Addicts Road Show: Offensive Sabermetrics

[barzilla]

Much like our hometown the Astros, the Phillies finished within an eyelash of the playoffs. So our first task is to determine what went wrong in 2003 before we can move onto 2004 and its many possibilities. So we will look at the regular lineup, starting rotation, and major players in the bullpen.

Before we move let me introduce a quick glossary of terms before he dive in. Some of you that have read some of my stuff will be familiar with these, but for those who haven’t here is a quick tutorial.

Hitting

OPS- This is on base percentage plus slugging percentage. The norm depends on the position. Most middle infielders/catchers are doing good to be at 750 and above while the corner infield slots and the outfield should really be above 800 to be effective. Even in today’s offensive barrage, few players reach 1000.

OBIP- This is on base percentage plus isolated power. Isolated power takes slugging percentage and subtracts batting average from that total because slugging percentage partially encompasses batting average. The two numbers together gives a dynamic picture of the player. Anything above 500 is considered good.

RCON- This stands for runs contributed. It takes a player's runs and RBIs and then subtracts home runs because they count for both.

Pitching

BR/9- This is the average number of base runners that reach base per nine innings

SO/9- the number of strikeouts per nine innings

IPS- Innings per start

HR/9- Home runs per nine innings

Okay, that should bring us up to speed. Here we go:

Offense

PLAYERS. . . . . . . . .OPS . . .OBIP. . .RCON . . .2003 Salary
C .Mike Lieberthal . . .825 . . .513 . . . 136 . . . 7.25
1B.Jim Thome . . . . . .958 . . .692 . . . 197 . . .11.17
2B.David Bell. . . . . .579 . . .384 . . . .65 . . . 3.20
3B.Placido Polanco . . .799 . . .508 . . . 136 . . . 2.88
SS.Jimmy Rollins . . . .707 . . .444 . . . 139 . . . 0.45
LF.Pat Burrell . . . . .713 . . .504 . . . 100 . . . 1.25
CF.Marlon Byrd . . . . .784 . . .481 . . . 124 . . . 0.30
RF.Bob Abreu . . . . . .877 . . .577 . . . 180 . . . 9.10

In reality, the big name players really performed well. Thome and Abreu did their thing and they will continue to do their thing. Everyone seemed up and arms over Pat Burrell, but he really didn’t perform as badly as his batting average indicated. Can he do better? Absolutely. Phillie fans simply need to lay off of him for a while. The more pressing questions will be Marlon Byrd and Jimmy Rollins. They are fine for now, but they cannot afford to pay those two big bucks for what they are bringing to the table, so the two must improve or be replaced. However, most Phillie fans focused on these two players.


Pat Burrell. .OBP . . .SLG . . .OBIP
2001 . . . . .346 . . .469 . . .567
2002 . . . . .376 . . .544 . . .638
2003 . . . . .309 . . .404 . . .504

In 2004 we can probably expect an average of the three, and that would put his numbers in the neighborhood of his 2001 season. That wouldn’t be bad at all.


David Bell . .OBP . . .SLG . . .OBIP
2001 . . . . .303 . . .415 . . .458
2002 . . . . .333 . . .429 . . .501
2003 . . . . .296 . . .283 . . .384

The good news is that Bell couldn’t be as bad as he was in 2003, but the bad news is that he was never really that good. Ed Wade must have been caught up in the moment when he signed him. Bell should probably be the first infielder off the bench in 2004 if the team is going to grow offensively.

One of the ways I evaluate a general manager is to look at his attention to OBP. OBP is the offensive Holy Grail. The correlation between OBP and runs scored is stronger than with any other single statistic. Let’s see how the Phillies do (career averages):


PLAYERS . . . . . . . . .OBP
.C Mike Lieberthal. . . .340
1B Jim Thome. . . . . . .411
2B David Bell . . . . . .312
3B Placido Polanco. . . .337
SS Jimmy Rollins. . . . .317
LF Pat Burrell. . . . . .348
CF Marlon Byrd. . . . . .359
RF Bob Abreu. . . . . . .409

This isn’t nearly as bad as most teams, but when you consider that Rollins and Bell were hitting first and second at least in part of the season you can see why the offense bogged down some. I’m hearing rumors that the Phillies are interested in Tejada. Tejada isn’t exactly a high OBP guy, so I wouldn’t commit huge money to him, but he would be an improvement over Rollins.

[barzilla]

Pitching

For pitchers, the game is exactly the same as it is for hitters. We can predict how well a pitcher will or will not do based on the number of base runners he allows. However, some sabermetricians have questioned a pitcher’s ability to control the number of hits he allows after the ball is put into play, so we will focus on walks for the time being. We will look at strikeouts as well because they are a decent judge at how hittable or unhittable a pitcher can be. First, last year’s starters:


PITCHER . . . . . . .GS . .INN . . SO/BB. . . HRA. . SALARY
Kevin Millwood. . . .35 . .222 . . 169/68 . . 19 . . 9.90
Vicente Padilla . . .32 . .208 . . 133/62 . . 22 . . 0.43
Randy Wolf. . . . . .33 . .200 . . 177/78 . . 27 . . 2.38
Brett Myers . . . . .32 . .193 . . 143/76 . . 20 . . 0.30
Brandon Duckworth . .18 . . 93 . . 68/44 . . 12 . . 0.32

The Phillies had three more pitchers with 200 innings than the Astros did in 2003. More importantly, two of their solid performers made less than one million dollars. Padilla and Myers will be fun to deal with when arbitration hits. I don’t think anyone will miss Brandon Duckworth. The question facing the Phillies is whether to keep Millwood or go with another star pitcher. In addition to the major free agents (including Millwood) we will include Curt Schilling and Javier Vazquez because their names have been connected to the Phillies. Here is what they have done over the last three seasons:


PITCHER . . . . GS . .INN . . IPS . . ERA . . BR/9 . . SO/9 . . HR/9
C.Schilling . . 94 . .684 . . 7.28. . 3.07. . 9.25 . . 10.57. . 0.96
G.Maddux. . . .104 . .650 . . 6.26. . 3.22. .10.29 . . .5.74. . 0.80
J.Vazquez . . .100 . .684 . . 6.84. . 3.52. .10.35 . . .8.26. . 1.05
K.Millwood. . . 90 . .560 . . 6.22. . 3.78. .11.09 . . .6.93. . 0.88
B.Colon . . . .101 . .697 . . 6.91. . 3.62. .11.47 . . .6.75. . 0.98
A.Pettitte. . . 85 . .543 . . 6.40. . 3.82. .11.89 . . .7.30. . 0.68
S.Ponson. . . . 82 . .530 . . 6.47. . 4.17. .11.96 . . .5.74. . 1.07

A trade for Vazquez or Schilling would be a significant upgrade for the Phillies. However, there really isn’t a free agent out there that is as good as Millwood. Maddux is probably not as good as his numbers show here. Every year he gets a year older and not a year better. Millwood is too inconsistent to be a highly paid top of the rotation starter.

Now for the bullpen:



RELIEVER . . . . .G. . .INN . . .SO/BB . . .HR . . Salary
CL Jose Mesa . . .61 . . 58 . . .45/31 . . . 7 . . 5.20
SU Mike Williams .28 . . 25 . . .19/19 . . . 0 . . 3.50
LHS Rheal Cormier.65 . . 84 . . .67/25 . . . 4 . . 2.98
MR Terry Adams . .66 . . 68 . . .57/23 . . . 1 . . 2.90
MR Turk Wendell. .56 . . 64 . . .27/28 . . . 6 . . 3.35
LR Carlos Silva. .62 . . 87 . . .48/37 . . . 7 . . 0.31

The Phillies did not get good production out of a bullpen that was highest paid in baseball. The problem was on top of the pen with Jose Mesa and Mike Williams. Both will be gone. As everyone knows, Billy Wagner will be the new closer. Just how good is Wagner in comparison with the other great relievers


RELIEVER . . . G . . .INN . . .ERA . . .BR/9 . . .SO/9 . . HR/9
M.Rivera . . .180. . .197 . . .2.19. . .8.67 . . .8.53 . . 0.50
R.Nen. . . . .215. . .217 . . .2.28. . .9.11 . . 11.02 . . 0.50
B.Wagner . . .212. . .223 . . .2.33. . .8.53 . . 10.94 . . 0.80
O.Dotel. . . .220. . .289 . . .2.33. . .9.18 . . 11.20 . . 0.65
K.Foulke . . .209. . .245 . . .2.42. . .8.58 . . .8.11 . . 0.73
T.Percival . .167. . .163 . . .2.64. . .9.70 . . 10.30 . . 0.83
T.Hoffman. . .132. . .128 . . .3.01. . 10.42 . . 10.00 . . 0.91
E.Gagne. . . .187. . .316 . . .3.10. . .9.05 . . 10.83 . . 0.91
E.Guardado . .201. . .199 . . .3.11. . .9.24 . . .8.83 . . 0.95
U.Urbina . . .197. . .203 . . .3.14. . 10.30 . . 10.52 . . 1.10


Obviously, Wagner was the best available relief pitcher. With Robb Nen coming off of a major arm injury you almost would have to put Wagner second behind Rivera. Ironically, the Astros don’t lose a great deal and might even be gaining some when you look at strikeouts per nine innings and home runs per nine innings. When we compare Wagner with Jose Mesa we find there is no contest.

The rest of the bullpen appears to be good with the exception of Mike Williams. Williams and Mesa will obviously be gone, but the rest might be able to forge a decent pen with Wagner as the closer.

[barzilla]

New Ballpark

The last question people may ask is what effect the new park will have on the Phillies 2004 season. Let’s consider the seasons had by others who have opened new parks in the last fifteen years.


TEAMS . . . . . . . . .Before. . .After. . .Difference
Baltimore Orioles . . .67-95 . . .89-73. . .+22
Cleveland Indians . . .76-86 . . .94-68. . .+18
San Francisco Giants. .86-76 . . .97-65. . .+11
Detroit Tigers. . . . .69-92 . . .79-83. . .+10
Seattle Mariners. . . .76-85 . . .79-83. . .+ 4
Milwaukee Brewers . . .73-89 . . .68-94. . .- 6
Chicago White Sox . . .94-68 . . .87-75. . .- 7
Pittsburgh Pirates. . .69-93 . . .62-100 . .- 7
Cincinnati Reds . . . .78-84 . . .69-93. . .- 9
Texas Rangers . . . . .86-76 . . .74-88. . .-12
Houston Astros. . . . .97-65 . . .72-90. . .-25
COMPOSITE . . . . . . .79-83 . . .79-83. . . 0

As we can see, moving into a new ballpark is a mixed bag, it all depends on what kind of team you have and the demands of the new stadium. The dimensions in the new facility are fairly similar to Veterans Stadium, but the sight lines will be different so we will have to wait and see how it goes. However, the evidence shows we can’t necessarily predict any additional success for the Phillies based on the change of ballparks.

[PopTop]

'Zilla, since I'm the one who messed it up to begin with, the edit marks above were to correct the alignment.

I never stopped to think how much worse Houston's record was from 1999 (the last year at the Astrodome) to 2000 (first year of Arthur Andersen Memorial Std) ... Heavens to Betsy! A full 25 games! ... P-U!

One more ballpark effect to think about is any possible difference in the foul grounds ... You definitely had more space in the Astrodome to catch a foul pop than you do at the new downtown stadium ... Obviously, having less space for a fielder to catch a pop in will benefit the hitters ... Anybody out there know if the foul area will change drastically from Veteran's Std to the new park?

[barzilla]

Ballparks.com has all of the dimensions, but I don't remember any dimensions for foul territory. We can only assume that there will be less foul ground because the trend has been to move the fans closer to the action in these new stadiums. We could see an offensive spike in the new ballpark because of it, but it looks like the dimensions will favor the pitchers somewhat. I'm guessing it will be a neutral stadium, but we don't know about factors like wind, hitting background, ect.

[SlushyBOB]

Kudos Barzilla. I'm always impressed with your analysis of teams. If you get the time I'd love for you to do the same for my injury ridden Angels!

[barzilla]

I think the Angels might be on the Roadshow schedule. Poptop has the tour dates. I think we're going to try to stay together as much as possible to get the history/statistics ironed out. Thanks for the good words and feel free to stick around and get this ship off the ground. We will do the same with each spot on the tour.