Panzram
06-08-2004, 02:41 PM
Hit Parade: Making the best with the worst SPs
By Brendan Roberts - SportingNews
In today's diluted expansion baseball world, there are at least 150 pitchers in some team's rotation, and every one of them -- yes, I'm saying all -- can spin a gem on any given day. They wouldn't have made it to the majors without that capability. Witness Tommy Phelps' seven innings of one-hit ball in his first start of the season and Daniel Cabrera's six innings of shutout ball in his first career start.
The key is to find the players that pitch the most "gems," but it's not a requisite. While it's important to have a good three or four starting pitchers you know will log more quality starts than stinkers, finding short-term starters or rotating the last few spots is an effective strategy.
So which pitchers, and when? Ah, now there's the tricky part. First of all, if you have plenty of bench space, make sure starting pitchers, or at least pitchers in general, fill a majority of it. Leave yourself the option to rotate fringe starting pitchers. Remember, in Roto and points leagues alike, a bad start will hurt much more than a good start helps.
Secondly, when it comes time to decide which ones to start in a given day/week, do your homework by looking at upcoming matchups and ballparks. Recent pitching trends are important in that a struggling pitcher is not a good start because of a possible lack of confidence. But strong pitching performances are so inconsistent from start to start, even amongst veterans, that a hot two starts seldom indicate a pitcher is in for a third.
Matchups and ballparks are king, and an owner can capitalize on starts against weak offensive clubs (Montreal, Tampa Bay) in favorable pitching parks (Petco, SBC, Safeco) and avoid good hitting teams (Red Sox, Yankees) at unfavorable parks (Coors, Ameriquest). For instance, even Tyler Yates and Ismael Valdez have produced gems at home against the Expos, who have averaged fewer than three runs per game this season. It's not flawless, but this strategy is a great way to maximize mediocre talent.
FORTUNES RISING
Carlos Guillen, SS/3B, Tigers. Guillen leads all major-league shortstops in OBP and SLG. Better than Michael Young, better than Miguel Tejada ... even better than former shortstop Alex Rodriguez. Our congrats to those owners who have gained by it and the Tigers for stealing him from Seattle for a couple bags of peanuts (AKA Ramon Santiago and a minor leaguer). However, his owners must know he probably won't keep this up. For one, he has been injury-prone much of his career. He played just 109 games last year for Seattle because of a variety of leg problems. And secondly, his three-year splits suggest he's a hot starter, batting .290 in April/May and .248 the rest of the way.
Nick Johnson, 1B, Expos. Just like Little Nicky on the silver screen, this Little Nicky brought plenty of hatred and remorse to his owners but has ended up doing the right thing in the end. He's batting .406 in nine games since returning from a back injury, and he ain't done "terrorizing" big-league pitchers yet. Let's not forget that scouts say N-Joe has one of the best pure swings and batting eyes in the game. Injuries have been a problem, and they'll continue to be. But when he's healthy, he'll quietly perform like an upper-tier fantasy option. Grab him (off the FA wire in shallow mixed leagues or through a sneaky trade in others) while you still can.
Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees. We figured "Godzilla" would improve this season, but not this much. His numbers are up across the board, especially the percentage categories. Don't expect it to end here. We realize it's a little different baseball over in Japan, but his power numbers there were astronomical. He hit 50 homers in 140 games the year before he joined the Yanks. He has the lineup support and hitting skills to move into the elite among outfielders this season.
FORTUNES FALLING
Orlando Cabrera, SS, Expos. We've had our share of e-mails wondering what in the world happened to O-Cab. In fact, many of you dropped him. That was a mistake. Cabrera still has rare offensive potential at a weak fantasy position, and he normally starts slowly. Granted, not this slow, but he's in a walk year, in his prime and simply too good for this to continue much longer.
Mark DeRosa, 3B, Braves. It's about time for the Braves to abort the mission of playing DeRosa every day. It just hasn't worked out: He's batting .218 after a .178 May. As I look back through past game logs, minor-league seasons and even short scouting reports, I see little reason the Braves felt he would be an effective corner infielder anyway. The guy has had a few good months, but that's it. Don't expect him to bounce back. You daily-transaction owners who like his versatility off the bench should pull the plug on your mission as well.
Richard Hidalgo, OF, Astros. After batting .341 in April, Hidalgo hit .202 in May. Ouch. He has been demoted to a platoon. So what do we think the future holds? Well, something must be wrong because he's a first-half player. In fact, over the last three seasons, he has 40 homers before the All-Star break and 22 after it. His defense is solid, so he'll play regularly. But this platoon with Jason Lane might not be over.
LINEUP WATCH
The A's lineup. Eric who? The A's have gone on a little resurgence since Eric Chavez broke his hand last Tuesday (yes, just hours after I had predicted a strong second half from him). The team has won five of six, and the offense is still clicking. Manager Ken Macha is making all the right moves, and the guys are feeding one another. Don't be concerned with a major drop in production with Chavez gone. Sure, they lose his production, but it doesn't appear the other fellas will slip.
5x5 WATCH: SBs
Wheels in Kansas City? Manager Tony Pena told the press last week he is going to be more aggressive to get his team going offensively, and that included on the basepaths. The problem here is when you start such tomato-cart-pullers as Matt Stairs, Juan Gonzalez, Mike Sweeney, Joe Randa and Ken Harvey, there's not much you can do. But expect a slight uptick for players such as Carlos Beltran, Desi Relaford, Angel Berroa and maybe even Tony Graffanino.
POSITION WATCH
Chipper Jones, 1B/3B, Braves. So Chipper is moving back to the infield, huh? Good to hear. He never was much of a left fielder, and he had some fine years and didn't seem to wear down as a third baseman. We're not sure yet what to make of this. We'd like to think he'll turn into an Albert Pujols-like corner infield/outfield player, but don't jack him up value-wise until you're sure this isn't just a temporary maneuver.
TIP OF THE WEEK
Take advantage of those DL spots, if your league has them. That doesn't just mean filling it with injured players from your active roster, but pluck injured players off the FA wire if you have spots open. Once the player returns, you can always drop him. But you never know how much you might need players such as Juan Gonzalez (available in some mixed leagues) down the road.
By Brendan Roberts - SportingNews
In today's diluted expansion baseball world, there are at least 150 pitchers in some team's rotation, and every one of them -- yes, I'm saying all -- can spin a gem on any given day. They wouldn't have made it to the majors without that capability. Witness Tommy Phelps' seven innings of one-hit ball in his first start of the season and Daniel Cabrera's six innings of shutout ball in his first career start.
The key is to find the players that pitch the most "gems," but it's not a requisite. While it's important to have a good three or four starting pitchers you know will log more quality starts than stinkers, finding short-term starters or rotating the last few spots is an effective strategy.
So which pitchers, and when? Ah, now there's the tricky part. First of all, if you have plenty of bench space, make sure starting pitchers, or at least pitchers in general, fill a majority of it. Leave yourself the option to rotate fringe starting pitchers. Remember, in Roto and points leagues alike, a bad start will hurt much more than a good start helps.
Secondly, when it comes time to decide which ones to start in a given day/week, do your homework by looking at upcoming matchups and ballparks. Recent pitching trends are important in that a struggling pitcher is not a good start because of a possible lack of confidence. But strong pitching performances are so inconsistent from start to start, even amongst veterans, that a hot two starts seldom indicate a pitcher is in for a third.
Matchups and ballparks are king, and an owner can capitalize on starts against weak offensive clubs (Montreal, Tampa Bay) in favorable pitching parks (Petco, SBC, Safeco) and avoid good hitting teams (Red Sox, Yankees) at unfavorable parks (Coors, Ameriquest). For instance, even Tyler Yates and Ismael Valdez have produced gems at home against the Expos, who have averaged fewer than three runs per game this season. It's not flawless, but this strategy is a great way to maximize mediocre talent.
FORTUNES RISING
Carlos Guillen, SS/3B, Tigers. Guillen leads all major-league shortstops in OBP and SLG. Better than Michael Young, better than Miguel Tejada ... even better than former shortstop Alex Rodriguez. Our congrats to those owners who have gained by it and the Tigers for stealing him from Seattle for a couple bags of peanuts (AKA Ramon Santiago and a minor leaguer). However, his owners must know he probably won't keep this up. For one, he has been injury-prone much of his career. He played just 109 games last year for Seattle because of a variety of leg problems. And secondly, his three-year splits suggest he's a hot starter, batting .290 in April/May and .248 the rest of the way.
Nick Johnson, 1B, Expos. Just like Little Nicky on the silver screen, this Little Nicky brought plenty of hatred and remorse to his owners but has ended up doing the right thing in the end. He's batting .406 in nine games since returning from a back injury, and he ain't done "terrorizing" big-league pitchers yet. Let's not forget that scouts say N-Joe has one of the best pure swings and batting eyes in the game. Injuries have been a problem, and they'll continue to be. But when he's healthy, he'll quietly perform like an upper-tier fantasy option. Grab him (off the FA wire in shallow mixed leagues or through a sneaky trade in others) while you still can.
Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees. We figured "Godzilla" would improve this season, but not this much. His numbers are up across the board, especially the percentage categories. Don't expect it to end here. We realize it's a little different baseball over in Japan, but his power numbers there were astronomical. He hit 50 homers in 140 games the year before he joined the Yanks. He has the lineup support and hitting skills to move into the elite among outfielders this season.
FORTUNES FALLING
Orlando Cabrera, SS, Expos. We've had our share of e-mails wondering what in the world happened to O-Cab. In fact, many of you dropped him. That was a mistake. Cabrera still has rare offensive potential at a weak fantasy position, and he normally starts slowly. Granted, not this slow, but he's in a walk year, in his prime and simply too good for this to continue much longer.
Mark DeRosa, 3B, Braves. It's about time for the Braves to abort the mission of playing DeRosa every day. It just hasn't worked out: He's batting .218 after a .178 May. As I look back through past game logs, minor-league seasons and even short scouting reports, I see little reason the Braves felt he would be an effective corner infielder anyway. The guy has had a few good months, but that's it. Don't expect him to bounce back. You daily-transaction owners who like his versatility off the bench should pull the plug on your mission as well.
Richard Hidalgo, OF, Astros. After batting .341 in April, Hidalgo hit .202 in May. Ouch. He has been demoted to a platoon. So what do we think the future holds? Well, something must be wrong because he's a first-half player. In fact, over the last three seasons, he has 40 homers before the All-Star break and 22 after it. His defense is solid, so he'll play regularly. But this platoon with Jason Lane might not be over.
LINEUP WATCH
The A's lineup. Eric who? The A's have gone on a little resurgence since Eric Chavez broke his hand last Tuesday (yes, just hours after I had predicted a strong second half from him). The team has won five of six, and the offense is still clicking. Manager Ken Macha is making all the right moves, and the guys are feeding one another. Don't be concerned with a major drop in production with Chavez gone. Sure, they lose his production, but it doesn't appear the other fellas will slip.
5x5 WATCH: SBs
Wheels in Kansas City? Manager Tony Pena told the press last week he is going to be more aggressive to get his team going offensively, and that included on the basepaths. The problem here is when you start such tomato-cart-pullers as Matt Stairs, Juan Gonzalez, Mike Sweeney, Joe Randa and Ken Harvey, there's not much you can do. But expect a slight uptick for players such as Carlos Beltran, Desi Relaford, Angel Berroa and maybe even Tony Graffanino.
POSITION WATCH
Chipper Jones, 1B/3B, Braves. So Chipper is moving back to the infield, huh? Good to hear. He never was much of a left fielder, and he had some fine years and didn't seem to wear down as a third baseman. We're not sure yet what to make of this. We'd like to think he'll turn into an Albert Pujols-like corner infield/outfield player, but don't jack him up value-wise until you're sure this isn't just a temporary maneuver.
TIP OF THE WEEK
Take advantage of those DL spots, if your league has them. That doesn't just mean filling it with injured players from your active roster, but pluck injured players off the FA wire if you have spots open. Once the player returns, you can always drop him. But you never know how much you might need players such as Juan Gonzalez (available in some mixed leagues) down the road.