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05-21-2004, 08:56 AM
The way this year's crop of rookies are playing, Roger Daltry must be spinning in his grave because the kids certainly aren't all right.
What's that? He's still alive? The Who are releasing a new single? No matter; the rookies are still crummy.
Of course, we should have seen this coming: everybody's preseason favorite for rookie of the year, Twins catcher Joe Mauer, hurt his knee in the second game of the season and has been sidelined ever since.
That was a harbinger of things to come for this class. Only four rookie hitters have garnered enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting crown, only two have five or more home runs, and only one has more than 17 RBI.
And the pitching is even worse. Of the 10 rookies who have started at least two games this season, only three sport an ERA below 4.00. The cumulative ERA of the group is 5.27, and the cumulative WHIP is 1.62.
So what's a fantasy owner who likes the youngsters to do (and no, we're not still talking about Peter Townshend here)?
Well, 10 of the young hitters we identified prior to the season have yet to reach the majors this season, and two others haven't played this season due to injury, so there's hope. Here's a revised look at some of the more hyped rookies entering the season, as well as a few new editions.
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
Mauer was three-for-four with two walks before suffering a knee injury in his second big-league game. The injury required arthroscopic surgery, and Mauer has just begun DHing in extended spring training. He's expected to give catching a try this weekend, and if all goes well he'll go on a minor-league rehab assignment next week. The target date for his return to the Twins is June 1. He went two-for-four with a home run in his first outing earlier this week, so it doesn't appear as if the injury has harmed his keen batting eye. When he returns, he'll be the Twins' primary catcher; those waiting for dividends on their investment can expect a solid .280-plus average the rest of the way.
Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics
Those who didn't have Mauer's name penciled in on their AL ROY ballot probably had Crosby. Oakland's 24-year-old heir to Miguel Tejada has provided pop (five homers), but his .216 average has been tough to digest. Moreover, Crosby's penchant for taking out teammates on popups has caused more than a few ripples in the A's lineup (an aside: can you imagine the damage a Crosby/Marcus Giles infield might inflict? It would be like going across the middle on Ray Lewis). That said, the A's seem committed to giving Crosby every opportunity to hit his way out of his funk, and he has raised his average 30 points with nine hits (including two dingers) in his last eight games. Given his track record, there's every reason to believe Crosby's ascent will continue, so if he's been kicked to the curb in your league this is a great time to add him to your roster.
Kazuo Matsui, SS, Mets
After a fast start, he latest Far East import hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but you might recall it took Hideki Matsui a little time to get acclimated last year. Kaz has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games, leading one to believe his average will soon be ascending from its lowly .247. With the increasing average, you can also expect his homer and steals totals—both of which currently stand at three—to climb as well. Assuming you didn't overpay expecting a reprise of his Japan League numbers on this side of the Pacific, you shouldn't be disappointed as he approaches a 15/15/.280 inaugural campaign.
Lew Ford, OF, Twins
Ford wasn't expecting to contribute much this season, as he was one of three (four, if you count super-utility player Michael Cuddyer) backup outfielders stuck behind Torii Hunter, Shannon Stewart, and Jacque Jones. Then Hunter hurt his hamstring and the Twins lost primary DH Matthew LeCroy, and suddenly there were at-bats to be had. Ford made the most of them and is currently ninth in the AL with a .333 average. His play has the Jones trade rumors circulating again, though with a .306 average, seven homers, and eight steals Jones is playing pretty well himself. Stewart is currently battling plantar fasciitis, and LeCroy may be needed to play some first base if Doug Mientkiewicz's back continues to be a problem, so Ford will still get his cuts. He's probably a reach in combo leagues, but he'll likely carry a .300 average over 300 or so at-bats the rest of the way, which will help most fantasy outfields in AL-only leagues.
Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies
Colorado's final cut this spring, Holliday hit .364 with two homers and two steals in six Triple-A games before rejoining the Rocks when Preston Wilson went down. Seven home runs later, Holliday has clamped down the left-field job at least until the end of June, when Wilson is expected to return. Holliday posted double-digit totals in both homers and steals his last two minor-league seasons, and he clearly enjoys swinging the stick in Coors. His average is bound to tumble a bit, but he'll provide plenty of pop and mix in a few steals for the next month-and-a-half—maybe longer. Holliday is a solid addition to NL-only league lineups and could even crack the roster of combo-league clubs looking for an infusion of power.
Chad Cordero, RP, Expos
Coming into the season, we had Cordero pegged as Montreal's closer sooner rather than later. After all, last year's first-round pick was fast-tracked to the majors and was sterling in 11 innings (1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP) last season. He's been a little on the wild side this season, with 13 walks in 19.1 innings, but he's also sporting a 1.86 ERA—more than five runs better than current ‘Spos closer Rocky Biddle. Cordero is a must-have in keeper leagues and could start making notches in the saves column by Memorial Day.
Chris Capuano, SP, Brewers
Capuano's solid start—a 3.46 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 13 innings—was wiped out when he suffered a strained quad in just his third outing of the season. He's made a couple rehab starts and is on target to rejoin the Brew Crew rotation next week. You may want to give him a start or two to get readjusted, though some might argue that playing for the current incarnation of the Brewers is barely discernable for playing in the minors. However, Capuano is fully capable of contributing in most fantasy pitching categories not involving a decision (i.e., wins and saves), and odds are there isn't a line forming outside your commissioner's door to pick up a Milwaukee pitcher.
Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles
The O's have plenty of young arms, and Matt Riley was already slotted into the rotation before a XXX injury landed him on the disabled list. Cabrera was a little below the radar, but a six-inning shutout of the White Sox followed by another strong performance (6.2 innings, six hits, two runs) in a win against the Mariners grabbed Lee Mazzilli's attention. With Riley out for another week and Kurt Ainsworth stinking it up, a third solid outing—he'll pitch this weekend against the Angels—could cement Cabrera's spot with the big club even after Riley returns. With a mid-90s fastball, a decent change, and the makings of a big-league curveball, Cabrera could celebrate his 23rd birthday later this month in Baltimore rather than in Triple-A. At a minimum, pitching-hungry teams in AL-only leagues should be making a play for Cabrera; if he shuts down Anaheim, combo-leaguers will be jumping on the bandwagon as well.
Akinori Otsuka, RP, Padres
It says something about this year's crop of rookie pitchers when the best of the lot is a 32-year-old former Japanese Leaguer who may or may not balk on every pitch he throws. The former Chunichi Dragons closer has been lights-out in a set-up role for the Pads, but from a fantasy perspective he's little more than Trevor Hoffman insurance. That said, if you're in an NL-only league choosing between some starter who might blow up your team ERA or getting a few quality innings from a set-up man, Otsuka is your guy.
Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians
The Cleveland bullpen is a mess, but if you're desperately seeking cheap saves, Betancourt might be the way to go. With 25 strikeouts and only one walk in 19.2 innings, he's certainly got the arm. Betancourt's velocity was down a bit earlier this season, but he's shown signs of life and hurled a scoreless inning his last time out. David Riske, Jose Jimenez, and Scott Stewart have done little to lay claim to getting the ball in the ninth inning, so Betancourt could end up being the top rookie fireman of the season. While that's akin to being the tallest jockey at Pimlico, a few saves might be the difference between contending for your league title and getting an early start on your football season.
What's that? He's still alive? The Who are releasing a new single? No matter; the rookies are still crummy.
Of course, we should have seen this coming: everybody's preseason favorite for rookie of the year, Twins catcher Joe Mauer, hurt his knee in the second game of the season and has been sidelined ever since.
That was a harbinger of things to come for this class. Only four rookie hitters have garnered enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting crown, only two have five or more home runs, and only one has more than 17 RBI.
And the pitching is even worse. Of the 10 rookies who have started at least two games this season, only three sport an ERA below 4.00. The cumulative ERA of the group is 5.27, and the cumulative WHIP is 1.62.
So what's a fantasy owner who likes the youngsters to do (and no, we're not still talking about Peter Townshend here)?
Well, 10 of the young hitters we identified prior to the season have yet to reach the majors this season, and two others haven't played this season due to injury, so there's hope. Here's a revised look at some of the more hyped rookies entering the season, as well as a few new editions.
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
Mauer was three-for-four with two walks before suffering a knee injury in his second big-league game. The injury required arthroscopic surgery, and Mauer has just begun DHing in extended spring training. He's expected to give catching a try this weekend, and if all goes well he'll go on a minor-league rehab assignment next week. The target date for his return to the Twins is June 1. He went two-for-four with a home run in his first outing earlier this week, so it doesn't appear as if the injury has harmed his keen batting eye. When he returns, he'll be the Twins' primary catcher; those waiting for dividends on their investment can expect a solid .280-plus average the rest of the way.
Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics
Those who didn't have Mauer's name penciled in on their AL ROY ballot probably had Crosby. Oakland's 24-year-old heir to Miguel Tejada has provided pop (five homers), but his .216 average has been tough to digest. Moreover, Crosby's penchant for taking out teammates on popups has caused more than a few ripples in the A's lineup (an aside: can you imagine the damage a Crosby/Marcus Giles infield might inflict? It would be like going across the middle on Ray Lewis). That said, the A's seem committed to giving Crosby every opportunity to hit his way out of his funk, and he has raised his average 30 points with nine hits (including two dingers) in his last eight games. Given his track record, there's every reason to believe Crosby's ascent will continue, so if he's been kicked to the curb in your league this is a great time to add him to your roster.
Kazuo Matsui, SS, Mets
After a fast start, he latest Far East import hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but you might recall it took Hideki Matsui a little time to get acclimated last year. Kaz has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games, leading one to believe his average will soon be ascending from its lowly .247. With the increasing average, you can also expect his homer and steals totals—both of which currently stand at three—to climb as well. Assuming you didn't overpay expecting a reprise of his Japan League numbers on this side of the Pacific, you shouldn't be disappointed as he approaches a 15/15/.280 inaugural campaign.
Lew Ford, OF, Twins
Ford wasn't expecting to contribute much this season, as he was one of three (four, if you count super-utility player Michael Cuddyer) backup outfielders stuck behind Torii Hunter, Shannon Stewart, and Jacque Jones. Then Hunter hurt his hamstring and the Twins lost primary DH Matthew LeCroy, and suddenly there were at-bats to be had. Ford made the most of them and is currently ninth in the AL with a .333 average. His play has the Jones trade rumors circulating again, though with a .306 average, seven homers, and eight steals Jones is playing pretty well himself. Stewart is currently battling plantar fasciitis, and LeCroy may be needed to play some first base if Doug Mientkiewicz's back continues to be a problem, so Ford will still get his cuts. He's probably a reach in combo leagues, but he'll likely carry a .300 average over 300 or so at-bats the rest of the way, which will help most fantasy outfields in AL-only leagues.
Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies
Colorado's final cut this spring, Holliday hit .364 with two homers and two steals in six Triple-A games before rejoining the Rocks when Preston Wilson went down. Seven home runs later, Holliday has clamped down the left-field job at least until the end of June, when Wilson is expected to return. Holliday posted double-digit totals in both homers and steals his last two minor-league seasons, and he clearly enjoys swinging the stick in Coors. His average is bound to tumble a bit, but he'll provide plenty of pop and mix in a few steals for the next month-and-a-half—maybe longer. Holliday is a solid addition to NL-only league lineups and could even crack the roster of combo-league clubs looking for an infusion of power.
Chad Cordero, RP, Expos
Coming into the season, we had Cordero pegged as Montreal's closer sooner rather than later. After all, last year's first-round pick was fast-tracked to the majors and was sterling in 11 innings (1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP) last season. He's been a little on the wild side this season, with 13 walks in 19.1 innings, but he's also sporting a 1.86 ERA—more than five runs better than current ‘Spos closer Rocky Biddle. Cordero is a must-have in keeper leagues and could start making notches in the saves column by Memorial Day.
Chris Capuano, SP, Brewers
Capuano's solid start—a 3.46 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 13 innings—was wiped out when he suffered a strained quad in just his third outing of the season. He's made a couple rehab starts and is on target to rejoin the Brew Crew rotation next week. You may want to give him a start or two to get readjusted, though some might argue that playing for the current incarnation of the Brewers is barely discernable for playing in the minors. However, Capuano is fully capable of contributing in most fantasy pitching categories not involving a decision (i.e., wins and saves), and odds are there isn't a line forming outside your commissioner's door to pick up a Milwaukee pitcher.
Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles
The O's have plenty of young arms, and Matt Riley was already slotted into the rotation before a XXX injury landed him on the disabled list. Cabrera was a little below the radar, but a six-inning shutout of the White Sox followed by another strong performance (6.2 innings, six hits, two runs) in a win against the Mariners grabbed Lee Mazzilli's attention. With Riley out for another week and Kurt Ainsworth stinking it up, a third solid outing—he'll pitch this weekend against the Angels—could cement Cabrera's spot with the big club even after Riley returns. With a mid-90s fastball, a decent change, and the makings of a big-league curveball, Cabrera could celebrate his 23rd birthday later this month in Baltimore rather than in Triple-A. At a minimum, pitching-hungry teams in AL-only leagues should be making a play for Cabrera; if he shuts down Anaheim, combo-leaguers will be jumping on the bandwagon as well.
Akinori Otsuka, RP, Padres
It says something about this year's crop of rookie pitchers when the best of the lot is a 32-year-old former Japanese Leaguer who may or may not balk on every pitch he throws. The former Chunichi Dragons closer has been lights-out in a set-up role for the Pads, but from a fantasy perspective he's little more than Trevor Hoffman insurance. That said, if you're in an NL-only league choosing between some starter who might blow up your team ERA or getting a few quality innings from a set-up man, Otsuka is your guy.
Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians
The Cleveland bullpen is a mess, but if you're desperately seeking cheap saves, Betancourt might be the way to go. With 25 strikeouts and only one walk in 19.2 innings, he's certainly got the arm. Betancourt's velocity was down a bit earlier this season, but he's shown signs of life and hurled a scoreless inning his last time out. David Riske, Jose Jimenez, and Scott Stewart have done little to lay claim to getting the ball in the ninth inning, so Betancourt could end up being the top rookie fireman of the season. While that's akin to being the tallest jockey at Pimlico, a few saves might be the difference between contending for your league title and getting an early start on your football season.