Panzram
05-27-2004, 03:44 AM
Waiting for Help: Part Deux
Last week we covered the prospects with the best chance of being called up and making an impact in the National League. As promised, here are the American League candidates.
Hitters
Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN -- The best hitter in the minors is currently batting .360 with nine homers, a .420 OBP, a .647 SLG and 20 strikeouts against 15 walks. So why is he still in the minors? Don't the Twins know that he has nothing left to prove as a hitter there? Yes, they do. The problem is twofold. First, where would he play? The Twins aren't about to bench Doug Mientkiewicz, even though he's struggling a bit. The return of Torii Hunter has pushed the red-hot Lew Ford to DH. And when Joe Mauer returns, Matt LeCroy will need some DH time as well. Second, the organization feels that Morneau needs to play regularly at first base to prepare to eventually succeed Mientkiewicz there. Eyebrows were raised when the Twins signed their first baseman to a two-year contract last winter, but all that really did is make him a more attractive candidate to trade either during the season or after it. Morneau could be called up any day now if the Twins feel he's simply too hot to hold back, but it also shouldn't shock anyone if they wait weeks or even months. When he does eventually get called up, bet on him to immediately hit for power and average.
Jeremy Reed, OF, CWS -- Now that Aaron Rowand has lost his center field job to Willie Harris -- by virtue of Juan Uribe moving to second base -- there's less of an urgent need to call up Reed. However, the Sox still feel their lineup is unbalanced and would love to add another left-handed hitter, a description which fits Reed, who is currently hitting .295 and has reached base safely in all but two games at Triple-A Charlotte. Reed has yet to hit a home run this season and is only hitting .250 since May 1, two other reasons why he has yet to be called up. But there's still an excellent chance he'll be in the majors for the better part of the second half of the season.
B.J. Upton, SS, TB -- Upton hit .327 with two homers and three steals in 29 games with Double-A Montgomery, and the Devil Rays made plans to call him up last week. At the last minute, they decided to send him to Triple-A Durham, instead. Upton is 6-for-20 with two homers so far at Durham, and it's clear that he's on the cusp of a callup. The Rays appear ready to overlook the fact that he's still making a ton of errors -- 13 in 27 games at shortstop -- and let him learn on the job in the majors. How much fantasy value he has upon being called up will depend heavily on how much he runs. At this point, Upton would probably hit for a decent average and only limited power. So his real potential upside is in stolen bases. He stole 40 bases in 130 games last season but has only attempted three (succeeding all three times) this season.
Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE -- The outstanding play of Matt Lawton and Jody Gerut has settled the Cleveland outfield for now. However, with Coco Crisp struggling, Sizemore could be just one month-long hot streak away from his big league promotion. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened yet, as he's hitting just .243 with Triple-A Buffalo. On the plus side, he already has 17 walks this season.
Mike Restovich, OF, MIN -- The Twins have more outfield talent than any team in the majors. Forget about their outstanding starting trio and you still have Lew Ford (.350 BA, 25 RBI), Mike Ryan (.359 BA) and current starting third baseman Michael Cuddyer (3 HR in 81 AB). And then there's Restovich, who only has 10 home runs so far with Triple-A Rochester. As always, the two problems for Restovich are the talent above him and the pitches that get past him; he has 32 strikeouts in 151 at-bats. That weakness would only be exploited further in the majors. Barring a series of injuries or trades, Restovich won't get much meaningful major league playing time this season.
Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN -- Look, yet another Twins player who is being held back by talent from above. Cristian Guzman is having his best season since 2001, so the Twins can afford to be patient with Bartlett. The 24-year-old is hitting .339 with a .412 OBP and a .504 SLG for Triple-A Rochester. Bartlett doesn't hit many homers (one this year) but can steal a base (4-for-5). He suffered a broken wrist earlier this month but is expected back by mid-June. If the injury doesn't affect his hitting after the return, and if Luis Rivas continues to struggle, perhaps the Twins will consider promoting Bartlett to play second base.
Calvin Pickering, 1B, KC -- Pickering really isn't a great callup candidate, but since he received so much press early in the season he's worth mentioning. After an insane April in which he hit .361 with 12 homers with Triple-A Omaha, Pickering is hitting just .219 with one dong so far in May. He's also been sidelined with a concussion for the last week. It would take an injury to Ken Harvey or Mike Sweeney, at the very least, for him to be seen in Kansas City this summer.
Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips, 2B/SS, CLE -- There are whispers that Omar Vizquel may be traded, perhaps to the Cubs, later this summer and when that happens either Peralta or Phillips should get the call. Both can play second base or shortstop, with Peralta also seeing time at the hot corner this season. Peralta is second in the International League in batting with a .346 average, but he's been shaky in the field this season and doesn't bring much to the plate other than that high average. Phillips hit .369 in April but has been in a funk ever since and has dropped all the way to .270. He's also just 4-for-9 in stolen base attempts.
Marcus Thames, OF, DET -- Never afforded a fair chance to prove himself with the Yankees, Thames is biding his time waiting for one in the Motor City. He's now 27, so you have to take his Triple-A numbers with a grain of salt, but he's hitting an impressive .328 with 11 homers for Toledo. The Tigers are getting Dmitri Young back soon, but the next time a job opens up they may consider Thames over Craig Monroe.
Pitchers
Zack Greinke, RHP, KC -- The Royals are really babying Greinke, keeping him on strict inning and pitch counts. In his most recent start yesterday, he completed the sixth inning for the first time all season. His numbers, particularly a 2.51 ERA and 3.8 K/BB, are very impressive. At issue is this: If the Royals aren't going to contend this season, do they really want to start the arbitration clock on Greinke so soon? Perhaps more importantly, do they really want to put more pressure on their suspect bullpen with a guy whom they don't want to extend? Despite those questions, the Royals could, at any time, move Jeremy Affeldt to the bullpen and promote Greinke, and he's likely to be successful if/when that happens.
Juan Dominguez, RHP, TEX -- The Rangers have gotten surprisingly good work from their young pitchers this season, but there's little doubt that they'll need to call in more reinforcements eventually, and Dominguez is likely to be one of them. Through seven starts with Triple-A Oklahoma, Dominguez has a 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB.
John Maine, RHP, BAL -- After blowing through five starts with Double-A Bowie (2.25 ERA, 34 K, 7 BB, 28 IP), Maine has struggled a bit with Triple-A Ottawa. In three starts covering 17 innings, he has a 4.76 ERA with only nine strikeouts and six walks. But if he improves, he may get a call the next time the O's need a starter.
J.D. Durbin, RHP, MIN -- Seth Greisinger has made a couple of decent starts in a row, but there are few who think he's the long-term answer for the fifth spot in the Minnesota rotation. Neither, most likely, is Rick Helling. One player who might be is the 22-year-old Durbin. All he's done in six starts with Double-A New Britain is post a 2.08 ERA with 35 Ks and only nine walks in 34 2/3 innings.
Kyle Denney, RHP, CLE -- While Jeremy Guthrie has the hype, Denney has been the best pitcher on the farm for the Indians this season. In seven starts with Triple-A Buffalo, the 26-year-old has a 2.45 ERA with 43 strikeouts against only 34 hits and nine walks in 44 innings. On May 9, he threw an eight-hit shutout against Toledo.
Franklyn German, RHP, DET -- True, Ugueth Urbina is cruising along as Detroit's closer, but when the Tigers fall out of the playoff race they may be tempted to deal him. That decision will be easier if German continues to pitch as he has thus far for Triple-A Toledo. In 15 appearances, he has 10 saves and 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings. Walks are still his main problem, as he has seven already. But if Urbina is dealt, German will get a chance to prove that he's gotten it together.
Back to the N.L.
Last week I neglected to mention arguably the best story of the season so far, Cardinals right-hander Bradley Thompson. The 22-year-old former 16th-round draft choice has gone 43 1/3 innings this season without allowing a run! And he finished last season with 8 2/3 scoreless innings, so he's gone 52 straight scoreless innings. Thompson has allowed an incredible 22 hits so far, with 32 strikeouts and five walks. No word on whether he's on the Cardinals callup radar screen, but this is quite a showing for a player who Baseball America listed as the 25th best prospect in the St. Louis system going into the season.
Last week we covered the prospects with the best chance of being called up and making an impact in the National League. As promised, here are the American League candidates.
Hitters
Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN -- The best hitter in the minors is currently batting .360 with nine homers, a .420 OBP, a .647 SLG and 20 strikeouts against 15 walks. So why is he still in the minors? Don't the Twins know that he has nothing left to prove as a hitter there? Yes, they do. The problem is twofold. First, where would he play? The Twins aren't about to bench Doug Mientkiewicz, even though he's struggling a bit. The return of Torii Hunter has pushed the red-hot Lew Ford to DH. And when Joe Mauer returns, Matt LeCroy will need some DH time as well. Second, the organization feels that Morneau needs to play regularly at first base to prepare to eventually succeed Mientkiewicz there. Eyebrows were raised when the Twins signed their first baseman to a two-year contract last winter, but all that really did is make him a more attractive candidate to trade either during the season or after it. Morneau could be called up any day now if the Twins feel he's simply too hot to hold back, but it also shouldn't shock anyone if they wait weeks or even months. When he does eventually get called up, bet on him to immediately hit for power and average.
Jeremy Reed, OF, CWS -- Now that Aaron Rowand has lost his center field job to Willie Harris -- by virtue of Juan Uribe moving to second base -- there's less of an urgent need to call up Reed. However, the Sox still feel their lineup is unbalanced and would love to add another left-handed hitter, a description which fits Reed, who is currently hitting .295 and has reached base safely in all but two games at Triple-A Charlotte. Reed has yet to hit a home run this season and is only hitting .250 since May 1, two other reasons why he has yet to be called up. But there's still an excellent chance he'll be in the majors for the better part of the second half of the season.
B.J. Upton, SS, TB -- Upton hit .327 with two homers and three steals in 29 games with Double-A Montgomery, and the Devil Rays made plans to call him up last week. At the last minute, they decided to send him to Triple-A Durham, instead. Upton is 6-for-20 with two homers so far at Durham, and it's clear that he's on the cusp of a callup. The Rays appear ready to overlook the fact that he's still making a ton of errors -- 13 in 27 games at shortstop -- and let him learn on the job in the majors. How much fantasy value he has upon being called up will depend heavily on how much he runs. At this point, Upton would probably hit for a decent average and only limited power. So his real potential upside is in stolen bases. He stole 40 bases in 130 games last season but has only attempted three (succeeding all three times) this season.
Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE -- The outstanding play of Matt Lawton and Jody Gerut has settled the Cleveland outfield for now. However, with Coco Crisp struggling, Sizemore could be just one month-long hot streak away from his big league promotion. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened yet, as he's hitting just .243 with Triple-A Buffalo. On the plus side, he already has 17 walks this season.
Mike Restovich, OF, MIN -- The Twins have more outfield talent than any team in the majors. Forget about their outstanding starting trio and you still have Lew Ford (.350 BA, 25 RBI), Mike Ryan (.359 BA) and current starting third baseman Michael Cuddyer (3 HR in 81 AB). And then there's Restovich, who only has 10 home runs so far with Triple-A Rochester. As always, the two problems for Restovich are the talent above him and the pitches that get past him; he has 32 strikeouts in 151 at-bats. That weakness would only be exploited further in the majors. Barring a series of injuries or trades, Restovich won't get much meaningful major league playing time this season.
Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN -- Look, yet another Twins player who is being held back by talent from above. Cristian Guzman is having his best season since 2001, so the Twins can afford to be patient with Bartlett. The 24-year-old is hitting .339 with a .412 OBP and a .504 SLG for Triple-A Rochester. Bartlett doesn't hit many homers (one this year) but can steal a base (4-for-5). He suffered a broken wrist earlier this month but is expected back by mid-June. If the injury doesn't affect his hitting after the return, and if Luis Rivas continues to struggle, perhaps the Twins will consider promoting Bartlett to play second base.
Calvin Pickering, 1B, KC -- Pickering really isn't a great callup candidate, but since he received so much press early in the season he's worth mentioning. After an insane April in which he hit .361 with 12 homers with Triple-A Omaha, Pickering is hitting just .219 with one dong so far in May. He's also been sidelined with a concussion for the last week. It would take an injury to Ken Harvey or Mike Sweeney, at the very least, for him to be seen in Kansas City this summer.
Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips, 2B/SS, CLE -- There are whispers that Omar Vizquel may be traded, perhaps to the Cubs, later this summer and when that happens either Peralta or Phillips should get the call. Both can play second base or shortstop, with Peralta also seeing time at the hot corner this season. Peralta is second in the International League in batting with a .346 average, but he's been shaky in the field this season and doesn't bring much to the plate other than that high average. Phillips hit .369 in April but has been in a funk ever since and has dropped all the way to .270. He's also just 4-for-9 in stolen base attempts.
Marcus Thames, OF, DET -- Never afforded a fair chance to prove himself with the Yankees, Thames is biding his time waiting for one in the Motor City. He's now 27, so you have to take his Triple-A numbers with a grain of salt, but he's hitting an impressive .328 with 11 homers for Toledo. The Tigers are getting Dmitri Young back soon, but the next time a job opens up they may consider Thames over Craig Monroe.
Pitchers
Zack Greinke, RHP, KC -- The Royals are really babying Greinke, keeping him on strict inning and pitch counts. In his most recent start yesterday, he completed the sixth inning for the first time all season. His numbers, particularly a 2.51 ERA and 3.8 K/BB, are very impressive. At issue is this: If the Royals aren't going to contend this season, do they really want to start the arbitration clock on Greinke so soon? Perhaps more importantly, do they really want to put more pressure on their suspect bullpen with a guy whom they don't want to extend? Despite those questions, the Royals could, at any time, move Jeremy Affeldt to the bullpen and promote Greinke, and he's likely to be successful if/when that happens.
Juan Dominguez, RHP, TEX -- The Rangers have gotten surprisingly good work from their young pitchers this season, but there's little doubt that they'll need to call in more reinforcements eventually, and Dominguez is likely to be one of them. Through seven starts with Triple-A Oklahoma, Dominguez has a 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB.
John Maine, RHP, BAL -- After blowing through five starts with Double-A Bowie (2.25 ERA, 34 K, 7 BB, 28 IP), Maine has struggled a bit with Triple-A Ottawa. In three starts covering 17 innings, he has a 4.76 ERA with only nine strikeouts and six walks. But if he improves, he may get a call the next time the O's need a starter.
J.D. Durbin, RHP, MIN -- Seth Greisinger has made a couple of decent starts in a row, but there are few who think he's the long-term answer for the fifth spot in the Minnesota rotation. Neither, most likely, is Rick Helling. One player who might be is the 22-year-old Durbin. All he's done in six starts with Double-A New Britain is post a 2.08 ERA with 35 Ks and only nine walks in 34 2/3 innings.
Kyle Denney, RHP, CLE -- While Jeremy Guthrie has the hype, Denney has been the best pitcher on the farm for the Indians this season. In seven starts with Triple-A Buffalo, the 26-year-old has a 2.45 ERA with 43 strikeouts against only 34 hits and nine walks in 44 innings. On May 9, he threw an eight-hit shutout against Toledo.
Franklyn German, RHP, DET -- True, Ugueth Urbina is cruising along as Detroit's closer, but when the Tigers fall out of the playoff race they may be tempted to deal him. That decision will be easier if German continues to pitch as he has thus far for Triple-A Toledo. In 15 appearances, he has 10 saves and 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings. Walks are still his main problem, as he has seven already. But if Urbina is dealt, German will get a chance to prove that he's gotten it together.
Back to the N.L.
Last week I neglected to mention arguably the best story of the season so far, Cardinals right-hander Bradley Thompson. The 22-year-old former 16th-round draft choice has gone 43 1/3 innings this season without allowing a run! And he finished last season with 8 2/3 scoreless innings, so he's gone 52 straight scoreless innings. Thompson has allowed an incredible 22 hits so far, with 32 strikeouts and five walks. No word on whether he's on the Cardinals callup radar screen, but this is quite a showing for a player who Baseball America listed as the 25th best prospect in the St. Louis system going into the season.