Panzram
05-22-2004, 08:53 PM
Hot starts: believe it or not?
by Mike Harmon
May 20, 2004
It's been a fairly strange beginning to the MLB season. Two of the game's best shortstops are nowhere to be found. Nomar Garciaparra has yet to take an at-bat, and Derek Jeter is wallowing below the Mendoza line.
In Chicago, Sammy Sosa finds himself on the DL because he sneezed too hard. Forty-year-old hurlers are getting it done. Randy Johnson confounded the Atlanta Braves with a perfect game, and Roger Clemens is a blown save away from being 8-0.
Some of these stories sound fabricated, but they're all true. Every last one of them.
So, that brings me to the topic of the day. A number of players are off to hot starts in the batter's box or on the hill. I'm going to take a stand on whether I believe they'll continue their solid starts.
Let's play: H-Dog's Hit or Miss!
Matt Lawton, Cleveland Indians
Lawton has been one of the bright spots on the upstart Indians, providing veteran leadership among youngsters Travis Hafner, Jody Gerut and the red-hot Victor Martinez. His seven home runs, 27 RBIs and .321 average project to a season that would dwarf his 2000 All-Star campaign.
End game: Miss. Use Lawton as trade bait to those managers nursing injuries in your league and find yourself a quality starter. He's topped 20 HRs and hit .300 only once in his career – and those marks came in the same season. Two cautionary tales to boot, his career average is 23 points lower after the All-Star break and he has a history of injury.
Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles
Mora is one of the best stories in the Major Leagues this season. He's no longer bouncing from position to position and has established himself as an everyday third baseman. Job security evidently put his mind to ease, as he's responded with a .377 average, seven HRs and 28 RBI through the first six weeks.
Mora will see more RBI opportunities with the return of Jerry Hairston Jr. in the second leadoff spot. Similarly, the pitch selection will be better once Miguel Tejada and Rafael Palmeiro start dialing up the long balls. This trio already accounts for 85 RBI and we're not even through May!
End game:Hit. Mora is, to date, a .270 career hitter and his average will adjust accordingly. By way of recent example, Morgan Ensberg added 100 points to his average in less than two weeks. It takes a tremendous run in either event, but this type of success or failure can certainly occur. I'm not as caught up in his batting average as I am intrigued by the fact that this guy may steal 15-20 bases this season.
Steve Finley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Finley is off to a fine start, answering any questions about his age. He will miss a few games over the course of the season, but he consistently plays 140-150 games. Finley's three-HR game stands as a watermark for the season, but the six steals stand out.
Historically, Finley will steal more bases and hit for a higher average in the second half of the season. His power does drop somewhat, but not enough to be of concern.
End game:Hit. You're not going to find many 20-20 guys sitting around the waiver wire at this point of the season. He stands as a solid third outfielder and will get more licks upon Richie Sexson's return to the lineup.
Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers
This is the year the "real" Adrian Beltre stepped forward. OK, the fact that I had a baseball card of this guy seven years ago obscures the fact that he's now a crusty veteran of 25 years. His .351 batting average, 11 bombs and 31 RBI pop off the stat sheet.
It's clear he's no longer a stolen base threat, but does anyone have a problem with a 30-HR, 100 RBI third sacker?
End game: Direct hit. He's finally figured out how to hit in L.A., mashing at a .341 clip, and he'll get to beat on the bottom feeders in the NL in team ERA and WHIP (Arizona, San Francisco and Colorado) a lot as the season progresses.
Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
He's already exceeded his power numbers for all of 2003 and stands as the only player in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup hitting better than .300. Overbay's 38 RBIs were tied for the most in the majors until Scott Rolen passed him on Wednesday. Scott Podsednik continues to impress, already ripping off 20 steals, but the lineup has been otherwise lackluster.
End game: Miss. Hitting in the Milwaukee lineup doesn't lend itself to massive overall stats, and eventually he's going to face a steady diet of pitching from the Cubs and Astros. Take the quick profit on your investment and beef up your staff.
Vinny Castilla, Colorado Rockies
Castilla is poised for his best overall season since his last Colorado Rockies campaign. His HR and RBI totals are off to a tremendous start. The batting average isn't necessarily an aberration; he did have five straight .300-plus seasons in Colorado before a forgettable stint with the Devil Rays in 2000.
End game: Hit. He's a lifetime .339 hitter at Coors, and he has 59 more home games on the docket. Castilla also is durable, having played in 140 games or more in every season except one for the past decade.
Brad Penny, Florida Marlins
Fresh on the heels of his magical 2003 postseason, Penny rolled into 2004 like a locomotive out of control. His 2.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP stand among baseball's best, and he has a handful of victories to boot. It also helps to have the untouchable Armando Benitez closing it out.
End game: Miss. Penny has been outstanding out of the gate, taking advantage of having his first five starts against three bad offenses in Montreal, Atlanta and San Francisco. He usually struggles in the early part of the summer, which means that his ERA and WHIP revert back toward the means of 4.38 and 1.40, respectively. Take advantage of his hot start and see if you can steal a scuffling Mike Mussina and maybe a utility man to boot.
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
The pride of Team USA and the 10th overall pick in the '99 draft finally is putting it together. After posting 11 wins in each of the last three seasons, Sheets stands ready to push himself into the top tier of NL pitchers. He was named NL Player of the Week after his 18-strikeout performance against the hapless Atlanta Braves.
End game: Miss. Like Overbay above, the offense won't be there to boost Sheets' win total. He should greatly improve on past ERA and WHIP totals. Let someone else make that gamble. Pitching in the NL Central is a dangerous business.
Freddy Garcia, Seattle Mariners
Garcia has returned to the form that captured everyone's attention in 1999. Unfortunately he is receiving pathetic run support in Seattle. The return of Harmon and Matt Romig favorite Raul Ibanez to Seattle just hasn't sparked the offense as we'd hoped it would.
End game: Hit. The Mariners are not going to explode for a bunch of runs anytime soon, but the number of one- and two-run outings has got to decrease. That means that you'll get that fourth category eventually. Bob Melvin has to throw him a bone by giving him starts against Montreal and Pittsburgh during interleague play.
Jarrod Washburn, Anaheim Angels
Sure, Washburn's ERA and WHIP totals are bloated by his first couple of outings, but the fact of the matter is that this team has scored six or more runs in every one of his starts. They've topped double digits four times!
End game: Miss. He's run off to a 7-1 record, but the offensive firepower in Anaheim is dropping around him like flies. Troy Glaus is gone and Garret Anderson is still a question mark, leaving Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Guillen to battle the AL West.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox
Buehrle's 2003 season can be split into two halves. After an atrocious start, he rebounded to post a 14-win season with a 4.14 ERA. By today's standards, that's not necessarily awful. He picked up on the second half of the season by adding the strikeout to the repertoire. Buehrle likes to dance on the corners and doesn't throw particularly hard, meaning he'll give up his share of walks to damage your WHIP.
End game: Hit. The White Sox bullpen is firming up with Billy Koch re-establishing his position as the closer and southpaw Kelly Wunsch coming back from injury. The addition of strikeouts makes Buehrle more attractive, and it's only a matter of time before the bats of Carlos Lee, Frank Thomas and the crew wake up.
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter missed the entire 2003 season and is off to a tremendous start with St. Louis. He has had four quality starts over his first seven outings, posting respectable ERA (3.86), WHIP (1.11) and strikeout (31) totals. Carpenter certainly will be the beneficiary of solid run support. But with a career ERA of 4.78 and WHIP of 1.49, the potential for disaster exists every fifth day.
End game: Indirect Hit. Carpenter's next two scheduled starts (on the road at Chicago and Houston ) will set the table for the rest of his season. It's certain that your downside is minimal as you likely had picked him up via free agency. Don't be caught by the rising WHIP.
And one more guy I'm keeping an eye on.
Aaron Boone
A number of teams are already inquiring about Boone's rehab from the offseason basketball incident. With struggling or injured infielders, the thought of some automatic pop off the bench is intriguing to major league GMs.
End game: Under review. Information on his progress trickles in on occasion, but it's hard to tell if a return toward summer's end is feasible. With that said, if he ultimately is signed and activated, you can forget about Boone running in 2004. His sole contribution will be the longball against fresh-faced September callups. You likely have a spot on the bench for your "gamble" of the year.
There are countless others whose starts are up for debate. What about Lew Ford or C.C. Sabathia? How about the performance of Rondell White? I'll check back to see the short-term returns on these picks as the summer swoon approaches.
Next time I'll break down the injury bug hitting MLB clubhouses. It'll be a veritable who's who list. We just might be able to fill the room with prior All-Star selections.
by Mike Harmon
May 20, 2004
It's been a fairly strange beginning to the MLB season. Two of the game's best shortstops are nowhere to be found. Nomar Garciaparra has yet to take an at-bat, and Derek Jeter is wallowing below the Mendoza line.
In Chicago, Sammy Sosa finds himself on the DL because he sneezed too hard. Forty-year-old hurlers are getting it done. Randy Johnson confounded the Atlanta Braves with a perfect game, and Roger Clemens is a blown save away from being 8-0.
Some of these stories sound fabricated, but they're all true. Every last one of them.
So, that brings me to the topic of the day. A number of players are off to hot starts in the batter's box or on the hill. I'm going to take a stand on whether I believe they'll continue their solid starts.
Let's play: H-Dog's Hit or Miss!
Matt Lawton, Cleveland Indians
Lawton has been one of the bright spots on the upstart Indians, providing veteran leadership among youngsters Travis Hafner, Jody Gerut and the red-hot Victor Martinez. His seven home runs, 27 RBIs and .321 average project to a season that would dwarf his 2000 All-Star campaign.
End game: Miss. Use Lawton as trade bait to those managers nursing injuries in your league and find yourself a quality starter. He's topped 20 HRs and hit .300 only once in his career – and those marks came in the same season. Two cautionary tales to boot, his career average is 23 points lower after the All-Star break and he has a history of injury.
Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles
Mora is one of the best stories in the Major Leagues this season. He's no longer bouncing from position to position and has established himself as an everyday third baseman. Job security evidently put his mind to ease, as he's responded with a .377 average, seven HRs and 28 RBI through the first six weeks.
Mora will see more RBI opportunities with the return of Jerry Hairston Jr. in the second leadoff spot. Similarly, the pitch selection will be better once Miguel Tejada and Rafael Palmeiro start dialing up the long balls. This trio already accounts for 85 RBI and we're not even through May!
End game:Hit. Mora is, to date, a .270 career hitter and his average will adjust accordingly. By way of recent example, Morgan Ensberg added 100 points to his average in less than two weeks. It takes a tremendous run in either event, but this type of success or failure can certainly occur. I'm not as caught up in his batting average as I am intrigued by the fact that this guy may steal 15-20 bases this season.
Steve Finley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Finley is off to a fine start, answering any questions about his age. He will miss a few games over the course of the season, but he consistently plays 140-150 games. Finley's three-HR game stands as a watermark for the season, but the six steals stand out.
Historically, Finley will steal more bases and hit for a higher average in the second half of the season. His power does drop somewhat, but not enough to be of concern.
End game:Hit. You're not going to find many 20-20 guys sitting around the waiver wire at this point of the season. He stands as a solid third outfielder and will get more licks upon Richie Sexson's return to the lineup.
Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers
This is the year the "real" Adrian Beltre stepped forward. OK, the fact that I had a baseball card of this guy seven years ago obscures the fact that he's now a crusty veteran of 25 years. His .351 batting average, 11 bombs and 31 RBI pop off the stat sheet.
It's clear he's no longer a stolen base threat, but does anyone have a problem with a 30-HR, 100 RBI third sacker?
End game: Direct hit. He's finally figured out how to hit in L.A., mashing at a .341 clip, and he'll get to beat on the bottom feeders in the NL in team ERA and WHIP (Arizona, San Francisco and Colorado) a lot as the season progresses.
Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
He's already exceeded his power numbers for all of 2003 and stands as the only player in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup hitting better than .300. Overbay's 38 RBIs were tied for the most in the majors until Scott Rolen passed him on Wednesday. Scott Podsednik continues to impress, already ripping off 20 steals, but the lineup has been otherwise lackluster.
End game: Miss. Hitting in the Milwaukee lineup doesn't lend itself to massive overall stats, and eventually he's going to face a steady diet of pitching from the Cubs and Astros. Take the quick profit on your investment and beef up your staff.
Vinny Castilla, Colorado Rockies
Castilla is poised for his best overall season since his last Colorado Rockies campaign. His HR and RBI totals are off to a tremendous start. The batting average isn't necessarily an aberration; he did have five straight .300-plus seasons in Colorado before a forgettable stint with the Devil Rays in 2000.
End game: Hit. He's a lifetime .339 hitter at Coors, and he has 59 more home games on the docket. Castilla also is durable, having played in 140 games or more in every season except one for the past decade.
Brad Penny, Florida Marlins
Fresh on the heels of his magical 2003 postseason, Penny rolled into 2004 like a locomotive out of control. His 2.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP stand among baseball's best, and he has a handful of victories to boot. It also helps to have the untouchable Armando Benitez closing it out.
End game: Miss. Penny has been outstanding out of the gate, taking advantage of having his first five starts against three bad offenses in Montreal, Atlanta and San Francisco. He usually struggles in the early part of the summer, which means that his ERA and WHIP revert back toward the means of 4.38 and 1.40, respectively. Take advantage of his hot start and see if you can steal a scuffling Mike Mussina and maybe a utility man to boot.
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
The pride of Team USA and the 10th overall pick in the '99 draft finally is putting it together. After posting 11 wins in each of the last three seasons, Sheets stands ready to push himself into the top tier of NL pitchers. He was named NL Player of the Week after his 18-strikeout performance against the hapless Atlanta Braves.
End game: Miss. Like Overbay above, the offense won't be there to boost Sheets' win total. He should greatly improve on past ERA and WHIP totals. Let someone else make that gamble. Pitching in the NL Central is a dangerous business.
Freddy Garcia, Seattle Mariners
Garcia has returned to the form that captured everyone's attention in 1999. Unfortunately he is receiving pathetic run support in Seattle. The return of Harmon and Matt Romig favorite Raul Ibanez to Seattle just hasn't sparked the offense as we'd hoped it would.
End game: Hit. The Mariners are not going to explode for a bunch of runs anytime soon, but the number of one- and two-run outings has got to decrease. That means that you'll get that fourth category eventually. Bob Melvin has to throw him a bone by giving him starts against Montreal and Pittsburgh during interleague play.
Jarrod Washburn, Anaheim Angels
Sure, Washburn's ERA and WHIP totals are bloated by his first couple of outings, but the fact of the matter is that this team has scored six or more runs in every one of his starts. They've topped double digits four times!
End game: Miss. He's run off to a 7-1 record, but the offensive firepower in Anaheim is dropping around him like flies. Troy Glaus is gone and Garret Anderson is still a question mark, leaving Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Guillen to battle the AL West.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox
Buehrle's 2003 season can be split into two halves. After an atrocious start, he rebounded to post a 14-win season with a 4.14 ERA. By today's standards, that's not necessarily awful. He picked up on the second half of the season by adding the strikeout to the repertoire. Buehrle likes to dance on the corners and doesn't throw particularly hard, meaning he'll give up his share of walks to damage your WHIP.
End game: Hit. The White Sox bullpen is firming up with Billy Koch re-establishing his position as the closer and southpaw Kelly Wunsch coming back from injury. The addition of strikeouts makes Buehrle more attractive, and it's only a matter of time before the bats of Carlos Lee, Frank Thomas and the crew wake up.
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter missed the entire 2003 season and is off to a tremendous start with St. Louis. He has had four quality starts over his first seven outings, posting respectable ERA (3.86), WHIP (1.11) and strikeout (31) totals. Carpenter certainly will be the beneficiary of solid run support. But with a career ERA of 4.78 and WHIP of 1.49, the potential for disaster exists every fifth day.
End game: Indirect Hit. Carpenter's next two scheduled starts (on the road at Chicago and Houston ) will set the table for the rest of his season. It's certain that your downside is minimal as you likely had picked him up via free agency. Don't be caught by the rising WHIP.
And one more guy I'm keeping an eye on.
Aaron Boone
A number of teams are already inquiring about Boone's rehab from the offseason basketball incident. With struggling or injured infielders, the thought of some automatic pop off the bench is intriguing to major league GMs.
End game: Under review. Information on his progress trickles in on occasion, but it's hard to tell if a return toward summer's end is feasible. With that said, if he ultimately is signed and activated, you can forget about Boone running in 2004. His sole contribution will be the longball against fresh-faced September callups. You likely have a spot on the bench for your "gamble" of the year.
There are countless others whose starts are up for debate. What about Lew Ford or C.C. Sabathia? How about the performance of Rondell White? I'll check back to see the short-term returns on these picks as the summer swoon approaches.
Next time I'll break down the injury bug hitting MLB clubhouses. It'll be a veritable who's who list. We just might be able to fill the room with prior All-Star selections.