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GaryMrMets
04-29-2003, 06:34 PM
http://www.yesnetwork.com/announcers/index.cfm?cont_id=176987&page_type=wide

After Clemens, who?

By Phil Pepe http://www.yesnetwork.com/photos/pepes_small.jpg
Special to YES Network Online
April 23, 2003

When he wins his 300th game, Roger Clemens will be the 21st pitcher in baseball history to win that many, the 14th to do it since 1903, the start of the game’s so-called modern era, the second to do it while wearing a Yankees uniform, and quite possibly, the last ever to reach that number.

Let’s examine those statements individually.

Baseball record keeping dates back to 1876, which means a 300-game winner comes along once every six years. But 11 members of the 300 club played before 1925, so in the last 78 years, there have been only nine new members admitted, six (Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Nolan Ryan) in the last 21 years. However, there have been none since 1990. Clemens will break that 13-year drought.

By contrast, it is interesting to note that none of the 18 members of the 500-home run club played before 1914, only three (Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott) before 1946, and that four new members (Eddie Murray, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa) have joined since 1996 with the membership likely to swell over the next decade.

The decline of the 300-game winner is in direct proportion to the rise of the 500-home run hitter, leading to the obvious conclusion that the game has changed and we are in an era in which the emphasis is on offense. The 300-game winner is an endangered species.

Conventional wisdom preaches that pitching wins championships, and yet the hallmark of the game’s most successful and most storied franchise has been its sluggers, not its pitchers. They are “Murderers Row” not the “Hall of Hurlers;” “Bronx Bombers” not the “Parade of Pitchers.” This is not to fly in the face of conventional wisdom and state that pitching is not vital to a team’s success, but consider the Yankees dynasties and the names that pop up are Ruth and Gehrig, DiMaggio and Berra, Mantle and Maris, Jackson and Nettles.

The Yankees have had more 500 home-run hitters (Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson) than 300-game winners (Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro), neither of whom was closely identified with the Yankees. Perry won his 300th game as a member of the Seattle Mariners in 1982, two years after leaving the Yankees, for whom he recorded only four of his 314 career victories. Niekro won his 300th game as a Yankee in 1985. He won 32 games as a Yankee, 286 with the Braves and Indians. Even Clemens has won the bulk of his games (233) with teams other than the Yankees.

No pitcher has even come close to winning 300 games as a Yankee. The leader of the pack is Whitey Ford with 236 wins, followed by Red Ruffing (231), Lefty Gomez (189), Ron Guidry (170), Bob Shawkey (168), Mel Stottlemyre (164), Herb Pennock (162), Waite Hoyt (157), Allie Reynolds (131), Andy Pettitte (128 coming into this season), Jack Chesbro (128), Vic Raschi (120), Eddie Lopat (113), Fritz Peterson and Spud Chandler (109).

In their 100 seasons, the Yankees have had 56 20-game winners, but only three in the last 10 years, five in the last 20, which leads us to our third hypothesis, the imminent extinction of the 300-game winner.

After Clemens, who?

Greg Maddux, with 273 wins coming into this season, but reduced to a six-inning pitcher at age 36 and his skills obviously diminished, has only an outside chance to reach 300. Tom Glavine, at 37 years of age, needs 55 wins. Randy Johnson, 39, needs 76 wins, David Cone, 40, needs 106, Mike Mussina, 34, needs 114.

Pedro Martinez was only halfway to 300 with 152 wins starting the season. Barry Zito, at age 24, would have to average 19 wins over the next 13 seasons to reach 300.

Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams, both with 232 home runs, and even Alfonso Soriano have to be considered better bets to reach 500 home runs than David Wells (188 wins), Mussina (186), and Pettitte (131) are to reach 300 wins.

Pitch counts, five-man rotations and the emergence of the relief pitcher (set-up men and closers) have all contributed to the imminent extinction of the 300-game winner.

In 2002, the Yankees had only nine complete games. They had 20 complete games in 1992, 24 in 1982, 35 in 1972, 33 in 1962, 72 in 1952, 88 in 1942, 95 in 1932, 98 in 1922.

In 2001, when he was 20-3, Clemens started 33 games and is the only 20-game winner in baseball history not to pitch a complete game. By comparison, when Ford was 24-7 in 1963, he started 37 games and completed 13. In 1949, Raschi, a 21-game winner, started 37 games and completed 21. Go back even farther. In 1904, pitching for the New York Highlanders, Chesbro pitched in 55 games, started 51, completed 48 and was 41-12.

So, think of Clemens, when he wins his 300th game, as an anachronism and the last of a dying breed. The changing face of baseball has made the 300-game winner, like the buffalo, the dodo bird and the two-hour baseball game, virtually extinct.

Former Yankees beat writer Phil Pepe is a regular contributor to YES Network Online.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/photos/clemens_inline_042303.jpg
Clemens will be the first pitcher to reach 300 wins since 1990.

Baseball Guru
04-29-2003, 07:45 PM
I think the only pitcher out of that group that will reach 300 is Maddux....

I would be shocked if he didnt do it...

If he pitches 3 more seasons (including this season), all he has to do is average 9 wins to reach 300.....

Greg Maddux, with 273 wins coming into this season, but reduced to a six-inning pitcher at age 36 and his skills obviously diminished, has only an outside chance to reach 300.

I disagree with the Author's statement that Maddux's skills are obviously declining....

Why??? Because his 1st 3 starts have sucked??? Well in 2 of his last 3 starts he has won and in the 2 wins he gave up a total of 1 earned run and 5 hits in 13 innings....Geez, give me a break......
Did something so drastic happen to a pitcher that won 16 games and had an era of 2.62??? That era btw, was the 2nd best in the NL.....

GiveHyzduashot
04-29-2003, 08:01 PM
To be fair to the writer, Maddux's ERA when he wrote the story was 7.52. At that point, Maddux had allowed 4 or more runs in all but 1 start and had only pitched into the seventh inning once. So yes, at that point, it appeared Maddux was clearly in decline from his earlier years. Now though, Maddux is righting the ship.

And, if you want to really get picky, Maddux's ERA could've been 8.27 with 5+ runs being surrendered in 3 or 4 starts .. reason being, he said Maddux was 36 ... his birthday is April 16, so if the writer did his homework, Maddux was 37 and not 36.

I do agree, though, that Maddux is a lock to win 300 games. There's no way he won't ... I think he'll get it next year.

I think Maddux and Clemens are the only locks to win 300 in this decade ... Johnson also could, but I don't think he can go 5 more years, which I think would be necessary for him to get to 300.

I could see Zito getting there ... and Pedro should too, if his arm holds up and he doesn't get frustrated with the game.

Special_K19
04-29-2003, 08:06 PM
I'm gonna throw out the name C.C. Sabathia, only because he is 22 years old, already has won 30 games and should be in the league pitching for 15 more seasons at least if he stays healthy.

Baseball Guru
04-29-2003, 08:20 PM
Originally posted by Special_K19
I'm gonna throw out the name C.C. Sabathia, only because he is 22 years old, already has won 30 games and should be in the league pitching for 15 more seasons at least if he stays healthy.

And if he can stay under 350 lbs;)

Special_K19
04-29-2003, 09:02 PM
I don't think it was ever that high, 320 maybe. But from what other players have said about his mom's cooking you really can't blame him for being a hefty guy.

Baseball Guru
04-29-2003, 09:17 PM
LoL...I know it was never that high but he is a little porker this season....Of course it just may be baby fat:D