Astros Acquire Harville

[barzilla]

I know you guys have seen this, but I wasn't able to give it my normal attention, so here is goes:

. . . . . .Age. . .INN. . .H. . .SO. . .BB
Player A . . 25 . . .134. . 155. . .97 . . .44
Player B . . 27 . . . .39. . .45.. .35. . .27

I think everyone can figure out who is who in this transaction. Harville does have a live arm, but he has struggled with his control in his three seasons at the big league level. On the plus side, he is close to having a strikeout for every inning pitched and he might figure out the control at some point. At 27 years old he needs to do it quickly.

The As get a guy who can start or relieve. Beane has coveted him ever since the Astros took him in the draft. Looking at these numbers it's easy to see why. Saarloos has a strikeout to walk ratio better than two to one and has a shade under three walks per nine innings. His homerun rate also fell considerably in his second season.

All in all I would have called up Saarloos to be the seventh reliever in lieu of making this deal, but having another "hard thrower" is preferable to having another effective one I guess.

[PopTop]

Sorry I'm just now getting around to commenting on this as well. I sort of liked this one when it was first announced (go figure, me and 'Zilla differing on something) ... But Scott does offer up some good evidence not to like it with those numbers ... I just think that Harville could work out better in this pen THIS YEAR than Saarloos might, could be an occasional 8th-inning guy better than Saarloos might if the need arised ... I know what you're saying about the "hard thrower, better pitcher" mentality ... I've liked Harville's potential probably as much as Beane has coveted Saarloos.

And I think this is also a very clear message: This team is going to do everything it can to have its best shot ever at The Series. I know, that message was sent when they signed Clemens and Pettitte pretty clearly as well. But if how I look at the deal is correct (Harville can help the pen more this year than Saarloos), then look for at least 1-2 more "minor deals," maybe even a big one thrown in if McLane starts to get an itch, between now and the All-Star Game.

[barzilla]

Willie,

I think you're probably right on both fronts. Harville is likely a better prospect in 2004 than Saarloos for that particular role. I think the reason for the deal was a lot more nuts and bolts than a World Series run though. I think Jimy and Gerry were suffering from the rose-tinted glasses that came from Pettitte and Clemens joining the rotation. "Now all of our starters can go seven innings so we don't need seven relievers." Well, Pettitte went down and Redding struggled so they discovered they really did need seven pitchers.

As far as major deals go I can't really see anything major happening unless the team suffers any long-term injuries. The only need the club really has at this point would be a more experienced closer, but I don't see one available at any point (a lot can change in three months though).

[PopTop]

"Now all of our starters can go seven innings so we don't need seven relievers." Well, Pettitte went down and Redding struggled so they discovered they really did need seven pitchers.

Good point.

[Toy Cannon]

Willie,

I The only need the club really has at this point would be a more experienced closer, but I don't see one available at any point (a lot can change in three months though).

Both of you guys know as well as I that Dotel always starts out like this. I don't feel that closing is a concern for Houston. He is starting to hit the mid 90's and the upper 90's aren't far behind. Come mid-May the idea of acquiring a more experienced closer will be distant memory. Octavio will be fine.

As far as the Harville/Saarloos trade goes, you can look at stats all you want as long as you study all of them. Who would you rather facing Pujols or Sosa in a close game, a guy who throws 96 or a guy who throws 90? After watching Harville dispose of Pujols and Rolen while going right at them, I'll take Mr. Harville in a heartbeat.

[barzilla]

Toy,

"Would you rather be facing a guy who throws 90 or 96?"

First of all, if Saarloos threw 90 I think he would probably still be here. He could get up to 88 on a good day, but that's besides the point. If Harville throws strikes I have no doubt that he will continue to be effective. The thing is that he has never shown that he can do that on a consistent basis in the big leagues. Basing a decision on who to keep on hitters like Pujols and Bonds is foolhardy. Those guys will hit everyone if given enough at bats. The Cards did well by signing that guy to a long-term contract. He is a very special player and showed it last night against Miller. Unfortunately, the Astros don't have anyone as special as him at this point in their careers.

[Sandy]

Saarloos has always struck me as a potentially solid #3 starter (if given the chance), but one with emotional problems. Not that he's a Carl Everett headcase - but that he suffers from adrenaline overload. Every time he's moved up (that I'm aware of), he's been simply AWFUL his first outing or two, and then settles down. I think he *could* develop into a solid #3 starter some day -- or maybe even higher if he learns the 'right' pitch. (think Loaiza).

IMO, heat is the single most over-rated aspect of modern pitching analysis. The road is littered with the corpses of the 98-mph hurler who NEVER develops control. I've watched enough Wohlers and Rockers come and go with Atlanta (while Maddux plugged away throwing junk) to gain a great appreciate for the difference between "thrower" and "pitcher".

IMO, this is a case of too much CMA and not enough guts. If someone grabs a 98-mph hurler, it's like drafting a 7' 6" center in basketball -- it's all about the upside. IF he develops skills, THEN he could be dominant. Nobody faults you for taking the guy with the radar gun highlights. But if you go out on a limb for a guy with an 86-mph 'fastball', if he doesn't work out everyone says, "what a moron."

Saarloos probably won't be a HoF pitcher, but I think under the right circumstances, he could have a long and productive career. Harville I see as much more likely to wind up on the refuse pile of hurlers that make you wanna hurl.

[barzilla]

I have to agree with Sandy on this one, but Saarloos probably would have never been a starting pitcher for us. He is not cut out to be a dominant relief pitcher because he doesn't have the dominant "out" pitch that most late inning relievers have. He could have been a decent end of the rotation starter or long reliever though. Personally, I would have liked to have seen him put up gaudy numbers in New Orleans again and used him as a part of a package for whatever hole we wanted to fill before the July 31st deadline.

P.S. Don't look now, but Philip is off to a brilliant start in Round Rock.

[Astro Annie]

I have a Saarloos ball. Which is to say, I had high hopes for him. I also sponsor his page on baseball-reference.com.

I think he was a victim of the Hooton style of coaching that doesn't deal with mechanics. Well, with Saarloos, that's all he's got. He ain't got no speed. So if he's not throwing it right, it ain't gonna work. And he's not experienced enough as a pitcher to be able to tune it up himself. Some guys can get past it, but Saarloos was a guy who couldn't. So, since we couldn't get rid of the coach, we got rid of the pitcher. After two atrocious outings for NO, he had a very nice outing for Sacramento. Here are his numbers for the year.


Date Oppponent IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Result
4/08/04 Iowa L (0-1) 3.0 7 6 3 1 3 0 9.00 L 6-3
4/13/04 Omaha L (0-2) 4.0 10 9 9 0 3 4 15.43 L 9-2
4/22/04 Salt Lake W (1-2) 6.0 3 0 0 2 5 0 8.31 W 14-1

Totals 13.0 20 15 12 3 11 4 8.31


I feel the need to point out that the Salt Lake Stingers are currrently 11-7 which is one of the best records in the PCL (I follow them because former Astro Barry Wesson plays OF for them and I sponsor his page on baseball-reference.com, too). This was not some pansy team that he pitched well against.

Over on another forum, we're running an "adopt-a-prospect" program where you adopt a prospect and report on him every week or so (every start if he's a pitcher). I adopted Felipe Paulino, but since I follow Kirk anyway, I adopted him, too, even though he's not exactly a "prospect". I wrote a tearful note when he was traded but was asked to keep reporting on him. Not a problem...I still follow him.

[barzilla]

Annie,

How did you do that code?

Yeah, I am disappointed to lose Saarloos. That first outing doesn't make it any better. In Moneyball, they mentioned that Beane was hot for Saarloos, but the Astros picked him before he could.

[Toy Cannon]

In Moneyball, they mentioned that Beane was hot for Saarloos, but the Astros picked him before he could.

Didn't the Astros have Harville pegged for their #1 pick but Berkman was still available so they grabbed him instead? Sounds like a swap of two pitchers who were highly rated by their organizations but things just didn't work out for them. If Harville had options left, I don't think he would have been traded.

[Astro Annie]

Annie,

How did you do that code?

Okay, when you're writing a message, do you see that little # graphic up at the top? Hover over it with your mouse and it says "Wrap [CODE] Tags". If you click on it, you get a little box that you can paste your stuff into and it wraps the appropriate tags around it. I cannot abide putting stuff in the box, though, so I just use the tags. The tag for code is [code] and you end it like any other tag pair. When you click on [Preview Post] it will show up like it did in my message. Now, I wrapped a [size=3] around it to make sure it would be a decent size (I don't know what the default is....I didn't bother to check; it's been my experience on other forums that the default is too small, so I started at 5 and went down until I liked it).

[barzilla]

TC,

Yes, that is all correct. The Astros would have picked Harville if Berkman wasn't available.

Annie,

thanks for the tip.