Fantasy Football Rookies

[duckboy]

Who do you think will be the best fantasy runningback to come out of this rookie class over the next three years. I have the number one pick in the rookie draft for a 100 percent keeper league. I will have three year rights to whoever I pick. As my team stands right now, I really need a running back. I lose two after this season. I don't necessarily need a running back who is coming in to be a fantasy impact right away. They just have to be a major impact next year. My leauge gives 6pts for a TD, 1pt for every 10 yards of rushing and receiving, and -2pts for any fumbles. If you were in my position which one of these five backs would you take?

[PissedPrincess]

Tatum O'Neil or Orange Julius Jones.

:smokin:

[Special_K19]

Has to be Bell, anyone that can have Mike Anderson rush for 1500 yards can get a phenominal season out of a player with twice the talent.

[Thedatch]

i think chris perry has a shot too though. This kid is good, and hes playing for the bengals, so hes gonna get a lot of chances to run.

[Tarminder]

Stephen Jackson....he will do great in St louis in 2-3 years when Faulk retires

[duckboy]

I got to admit. Right now I'm really torn between Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell. Jackson would be my favorite, but I can only hold onto a player for three years, and I really need whoever I pick to be a fantasy force by next year. Here is how I view both Jones and Bell. Please let me know if I'm off base.

Kevin Jones - He is the best breakaway runner in the draft. A lot of people compare him to a less talented Barry Sanders. He will have lots of games where he has 16 rushes for 11 yards, but then the 17th carry will go for 50. He isn't very adapt at catching the ball out of the backfield yet, but that doesn't mean he can't learn that. He should get every opportunity to land the starting job, but Mariucci has already tossed that nasty word "committee" around. I'm also not sure about the Lions offensive line.

Tatum Bell - He appears to be a very steady between the tackles runner with some breakaway speed. He is coming back from an injury, otherwise he would likely have gone higher in the draft. He is also known to have a fumbling problem (just like Portis when he came into the league). He is coming into a crowded backfield this year. Garrison Hearst (who signed a one year deal), Quentin Griffen (who is a small back), and Mike Anderson are also in line for some carries. My thoughts are he was drafted because they know he will be the best back for the team. I do think he will split some carries with Hearst in the first year, but will likely be the sole starter next year. There is also a chance he will be the sole starter right away, but I don't think that is as likely.

What do you guys think of the analysis of the two backs?

[renuszm]

Has to be Bell, anyone that can have Mike Anderson rush for 1500 yards can get a phenominal season out of a player with twice the talent.
Yeah, I agree with that.

[Durango53]

Its not the RB as much as it is the O-Line.

[duckboy]

Durango, what do you see Tatum's role with the team being? Do you think he will get playing time right away, or do you think they will wait a year?

[PissedPrincess]

Little Darling will start right away.

[Durango53]

I dont know Duck. I think Mike will see who comes out of training camp the strongest. They have a three headed running attack it looks like. They have Garrison Hearst who I think will get his fair share of carries. Then Quentin Griffin who showed he could run some last year. Some people hate him and others love him but dont be suprised if he gets a few touchs this year also. Then there is the hometown guy Cecil Sapp. So it will be tough for Tatum to get a start. And then dont forget about Mike Anderson but some people are saying me might be let go. When you got a team as deap as this team with RB's I think it is going to come down to who works the hardest and looks the best in Training camp. Tough call....

[duckboy]

This is such a tough call. If everyone were starting right away I would probably go:

Steven Jackson
Tatum Bell
Kevin Jones
Chris Perry
Julius Jones

[UntouchableM2]

i would go w/Kevin Jones

Perry would be nice if he was on a team that didnt have a decent young starter and saw some time.......

[FFJones]

Got to go Jones at Detroit, they have been needing a running game since Barry Sanders left. Still scratching my head over the Julius Jones pick. Thought Dallas could have done better.

www.MyNFFL.com

[duckboy]

I still think Dallas really blew it. Stephen Jackson was perfect for them.

I'm starting to like Kevin Jones more and more. I don't think Tatum Bell will start the year as the starting running back, but I do think he will get a shot before the year is up.

[PissedPrincess]

I see I'm in the minority. I think Orange Julius Jones is gonna be a stud. :smokin:

[duckboy]

He certainly has the most opportunity. Also, you've seen first hand what the Tuna does to a running game. It's hard to discount what Jones could do this year.

[>TC<]

Kevin Jones would be my first pick based on opportunity to start and the fact that Marriucci is bringing in "his players" to implement his offense. He'll be patient, letting these guys develop together.

Julius Jones is going to get every opportunity to win show what he has in Dallas. The worry I have with him is that Parcells won't be as forgiving of mistakes and he could be pulled after a couple fumbles. Playing time might be inconsistant.

Tatum Bell is going to be running in an offense that has anuually produced 1000 rushers. The limitation here is competition. "If" is the key word in Denver - Will he get the ball like Portis did a couple years ago?

I don't see Perry having too much impact. Rudi Johnson will be the main guy, although I don't know what his contract status is for 2005. Perry will be in to give Johnson a blow and maybe develop into a 3rd down back.

Jackson has great talent, but again, opportunity is limited. You might be able to count on Faulk missing a handfull of games every year but he isn't going to lose the job unless it's a major injury.


My .02

TC

[Panzram]

Living in Michigan I have to go with Jones. Regardless if he plays or not watching the Lions should be a laugh riot this year.

[duckboy]

Kevin Jones would be my first pick based on opportunity to start and the fact that Marriucci is bringing in "his players" to implement his offense. He'll be patient, letting these guys develop together.

Julius Jones is going to get every opportunity to win show what he has in Dallas. The worry I have with him is that Parcells won't be as forgiving of mistakes and he could be pulled after a couple fumbles. Playing time might be inconsistant.

Tatum Bell is going to be running in an offense that has anuually produced 1000 rushers. The limitation here is competition. "If" is the key word in Denver - Will he get the ball like Portis did a couple years ago?

I don't see Perry having too much impact. Rudi Johnson will be the main guy, although I don't know what his contract status is for 2005. Perry will be in to give Johnson a blow and maybe develop into a 3rd down back.

Jackson has great talent, but again, opportunity is limited. You might be able to count on Faulk missing a handfull of games every year but he isn't going to lose the job unless it's a major injury.


My .02

TC

Thanks TC! Great analysis. :clap:

[duckboy]

Living in Michigan I have to go with Jones. Regardless if he plays or not watching the Lions should be a laugh riot this year.

Thanks Koz. The one danger I've been hearing in Detroit is that the really like Artose Pinner as well, and could possibly use a committee at RB. Have you heard anything about that there? What's your take on what they will do?

[Trots]

If Kevin Jones is anything close to the hype, the Lions won't need a committee. Yeah, Pinner and company will get some time in special situations, especially early in the season, but you don't move into the first round to grab a back and then let him watch. The Lions running game has been too awful not to let him get the majority of carries.

Right now, I like Bell (how can you not with Denver's history?), then KJ. I'd probably follow them with J. Jones, Jackson then Perry. Julius should get a great opportunity. Jackson is arguably the most talented, but playing behind the most talented guy as well. Perry moves up a bit if he becomes the number one guy in Cincy.

[Panzram]

I hate the Lions so I hope he falls on his ass.

[FootballGuru]

I would go with Bell. Not because he is a better player but because Kevin Jones is going to have a rough year in Detroit. Detroit will get better (how can you get worse) but this is going to be a building year. Defenses can still shut down Detroit passing and rushing.

We'll see what happens in Denver in the next couple of months but there is a HUGE opportunity for Bell to be a fantasy stud if he can get an opportunity.

The Bad News is that Denver is usually fairly stacked in the RB department.

The Good News is that Shanahan is rarely loyal to any of them, so even if someone else starts the season, I do not doubt that Bell will get his chance before long. Coaches tend to have a need to "see what they got" in a new draft pick so they give them all of the opportunity they can.

[>TC<]

Obviously, J. Jones has to be downgraded in most leagues, since the Cowboys signed George to be the starter. That being said, in a perfromance league, Jones could still have some value as a third down back, change of pace guy for the Cowboys.

TC

[duckboy]

This is getting trickier. I just made a major trade to acquire Deuce McAllister. He will go along with Domanick Davis for my running backs. Now I have to decide between a running back or taking Larry Fitzgerald. What do you guys think about Fitzgerald? Do you believe he will be great right away, or take time?

[Thedatch]

I think TC is more qualified to answer this question, but with the talent and the attitude fitzgerald has, i think he will come out on fire this year. but i dunno if hell get that much playing time? dont take my word for it tho

[>TC<]

I think Fitzgerald will be very productive for a first year WR. That doesn't mean he is a number one receiver for your team, he'd be a better #2 or#3 guy. He has outstanding hands but average speed, so he might have some trouble getting separation from NFL corners, initially.
Denny Green is an excellent offensive coach, so he should come around nicely. If you remember, Denny drafted Moss and turned him loose as a rookie, so Larry will get his opportunity. Just don't expect Moss type rookie numbers because of the lack of speed. I compare him to Keyshawn Johnson, in that he'll have a lot of receptions, not too many long plays, and catch a few less TD's than you'd hope for.
I am thinking 75 catches, 800 yds , maybe 6-8 TDs

TC

[duckboy]

I would take 800yds and 6-8tds. I just want to make sure he would be fantasy relevant in year one. I gave up a solid receiver in Santana Moss to land McAllister and upgrade QB. The receivers I'm left with are:

Peerless Price
Andre Johnson
Dante Stallworth

Based on what TC said, I would love to add Fitzgerald to this bunch.

[duckboy]

After all was said and done, I picked Stephen Jackson. It came down to one philosophy, "What player is the most likely to be a top 5 fantasy draft pick in 2005, 2006, and 2007". With that said, I picked Steven Jackson. It's a gamble, but I'm assuming that Faulk will not be the starter next year (he is expensive, and on the decline). He also doesn't have another young player in his way, like Tatum Bell does. Also, I get this feeling that Kevin Jones is going to fill the Fred Taylor type mold. In other words, he might not be a person who scores a lot of touchdowns.

[>TC<]

For 2005 and beyond, you made a good choice. Of the rookies you mentioned, he has the highest ceiling if for no other reason than the scheme that made Faulk a top pick for years.

TC

[>TC<]

Julius Jones has a broken shoulder and will be out a minimum of two months, more likely he's done for the year.


TC

[duckboy]

So far my pick of Jackson isn't looking too bad. Kevin Jones isn't setting the world on fire yet. BTW, I also got Chris Perry in that draft.