Cardinals 2002 team outlook

[amag]

Here I'm putting out my full-forced opinion on why, again, the Cards are the team to beat in the NL Central, and probably the team to beat in the National League. I'll go part by part, starting with defense, then offense, pitching, and depth.

Defense: A very solid defensive team. It's lead by the popular names up the middle, with an established Mike Matheny behind the plate who may be the best all-around defensive catcher in the NL; there are hustlers Fernando Vina and Edgar Renteria at the middle infield spots, and the spectacular Jim Edmonds in center field, probably the only player suited to play center field at Busch Stadium. On the right side this season will be a big improvement defensivley in Tino Martinez, and the very skilled J.D. Drew who, albeit his injury, boasts of a highly above average arm strength and range. And while many recognize Pujols for his hitting, it often goes unnoticed that when he is at his best position, third base, he is one of the better fielders you can have. At AAA ball he was said to be the best fielding 3bman in the league. In left field will probably be the former Ichiro Suzuki teammate in So Taguchi. While he's no Ichiro, he has a good arm and above average speed.
All in all, teams can't get much more solid defensivley in the majors.

Offense: Again, a solid area. Fernando Vina will be dependable, and last year showed a very good sign by putting up a career high in games played (154), and hitting .303. Renteria has alot of room for improvement, as well as the capability to improve just as much. He has the speed to be a top leadoff hitter, and soon should gain the on-base ability, or at least better it this year. Also adding to the speedy top-of-the order collection would be the aforementioned So Taguchi. From what I know he should be capable of 10-15 homers, a .280 batting average, and 10 steals... an offensive copy of Kerry Robinson. With the speedy/high average hitters at each end of the lineup, the big hitters come.
First of all, the new anchor in the Post-Mcgwire era for St. Louis is Albert Pujols he should be counted on as a 40-homer .320 hitter... Dare I say a Chipper Jones? Possibly...minus about 15-20 points in the OBP. Jim Edmonds should be back on this year, a fair bet for 35 homers, a .315 average, and a big part in the lineup. J.D. Drew should impress this year, as his 01 totals of 27 home runs, 18 doubles, and .323 average came in only 2/3 of a season due to a broken hand. Could be a 40 homer hitter. Drew should hit third, with Pujols fourth to sperate the numerous left-handed power hitters in the lineup. Probably in the sixth spot will be lefty Tino Martinez. He knows how to win, and is a clutch performer... and for those reasons alone he will be extremley important; and that's not to mention he'll be a healthy daily perfomer... keeping bench players in bench roles. Mike Matheny actually does have talent to be a good hitter if he worked extremley hard at it, but everyone knows his role is as a defensive player.

Starting pitching: Despite the success of Bud Smith, Matt Morris, and Woody Williams, Darryl Kile remains the staff ace. He shown stability and confidence, and will again be the opening day starter. Behind the ace-caliber Kile, is ace-caliber Matt Morris. Morris has three awesome pitches in his 4 seamer, a powerful sinking 2-seam fastball, and a very effective curve. After him is veteran Woody Williams, who proved to be very important last year in the Card's playoff run. Then there is Bud Smith... although very talented, it's his excellent control and masterful changeup that will carry him through a fine career. The fifth spot is wide open... and as the season go on the main fighters for it should be Garret Stephenson and Rick Ankiel. You all know about the stuff Ankiel has, but it must be known that Garret Stephenson earned his 16 wins in 2000. If he shows he's that same pitcher in 02 he will be more than the team actually needs... and can be considered good trade bait, or be servicable if certain things don't click for the top four starters.
If things do click, however, you may have the best pitching staff in the league on your hands.

Releif Pitching: What was the teams weakness in 2001, should be a strength in the 2002 season. Instead of plugging in certain middle releivers and slot fillers, they added Jason Isringhausen. Although he may not be a stud closer, Issy he ended last season on a good note going 17 for 20 in save chances, blowing only one of his final 13. Signing him pushed each pitchers role back one step, and now they probably boast of the best setup combo in the majors with Dave Veres and Steve Kline. Both of which are extremley durable- Veres was often a 2-inning closer in previous season, and Kline made 89 appearnces yet had a 1.80 E.R.A.- so go figure.

I may edit or add to this very shortly

[KingFish]

Good points all around amag. Very little that I disagree with. But there is just a bit here and there. There is always that "bit here and there", to discuss, right? Assuming that everything goes as planned your take is a good one. Seldom in life or in baseball does everything go as planned though.

Pitching
Stephenson coming off Tommy John surgery will most certainly be treated with tender loving minimum innings for quite some time. Maybe as much as the full season like the Cards approach with Morris. Ankeil still has to prove he can pitch and not just throw nasty stuff all over the place. Reports I'm getting are not very positive to date on his progress but we can all say a silent prayer for him.

There could be much worse things than not having a for sure fifth starter. The Cards have other arms that we are all generally aware of. Their farm system has some very impressive arms that could spot in here and there for them to gain ML experience and buy some time for both the potential fifth starters. Here's three of them;

Jim Journell, RHP: Can hit 96 MPH and throws strikes with his slider. As long as he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he could be a great help soon.

Scotty Layfield, RHP: Saved 31 with 1.84 ERA and 66/18 K/BB ratio at Class A Potomac, but should move quickly on the basis of his 92 MPH sinker and hard slider.

Josh Pearce, RHP: Throws 90 with decent slider and changeup. Went 10-12 between Double-A and Triple-A, with 132/46 K/BB ratio.

So there shouldn't not be a major concern with that fifth slot if things don't go as planned right off the bat.

Although Izzy did blow a record tying nine saves last season he is still a very valuable addition. It was becoming obvious that Tony was forced to rely on Veres far too much for his own tastes. Izzy may not be defineable as a true "stud closer" but he certainly fits in well and you have to give them two thumbs up for a major upgrade to the pen.

Defense
Your defensive take is pretty sound. A small flaw perhaps is Edmonds playing style. He certainly makes some remarkable plays
but he does it at great cost to his body. That darn DL is only one highlight film slip away. He reminds me of a Lenny Dykstra with even better physical skills. As long as his health is there in center the team is rock solid up the middle though.

Pujols at third is an OK glove with OK range and good arm. Unforunately his FP was .938 at 3B versus .984 at 1B. Those are not great numbers by any means but his youth bodes well for the Cardinals defensive future at the hot corner. The fact that he was moved back and forth between positions was also a negative factor. Let him settle in at third and gain some experience and a .990+ FP is a distinct possibility.

Martinez was not really aquired by the Cards just for his defense as we all know so well. None the less, Is he a great defensive improvement over the recently departed Big Mac? At least that's what most folks think. If you look at the numbers though it tells a slightly different story. During the period from 1997 through the 2000 season Mac's FP were,
.990, .995, .992, .990. Tino's were, .994, .992, .995, .994. So it appears Tino is slightly better but the important thing is age, Tino is 34 now and Mac is 38. Tino should have been putting up better fielding numbers because he was younger with better range. Typically as players age their FP slowly declines. Hey it's to be expected. Tino did post a very surprising .996 last season but realistically a .993 or so should be expected. Tino's playing time has declined for three consecutive seasons as well. From 158 to 154 to 149 so you can probably project another slight dip to say 145 games or so. Career numbers for Mac are .993 and Tino .995. That .002 is significant though. My point is I don't see Tino getting much better, in fact the FP may slide a hair and if it does they are still decent numbers but certainly not some great leap in defensive ability. About a wash with Mac is a better prediction IMHO.

Offense
Pujols as a rookie carried the Cards for the entire season. Even when Drew went down, even when Mac couldn't go, even though he was a rookie for goodness sakes. The man appears to be a hitting machine. Now it would be quite a stretch to think he could put up even better numbers but I've seen stranger things happen. He is only 21 years old, that is amazing! Are we sure the Cards aren't lying about his age? Probably not huh? What a pure hitter. I just don't see a sophmore jinx in his future either and numbers approaching or even exceeding his outstanding 2001 levels should be counted on. And that ain't too darn shabby!

Martinez
Well he's 34 now. Not the youngster he once was. He popped 34 dongs last season which was the most he had hit since 1997 when he hit 44. He hit .280 which is the most since 1998 when he hit .281 and he is a lifetime .274 hitter. Without taking park effects or being in a new lineup into consideration I would think that 28 hrs. and a .270 BA is about all you can really bank on. Of course the change of scenary may rejuvenate his stroke and he isn't that old that he couldn't have a career year. Heck look at Bonds last season as a prime example of what those old guys can do when they are motivated.

Drew
Now here is a guy that projects to have a truly remarkable season ahead. He's the right age, at the right time and on the right team. His BA, Hr's, rbi's, OPS, OBP, SLG %'s have all risen three consecutive years in a row. Entering only his fifth year at age 26 translates into what could be career numbers for him. He is most likely the most important yet least talked about offensive threat the Cards have. Mark the Fish's word, he's going off the charts this year. Stand back, hitter at work. (Knock on wood that broken bones and the injury bugs don't bite!)


All in all, I like your Cards take and think they will win their division even with the other teams making their own moves and it is quite possible that come October they may be getting their ring sizes taken!

I'm glad you took the time to do your write up on my old home town team. If was a pleasure kicking in my two cents worth.