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12-09-2003, 12:57 AM
By Jim Callis
November 26, 2003
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Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
Scouting reports for prospects 2-10 (Subscribers only) -- Click Here to Subscribe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chat Transcript: Jim Callis took your
questions on the Cubs system Pre-Order the 2004 Prospect Handbook
for 30 scouting reports on every team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Cubs were five outs away from making their first trip to the World Series in 58 years. They couldn’t close the deal, but that shouldn’t tarnish the club’s unexpected National League Central title or bright future.
Chicago hasn’t had consecutive winning seasons since a six-year run from 1967-72 under Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher. Under Dusty Baker, their best skipper since Durocher, the Cubs improved by 21 games in 2003. They should eclipse the one-hit wonders of 1984, ’89 and ’98, playoff teams that declined by an average of 19 wins the following year.
A big reason is that no team can match Chicago’s collection of young pitching, which is primarily homegrown. Co-aces Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were first-round picks, while Carlos Zambrano is the biggest jewel the Cubs have mined out of their recently successful Latin American program.
There’s plenty more pitching on the way. Venezuelan righthander Angel Guzman was on the verge of a big league callup before tearing his labrum in July. The Cubs stocked up on arms in the 2001 draft, getting Prior second overall and towering lefthander Andy Sisco one round later, and again in 2002, when they grabbed lefties Justin Jones and Luke Hagerty and righties Bobby Brownlie, Chadd Blasko and Billy Petrick in the first three rounds.
Chicago has so many pitching prospects that it doesn’t have enough minor league rotation spots to accommodate them all. There also aren’t many vacancies on the big league staff, so many of the up-and-coming pitchers could become trade bait. They can address the system’s main shortcoming as of late: producing big league hitters.
The Cubs didn’t develop any of the 10 position players who started a postseason game for them. Center fielder Corey Patterson showed significant improvement in 2003, but tore up his knee in July. First baseman Hee Seop Choi showed off slugging prowess before sustaining a concussion in June, and didn’t hit afterward.
The Cubs envision Ryan Harvey and Felix Pie eventually joining Patterson in their outfield and the core of their lineup, but both are teenagers and a few years away from Wrigley Field. Infielder Brendan Harris and outfielders David Kelton and Jason Dubois are the hitters closest to the majors, but they’re not ready for starting jobs.
With pitching prospects and payroll to spare, Chicago is in a position to add talent this offseason and emerge as a perennial contender in the NL. Every other club in the division is either aging and pushing the envelope on its budget (Houston, St. Louis) or in the midst of a long-term rebuilding project (Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh).
The Cubs also are in the good hands of general manager Jim Hendry, who demonstrated a keen eye for talent when he was the team’s farm and scouting director. In his first full season as GM, he hired the right manager and made the right trades to bring his team to the postseason. Now the challenge is to return, and Hendry and his team appear up to it.
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Top Prospect: Angel Guzman, RHP
Age: 22 Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: Venezuela, 1999
Signed by: Hector Ortega
Background: The Cubs thought Guzman was ready to make a Mark Prior-like ascent in 2003, beginning the season in Double-A West Tenn and getting to the majors by midseason. If Chicago didn’t have so much pitching, he could have pressed for a big league job. Guzman led the Cubs with a 1.13 ERA in the Cactus League, and his teammates voted him the most impressive rookie in big league camp. He caught fire in late May, going 3-1, 1.01 over his next five starts. After shutting out eventual Southern League champion Carolina for seven innings on June 20, Guzman was picked to pitch in the Futures Game and would have been the logical callup when Prior hurt his shoulder in mid-July. But Guzman never threw another pitch in 2003, as his shoulder was bothering him. Doctors diagnosed a slight tear in his labrum, and he had it corrected with arthroscopic surgery. The Cubs added him to the 40-man roster for the first time in October. His brother Daniel pitches in the Indians system.
Strengths: Guzman has enjoyed nothing but success since the Cubs gave him a second chance. The Royals originally signed him for $5,500 but voided his contact after he failed his physical. After landing with Chicago for $30,000, he has gone 24-9, 2.33. Guzman’s fastball and changeup are the best in the Cubs system, and his curveball ranks near the top. When they’re on, they’re each 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. Notable for both its velocity (91-96 mph) and explosive sink, his fastball may be the best of his offerings. His development accelerated in 2002 when he regained the curve he flashed when he signed. Managers rated Guzman’s command the best in the Southern League, and he not only throws strikes but also keeps the ball down in the zone. He has permitted just one homer per 23.7 innings as a pro. He shows a lot of athleticism and poise on the mound.
Weaknesses: Guzman’s mechanics and easy delivery augured well for his health—before his shoulder injury. Now the Cubs are holding their breath and hoping he comes back with the stuff he had before he was sidelined. His rehabilitation was going well at the Cubs’ spring-training base in Mesa, Ariz., but they won’t know for sure until he takes the mound in a game situation. He also had a stress fracture in his elbow during his first pro season in 2000. Guzman’s physical condition is the only concern at this point. He was ready for the major leagues when he got hurt.
The Future: The Cubs are going to take things slowly with Guzman’s valuable right arm. He’ll be back in big league camp next spring, but he may not make his 2004 debut until May. He likely will return to Double-A to begin his comeback. Guzman has the stuff of a No. 1 starter, though he may never rise above No. 3 if Prior and Kerry Wood stay in Chicago.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
West Tenn (AA) 3-3 0 2.81 15 15 89.2 83 30 28 26 87 .249
2. Justin Jones, lhp
Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 195.
Drafted: HS—Virginia Beach, 2002 (2nd round).
Signed by: Billy Swoope.
Background: Jones looked like a possible first-round pick early in 2002 but didn’t pitch well in front of crosscheckers, so the Cubs were able to grab him in the second. They planned on pitching him at short-season Boise in 2003 before injuries created an opening at low Class A Lansing. Jones excelled as one of the youngest pitchers in the Midwest League.
Strengths: Jones’ 89-94 mph fastball and his curveball are both plus pitches. With his age and frame, he projects to add velocity. His changeup is advanced for his age, as is most of his package. He also throws an occasional splitter. Lefties went 5-for-58 (.086) with no extra-base hits against him in 2003.
Weaknesses: Like several of Chicago’s top pitching prospects, Jones didn’t make it through the full season. He was shut down twice with a tired arm and didn’t pitch after Aug. 5. He didn’t need surgery but needs to get stronger. His command can get better.
The Future: The Cubs have sought a good lefty starter for years, and Jones will race Andy Sisco and Luke Hagerty to Wrigley Field. Jones should be 100 percent for spring training and will spend 2004 at high Class A Daytona.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lansing (Lo A) 3-5 0 2.28 16 16 71.0 59 29 18 32 87 .215
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3. Ryan Harvey, of
Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 192.
Drafted: HS—Dunedin, Fla., 2003 (1st round).
Signed by: Rolando Pino.
Background: Seven months after blowing out his right knee in an outfield collision at a high school showcase, Harvey was a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2003 draft. The Cubs ranked him third on their draft board and were elated to get him with the sixth pick. Though he signed quickly for $2.4 million, the team had him focus on rehabbing his knee until the final two weeks of the season.
Strengths: Scouts compare Harvey to Dale Murphy. Harvey has huge power, as well as the strongest outfield arm and the best power/speed combination in the system. He threw 90-93 mph off the mound before giving up pitching in the wake of his injury.
Weaknesses: Harvey hasn’t quite regained his 6.7-second speed in the 60-yard dash. His rust also showed at the plate in the Rookie-level Arizona League. His swing can get long at times and he’ll have to keep it shorter with wood bats.
The Future: The last Cubs outfield prospect with this much promise was Corey Patterson. They rushed Patterson and vow not to do the same with Harvey. Sammy Sosa’s eventual successor may begin 2004 in extended spring training before heading to Boise.
TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
AZL Cubs (R) 14 51 9 12 3 2 1 7 6 21 0 .235 .339 .431
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4. Andy Sisco, lhp
Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-9. Wt.: 265.
Drafted: HS—Sammamish, Wash., 2001 (2nd round).
Signed by: Al Geddes.
Background: After snaring Mark Prior with the No. 2 overall pick in 2001, the Cubs followed up with another potential ace in Sisco in the second round. Recruited as a defensive end by Pacific-10 Conference football programs, he signed for $1 million. He missed two months with a broken pitching hand in 2003, but finished strong by not allowing an earned run in two starts as Lansing won the Midwest League playoffs.
Strengths: Sisco is a huge lefthander who already throws 92-94 mph and projects to add more heat, so he draws obvious comparisons to Randy Johnson. And while he has to polish the rest of his game, he has better mechanics and command than the Big Unit had at the same age. Sisco already has an effective changeup and at times shows a plus curveball.
Weaknesses: Sisco’s curve is far from a finished product, as one in four he throws is above-average. He’d be better off throwing fewer splitters and focusing on his other pitches. The Cubs like his competitive makeup, but he also can be immature.
The Future: Once he masters his curveball, Sisco will take off. The Cubs will keep him and Jones together again in 2004 in high Class A.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lansing (Lo A) 6-8 0 3.54 19 19 94.0 76 44 37 31 99 .220
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November 26, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
Scouting reports for prospects 2-10 (Subscribers only) -- Click Here to Subscribe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chat Transcript: Jim Callis took your
questions on the Cubs system Pre-Order the 2004 Prospect Handbook
for 30 scouting reports on every team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Cubs were five outs away from making their first trip to the World Series in 58 years. They couldn’t close the deal, but that shouldn’t tarnish the club’s unexpected National League Central title or bright future.
Chicago hasn’t had consecutive winning seasons since a six-year run from 1967-72 under Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher. Under Dusty Baker, their best skipper since Durocher, the Cubs improved by 21 games in 2003. They should eclipse the one-hit wonders of 1984, ’89 and ’98, playoff teams that declined by an average of 19 wins the following year.
A big reason is that no team can match Chicago’s collection of young pitching, which is primarily homegrown. Co-aces Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were first-round picks, while Carlos Zambrano is the biggest jewel the Cubs have mined out of their recently successful Latin American program.
There’s plenty more pitching on the way. Venezuelan righthander Angel Guzman was on the verge of a big league callup before tearing his labrum in July. The Cubs stocked up on arms in the 2001 draft, getting Prior second overall and towering lefthander Andy Sisco one round later, and again in 2002, when they grabbed lefties Justin Jones and Luke Hagerty and righties Bobby Brownlie, Chadd Blasko and Billy Petrick in the first three rounds.
Chicago has so many pitching prospects that it doesn’t have enough minor league rotation spots to accommodate them all. There also aren’t many vacancies on the big league staff, so many of the up-and-coming pitchers could become trade bait. They can address the system’s main shortcoming as of late: producing big league hitters.
The Cubs didn’t develop any of the 10 position players who started a postseason game for them. Center fielder Corey Patterson showed significant improvement in 2003, but tore up his knee in July. First baseman Hee Seop Choi showed off slugging prowess before sustaining a concussion in June, and didn’t hit afterward.
The Cubs envision Ryan Harvey and Felix Pie eventually joining Patterson in their outfield and the core of their lineup, but both are teenagers and a few years away from Wrigley Field. Infielder Brendan Harris and outfielders David Kelton and Jason Dubois are the hitters closest to the majors, but they’re not ready for starting jobs.
With pitching prospects and payroll to spare, Chicago is in a position to add talent this offseason and emerge as a perennial contender in the NL. Every other club in the division is either aging and pushing the envelope on its budget (Houston, St. Louis) or in the midst of a long-term rebuilding project (Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh).
The Cubs also are in the good hands of general manager Jim Hendry, who demonstrated a keen eye for talent when he was the team’s farm and scouting director. In his first full season as GM, he hired the right manager and made the right trades to bring his team to the postseason. Now the challenge is to return, and Hendry and his team appear up to it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Prospect: Angel Guzman, RHP
Age: 22 Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: Venezuela, 1999
Signed by: Hector Ortega
Background: The Cubs thought Guzman was ready to make a Mark Prior-like ascent in 2003, beginning the season in Double-A West Tenn and getting to the majors by midseason. If Chicago didn’t have so much pitching, he could have pressed for a big league job. Guzman led the Cubs with a 1.13 ERA in the Cactus League, and his teammates voted him the most impressive rookie in big league camp. He caught fire in late May, going 3-1, 1.01 over his next five starts. After shutting out eventual Southern League champion Carolina for seven innings on June 20, Guzman was picked to pitch in the Futures Game and would have been the logical callup when Prior hurt his shoulder in mid-July. But Guzman never threw another pitch in 2003, as his shoulder was bothering him. Doctors diagnosed a slight tear in his labrum, and he had it corrected with arthroscopic surgery. The Cubs added him to the 40-man roster for the first time in October. His brother Daniel pitches in the Indians system.
Strengths: Guzman has enjoyed nothing but success since the Cubs gave him a second chance. The Royals originally signed him for $5,500 but voided his contact after he failed his physical. After landing with Chicago for $30,000, he has gone 24-9, 2.33. Guzman’s fastball and changeup are the best in the Cubs system, and his curveball ranks near the top. When they’re on, they’re each 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. Notable for both its velocity (91-96 mph) and explosive sink, his fastball may be the best of his offerings. His development accelerated in 2002 when he regained the curve he flashed when he signed. Managers rated Guzman’s command the best in the Southern League, and he not only throws strikes but also keeps the ball down in the zone. He has permitted just one homer per 23.7 innings as a pro. He shows a lot of athleticism and poise on the mound.
Weaknesses: Guzman’s mechanics and easy delivery augured well for his health—before his shoulder injury. Now the Cubs are holding their breath and hoping he comes back with the stuff he had before he was sidelined. His rehabilitation was going well at the Cubs’ spring-training base in Mesa, Ariz., but they won’t know for sure until he takes the mound in a game situation. He also had a stress fracture in his elbow during his first pro season in 2000. Guzman’s physical condition is the only concern at this point. He was ready for the major leagues when he got hurt.
The Future: The Cubs are going to take things slowly with Guzman’s valuable right arm. He’ll be back in big league camp next spring, but he may not make his 2004 debut until May. He likely will return to Double-A to begin his comeback. Guzman has the stuff of a No. 1 starter, though he may never rise above No. 3 if Prior and Kerry Wood stay in Chicago.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
West Tenn (AA) 3-3 0 2.81 15 15 89.2 83 30 28 26 87 .249
2. Justin Jones, lhp
Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 195.
Drafted: HS—Virginia Beach, 2002 (2nd round).
Signed by: Billy Swoope.
Background: Jones looked like a possible first-round pick early in 2002 but didn’t pitch well in front of crosscheckers, so the Cubs were able to grab him in the second. They planned on pitching him at short-season Boise in 2003 before injuries created an opening at low Class A Lansing. Jones excelled as one of the youngest pitchers in the Midwest League.
Strengths: Jones’ 89-94 mph fastball and his curveball are both plus pitches. With his age and frame, he projects to add velocity. His changeup is advanced for his age, as is most of his package. He also throws an occasional splitter. Lefties went 5-for-58 (.086) with no extra-base hits against him in 2003.
Weaknesses: Like several of Chicago’s top pitching prospects, Jones didn’t make it through the full season. He was shut down twice with a tired arm and didn’t pitch after Aug. 5. He didn’t need surgery but needs to get stronger. His command can get better.
The Future: The Cubs have sought a good lefty starter for years, and Jones will race Andy Sisco and Luke Hagerty to Wrigley Field. Jones should be 100 percent for spring training and will spend 2004 at high Class A Daytona.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lansing (Lo A) 3-5 0 2.28 16 16 71.0 59 29 18 32 87 .215
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3. Ryan Harvey, of
Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 192.
Drafted: HS—Dunedin, Fla., 2003 (1st round).
Signed by: Rolando Pino.
Background: Seven months after blowing out his right knee in an outfield collision at a high school showcase, Harvey was a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2003 draft. The Cubs ranked him third on their draft board and were elated to get him with the sixth pick. Though he signed quickly for $2.4 million, the team had him focus on rehabbing his knee until the final two weeks of the season.
Strengths: Scouts compare Harvey to Dale Murphy. Harvey has huge power, as well as the strongest outfield arm and the best power/speed combination in the system. He threw 90-93 mph off the mound before giving up pitching in the wake of his injury.
Weaknesses: Harvey hasn’t quite regained his 6.7-second speed in the 60-yard dash. His rust also showed at the plate in the Rookie-level Arizona League. His swing can get long at times and he’ll have to keep it shorter with wood bats.
The Future: The last Cubs outfield prospect with this much promise was Corey Patterson. They rushed Patterson and vow not to do the same with Harvey. Sammy Sosa’s eventual successor may begin 2004 in extended spring training before heading to Boise.
TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
AZL Cubs (R) 14 51 9 12 3 2 1 7 6 21 0 .235 .339 .431
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4. Andy Sisco, lhp
Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-9. Wt.: 265.
Drafted: HS—Sammamish, Wash., 2001 (2nd round).
Signed by: Al Geddes.
Background: After snaring Mark Prior with the No. 2 overall pick in 2001, the Cubs followed up with another potential ace in Sisco in the second round. Recruited as a defensive end by Pacific-10 Conference football programs, he signed for $1 million. He missed two months with a broken pitching hand in 2003, but finished strong by not allowing an earned run in two starts as Lansing won the Midwest League playoffs.
Strengths: Sisco is a huge lefthander who already throws 92-94 mph and projects to add more heat, so he draws obvious comparisons to Randy Johnson. And while he has to polish the rest of his game, he has better mechanics and command than the Big Unit had at the same age. Sisco already has an effective changeup and at times shows a plus curveball.
Weaknesses: Sisco’s curve is far from a finished product, as one in four he throws is above-average. He’d be better off throwing fewer splitters and focusing on his other pitches. The Cubs like his competitive makeup, but he also can be immature.
The Future: Once he masters his curveball, Sisco will take off. The Cubs will keep him and Jones together again in 2004 in high Class A.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lansing (Lo A) 6-8 0 3.54 19 19 94.0 76 44 37 31 99 .220
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