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12-09-2003, 08:02 PM
By Will Kimmey
November 17, 2003
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Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
Scouting reports for prospects 2-10 (Subscribers only) -- Click Here to Subscribe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chat Transcript with Will Kimmey Pre-Order the 2004 Prospect Handbook
for 30 scouting reports on every team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Everything looked to be shaping up just right for the Phillies in 2003. The Braves were forced to cut costs and overhaul their pitching staff, while the other National League East teams all seemed to be rebuilding or revamping. After the offseason additions of Jim Thome and Kevin Millwood, most pundits rated the Phillies as sure a bet for the postseason as any NL club.
The season didn’t play out that way. The new-look Braves won their 12th consecutive division title, while the upstart Marlins received a boost from their farm system and actually added salary as they captured the wild card by five games and went on to win the World Series. Philadelphia led the wild-card race with nine days left, then dropped six straight games to ruin its season.
Nonetheless, the Phillies should enter 2004 with as much optimism as they did in 2003. While the Braves and Marlins both are likely to lose key players because of salary constraints, and the Expos and Mets will continue to search for direction, the Phillies are moving into Citizens Bank Park and will generate more money there.
The Phillies could bring back their entire 2003 nucleus aside from Millwood (a free agent who is unlikely to return) and will spend the offseason retooling the bullpen and looking for a front-of-the-rotation starter through trade or free agency. They got an early start by making a quick strike on the trade market to land closer Billy Wagner, their No. 1 target, from the budget-conscious Astros.
The deal cost the Phillies major league righthander Brandon Duckworth and two more righties who would have appeared on their Top 10 Prospects list in Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.
All three pitchers came from the organization’s recently productive farm system. It allowed the Phillies to make the deal and should provide a solid backbone as the they push to make their first playoff appearance since their the 1993 World Series. It has produced everyday players Pat Burrell, Mike Lieberthal and Jimmy Rollins, and over the last year plugged in Marlon Byrd, Brett Myers and Chase Utley.
Because many of the system’s top prospects have graduated to the majors recently, there isn’t much high-end talent ready for Philadelphia in 2004. Righthanders Ryan Madson and Josh Hancock are likely to battle Amaury Telemaco for the fifth starter’s role this spring. But there’s plenty of help on the horizon with two of the game’s top pitching prospects, Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd, just a year or two away.
Hamels and Floyd are a testament to the system’s greatest strength: pitching. Overall, the Phillies have decent prospects at multiple positions and at multiple levels. That’s impressive, given that they’ve forfeited five of their 12 picks in the first three rounds over the past four drafts because of free-agent signings. Philadelphia has drafted astutely and implemented a newly proficient Latin American scouting program. The Phillies are lacking at catcher but addressed their other organizational deficiency by using their first three picks in the 2003 draft on speedsters.
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Top Prospect: Cole Hamels, LHP
Age: 20 Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 185 Bats: Left Throws: Left
Drafted: HS--San Diego, 2002 (1st round)
Signed by: Darrell Conner
Background: Hamels had nothing but question marks entering his pro career, but has provided only exclamation points since signing with the Phillies. He ranked as one of the top pitchers in the 2002 draft, but a broken humerus in his left arm caused him to miss his junior season at Rancho Bernardo High and slip to the 17th overall pick. He originally injured his arm in an off-field accident and aggravated it by pitching. He had surgery performed by the Padres team doctor in his native San Diego and rehabbed with pitching guru Tom House before returning and impressing as a high school senior. Protracted contract negotiations kept Hamels away from baseball before he agreed to a $2 million bonus, and then he showed up out of shape from the long layoff. Because he got little done in instructional league, the Phillies sent him to extended spring training in 2003 to get indoctrinated in the organization's philosophies. Once they turned him loose, he dominated the low Class A South Atlantic and high Class A Florida State leagues. His combined 1.34 ERA would have led the minors had Hamels accumulated 11 more innings to qualify. He allowed just 15 earned runs and not a single home run all season. His command, stuff and pitchability allowed him to edge Gavin Floyd for the top spot on this list, and being lefthanded also aided Hamels’ cause.
Strengths: Hamels should have three above-average pitches when he reaches the majors. He already shows plus command of a fastball that sits between 89-92 mph with plenty of movement. He can reach back for more when he needs it, topping out at 94. His best pitch might be his plus-plus changeup, which was neck-and-neck with Ryan Madson’s as the best in the organization and possibly the minors. Hamels displays exceptional control of his changeup at such a young age, and it really fades away from hitters. Hamels shows a very businesslike mentality on the mound, with no great highs or lows. He’s a great athlete, allowing him to repeat his delivery with ease, hold runners and field his position well.
Weaknesses: His curveball eventually should become a third plus pitch for Hamels, and its movement is already there. He just needs to develop more consistency with the curve. His overall command and control are advanced for his age--and ahead of where Floyd and Brett Myers were at similar stages in their development--but he can continue to improve it as he progresses.
The Future: Hamels hasn’t experienced any repercussions from his high school arm injury. A pulled muscle in his right shoulder blade caused the Phillies to remove him from the trials for USA Baseball's Olympic qualifying team. Club officials didn’t want to risk Hamels altering his mechanics to cope. The minor injury isn’t a long-term concern, and he should begin 2004 on schedule by returning to high Class A Clearwater. He’ll be challenged in Double-A Reading as soon as he proves he’s ready, and will continue his rapid development toward becoming a frontline starter.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lakewood (Lo A) 6-1 0 0.84 13 13 74.2 32 8 7 25 115 .136
Clearwater (Hi A) 0-2 0 2.73 5 5 26.1 29 9 8 14 32 .299
Top Ten Prospects:
Philadelphia Phillies
By Will Kimmey
November 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
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2. Gavin Floyd, rhp
Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 210.
Drafted: HS--Severna Park, Md., 2001 (1st round).
Signed by: Ken Hultzapple.
Background: Floyd likely would rank as the top prospect in at least half the other organizations. He signed for a club-record $4.2 million as the fourth overall pick in 2001—one spot before fellow Mount St. Joseph High product Mark Teixeira—and the Phillies haven't regretted it. Philadelphia signed Gavin's older brother Mike, an outfield, as a 22nd-round pick out of the same draft.
Strengths: Floyd entered his pro career with two plus pitches, a 92-95 mph fastball with movement, and a shoulders-to-shoelaces hard curveball that rates a top-of-the-line 80 on the scouting scale at times. His main focus since has been developing a changeup, which now rates average and shows flashes of being better than that. Floyd works hard at improving his skills and shows above-average makeup.
Weaknesses: A longtime fan of Kevin Millwood, Floyd tried to emulate his idol’s deliberate delivery after watching him in spring training. It cost Floyd his rhythm and deceptiveness, and it took a month to remedy the problem. He was as good as ever thereafter before developing a tired arm late in the season. He must continue to hone his location and ability to repeat pitches, but he’s still ahead of most pitchers his age.
The Future: Floyd’s development is right on track. He'll move up to Double-A in 2004, and the pitching depth in the organization means the Phillies won't have to rush him.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Clearwater (Hi A) 7-8 0 3.00 24 20 138.0 128 61 46 45 115 .247
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3. Ryan Howard, 1b
Age: 24. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 230.
Drafted: Southwest Missouri State, 2001 (5th round).
Signed by: Jerry Lafferty.
Background: Howard followed Rangers prospect Jason Hart as Southwest Missouri State's first baseman, and was projected as a 2001 first-round pick before a junior slump that included a school-record 74 strikeouts. He ended up being a nice prize in the fifth round, leading the Florida State League in batting and homers in 2003, and missing the triple crown by seven RBIs.
Strengths: Howard has legitimate power to all fields, especially on low pitches, and even launched a blast over the batter's eye behind the 400-foot center-field wall at Clearwater's Jack Russell Memorial Stadium. He also has made steady progress in his approach as an all-around hitter, opening his stance to better handle inside pitches. He has proven to be a surprisingly good defender for a big man, with average range and plus hands that allow him to pick throws out of the dirt.
Weaknesses: Howard still has work to do in identifying pitches. As a power hitter, he'll always strike out some, but Phillies officials would like to see him trim his lofty totals. As he matures as a hitter, Howard should learn to wait for specific pitches and to take or foul off those he can't drive. While he struck out less frequently against lefthanders, Howard hit 20 of his 23 homers against righties.
The Future: There's no reason Howard can't reach 35 homers per year in the majors. His power met the stiff test of the pitcher-friendly FSL and should play fine in Double-A in 2004. He won't be rushed through the system because of Jim Thome's presence in Philadelphia, but likely will be ready for the majors before Thome's contract expires after 2008.
TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Clearwater (Hi A) 130 490 67 149 31 1 23 82 50 151 0 .304 .374 .514
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November 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
Scouting reports for prospects 2-10 (Subscribers only) -- Click Here to Subscribe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chat Transcript with Will Kimmey Pre-Order the 2004 Prospect Handbook
for 30 scouting reports on every team
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Everything looked to be shaping up just right for the Phillies in 2003. The Braves were forced to cut costs and overhaul their pitching staff, while the other National League East teams all seemed to be rebuilding or revamping. After the offseason additions of Jim Thome and Kevin Millwood, most pundits rated the Phillies as sure a bet for the postseason as any NL club.
The season didn’t play out that way. The new-look Braves won their 12th consecutive division title, while the upstart Marlins received a boost from their farm system and actually added salary as they captured the wild card by five games and went on to win the World Series. Philadelphia led the wild-card race with nine days left, then dropped six straight games to ruin its season.
Nonetheless, the Phillies should enter 2004 with as much optimism as they did in 2003. While the Braves and Marlins both are likely to lose key players because of salary constraints, and the Expos and Mets will continue to search for direction, the Phillies are moving into Citizens Bank Park and will generate more money there.
The Phillies could bring back their entire 2003 nucleus aside from Millwood (a free agent who is unlikely to return) and will spend the offseason retooling the bullpen and looking for a front-of-the-rotation starter through trade or free agency. They got an early start by making a quick strike on the trade market to land closer Billy Wagner, their No. 1 target, from the budget-conscious Astros.
The deal cost the Phillies major league righthander Brandon Duckworth and two more righties who would have appeared on their Top 10 Prospects list in Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.
All three pitchers came from the organization’s recently productive farm system. It allowed the Phillies to make the deal and should provide a solid backbone as the they push to make their first playoff appearance since their the 1993 World Series. It has produced everyday players Pat Burrell, Mike Lieberthal and Jimmy Rollins, and over the last year plugged in Marlon Byrd, Brett Myers and Chase Utley.
Because many of the system’s top prospects have graduated to the majors recently, there isn’t much high-end talent ready for Philadelphia in 2004. Righthanders Ryan Madson and Josh Hancock are likely to battle Amaury Telemaco for the fifth starter’s role this spring. But there’s plenty of help on the horizon with two of the game’s top pitching prospects, Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd, just a year or two away.
Hamels and Floyd are a testament to the system’s greatest strength: pitching. Overall, the Phillies have decent prospects at multiple positions and at multiple levels. That’s impressive, given that they’ve forfeited five of their 12 picks in the first three rounds over the past four drafts because of free-agent signings. Philadelphia has drafted astutely and implemented a newly proficient Latin American scouting program. The Phillies are lacking at catcher but addressed their other organizational deficiency by using their first three picks in the 2003 draft on speedsters.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Prospect: Cole Hamels, LHP
Age: 20 Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 185 Bats: Left Throws: Left
Drafted: HS--San Diego, 2002 (1st round)
Signed by: Darrell Conner
Background: Hamels had nothing but question marks entering his pro career, but has provided only exclamation points since signing with the Phillies. He ranked as one of the top pitchers in the 2002 draft, but a broken humerus in his left arm caused him to miss his junior season at Rancho Bernardo High and slip to the 17th overall pick. He originally injured his arm in an off-field accident and aggravated it by pitching. He had surgery performed by the Padres team doctor in his native San Diego and rehabbed with pitching guru Tom House before returning and impressing as a high school senior. Protracted contract negotiations kept Hamels away from baseball before he agreed to a $2 million bonus, and then he showed up out of shape from the long layoff. Because he got little done in instructional league, the Phillies sent him to extended spring training in 2003 to get indoctrinated in the organization's philosophies. Once they turned him loose, he dominated the low Class A South Atlantic and high Class A Florida State leagues. His combined 1.34 ERA would have led the minors had Hamels accumulated 11 more innings to qualify. He allowed just 15 earned runs and not a single home run all season. His command, stuff and pitchability allowed him to edge Gavin Floyd for the top spot on this list, and being lefthanded also aided Hamels’ cause.
Strengths: Hamels should have three above-average pitches when he reaches the majors. He already shows plus command of a fastball that sits between 89-92 mph with plenty of movement. He can reach back for more when he needs it, topping out at 94. His best pitch might be his plus-plus changeup, which was neck-and-neck with Ryan Madson’s as the best in the organization and possibly the minors. Hamels displays exceptional control of his changeup at such a young age, and it really fades away from hitters. Hamels shows a very businesslike mentality on the mound, with no great highs or lows. He’s a great athlete, allowing him to repeat his delivery with ease, hold runners and field his position well.
Weaknesses: His curveball eventually should become a third plus pitch for Hamels, and its movement is already there. He just needs to develop more consistency with the curve. His overall command and control are advanced for his age--and ahead of where Floyd and Brett Myers were at similar stages in their development--but he can continue to improve it as he progresses.
The Future: Hamels hasn’t experienced any repercussions from his high school arm injury. A pulled muscle in his right shoulder blade caused the Phillies to remove him from the trials for USA Baseball's Olympic qualifying team. Club officials didn’t want to risk Hamels altering his mechanics to cope. The minor injury isn’t a long-term concern, and he should begin 2004 on schedule by returning to high Class A Clearwater. He’ll be challenged in Double-A Reading as soon as he proves he’s ready, and will continue his rapid development toward becoming a frontline starter.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Lakewood (Lo A) 6-1 0 0.84 13 13 74.2 32 8 7 25 115 .136
Clearwater (Hi A) 0-2 0 2.73 5 5 26.1 29 9 8 14 32 .299
Top Ten Prospects:
Philadelphia Phillies
By Will Kimmey
November 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2004.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Gavin Floyd, rhp
Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 210.
Drafted: HS--Severna Park, Md., 2001 (1st round).
Signed by: Ken Hultzapple.
Background: Floyd likely would rank as the top prospect in at least half the other organizations. He signed for a club-record $4.2 million as the fourth overall pick in 2001—one spot before fellow Mount St. Joseph High product Mark Teixeira—and the Phillies haven't regretted it. Philadelphia signed Gavin's older brother Mike, an outfield, as a 22nd-round pick out of the same draft.
Strengths: Floyd entered his pro career with two plus pitches, a 92-95 mph fastball with movement, and a shoulders-to-shoelaces hard curveball that rates a top-of-the-line 80 on the scouting scale at times. His main focus since has been developing a changeup, which now rates average and shows flashes of being better than that. Floyd works hard at improving his skills and shows above-average makeup.
Weaknesses: A longtime fan of Kevin Millwood, Floyd tried to emulate his idol’s deliberate delivery after watching him in spring training. It cost Floyd his rhythm and deceptiveness, and it took a month to remedy the problem. He was as good as ever thereafter before developing a tired arm late in the season. He must continue to hone his location and ability to repeat pitches, but he’s still ahead of most pitchers his age.
The Future: Floyd’s development is right on track. He'll move up to Double-A in 2004, and the pitching depth in the organization means the Phillies won't have to rush him.
Team W-L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO AVG
Clearwater (Hi A) 7-8 0 3.00 24 20 138.0 128 61 46 45 115 .247
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3. Ryan Howard, 1b
Age: 24. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 230.
Drafted: Southwest Missouri State, 2001 (5th round).
Signed by: Jerry Lafferty.
Background: Howard followed Rangers prospect Jason Hart as Southwest Missouri State's first baseman, and was projected as a 2001 first-round pick before a junior slump that included a school-record 74 strikeouts. He ended up being a nice prize in the fifth round, leading the Florida State League in batting and homers in 2003, and missing the triple crown by seven RBIs.
Strengths: Howard has legitimate power to all fields, especially on low pitches, and even launched a blast over the batter's eye behind the 400-foot center-field wall at Clearwater's Jack Russell Memorial Stadium. He also has made steady progress in his approach as an all-around hitter, opening his stance to better handle inside pitches. He has proven to be a surprisingly good defender for a big man, with average range and plus hands that allow him to pick throws out of the dirt.
Weaknesses: Howard still has work to do in identifying pitches. As a power hitter, he'll always strike out some, but Phillies officials would like to see him trim his lofty totals. As he matures as a hitter, Howard should learn to wait for specific pitches and to take or foul off those he can't drive. While he struck out less frequently against lefthanders, Howard hit 20 of his 23 homers against righties.
The Future: There's no reason Howard can't reach 35 homers per year in the majors. His power met the stiff test of the pitcher-friendly FSL and should play fine in Double-A in 2004. He won't be rushed through the system because of Jim Thome's presence in Philadelphia, but likely will be ready for the majors before Thome's contract expires after 2008.
TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Clearwater (Hi A) 130 490 67 149 31 1 23 82 50 151 0 .304 .374 .514
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