Just a thought

[Fragmentsofme]

I'm borrowing this thread from another forum, I thought it an interesting point of view and wanted to see your thoughts
It is said that pitchers can't be MVP because they go out only every 5th day. I thought that makes sence until this moment. But 200 innings is really 600 AB in which the batter makes an out. Jason Schmidt, for example, is on pace to have hitters make 645 outs against him. 600 PA's or AB's is enough for a hitter to be a serious candidate for MVP if he has the numbers in average, hr, wutever. Thus why can't a pitcher be on an equal footing with a hitter in the MVP race. Do you people see my logic? Is there a hole in it? Please reply

Here's the link-> http://forums.netsports.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27755

[PissedPrincess]

I am biased, but I think pitchers absolutely can be MVP's.

Pedro should have been in 99.:angry:

[Baseball Guru]

Well it's not called the Most Valuable Hitter award it the Most Valuable Player award so if that player happens to be a pitcher, so be it IMO....

[SportsFiends]

How do you evaluate a pitcher for the MVP?

This is a small part of an article published on Wednesday, August 27, 2003 on my website, so the stats are a bit outdated and Smoltz is now injured, but you can get the point. You can read the entire article by clicking here (http://www.sportsfiends.com/newsmanager/templates/t_mlb.asp?articleid=124)

A lot of people believe that pitchers already have an award (the Cy Young) and shouldn't have a chance at the MVP. But in today's pitching depleted game, scores are through the roof, and the scoreboard often looks like a football game instead of a baseball game. In the seven days from August 19 to August 25, 46 of 95 MLB games had at least one team score a touchdown or more. That's 48.8% of games played in the last week with a minimum of seven runs for a single team!

Pitching is everything in baseball and should be, at the least, considered in the MVP balloting. Pitchers, however, can't be just compared against batters, but also against each other. What is worth more, a win or a save? And, where does ERA and WHIP come into the picture?

In the NL this year, let us compare two starting pitchers with an outside chance at a top-five finish in the MVP balloting. Dodger Kevin Brown leads the League with a 2.15 ERA but has a 12-7 record. Atlanta Brave Russ Ortiz leads the League in wins with an 18-5 record, but has an ERA of 3.56. A quick look at those players would probably tell you that Ortiz should get more votes than Brown, but let's look a little deeper. In five of Kevin Brown's seven losses, the Dodgers have scored one run or less, not to mention that the bullpen has blown two saves costing him two additional wins. For Ortiz, his team hasn't blown a save for him all season and have scored one run or less in two of his five losses. Brown has struck out 151 hitters in 172 innings, while walking just 41. Ortiz has struck out 121 hitters in 179 1/3 innings, while walking 83. Brown has also received an average of only 4.08 runs of support a game, compared to Ortiz's 6.72 runs of support a game. Below is how they break down in table format:

Player W L ERA BS IP SO BB WHIP RS Team <1 Run
Brown 12 7 2.15 2 172 151 41 1.13 4.08 5 of 7 L
Ortiz 18 5 3.56 0 179.1 121 83 1.29 6.72 2 of 5 L


If we looked at the money stats, like wins and losses, we would have thought that Russ was the man. But, when you look at all the stats, you see that Brown has put together a much better overall season. The displeasure of poor run support and a little bad luck explain the difference in the money stats.

So we come back to our question of how we should evaluate a pitcher, and I say you need to look at the whole picture and not just get caught up in the money stats hype. Kevin Brown has been a better pitcher in 2003 than Russ Ortiz but his record doesn’t reflect it, does than mean that Brown’s value is any less to his team than Ortiz’s? The answer is an emphatic no. Quality starts are more important than the overall win-loss record because they are a true measure of whether a pitcher gives their team a chance to win.

What about closers? Is the save an overrated statistic? Dennis Eckersley won the AL MVP award in 1992 and was the last reliever (or pitcher) to do so. He went 7-1 with 51 saves, a 1.91 ERA, and 93 strikeouts in 80 innings. While saves may be an overused statistic to evaluate a pitcher's performance, Boston's failed attempts at bullpen-by-committee this season demonstrates that it still takes the right pitcher to get the job done in the late innings. Compare Eckersley's 1992 MVP season to two other great seasons:

Player W L S ERA BS IP SO BB WHIP MVP Vote
Eck 7 1 51 1.91 ?? 80 93 11 0.91 1st
P#2 3 2 55 3.25 4 80.1 85 24 1.03 8th
P#3* 0 2 44 0.89 3 61 67 8 0.87 ??
* Season still in progress

If you compare Eckersley to P#2, it really makes him look like a great pitcher, even though he had four less saves. P#2, as I’m sure you know, was John Smoltz in 2002, a season that many thought was deserving of some award. However, Smoltz came in 8th in the MVP balloting, 3rd in the Cy Young, and snuck past Eric Gagne to win the NL Rolaids Relief Man Award (a lesser honor for sure). Now let's compare Eckersley to P#3. P#3 is on pace to have a season that looks like this:

Player W L S ERA BS IP SO BB WHIP MVP Vote
P#3* 0 2 56 0.89 4 76 83 10 0.87 ??
Eck 7 1 51 1.91 ?? 80 93 11 0.91 1st
* Projected totals

Yes, in case you haven't already figured it out, P#3 is John Smoltz in 2003. If I had to choose between them, I would have take the 2003 Smoltz over the 1992 Eckersley (albeit, it is close); but, I seriously doubt that Smoltz will finish in the top five in the NL MVP voting. Most likely, Russ Ortiz will finish in front of him as Randy Johnson (came in 7th) did in 2002 when he went 24-5 with a 2.32 ERA with 334 strikeouts.

Let's face it; while closing games out is an important ability, it pales in comparison to keeping your team in a game for six or seven innings. If the starting pitching is so awful that your offense can't get you to your closer with a lead, then your closer is irrelevant. For a relief pitcher to ever win the MVP award again, it should take an extraordinary season that either pushes them to about the 60+ save plateau or they go the entire season (70-80 innings) with out giving up and earned run.

If you want to read this entire article and see the stats in a table format that makes a little more sense click here http://www.sportsfiends.com/newsmanager/templates/t_mlb.asp?articleid=124
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[Fragmentsofme]

Great post, but if you're saying anything about brown, then you have to throw in Nomo, who in his 10 losses, the Dodgers have scored a total of 11 runs.