>TC<
06-11-2004, 02:37 PM
A good friend of mine, Bob Lung, is a senior writer for the Creative Sports fantasy sports website. Bob also is a major contributor to the Fantasy Football Guide. (due out in July) He is a heck of a fantasy football guy and has come up with some great theories on how to run your team. These articles are being re-printed with his permission and the permission of www.creativesports.com
Bob Lung looks at the most consistent performers in the 2003 season. Bob can be reached at bob@creativesports.com
THE QUALITY GAME THEORY
Consistency, consistency, consistency! Those three words, and a little luck, wins Fantasy Football championships. And since luck can't be controlled, that leaves us with consistency. I have been playing Fantasy Football for 18 years now. And though I have won a few championships, there is nothing more frustrating, in all of Fantasy sports, than destroying an opponent one week by 50 points and then the next week scoring ONLY 50 points. You're the highest scoring team in the league...BUT, you're 1-1! I have seen team after team be the highest scoring team in our league, and not win a championship and sometimes not even make the playoffs. And sometimes, those teams are mine!
So, during the 2002 season, I started to research the concept of quality games in fantasy football. I knew that just taking the average points (total points/number of games) for each player wasn't really valid, because if two players each rushed for 1,280 yards, they both averaged 80 yards per game. There appears to be no difference between the two players for valuation purposes. BUT, if Player A rushes for exactly 80 yards every week and Player B rushes for 120 yards one week and 40 yards the next week, Player A will probably win you more Fantasy games in the long run. Therefore, I knew that I had to use a game-by-game basis for my valuations.
Next step was to set the Quality Game (QG) Factor. This was the average points that a player needed to meet or exceed to be awarded a Quality Game for that week. Each QG Factor was calculated for each specific position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). I calculated the weekly points scored for each individual week by each player. I used the Yahoo scoring system (one point for each 25 yards passing; one point for each 10 yards rushing/receiving; one point per reception and six points for all touchdowns) for my initial calculations. Then, I eliminated any players who had stats in five or less games. This provided a truer average, since the calculation would include the majority of starters in each position. By comparing the player's weekly score against the calculated QG Factor; I could determine how consistent that player was for the year.
With a 16 game schedule (and assuming the player never missed games due to injury), a good fantasy pick would be a player who has at least nine or more consistent games. And yes, the excellent players, with the best overall stats/points for each position, were right up there, in regards to the number of Quality Games (QG's). BUT, the highest total point scorers were not necessarily the player with the highest number of Quality Games (QG's).
QG INDEX – IMPROVING THE QG MEASUREMENT TOOL
The Quality Game Theory is important to identifying the more consistent fantasy players at each position, but I was looking for a way to separate or break them down even further. I found it as I was calculating this year’s QG numbers. I call it the QGI (Quality Game Index). The concept enhances the QG by utilizing each player’s weekly rank in regards to fantasy points. For example, if Priest Holmes is the #1 ranked running back (in terms of fantasy points) then he gets a QGI of one for that week. At the end of the year, I add up their weekly rankings and divide by the numbers of weeks they played to arrive at their 2003 QGI. Therefore, the lower QGI score represents their high weekly rankings. To give you a better idea of how this will separate the more consistent players, I give you this example. Normally, two players will have the same number of QG’s, but one will have many more total points and this is one good example of who is the better fantasy player overall. But what if they’re close in total points as well? In 2003, both Aaron Brooks and tied with nine QG’s and their totals points over the 16 games they played were within four points of each other. Who had the better year? Brooks! Brooks’ QGI was 12.44 and Johnson’s was 14.25. That placed Brooks in second place for all quarterbacks who played all 16 games, while Johnson placed sixth. Therefore, here the QGI identifies that Brooks was a more valuable fantasy quarterback for your team in 2003.
The link to the article, with a better chart, is www.creativesports.com/newsmanager/templates/premium.asp?articleid=1261&zoneid=25
This is only part one, so more fun to come
TC
Bob Lung looks at the most consistent performers in the 2003 season. Bob can be reached at bob@creativesports.com
THE QUALITY GAME THEORY
Consistency, consistency, consistency! Those three words, and a little luck, wins Fantasy Football championships. And since luck can't be controlled, that leaves us with consistency. I have been playing Fantasy Football for 18 years now. And though I have won a few championships, there is nothing more frustrating, in all of Fantasy sports, than destroying an opponent one week by 50 points and then the next week scoring ONLY 50 points. You're the highest scoring team in the league...BUT, you're 1-1! I have seen team after team be the highest scoring team in our league, and not win a championship and sometimes not even make the playoffs. And sometimes, those teams are mine!
So, during the 2002 season, I started to research the concept of quality games in fantasy football. I knew that just taking the average points (total points/number of games) for each player wasn't really valid, because if two players each rushed for 1,280 yards, they both averaged 80 yards per game. There appears to be no difference between the two players for valuation purposes. BUT, if Player A rushes for exactly 80 yards every week and Player B rushes for 120 yards one week and 40 yards the next week, Player A will probably win you more Fantasy games in the long run. Therefore, I knew that I had to use a game-by-game basis for my valuations.
Next step was to set the Quality Game (QG) Factor. This was the average points that a player needed to meet or exceed to be awarded a Quality Game for that week. Each QG Factor was calculated for each specific position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). I calculated the weekly points scored for each individual week by each player. I used the Yahoo scoring system (one point for each 25 yards passing; one point for each 10 yards rushing/receiving; one point per reception and six points for all touchdowns) for my initial calculations. Then, I eliminated any players who had stats in five or less games. This provided a truer average, since the calculation would include the majority of starters in each position. By comparing the player's weekly score against the calculated QG Factor; I could determine how consistent that player was for the year.
With a 16 game schedule (and assuming the player never missed games due to injury), a good fantasy pick would be a player who has at least nine or more consistent games. And yes, the excellent players, with the best overall stats/points for each position, were right up there, in regards to the number of Quality Games (QG's). BUT, the highest total point scorers were not necessarily the player with the highest number of Quality Games (QG's).
QG INDEX – IMPROVING THE QG MEASUREMENT TOOL
The Quality Game Theory is important to identifying the more consistent fantasy players at each position, but I was looking for a way to separate or break them down even further. I found it as I was calculating this year’s QG numbers. I call it the QGI (Quality Game Index). The concept enhances the QG by utilizing each player’s weekly rank in regards to fantasy points. For example, if Priest Holmes is the #1 ranked running back (in terms of fantasy points) then he gets a QGI of one for that week. At the end of the year, I add up their weekly rankings and divide by the numbers of weeks they played to arrive at their 2003 QGI. Therefore, the lower QGI score represents their high weekly rankings. To give you a better idea of how this will separate the more consistent players, I give you this example. Normally, two players will have the same number of QG’s, but one will have many more total points and this is one good example of who is the better fantasy player overall. But what if they’re close in total points as well? In 2003, both Aaron Brooks and tied with nine QG’s and their totals points over the 16 games they played were within four points of each other. Who had the better year? Brooks! Brooks’ QGI was 12.44 and Johnson’s was 14.25. That placed Brooks in second place for all quarterbacks who played all 16 games, while Johnson placed sixth. Therefore, here the QGI identifies that Brooks was a more valuable fantasy quarterback for your team in 2003.
The link to the article, with a better chart, is www.creativesports.com/newsmanager/templates/premium.asp?articleid=1261&zoneid=25
This is only part one, so more fun to come
TC