Tigers#1
05-13-2003, 05:08 PM
Tough choice is right choice for Royals
May 13, 2003
The Royals' direction would be so much clearer if they just plain stunk. GM Allard Baird would trade center fielder Carlos Beltran, the youth movement would be accelerated, and the team might be interesting by, oh, 2005.
That plan still makes the most sense, but suddenly there's a twist: The Royals might contend all season in the weak American League Central. Trading Beltran is the best way for Baird to acquire young position players to develop in unison with his young pitchers. But even tight-fisted owner David Glass is excited by the team's fast start.
Rather than move Beltran, who can become free agent after next season, the Royals might even go the other way, fortifying themselves for -- ahem -- a pennant race.
"With where our payroll is right now, we'll lose money," Glass says, referring to the Royals' opening day figure of $40.5 million. "But I am so obsessed with winning in this market, if we remain in contention and the opportunity is there for us to help ourselves, we certainly would step up and do it."
Chances are, the Royals will turn back into the Royals and stage their anticipated dumpfest before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. But the alternative view is this: The Twins and White Sox aren't that good. Eighty-five wins might take the division. The Royals might as well keep Beltran, because they can't get what they want for him, anyway.
"This is their window," one GM says. "They almost need to go for it now."
Almost.
The Royals' rotation is too inexperienced for the team to remain in contention. Beltran's value diminishes each day he gets closer to leaving as a free agent. Heck, even if the Royals somehow won the division, what would be the point? They probably would get crushed in the playoffs, then lose third baseman Joe Randa and left fielder Raul Ibanez as free agents.
"It does no good to win this year and then dismantle it," one executive says. "Then you've just teased the fans."
To achieve lasting success, the Royals' only option is to add to their young core and stick to their original plan. "If there's one team that we're trying to mirror, it's the Minnesota Twins," Baird says. "They basically started here" -- Baird holds his hand down -- "and had everyone come up at the same time."
The problem is, the Royals began the week in first place after losing 100 games last season. They've already cut their '02 payroll by nearly $7 million, and Baird still needs to trim perhaps another $3 million. Yet, Glass wants to win. And his best player is Beltran.
One of the more amazing things about the Royals' start is that Beltran appeared in 18 of their first 34 games because of injuries and entered the week batting.235. Beltran, however, is a switch-hitter with power and speed, entirely capable of getting hot and carrying a team for a prolonged stretch.
Which would only complicate matters.
Beltran, 26, rejected a three-year, $25 million offer from the Royals last winter, and his agent, Scott Boras, always seeks market value. The Royals all but concede that they cannot keep Beltran, and they would receive only draft-pick compensation if he left as a free agent.
The case for keeping Beltran is that winning could benefit the Royals' bottom line even more than cutting payroll. Attendance would spike, enabling the team to afford the increase in Beltran's salary from $6 million to a potential $7.5 million next season and perhaps keep Ibanez, whom Baird describes as "a damn good hitter."
The A's seldom trade potential free agents, such as Miguel Tejada, and the Royals received too little in return when they dealt Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. And the depressed baseball economy is limiting the market for Beltran. Teams no longer are willing to absorb high salaries and part with top prospects in trades.
"If we don't get value, we'll keep him and let him walk," Glass says. "He's too good a player. We're not going to give him away."
OK, but where would that leave the Royals in '05?
First baseman Mike Sweeney would be entering the third year of a five-year deal, and Ibanez also might be signed long-term. But the Royals likely would have holes at third base, catcher and the outfield, positions they want to address in a Beltran trade. And the salaries of their young players would begin to skyrocket as they became eligible for arbitration.
The development of such prospects as pitcher Zack Greinke, outfielder Alexis Gomez and second baseman Ruben Gotay could help balance the payroll, but acquiring high-quality young players for Beltran would put the team in an even stronger position. Such a deal is still possible if Beltran gets hot and a high-revenue team decides he's their missing link. But if Beltran is hot, the Royals likely will be hot, increasing the public-relations gamble.
For now, all the Royals can do is allow their season to unfold. If they fall out of contention, their decision on Beltran will be simple. But even if they stay in the race, the best thing they can do is trade Beltran for a better future. Their goal should be to produce as many winning seasons as possible, not just one.
May 13, 2003
The Royals' direction would be so much clearer if they just plain stunk. GM Allard Baird would trade center fielder Carlos Beltran, the youth movement would be accelerated, and the team might be interesting by, oh, 2005.
That plan still makes the most sense, but suddenly there's a twist: The Royals might contend all season in the weak American League Central. Trading Beltran is the best way for Baird to acquire young position players to develop in unison with his young pitchers. But even tight-fisted owner David Glass is excited by the team's fast start.
Rather than move Beltran, who can become free agent after next season, the Royals might even go the other way, fortifying themselves for -- ahem -- a pennant race.
"With where our payroll is right now, we'll lose money," Glass says, referring to the Royals' opening day figure of $40.5 million. "But I am so obsessed with winning in this market, if we remain in contention and the opportunity is there for us to help ourselves, we certainly would step up and do it."
Chances are, the Royals will turn back into the Royals and stage their anticipated dumpfest before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. But the alternative view is this: The Twins and White Sox aren't that good. Eighty-five wins might take the division. The Royals might as well keep Beltran, because they can't get what they want for him, anyway.
"This is their window," one GM says. "They almost need to go for it now."
Almost.
The Royals' rotation is too inexperienced for the team to remain in contention. Beltran's value diminishes each day he gets closer to leaving as a free agent. Heck, even if the Royals somehow won the division, what would be the point? They probably would get crushed in the playoffs, then lose third baseman Joe Randa and left fielder Raul Ibanez as free agents.
"It does no good to win this year and then dismantle it," one executive says. "Then you've just teased the fans."
To achieve lasting success, the Royals' only option is to add to their young core and stick to their original plan. "If there's one team that we're trying to mirror, it's the Minnesota Twins," Baird says. "They basically started here" -- Baird holds his hand down -- "and had everyone come up at the same time."
The problem is, the Royals began the week in first place after losing 100 games last season. They've already cut their '02 payroll by nearly $7 million, and Baird still needs to trim perhaps another $3 million. Yet, Glass wants to win. And his best player is Beltran.
One of the more amazing things about the Royals' start is that Beltran appeared in 18 of their first 34 games because of injuries and entered the week batting.235. Beltran, however, is a switch-hitter with power and speed, entirely capable of getting hot and carrying a team for a prolonged stretch.
Which would only complicate matters.
Beltran, 26, rejected a three-year, $25 million offer from the Royals last winter, and his agent, Scott Boras, always seeks market value. The Royals all but concede that they cannot keep Beltran, and they would receive only draft-pick compensation if he left as a free agent.
The case for keeping Beltran is that winning could benefit the Royals' bottom line even more than cutting payroll. Attendance would spike, enabling the team to afford the increase in Beltran's salary from $6 million to a potential $7.5 million next season and perhaps keep Ibanez, whom Baird describes as "a damn good hitter."
The A's seldom trade potential free agents, such as Miguel Tejada, and the Royals received too little in return when they dealt Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. And the depressed baseball economy is limiting the market for Beltran. Teams no longer are willing to absorb high salaries and part with top prospects in trades.
"If we don't get value, we'll keep him and let him walk," Glass says. "He's too good a player. We're not going to give him away."
OK, but where would that leave the Royals in '05?
First baseman Mike Sweeney would be entering the third year of a five-year deal, and Ibanez also might be signed long-term. But the Royals likely would have holes at third base, catcher and the outfield, positions they want to address in a Beltran trade. And the salaries of their young players would begin to skyrocket as they became eligible for arbitration.
The development of such prospects as pitcher Zack Greinke, outfielder Alexis Gomez and second baseman Ruben Gotay could help balance the payroll, but acquiring high-quality young players for Beltran would put the team in an even stronger position. Such a deal is still possible if Beltran gets hot and a high-revenue team decides he's their missing link. But if Beltran is hot, the Royals likely will be hot, increasing the public-relations gamble.
For now, all the Royals can do is allow their season to unfold. If they fall out of contention, their decision on Beltran will be simple. But even if they stay in the race, the best thing they can do is trade Beltran for a better future. Their goal should be to produce as many winning seasons as possible, not just one.