffs have made a noticeable upturn in the past several weeks. Both teams have been snakebitten for most of the year due to a barrage of injuries and misfortune, but now are back to near full strength and are simply gearing up for the postseason.
The Cardinals, who have already used 14 different starting pitchers this season, now sport a healthy, solid top five in Matt Morris, Chuck Finley, Woody Williams, Andy Benes and Jason Simontacchi, and closer Jason Isringhausen looks like he is over his shoulder woes. That actually pushes newly-acquired Jamey Wright and healthy Garrett Stephenson into middle relief, limiting their Fantasy value. St. Louis has a fairly challenging schedule coming up, playing its next seven games in Minute Maid Park and Coors Field before hosting the Astros and Diamondbacks at home. However, the way Morris, Williams and Benes have looked lately, we wouldn't bet against this inspired team. Expect a few bumps along the way as they gear up the rotation for the playoffs, but Cardinals pitchers suddenly look like some of the best Fantasy choices for the stretch run.
In Minnesota, things couldn't look much better now that Brad Radke, Milton and Joe Mays appear fully healthy. Milton in particular is still building up arm strength, but by his next start or two, he should be back to full strength. Incidentally, you have to feel confident in your chances for Fantasy success if you own a Twins starter, particularly since they face the struggling Indians, Tigers and White Sox lineups the next two-plus weeks.
How does the Rivera situation in New York affect the Fantasy playoff landscape? The postseason wonder is looking very good in his recovery from a strained shoulder, but don't expect the Yankees to push him down the stretch, instead likely using him in a quasi-rehabilitation role the final 10 days of the regular season to get him geared up for their playoffs. That means Steve Karsay and Mike Stanton should retain their prominent roles in the late innings even when Rivera is finally activated, because they should continue to get their share of saves while posting top-notch ERA and WHIP totals for your Fantasy team. The Yankees face a ridiculously easy schedule the rest of the year --seven more games against Tampa Bay, four against Baltimore and three apiece against Detroit and the White Sox --so this bullpen should be among the safest around, which is great news for those of you who need a little push in the ratio categories.
Arguably no single pitcher's availability the final two weeks of the season will have a greater impact on his team's chances than Seattle's Kazuhiro Sasaki. If his elbow problems are indeed as serious as some people are saying, the Mariners will be forced to push Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson and/or Shigetoshi Hasegawa into the closer's role, something none has proven he can handle over the long term at any point in his career. That also hurts the team's middle relief and setup picture, especially since John Halama has been anything but effective in that role of late. The starting pitchers will then be pressed a little harder in a time where the team can least afford it, when it faces division rivals Anaheim, Oakland and Texas the rest of the season. Monitor Sasaki's injury closely down the stretch, and temper your expectations for him and the rest of this staff if it is indeed serious.
Finally, here are some other pitchers we feel will be key contributors to their respective teams, as well as Fantasy teams, in the final two weeks: Arizona's Miguel Batista, who has proven to be a great second-half pitcher and effective starter this year and last; Atlanta's Chris Hammond, one of the few who is unlikely to have his role reduced now that the team has clinched; Boston's Tim Wakefield, who is so valuable because he just eats up innings; Houston's Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner, who will be counted on to hold some close leads in upcoming games against the tough Cardinals and Giants; and San Francisco's Jason Schmidt, who has the talent to lead this staff but just needs to put it all together. We'll neglect Oakland here, but only because you could pick any pitcher on its staff and be in great hands.
Atlanta has already locked up the NL East title. And for all intents and purposes, St. Louis, Arizona, the Yankees, Minnesota, Oakland and Anaheim can start printing up playoff tickets. Seattle has an outside shot at the wild card in the AL, while Boston remains a longshot. The NL wild card race is a dead heat between Los Angeles and San Francisco, but Houston has an outside chance at catching up.
In case you haven't noticed, these 12 teams share something similar besides merely their contender status --all of them are starting to evaluate their pitching with a postseason angle. Anyone who has been monitoring the rehabilitation programs of the Yankees' Mariano Rivera or the Twins' Eric Milton understands what we're talking about. With those two teams all but mathematically assured of playoff spots, they're more focused on building up those two pitchers' arm strength so they're 100 percent for the postseason than having them contribute right now.
Of course, a team like the Dodgers doesn't have that luxury, and that means more risk for further injury for a staff that is clearly taxed. If you're still in your Fantasy league's title hunt, then you certainly have at least a handful of pitchers from these contenders, so be aware of their usage and the implications of their roles down the stretch.
Sticking with the Dodgers, the loss of Kazuhisa Ishii --likely for the rest of the season --puts a lot of pressure on this staff. Granted, the team faces the Padres seven more times, but it also pitches four games at Coors Field this weekend and takes on the Giants (4) and Rockies (2) a combined six more times at home. Odalis Perez, who has thrown nearly as many innings this season as he did the past three years combined, is going to have to keep toiling away, and while he shouldn't completely collapse, the huge workload increase might make him a major injury risk in 2003 --provided he makes it safely through this year. Kevin K. Brown, who still doesn't look completely past his prior back problems, has been pressed back into the rotation at a time where he might be better served simply building up arm strength for the postseason. Don't be shocked if the Dodgers' staff in general underachieves the next two weeks.
On the other hand, the Twins and Cardinals are teams whose staffs have made a noticeable upturn in the past several weeks. Both teams have been snakebitten for most of the year due to a barrage of injuries and misfortune, but now are back to near full strength and are simply gearing up for the postseason.
The Cardinals, who have already used 14 different starting pitchers this season, now sport a healthy, solid top five in Matt Morris, Chuck Finley, Woody Williams, Andy Benes and Jason Simontacchi, and closer Jason Isringhausen looks like he is over his shoulder woes. That actually pushes newly-acquired Jamey Wright and healthy Garrett Stephenson into middle relief, limiting their Fantasy value. St. Louis has a fairly challenging schedule coming up, playing its next seven games in Minute Maid Park and Coors Field before hosting the Astros and Diamondbacks at home. However, the way Morris, Williams and Benes have looked lately, we wouldn't bet against this inspired team. Expect a few bumps along the way as they gear up the rotation for the playoffs, but Cardinals pitchers suddenly look like some of the best Fantasy choices for the stretch run.
In Minnesota, things couldn't look much better now that Brad Radke, Milton and Joe Mays appear fully healthy. Milton in particular is still building up arm strength, but by his next start or two, he should be back to full strength. Incidentally, you have to feel confident in your chances for Fantasy success if you own a Twins starter, particularly since they face the struggling Indians, Tigers and White Sox lineups the next two-plus weeks.
How does the Rivera situation in New York affect the Fantasy playoff landscape? The postseason wonder is looking very good in his recovery from a strained shoulder, but don't expect the Yankees to push him down the stretch, instead likely using him in a quasi-rehabilitation role the final 10 days of the regular season to get him geared up for their playoffs. That means Steve Karsay and Mike Stanton should retain their prominent roles in the late innings even when Rivera is finally activated, because they should continue to get their share of saves while posting top-notch ERA and WHIP totals for your Fantasy team. The Yankees face a ridiculously easy schedule the rest of the year --seven more games against Tampa Bay, four against Baltimore and three apiece against Detroit and the White Sox --so this bullpen should be among the safest around, which is great news for those of you who need a little push in the ratio categories.
Arguably no single pitcher's availability the final two weeks of the season will have a greater impact on his team's chances than Seattle's Kazuhiro Sasaki. If his elbow problems are indeed as serious as some people are saying, the Mariners will be forced to push Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson and/or Shigetoshi Hasegawa into the closer's role, something none has proven he can handle over the long term at any point in his career. That also hurts the team's middle relief and setup picture, especially since John Halama has been anything but effective in that role of late. The starting pitchers will then be pressed a little harder in a time where the team can least afford it, when it faces division rivals Anaheim, Oakland and Texas the rest of the season. Monitor Sasaki's injury closely down the stretch, and temper your expectations for him and the rest of this staff if it is indeed serious.
Finally, here are some other pitchers we feel will be key contributors to their respective teams, as well as Fantasy teams, in the final two weeks: Arizona's Miguel Batista, who has proven to be a great second-half pitcher and effective starter this year and last; Atlanta's Chris Hammond, one of the few who is unlikely to have his role reduced now that the team has clinched; Boston's Tim Wakefield, who is so valuable because he just eats up innings; Houston's Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner, who will be counted on to hold some close leads in upcoming games against the tough Cardinals and Giants; and San Francisco's Jason Schmidt, who has the talent to lead this staff but just needs to put it all together. We'll neglect Oakland here, but only because you could pick any pitcher on its staff and be in great hands.