Why the Bucs Will/Will not Win the NL Central!

[Greymire]

OK. I am looking for responses to why you think the Buccos will or will not win the NL Central this year. If you like you can even take both sides if/or type response. Here is my reply:

I actually think the Buccos have a shot this year. This division is notorious for having favorites who flop. While the Cubs are improved, and will be very tough under Dusty Baker, I feel the rest of the Division will be very up and down this year. Our pitching staff and Pen are going to be much improved over last year, and we were not terrible then. Well could have easily won 18 with better run support. Benson will be strong and at least one of the Torres/Meadow/D'Amico/Dave Williams foursome will have a great year. If Fogg can repeat last year, then we will have a very tough rotation with a pen that was already pretty decent and has only gotten better by adding Herges. Arrojo could also make an impact. Any pitcher on the bubble from last year had better come through, because we hav a lot of options.

I think out offense, by adding Stairs and Simon will be much better. I look for Aram to be back in form and Giles to have his typical year. Jack Wilson will also improve at the plate and may steal a few more bases as well. I expect him to hit at least .270 or higher. I am not sure about Kendall. We can only hope there, but I am not overly confident about him. We may still add a center fielder and that would only help us. Our defense should be ok with Aram improving, and Jack and Pokey up the middle. The outfield will be average depending on who is in Center. Stairs and Giles are both decent fielders (Giles being a bit better than average). All this will add up to a very competitive team that will suprise many.

Now I make this assumption (going out on a limb) counting on aquiring a center fielder. With out that our bench will be weak and an injury could hurt us. The bench could be interesting with the new signings and such. Still..right now I pick the Bucs to be the suprise of the year and Win the NL Central!

[Big Dawg]

NL Central...that's the division the cards are in, right? And the Cubs?

there's two reasons right there why they won't win the division.

I'd worry about Houston too.

[GiveHyzduashot]

I don't think the Pirates are quite yet ready to make a run at the NL Central. We still have question marks at catcher, centerfield, and rightfield. The play of the middle infield is outstanding defensively; offensively, they'll be okay if everyone else picks up the slack.

The offense will be improved, there's not much room to go. Giles-Aramis-Simon make a solid three through five. Jack Flash did admirably hitting second last year. Leadoff is a bit of a question mark. On paper, Kendall looks best, but do we really want a $10 million player hitting singles and doubles? Reese also could be a go in the sixth spot. If Reese bats leadoff, Kendall hits sixth. If Kendall leads off, Reese bats eighth. If Reese is setting the table, six through eight should be Kendall, RF, Mackowiak. If Kendall sets us up, six through eight should be RF, Mackowiak, Reese. Either way, the offensive production should be good. I'm expecting a huge year from Ramirez.

Pitching wise, there's questions about everyone, but the questions about Fogg and the fourth and fifth spots loom larger than Benson's and Wells's question marks. I agree Ralph; D'Amico/Fogg/Meadows/Williams/Torres should combine for a decent to very good (if Fogg is like he was last year) three through five.

The bullpen will be very good. After the seventh with Sauerbeck and Williams, we're lights out. Boehringer is a good setup man, and I expect Herges will be good too. Beimel's a good long reliever as well.

The bench ... we'll have to see how things shake out to determine how strong that will be.

This year, I'm expecting 80+ wins. I will be very satisfied with 85+ wins, and anything between 80-84 I would call a success. That's assuming things shake out as I expect; if Aramis stinks again this year we'll be looking down the barrel at 70 some wins again. Next year, I believe, is the year.

[Greymire]

Originally posted by Big Dawg
NL Central...that's the division the cards are in, right? And the Cubs?

there's two reasons right there why they won't win the division.

I'd worry about Houston too.

I knew this would get some talk going. As for the Astro's they have to be the biggest underachievers of the last 10 years. Every year we hear how this is the year, and most of the time they are lucky to play .500 much less contend for the division. They have had a few excellent seasons, but not compared to what we are always told. The Cubbies will be the team to beat in my opinion. They have a lot of talented youth as well as the old guys to add experiance. The Cards are tough as well. The Central actually looks rather balanced overall. On paper, all of the above are far better than the Bucco's. I just have a feeling that we are in for one of those Cinderella type years. It is more of a hunch than anything else.

[PissedPrincess]

Greymire is so reasonable and polite. I woulda told Big Dawg to worry about his own team.:D

About the Stros, as long as Jimy is manager, they're doomed. GO BUCS!

[3-2 Changeup]

Barring a trade, I'm looking for an 83-79 record with Giles (40), Ramirez (35)and Simon (25) having productive seasons and combining for 100 HR. I think Fogg is OK as the #3 or #4. There should be good depth in the rotation providing that one or two guys emerge in ST. It's hard to come to grips with the fact that our middle infielders had more HR and RBI than our $10 million catcher. (Pudge signed a one-year for $10 with the Marlins today. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't make that trade even up catcher-for-catcher?) If Kendall returns to form and there are no major season-ending injuries, 83 wins and a solid third place finish are in the cards.

The bench is a little thin when compared to contenders. I am thinking 04 and the break out year, all things staying on track (which they never do).

[PopTop]

First off, I'll try not to turn this into a talk on the Astros since the Why Houston Will/Won't Win threads are located in that forum ... But I do think Princess makes a valid point regarding Jimy Williams (as you will also read inthe Astros forum) ... As for the "most of the time (Houston is) lucky to play .500 much less contend for the division," all I can say on that is if the 'Stros win the division this seaosn it will be #5 in the last seven years ... If that translates into "most of the time they are lucky to play .500," then I'm not sure what that says about the rest of the division "most of the time"

Ah, but this is the Pirates forum ... I think the Bucs will be improved and win 80 ... Anything over that would mean an injury-free year, something they will need since, as mentioned, their bench isn't as deep as some other teams.

I like Wells, Benson and Fogg in the first 3 slots of the rotation, and the pen was very underrated in 2002 ... Herges adds to the mix, and really pitched well after a tough start in Montreal last season when he was probably a bit over-matched as closer.

Simon should either be an upgrade at 1B over Kevin Young, or possibly spur Young to have a better year ... Giles is a stud, pure and simple, and I've always liked Kendall ... Aramis is reportedly in great shape and that makes a slow start like 2002 seem unlikely ... And every team should be so lucky as to have a balls-to-the-wall act like Mackowiak.

By the way, I got to see PNC Park last September, and think it's the best of the new (1990 on) stadiums in the majors ... We sat all over the place, and it's a very intimate setting for a game ... Had a great weekend (also saw my Texas Aggies squeak past Pitt at Heinz the same weekend), and the Pittsburgh fans, both Pirates and Panthers, couldn't have been nicer to us.

Thanks for posting this simultaneously with my Astros report, Greymire.

[Baseball Guru]

I think that this division is one of the more balanced divisions in baseball at this time....I see no clear cut winner but I do see the Cubs, Cards and maybe the Stros leading the way with the Reds and Pirates around the .500 mark and the Brewers still distant....

Lets face it though, the Pirates are a much better team than the 100 loss team 2 seasons ago and they look to be improving slowly but surely every year....

I think they will finish in 4th place again this season but with a better record.....

All good points have been made in this thread so I dont have much to add....

Good luck:thumbsup:

[GiveHyzduashot]

PT, you're right on when you mention the Pirates bullpen being underrated. It starts with Mike Williams, who saved 40+ games on a bad team, had a save conversion percentage of around 90, and for awhile, almost gave Florida's reliever (Harvey?) from a few years back a run for his money with the highest percentage of games saved in relation to the win total. Sauerbeck, for my money, is the most underrated lefthanded reliever in baseball. Boehringer had a decent year as well. Yet none of the three are recognized as being some of the game's best.

Mackowiak is a great story. Fifty-sixth round pick to, for now at least, being our every day centerfielder. I compare him to Mark Lemke in that both are blue collar, hard working players. Hopefully, Mackowiak will experience Lemke's post-season experience.

21 more days ... 21 more days ... 21 more days.

[imgreat95]

Originally posted by PopTop
Aramis is reportedly in great shape and that makes a slow start like 2002 seem unlikely ...

Just for the recored, aramis didn';t have a slow start last season.

[Greymire]

I guess the point I was trying to make about the Astros is that they never seem to live up to their billing. And yep, it is a Pirates forum so you probably will not read many positive Astros comments here (although Bagwell is still one of my favorite players).

[3-2 Changeup]

Shawn's right, A-Ram was on fire last Spring. I just hope he doesn't suffer from Mickey Lolich Syndrome. The Tigers ragged Lolich abou this weight even as he was winning 16-19 games and eventually put him on a program (eliminated his customary post-game pizza and six-pack) to lose weight. The next year Lolich sucked winning 14. He packed the beef back on and his performance rebounded with several 20+ win seasons while logging over 300 innings. Maybe A-Ram gets him strength from that little extra beef. Granted after his injury he was hog-fat. A-Ram's man-on-a-mission focus this year is going to make all the difference.

[Greymire]

Yes he was hot before the DUMB injury. Another example is David Wells. He seemed to get better as his waist line increased as well.

[PopTop]

Sorry I wasn't more specific about Ramirez' start ... He did hit a lot of singles in April and drove in a whopping 5 runs in the opening month ... But then he fell off with a combo average under .190 for May & June, and by the time the infamous All-Star Game ended in a tie, I believe A-Ram had all of 4 long balls, some of which can certainly be attributed to being injured, but still well below the number you'd hope for froma guy who is and was being counted on to hit 30-40 for the season.

[Big Dawg]

Originally posted by pedro's princess
Greymire is so reasonable and polite. I woulda told Big Dawg to worry about his own team.:D


oh REALLY?????????? and exactly what are YOU doing outside the BoSox forum? :biggrinpa :eviltongu :biggrinpa

[PissedPrincess]

Eh, starting a little trouble. Slow day.

:smokin::D

[Big Dawg]

starting a little trouble? that's MY job!!

[GiveHyzduashot]

Originally posted by Big Dawg
starting a little trouble? that's MY job!!

You do it well. ;)

[Big Dawg]

What's the point in doing a job if you're gonna do it half-assed?