Panzram
05-31-2004, 07:57 PM
Solving the closer riddle
By GREG AMBROSIUS
When it comes to closers, nothing is guaranteed. So it should come as no surprise to fantasy owners this year that securing saves is as unpredictable as ever. You take the good with the bad and look for new closers whenever they are named, right?
We've seen three new closers this week alone and even those three aren't guarantees. But beggers can't be choosy, so you have to jump when you have the chance to acquire cheap saves. This week is a perfect example of that.
In case you didn't see it, Arizona promoted 11-year MLB veteran Scott Service from Triple-A Tucson and have tentatively named him the team's new closer. Service, who has 16 career saves, was 5-0 with a 3.68 ERA and eight saves at Tucson. He replaces Jose Valverde, who was 0-2 with three saves in five chances, a 4.81 ERA and six home runs in 24.1 IP. Opponents hit .417 off him during his last four outings as his ERA swelled to 12.00. Service, 37, pitched two scoreless innings during his first outing and has a chance to be a good in-season pickup for astute fantasy-leaguers.
The bullpen has been so bad in Cleveland this year that the Indians continue to search for a stopper. Rafael Betancourt has been moved to a setup role, while Jose Jimenez will be tried as the closer, even though he's 1-3 with one save and a 7.23 ERA in 15 outings. Opponents are also hitting .299 off him, so don't be surprised to see Betancourt and Jimenez sharing this role when the save opportunities arise.
Jeremy Affeldt has become the new closer in Kansas City and he has excelled thus far, converting all three save chances this week while holding opponents to a .214 average and posting a 2.25 ERA. Affeldt would rather be a starting pitcher, but he has the potential to be a dominant closer.
The Blue Jays haven't officially said it yet, but it sure looks like Jason Frasor is the team's new closer. The rookie right-hander is 2-1 with three saves and a 0.81 ERA in 19 outings as he's limited opponents to a .169 batting average. He's a worthy pickup, if he hasn't already been discovered in your league.
With Billy Wagner still expected out at least two more weeks, Tim Worrell will continue to get the saves in Philadelphia. He's more than held his own so far, earning six saves in his last seven chances with a 3.16 ERA.
This season has been so crazy for closers that Danny Graves leads the way with 23 saves, earning those during the Reds' first 29 wins, an incredible percentage of saves to wins. The Cubs continue to stick with Joe Borowski, who had 22 straight saves before blowing one this week, despite an 8.20 ERA. And Armando Benitez has defied all the odds by earning 19 saves in 20 chances with a miniscule 0.31 ERA.
Yes, closers are unpredictable. But when you can grab the good ones on Draft Day and then actively pick up the new ones during the year, your odds of winning a fantasy league title get all that much better.
Comings and goings
The Toronto Blue Jays called up super prospect Alexis Rios this week when Frank Catalanotto went on the DL. Rios hit just .259-3-23 in 46 games at Triple-A Syracuse, but will start in right field for the next two weeks for Toronto. He's hitting .222-0-1 during his early audition, but does have a .364 on-base percentage. The Blue Jays would like to keep him in the majors, but he's going to have to earn that right.
The Angels signed veteran OF Raul Mondesi on Saturday and hope to have him in the lineup for Sunday's game. With injuries to Troy Glaus, Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad and Tim Salmon, Mondesi has a chance to start right away and add some punch. He was hitting .283-2-14 in 26 games with Pittsburgh when he decided to leave the team. But he has a great opportunity in this lineup and will be a desired pickup in mixed leagues, but especially in AL-only Rotisserie leagues.
Damon Minor will get a chance to start at first base for San Francisco now that J.T. Snow is on the DL with a knee injury. Minor, 30, was hitting .344-9-33 at Triple-A Fresno at the time of his promotion and was hitting .167-0-1 through his first four games with San Francisco. Minor has big-league experience and should more than hold his own until Snow returns.
The Rangers called up Gary Matthews Jr. and Chad Allen this week and found a way to get both in the starting lineup. Allen, who was leading the International League with a .392 average at the time of his callup, has hit .357-0-2 during his first four games. Allen, 29, has five years of big league experience and is a worthy pickup in AL-only Rotisserie leagues. Matthews, another big league veteran, hit .342-9-36 at Triple-A Oklahoma and is also a solid pickup in AL-only leagues, even though he's hitting just .154 this week.
The White Sox called up RHP Jon Rauch this week, but after he was hit hard during Saturday's start and left the clubhouse early, general manager Ken Williams vowed to trade Rauch. He's still a good prospect, but obviously he's not a good pickup now.
The Mariners also recalled Clint Nageotte from Triple-A Tacoma, where he was 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA. He will be used as a long reliever and won't be put in the starting rotation right now, so even though he's a top prospect, his fantasy value for now is very minimal.
Stars on the rise
Kevin Youkilis will take over the full-time third base job in Boston for the next six weeks while Bill Mueller recovers from knee surgery. The Red Sox were hoping to keep their top prospect at Triple-A for most of this season before handing him this job in 2005, but he's going to have to learn in a hurry. So far he's more than held his own as he's hit .278-1-7 in 11 games with a .413 on-base percentage. He had a career .422 on-base percentage in the minors and that plate discipline will definitely lead to solid fantasy numbers for years to come.
Daryle Ward has been the most productive hitter in the majors since his callup from the minors on May 11, hitting .369-6-18 over those 16 games. He could split some time with Randall Simon at first base, but the Bucs will make sure he's playing right field when Simon starts at first. It's unlikely that Ward is still available in your league, but if he is grab his hot bat while you can.
Rob Mackowiak owns another hot bat in that Pirates' lineup as he's hitting .283-11-31 with five stolen bases this year and should be qualifying at third base soon. He qualifies only in the outfield right now after playing 19 games at third base last year, but has played 16 games at the hot corner this year. He's had an unforgettable week as he's hit .364-3-12 and had a game-winning grand slam the night his wife delivered a baby. What a great story and what a great pickup this year.
Pedro Feliz has struggled at the plate since moving to shortstop, but he's still hitting .281-8-27-2 and could be qualified at four different positions depending on your league rules. He already qualifies at third base and has played 16 games at third base and 13 at shortstop. He's playing less this year in the outfield, but earning enough playing time out there this year is also possible. With the flexibility and increased playing time, Feliz continues to become a solid fantasy pickup.
Mark Bellhorn has settled in nicely for the Red Sox at second base and even when Nomar Garciaparra comes off the DL, it's likely that Bellhorn will platoon with Pokey Reese at second. During the month of May, Bellhorn has hit .270-4-24 with a .379 on-base percentage, solid numbers all the way around.
On the mend
Tony Armas Jr. could be called up in time to pitch Tuesday against Atlanta after completing his rehab work in the minors. During his last two outings at Triple-A Edmonton, Armas posted a 1.80 ERA with 10 strikeouts in eight innings. He hasn't pitched in the majors since last May after undergoing shoulder surgery, but appears to have regained his good stuff.
A.J. Burnett also wants to be activated and start this week for Florida, but he may need one more outing at Triple-A Albuquerque. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on seven hits in 3.1 IP. He's trying to come back from elbow surgery and normally pitchers who come back from Tommy John surgery don't excel until their second full season back. Burnett is a worthy pickup, but remember about those first-year comeback troubles before spending too much to acquire him.
Preston Wilson continues to rehab from knee surgery and is beginning to jog and hit off a tee. He hasn't started a minor-league rehab yet, but still hopes to be back in the majors by early June.
Mark Prior allowed one hit and struck out eight in 4.1 innings in a rehab start for Class A Lansing on Tuesday night. Prior threw 62 pitches, including 48 strikes. Prior will make one or two starts for Triple-A Iowa before returning to the Cubs. It's been a long wait, but hopefully Prior will return in good shape.
Nomar Garciaparra also went to Triple-A Pawtucket to begin a rehab stint. There's no timetable on his return to the Red Sox, but he could be back to the majors by mid-June.
Jose Reyes continues to battle a back injury and received a cortisone shot this week to relieve the pain. Reyes seems fully recovered from his hamstring injury, but the back injury has sidelined him during his rehab stint. It will be at least another week and maybe longer before Reyes returns to the Mets.
The news is better on the Twins' Joe Mauer, who went 2-for-4 on Saturday during his rehab stint at Triple-A Rochester. He could be back in the starting lineup by week's end.
Look for Dmitri Young to return to the Tigers early this week. He hit for the cycle in the first of his two-game rehab stint at Triple-A Toledo on Saturday and appears fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered in the second game of the season.
Down on the farm
White Sox OF Joe Borchard was named International League Player of the Week when he hit .452-5-18. The team's top prospect is hitting .288-9-35 at Triple-A Charlotte, but there's no hurry to bring him up to the majors. Still, he's a prospect worth watching for the future.
It's only a matter of time, though, until the Devil Rays promote B.J. Upton to the majors. The hot-shot shortstop is hitting .339-5-11-4 in 16 games since his promotion to Triple-A Durham and is almost ready for a callup to the majors, where he will be an impact player for years to come.
Edwin Jackson has struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a 5.13 ERA in 10 starts, but he's expected to get a promotion and start on Wednesday. It's an emergency start, though, so don't expect too many starts in the majors unless he throws lights out.
I know I mentioned him before, but keep a close eye on Mets' 3B prospect David Wright, who is hitting .341-8-27 with 17 stolen bases at Double-A Binghamton. He's a serious prospect who will be the Mets' third baseman by late 2005.
By GREG AMBROSIUS
When it comes to closers, nothing is guaranteed. So it should come as no surprise to fantasy owners this year that securing saves is as unpredictable as ever. You take the good with the bad and look for new closers whenever they are named, right?
We've seen three new closers this week alone and even those three aren't guarantees. But beggers can't be choosy, so you have to jump when you have the chance to acquire cheap saves. This week is a perfect example of that.
In case you didn't see it, Arizona promoted 11-year MLB veteran Scott Service from Triple-A Tucson and have tentatively named him the team's new closer. Service, who has 16 career saves, was 5-0 with a 3.68 ERA and eight saves at Tucson. He replaces Jose Valverde, who was 0-2 with three saves in five chances, a 4.81 ERA and six home runs in 24.1 IP. Opponents hit .417 off him during his last four outings as his ERA swelled to 12.00. Service, 37, pitched two scoreless innings during his first outing and has a chance to be a good in-season pickup for astute fantasy-leaguers.
The bullpen has been so bad in Cleveland this year that the Indians continue to search for a stopper. Rafael Betancourt has been moved to a setup role, while Jose Jimenez will be tried as the closer, even though he's 1-3 with one save and a 7.23 ERA in 15 outings. Opponents are also hitting .299 off him, so don't be surprised to see Betancourt and Jimenez sharing this role when the save opportunities arise.
Jeremy Affeldt has become the new closer in Kansas City and he has excelled thus far, converting all three save chances this week while holding opponents to a .214 average and posting a 2.25 ERA. Affeldt would rather be a starting pitcher, but he has the potential to be a dominant closer.
The Blue Jays haven't officially said it yet, but it sure looks like Jason Frasor is the team's new closer. The rookie right-hander is 2-1 with three saves and a 0.81 ERA in 19 outings as he's limited opponents to a .169 batting average. He's a worthy pickup, if he hasn't already been discovered in your league.
With Billy Wagner still expected out at least two more weeks, Tim Worrell will continue to get the saves in Philadelphia. He's more than held his own so far, earning six saves in his last seven chances with a 3.16 ERA.
This season has been so crazy for closers that Danny Graves leads the way with 23 saves, earning those during the Reds' first 29 wins, an incredible percentage of saves to wins. The Cubs continue to stick with Joe Borowski, who had 22 straight saves before blowing one this week, despite an 8.20 ERA. And Armando Benitez has defied all the odds by earning 19 saves in 20 chances with a miniscule 0.31 ERA.
Yes, closers are unpredictable. But when you can grab the good ones on Draft Day and then actively pick up the new ones during the year, your odds of winning a fantasy league title get all that much better.
Comings and goings
The Toronto Blue Jays called up super prospect Alexis Rios this week when Frank Catalanotto went on the DL. Rios hit just .259-3-23 in 46 games at Triple-A Syracuse, but will start in right field for the next two weeks for Toronto. He's hitting .222-0-1 during his early audition, but does have a .364 on-base percentage. The Blue Jays would like to keep him in the majors, but he's going to have to earn that right.
The Angels signed veteran OF Raul Mondesi on Saturday and hope to have him in the lineup for Sunday's game. With injuries to Troy Glaus, Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad and Tim Salmon, Mondesi has a chance to start right away and add some punch. He was hitting .283-2-14 in 26 games with Pittsburgh when he decided to leave the team. But he has a great opportunity in this lineup and will be a desired pickup in mixed leagues, but especially in AL-only Rotisserie leagues.
Damon Minor will get a chance to start at first base for San Francisco now that J.T. Snow is on the DL with a knee injury. Minor, 30, was hitting .344-9-33 at Triple-A Fresno at the time of his promotion and was hitting .167-0-1 through his first four games with San Francisco. Minor has big-league experience and should more than hold his own until Snow returns.
The Rangers called up Gary Matthews Jr. and Chad Allen this week and found a way to get both in the starting lineup. Allen, who was leading the International League with a .392 average at the time of his callup, has hit .357-0-2 during his first four games. Allen, 29, has five years of big league experience and is a worthy pickup in AL-only Rotisserie leagues. Matthews, another big league veteran, hit .342-9-36 at Triple-A Oklahoma and is also a solid pickup in AL-only leagues, even though he's hitting just .154 this week.
The White Sox called up RHP Jon Rauch this week, but after he was hit hard during Saturday's start and left the clubhouse early, general manager Ken Williams vowed to trade Rauch. He's still a good prospect, but obviously he's not a good pickup now.
The Mariners also recalled Clint Nageotte from Triple-A Tacoma, where he was 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA. He will be used as a long reliever and won't be put in the starting rotation right now, so even though he's a top prospect, his fantasy value for now is very minimal.
Stars on the rise
Kevin Youkilis will take over the full-time third base job in Boston for the next six weeks while Bill Mueller recovers from knee surgery. The Red Sox were hoping to keep their top prospect at Triple-A for most of this season before handing him this job in 2005, but he's going to have to learn in a hurry. So far he's more than held his own as he's hit .278-1-7 in 11 games with a .413 on-base percentage. He had a career .422 on-base percentage in the minors and that plate discipline will definitely lead to solid fantasy numbers for years to come.
Daryle Ward has been the most productive hitter in the majors since his callup from the minors on May 11, hitting .369-6-18 over those 16 games. He could split some time with Randall Simon at first base, but the Bucs will make sure he's playing right field when Simon starts at first. It's unlikely that Ward is still available in your league, but if he is grab his hot bat while you can.
Rob Mackowiak owns another hot bat in that Pirates' lineup as he's hitting .283-11-31 with five stolen bases this year and should be qualifying at third base soon. He qualifies only in the outfield right now after playing 19 games at third base last year, but has played 16 games at the hot corner this year. He's had an unforgettable week as he's hit .364-3-12 and had a game-winning grand slam the night his wife delivered a baby. What a great story and what a great pickup this year.
Pedro Feliz has struggled at the plate since moving to shortstop, but he's still hitting .281-8-27-2 and could be qualified at four different positions depending on your league rules. He already qualifies at third base and has played 16 games at third base and 13 at shortstop. He's playing less this year in the outfield, but earning enough playing time out there this year is also possible. With the flexibility and increased playing time, Feliz continues to become a solid fantasy pickup.
Mark Bellhorn has settled in nicely for the Red Sox at second base and even when Nomar Garciaparra comes off the DL, it's likely that Bellhorn will platoon with Pokey Reese at second. During the month of May, Bellhorn has hit .270-4-24 with a .379 on-base percentage, solid numbers all the way around.
On the mend
Tony Armas Jr. could be called up in time to pitch Tuesday against Atlanta after completing his rehab work in the minors. During his last two outings at Triple-A Edmonton, Armas posted a 1.80 ERA with 10 strikeouts in eight innings. He hasn't pitched in the majors since last May after undergoing shoulder surgery, but appears to have regained his good stuff.
A.J. Burnett also wants to be activated and start this week for Florida, but he may need one more outing at Triple-A Albuquerque. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on seven hits in 3.1 IP. He's trying to come back from elbow surgery and normally pitchers who come back from Tommy John surgery don't excel until their second full season back. Burnett is a worthy pickup, but remember about those first-year comeback troubles before spending too much to acquire him.
Preston Wilson continues to rehab from knee surgery and is beginning to jog and hit off a tee. He hasn't started a minor-league rehab yet, but still hopes to be back in the majors by early June.
Mark Prior allowed one hit and struck out eight in 4.1 innings in a rehab start for Class A Lansing on Tuesday night. Prior threw 62 pitches, including 48 strikes. Prior will make one or two starts for Triple-A Iowa before returning to the Cubs. It's been a long wait, but hopefully Prior will return in good shape.
Nomar Garciaparra also went to Triple-A Pawtucket to begin a rehab stint. There's no timetable on his return to the Red Sox, but he could be back to the majors by mid-June.
Jose Reyes continues to battle a back injury and received a cortisone shot this week to relieve the pain. Reyes seems fully recovered from his hamstring injury, but the back injury has sidelined him during his rehab stint. It will be at least another week and maybe longer before Reyes returns to the Mets.
The news is better on the Twins' Joe Mauer, who went 2-for-4 on Saturday during his rehab stint at Triple-A Rochester. He could be back in the starting lineup by week's end.
Look for Dmitri Young to return to the Tigers early this week. He hit for the cycle in the first of his two-game rehab stint at Triple-A Toledo on Saturday and appears fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered in the second game of the season.
Down on the farm
White Sox OF Joe Borchard was named International League Player of the Week when he hit .452-5-18. The team's top prospect is hitting .288-9-35 at Triple-A Charlotte, but there's no hurry to bring him up to the majors. Still, he's a prospect worth watching for the future.
It's only a matter of time, though, until the Devil Rays promote B.J. Upton to the majors. The hot-shot shortstop is hitting .339-5-11-4 in 16 games since his promotion to Triple-A Durham and is almost ready for a callup to the majors, where he will be an impact player for years to come.
Edwin Jackson has struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a 5.13 ERA in 10 starts, but he's expected to get a promotion and start on Wednesday. It's an emergency start, though, so don't expect too many starts in the majors unless he throws lights out.
I know I mentioned him before, but keep a close eye on Mets' 3B prospect David Wright, who is hitting .341-8-27 with 17 stolen bases at Double-A Binghamton. He's a serious prospect who will be the Mets' third baseman by late 2005.