Baseball Guru
02-16-2003, 08:18 PM
Anticipation and hopes run high throughout this division, economics having prompted the team with a stranglehold on it to loosen its grip. But the excitement transcends the mere fact the Braves had to change: Their key departures have stayed right in the division, this stunning spreading-the-wealth yielding remarkable balance.
The Braves have fertilized each of their division foes, with the exception of the Expos. So the club that has won the NL East every season of its current configuration has some serious competition. And maybe that's what Atlanta brass wanted, after a dynastic run of 11 consecutive division titles that netted only one World Series championship.
The last club other than the Braves to win the NL East was Philadelphia, a decade ago, when Atlanta was still confounding cartographers by belonging to the NL West. Happy Tin Anniversary, Phillies.
Favorites
Philadelphia Phillies
This was a very competitive team in 2001 which, after a distractions-greased retreat last year, has added a No. 1 starting pitcher and a No. 1 offensive weapon. As makeovers go, you can't be more thorough than that.
Biggest ST challenge: They'll be chomping at the bit to get the show on the road. Also, everyone will be on edge to see how the new pieces fit and, should the Grapefruit League not go well, they'll have to be careful to not read too much into it.
Best position battles: Rookie Marlon Byrd leads the competition to replace Doug Glanville in center but vet Ricky Ledee, only four years older, could take advantage of an opening.
Spring outlook: Peaceful, with Scott Rolen and his soapbox in Jupiter.
Projected regular season finish: First place.
Challengers
New York Mets
They played the Murphy Law schedule last season. Expecting a degree of bounce-back from that is only natural, and if their latest round of high-upside improvements works out better, the Mets will chase the Phillies to the wire.
Biggest ST challenge: Keeping Mo Vaughn out of the Port St. Lucie buffets -- no matter how many calories he burns off under the midday Florida sun.
Best position battles: Brett Butler is on hand to prep Roger Cedeno for center, where he played exactly zero games in 2002 but should have little trouble keeping the position from Timo Perez. Ty Wigginton will have to look convincing from the get-go to sway the Mets from a panic-move for an established third baseman.
Spring outlook: Camp Placid, with Art Howe replacing Bobby Valentine as counselor.
Projected regular season finish: Second place.
Atlanta Braves
After leading the NL in wins, GM John Schuerholz was forced to reinvent the wheel. Of the Braves' 101 wins, a whopping 66 are suiting up elsewhere, topped by staff-leading 18-game winners Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood. If a decade-plus of success had made the Braves complacent and their fans jaded ... well, this should take care of it. But, guess what? Atlanta also has the only division starting lineup returning intact, so hold those king-is-dead toasts.
Biggest ST challenge: Getting their work done in-between saying hello to all their scattered former teammates. Pitching coach Leo Mazzone will be so busy familiarizing himself with his new staff, he won't have time to do any rocking on the bench.
Best position battles: Marcus Giles and Mark DeRosa will square off for the bulk of the playing time at second base, where departed Keith Lockhart saw the most action (89 games) in 2002.
Spring outlook: Talkative. They'll have to answer the question, "Can you guys win again behind a new staff?" until they're Braves blue in the face.
Projected regular season finish: Third place.
Darkhorse
Montreal Expos
Maybe it doesn't get darker than this. However, it's worth remembering that Frank Robinson had whipped them into a long-shot contender before Bartolo Colon arrived last summer, so how is his departure a crushing blow? And if Orlando Cabrera rebounds strongly from an off-year and sophomore Brad Wilkerson plays with added confidence, the offense will only get better.
Biggest ST challenge: Keeping their focus on the field, not on ongoing discussions about possible 2004 destinations, or finding out about the best beaches in Puerto Rico.
Best position battles: Wil Cordero leads off a potpourri of candidates in a wide-open battle for the first-base job. Jose Macias, who looked promising in a late-season trial at third base, will try to keep Fernando Tatis on the block, or at least on the bench.
Spring outlook: Productive. Now F. Robby -- recall the cattle-call auditions he felt compelled to hold a year ago -- can roll up his sleeves and really get to work.
Projected regular season finish: Fourth place.
Maybe next year
Florida Marlins
The work-in-progress goes on. The starting lineup has been turned over 50 percent, and only three-fifths of last spring's highly-touted starting rotation is still around. Yet the reconstructed Marlins are ideally suited to play classic NL-style ball -- speed, defense, pitching -- and being cast as the East's weakest link is further proof of the division's strength.
Biggest ST challenge: Coming up with a lineup. Having speedsters Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre back-to-back at the top may not be ideal, and Jeff Torborg may even toy with batting Ivan Rodriguez clean-up rather than Derrek Lee, whose team-high 27 homers weren't enough to forgive 164 strikeouts.
Best position battles: Alex Gonzalez, whose early-season severe dislocated shoulder set a bad tone, returns to try to reclaim his job from Andy Fox, who stepped in admirably last year. It's a free-for-all for the No. 5 starter spot, with Carl Pavano and lefty Michael Tejera the early favorites.
Spring outlook: Different. The Marlins move in at Jupiter, co-habitating with the Cardinals, hoping some of their championship stock rubs off. And more relaxed, without the moving vans with the Canadian license plates; last spring's ownership swap had everyone on the edge.
Projected regular season finish: Fifth place, one extended winning streak removed from fourth.
Fearless predictions
1) Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz, poster boys for the Mets' disastrous 2002 season, will combine for 70 home runs and make GM Steve Phillips look like a deferred genius.
2) Josh Beckett and Stan's Blister Cream (an ointment well-known on the rodeo circuit that will prevent recurrences of the problem that landed him on the disabled list three times) will team up for 15 wins.
3) Vladimir Guerrero will tire of stealing bases, giving up his quest of a 40-40 season, and instead will win a Triple Crown, the NL's first since the Cardinals' Joe Medwick did it -- 66 years ago.
The Braves have fertilized each of their division foes, with the exception of the Expos. So the club that has won the NL East every season of its current configuration has some serious competition. And maybe that's what Atlanta brass wanted, after a dynastic run of 11 consecutive division titles that netted only one World Series championship.
The last club other than the Braves to win the NL East was Philadelphia, a decade ago, when Atlanta was still confounding cartographers by belonging to the NL West. Happy Tin Anniversary, Phillies.
Favorites
Philadelphia Phillies
This was a very competitive team in 2001 which, after a distractions-greased retreat last year, has added a No. 1 starting pitcher and a No. 1 offensive weapon. As makeovers go, you can't be more thorough than that.
Biggest ST challenge: They'll be chomping at the bit to get the show on the road. Also, everyone will be on edge to see how the new pieces fit and, should the Grapefruit League not go well, they'll have to be careful to not read too much into it.
Best position battles: Rookie Marlon Byrd leads the competition to replace Doug Glanville in center but vet Ricky Ledee, only four years older, could take advantage of an opening.
Spring outlook: Peaceful, with Scott Rolen and his soapbox in Jupiter.
Projected regular season finish: First place.
Challengers
New York Mets
They played the Murphy Law schedule last season. Expecting a degree of bounce-back from that is only natural, and if their latest round of high-upside improvements works out better, the Mets will chase the Phillies to the wire.
Biggest ST challenge: Keeping Mo Vaughn out of the Port St. Lucie buffets -- no matter how many calories he burns off under the midday Florida sun.
Best position battles: Brett Butler is on hand to prep Roger Cedeno for center, where he played exactly zero games in 2002 but should have little trouble keeping the position from Timo Perez. Ty Wigginton will have to look convincing from the get-go to sway the Mets from a panic-move for an established third baseman.
Spring outlook: Camp Placid, with Art Howe replacing Bobby Valentine as counselor.
Projected regular season finish: Second place.
Atlanta Braves
After leading the NL in wins, GM John Schuerholz was forced to reinvent the wheel. Of the Braves' 101 wins, a whopping 66 are suiting up elsewhere, topped by staff-leading 18-game winners Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood. If a decade-plus of success had made the Braves complacent and their fans jaded ... well, this should take care of it. But, guess what? Atlanta also has the only division starting lineup returning intact, so hold those king-is-dead toasts.
Biggest ST challenge: Getting their work done in-between saying hello to all their scattered former teammates. Pitching coach Leo Mazzone will be so busy familiarizing himself with his new staff, he won't have time to do any rocking on the bench.
Best position battles: Marcus Giles and Mark DeRosa will square off for the bulk of the playing time at second base, where departed Keith Lockhart saw the most action (89 games) in 2002.
Spring outlook: Talkative. They'll have to answer the question, "Can you guys win again behind a new staff?" until they're Braves blue in the face.
Projected regular season finish: Third place.
Darkhorse
Montreal Expos
Maybe it doesn't get darker than this. However, it's worth remembering that Frank Robinson had whipped them into a long-shot contender before Bartolo Colon arrived last summer, so how is his departure a crushing blow? And if Orlando Cabrera rebounds strongly from an off-year and sophomore Brad Wilkerson plays with added confidence, the offense will only get better.
Biggest ST challenge: Keeping their focus on the field, not on ongoing discussions about possible 2004 destinations, or finding out about the best beaches in Puerto Rico.
Best position battles: Wil Cordero leads off a potpourri of candidates in a wide-open battle for the first-base job. Jose Macias, who looked promising in a late-season trial at third base, will try to keep Fernando Tatis on the block, or at least on the bench.
Spring outlook: Productive. Now F. Robby -- recall the cattle-call auditions he felt compelled to hold a year ago -- can roll up his sleeves and really get to work.
Projected regular season finish: Fourth place.
Maybe next year
Florida Marlins
The work-in-progress goes on. The starting lineup has been turned over 50 percent, and only three-fifths of last spring's highly-touted starting rotation is still around. Yet the reconstructed Marlins are ideally suited to play classic NL-style ball -- speed, defense, pitching -- and being cast as the East's weakest link is further proof of the division's strength.
Biggest ST challenge: Coming up with a lineup. Having speedsters Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre back-to-back at the top may not be ideal, and Jeff Torborg may even toy with batting Ivan Rodriguez clean-up rather than Derrek Lee, whose team-high 27 homers weren't enough to forgive 164 strikeouts.
Best position battles: Alex Gonzalez, whose early-season severe dislocated shoulder set a bad tone, returns to try to reclaim his job from Andy Fox, who stepped in admirably last year. It's a free-for-all for the No. 5 starter spot, with Carl Pavano and lefty Michael Tejera the early favorites.
Spring outlook: Different. The Marlins move in at Jupiter, co-habitating with the Cardinals, hoping some of their championship stock rubs off. And more relaxed, without the moving vans with the Canadian license plates; last spring's ownership swap had everyone on the edge.
Projected regular season finish: Fifth place, one extended winning streak removed from fourth.
Fearless predictions
1) Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz, poster boys for the Mets' disastrous 2002 season, will combine for 70 home runs and make GM Steve Phillips look like a deferred genius.
2) Josh Beckett and Stan's Blister Cream (an ointment well-known on the rodeo circuit that will prevent recurrences of the problem that landed him on the disabled list three times) will team up for 15 wins.
3) Vladimir Guerrero will tire of stealing bases, giving up his quest of a 40-40 season, and instead will win a Triple Crown, the NL's first since the Cardinals' Joe Medwick did it -- 66 years ago.