Panzram
05-30-2004, 02:24 AM
Analyzing this season's surprises
By John Benson - SportingNews
If draft day were today, a lot of people would bid $30 or more for Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora. On our actual draft day eight weeks ago, nobody bid $30 for Mora (if anyone did, please e-mail me and tell me why, so I can learn from your methods.
I predicted a career-best year across the board for Mora in 2004, but not as good as what we've seen so far. Mora, 32, came into the 2004 season with a .262 career average. In five major league seasons, he had accumulated a total of 49 homers. While his .317 average in 2003 was encouraging, injuries ruined his second half. Mora hit .349 before the All-Star break and .188 after.
So what's new with Mora in 2004? One factor in his success is that he has been locked into the No. 2 slot in the Orioles' batting order. He sees a lot of good pitches, especially fastballs, in the strike zone. Mora had some success (including a .337 average) batting second in 2003, although in the three years before that, Mora did better batting sixth or seventh than second.
While nobody thinks Mora is a .390 hitter, it is time to recognize that he has become a reliable .300-plus hitter. On May 8, Mora began a streak of 32-for-70 (.457) with six homers.
Other surprises:
Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles. Baltimore's leadoff man is one of the reasons Mora has been having so much fun at the plate this year. Roberts is on a pace to steal 59 bases, and that kind of speedy aggressiveness has a lot of pitchers looking over their shoulders (literally) when Roberts is on base and Mora is batting.
The pitcher is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he throws a breaking ball, Roberts is more likely to get a steal; if he throws a fastball, Mora is more likely to get a hit. While Roberts' 23 steals in 2003 were a career high, his true potential remains untapped.
Roberts' success has (at least briefly) turned Jerry Hairston into a backup. Since Hairston returned to the lineup May 13, he has been used mainly as a DH, and he got his first major league start as an outfielder. The possibility that Hairston or Roberts could get traded is higher now than it was in March, when rumors abounded.
Juan Uribe, IF, White Sox. Although it was predictable that Uribe would reach double digits in homers and steals and that he would be one of the best non-starters to grab on draft day, a .346 batting average in his first 162 at-bats wasn't so foreseeable.
Uribe has been cutting into the playing time of second baseman Willie Harris and shortstop Jose Valentin (who was on the DL with a hamstring pull) and has played more games than either of those nominal starters.
When a player leaves Colorado, his batting average usually drops. Uribe hit just .258 in three seasons with the Rockies, and now he has found his stroke with the White Sox. What is the reason for the big change? One factor is Uribe's youth; few players get to the majors at age 21 like Uribe did in 2001. Most players who get to the majors that quickly go on to become stars, and most of them continue to show improvement until about 27.
Uribe is one of those "age 26 and under with experience" type of players who can give an appearance of having reached an established level in the majors, when in fact he still is learning and improving. (Roberts is another player in this category.)
In the big picture, Uribe's surge in 2004 shouldn't be any more surprising than a breakthrough year coming from one of his 24-year-old counterparts now toiling at the Double-A level. While Uribe might not be a .340 hitter, he can be expected to maintain a helpful batting average in addition to his previously visible power and speed. It will be difficult to keep him in a reserve role in the future.
Matt Lawton, OF, Indians. He has reached 20 homers before (1998), has stolen 20-plus bases in a season (1999-2001) and has batted over .300 (2000), but he never has done all three in the same year. So far, he is on a pace to pass all three marks easily.
Will Lawton keep this up all year? I doubt it. Getting 20 steals will be the easiest feat for him given his fast start, but it would be premature to ring up the cash register on that accomplishment. Getting 20 homers is about a 50/50 proposition and is helped by the fact that he is on track to get a career high in at-bats in 2004, despite missing two games already with a hip strain.
Batting .300 is least likely for him; Lawton hit .236 and .249 in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Those who point to the fact that Lawton's 2002 and 2003 campaigns were impaired by injuries also are pointing to another reason to suspect that Lawton's April-May performance won't last a full year: He has been injury-prone.
Steve Finley, OF, Diamondbacks. He is on a pace to hit more than 40 homers in 2004. His career high was 35, four years ago. What is especially surprising this year is that Finley began the season in the leadoff spot, and he wasn't expected to hit for power in that role. Now he is back in his usual No. 5 spot in the batting order. Shortly after returning there, Finley produced a streak of 34-for-95 (.358) with 13 homers from April 27 to May 24.
Being happy and comfortable in a familiar role and responding well is one thing; hitting one homer every seven at-bats or so, all year, is something else. The 39-year-old Finley will cool off.
Jeromy Burnitz, OF, Rockies. He hit .215 in 2002 and .239 in 2003 (slipping to .204 after the All-Star break in '03). The optimists, who figured hitting in Colorado would help Burnitz, have been correct so far. Burnitz was hitting .326 with a .396 on-base percentage and .708 slugging percentage at home, versus .244-.322-.538 on the road, after his first 167 at-bats this year.
The basic method for considering the full-year outlook for any player whose performance is surprising (whether good or bad) is to ask whether there is any reason to explain the change from expected form.
When a reason is identifiable, we go back and rethink our preseason expectations. When there is no discernible reason to explain a surge or slump, the work of Bart Giamatti's mythical goddess "Dame Mutability" (otherwise known as randomness or luck) is often the best way to explain what we are seeing on the field.
By John Benson - SportingNews
If draft day were today, a lot of people would bid $30 or more for Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora. On our actual draft day eight weeks ago, nobody bid $30 for Mora (if anyone did, please e-mail me and tell me why, so I can learn from your methods.
I predicted a career-best year across the board for Mora in 2004, but not as good as what we've seen so far. Mora, 32, came into the 2004 season with a .262 career average. In five major league seasons, he had accumulated a total of 49 homers. While his .317 average in 2003 was encouraging, injuries ruined his second half. Mora hit .349 before the All-Star break and .188 after.
So what's new with Mora in 2004? One factor in his success is that he has been locked into the No. 2 slot in the Orioles' batting order. He sees a lot of good pitches, especially fastballs, in the strike zone. Mora had some success (including a .337 average) batting second in 2003, although in the three years before that, Mora did better batting sixth or seventh than second.
While nobody thinks Mora is a .390 hitter, it is time to recognize that he has become a reliable .300-plus hitter. On May 8, Mora began a streak of 32-for-70 (.457) with six homers.
Other surprises:
Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles. Baltimore's leadoff man is one of the reasons Mora has been having so much fun at the plate this year. Roberts is on a pace to steal 59 bases, and that kind of speedy aggressiveness has a lot of pitchers looking over their shoulders (literally) when Roberts is on base and Mora is batting.
The pitcher is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he throws a breaking ball, Roberts is more likely to get a steal; if he throws a fastball, Mora is more likely to get a hit. While Roberts' 23 steals in 2003 were a career high, his true potential remains untapped.
Roberts' success has (at least briefly) turned Jerry Hairston into a backup. Since Hairston returned to the lineup May 13, he has been used mainly as a DH, and he got his first major league start as an outfielder. The possibility that Hairston or Roberts could get traded is higher now than it was in March, when rumors abounded.
Juan Uribe, IF, White Sox. Although it was predictable that Uribe would reach double digits in homers and steals and that he would be one of the best non-starters to grab on draft day, a .346 batting average in his first 162 at-bats wasn't so foreseeable.
Uribe has been cutting into the playing time of second baseman Willie Harris and shortstop Jose Valentin (who was on the DL with a hamstring pull) and has played more games than either of those nominal starters.
When a player leaves Colorado, his batting average usually drops. Uribe hit just .258 in three seasons with the Rockies, and now he has found his stroke with the White Sox. What is the reason for the big change? One factor is Uribe's youth; few players get to the majors at age 21 like Uribe did in 2001. Most players who get to the majors that quickly go on to become stars, and most of them continue to show improvement until about 27.
Uribe is one of those "age 26 and under with experience" type of players who can give an appearance of having reached an established level in the majors, when in fact he still is learning and improving. (Roberts is another player in this category.)
In the big picture, Uribe's surge in 2004 shouldn't be any more surprising than a breakthrough year coming from one of his 24-year-old counterparts now toiling at the Double-A level. While Uribe might not be a .340 hitter, he can be expected to maintain a helpful batting average in addition to his previously visible power and speed. It will be difficult to keep him in a reserve role in the future.
Matt Lawton, OF, Indians. He has reached 20 homers before (1998), has stolen 20-plus bases in a season (1999-2001) and has batted over .300 (2000), but he never has done all three in the same year. So far, he is on a pace to pass all three marks easily.
Will Lawton keep this up all year? I doubt it. Getting 20 steals will be the easiest feat for him given his fast start, but it would be premature to ring up the cash register on that accomplishment. Getting 20 homers is about a 50/50 proposition and is helped by the fact that he is on track to get a career high in at-bats in 2004, despite missing two games already with a hip strain.
Batting .300 is least likely for him; Lawton hit .236 and .249 in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Those who point to the fact that Lawton's 2002 and 2003 campaigns were impaired by injuries also are pointing to another reason to suspect that Lawton's April-May performance won't last a full year: He has been injury-prone.
Steve Finley, OF, Diamondbacks. He is on a pace to hit more than 40 homers in 2004. His career high was 35, four years ago. What is especially surprising this year is that Finley began the season in the leadoff spot, and he wasn't expected to hit for power in that role. Now he is back in his usual No. 5 spot in the batting order. Shortly after returning there, Finley produced a streak of 34-for-95 (.358) with 13 homers from April 27 to May 24.
Being happy and comfortable in a familiar role and responding well is one thing; hitting one homer every seven at-bats or so, all year, is something else. The 39-year-old Finley will cool off.
Jeromy Burnitz, OF, Rockies. He hit .215 in 2002 and .239 in 2003 (slipping to .204 after the All-Star break in '03). The optimists, who figured hitting in Colorado would help Burnitz, have been correct so far. Burnitz was hitting .326 with a .396 on-base percentage and .708 slugging percentage at home, versus .244-.322-.538 on the road, after his first 167 at-bats this year.
The basic method for considering the full-year outlook for any player whose performance is surprising (whether good or bad) is to ask whether there is any reason to explain the change from expected form.
When a reason is identifiable, we go back and rethink our preseason expectations. When there is no discernible reason to explain a surge or slump, the work of Bart Giamatti's mythical goddess "Dame Mutability" (otherwise known as randomness or luck) is often the best way to explain what we are seeing on the field.