The Quality Games Theory - Part 2

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A good friend of mine, Bob Lung, is a senior writer for the Creative Sports fantasy sports website. Bob also is a major contributor to the Fantasy Football Guide. (due out in July) He is a heck of a fantasy football guy and has come up with some great theories on how to run your team. These articles are being re-printed with his permission and the permission of www.creativesports.com

Bob Lung looks at the most consistent performers in the 2003 season. Bob can be reached at bob@creativesports.com

Today, we look at the running backs and who were most consistent in 2003. We all know that if you didn’t grab a top back or two in the first couple of rounds of your preseason draft, you were probably fighting a losing battle most of the season. However, as always there were a few sleepers that may have helped your team towards a championship, like Domanick Davis or Rudi Johnson to name a couple. With many more running backs, which played in more than five games, the top backs will always be between 12-16 QG’s. Anything less than 12 QG’s, the ack was either injured or under-performed.

QG INDEX – IMPROVING THE QG MEASUREMENT TOOL
The Quality Game Theory is important to identifying the more consistent fantasy players at each position, but I was looking for a way to separate or break them down even further. I found it as I was calculating this year’s QG numbers. I call it the QGI (Quality Game Index). The concept enhances the QG by utilizing each player’s weekly rank in regards to fantasy points. For example, if Priest Holmes is the #1 ranked running back (in terms of fantasy points) then he gets a QGI of 1 for that week. At the end of the year, I add up their weekly rankings and divide by the numbers of weeks they played to arrive at their 2003 QGI. Therefore, the lower QGI score represents their high weekly rankings. The QGI (Quality Game Index) is more prominent in separating the running backs within a certain numbers.


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2003 REVIEW – RUNNING BACKS
The “risky” draft choices for 2003 were Priest Holmes and Ahman Green. Holmes was coming off a great season in 2002, but was cut short by a hip injury. Ahman Green’s status looked shaky during preseason as his coaches were talking about him sharing carries with Najeh Davenport. Holmes was reluctantly taken by many owners around the 5th or 6th picks in the draft, instead of the 1st pick, while Green usually went late 1st round or early 2nd round. However, at the end of 2003, they were both perfect! Both went 16 for 16 in Quality Games! Priest wins the QG MVP at running back for ranking first place in total points and QGI, as well, but Green was certainly not far behind.

The running backs normally don’t vary much between consistency and total points, as you can see below, the top 11 running backs in total points are the top 11 in Quality Games. Actually, only Clinton Portis looks somewhat out of order, being that he was the sixth highest total points, but he only had 12 QG’s. However, please note that Portis missed three games, so both his QG% and QGI are extremely high.

There are the surprises in the other direction, low points, but high consistency. Sometimes, these are good players, who were injured and didn’t play every game, but still did very well when they did play. Examples of this would be Stephen Davis and Edgerrin James. However, of those who played 16 games, Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin were surprisingly up there in the QG’s rankings. Barber was eleventh overall in total points, which was almost 200 points less than Holmes, but he had 13 QG’s, which were only three less games. Curtis Martin, who started the year off extremely slow, was eighteenth overall in total points, but still managed 12 QG’s.



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2003 vs 2002 – Running Back Comparison
So, who’s the most consistent running back over the last two years combined? I think everyone would agree, if Holmes doesn’t miss the last two games last year, he would have had back-to-back perfect QG seasons, but he still has 30 QG’s over the past two seasons to be the most consistent running back. Ricky Williams is tied with him at 30 CG’s, as well. Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander are a close second with 29 QG’s, while the remainder of stud running backs with 26 QG’s or more over the last two seasons are as follows: Deuce McAllister (28 QG’s); Tiki Barber (28 QG’s); Ahman Green (27 QG’s); Jamal Lewis (27 QG’s); Fred Taylor (26 QG’s) and Clinton Portis (26 QG’s). I personally think two names stand out of the crowd here: Fred Taylor and Tiki Barber. Fred Taylor, mainly because he is normally tagged as “injury-prone” and usually falls late in the first round or early in the second. Please, remove this tag! I was quite surprised to see Tiki still have 13 QG’s this season. The Giants season appeared to be a complete train wreck! Yet, Tiki still kept his weekly stats intact, to be the consistent performer he was last year. A new coach and improved offensive line will certainly be a great reason to grab him in next year’s draft when others have written him off.


Feel free to post any comments or questions. You can also e-mail bob@creativesports.com


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This RB analysis of Quality Games lends support to the idea that grabbing two top tier running backs can really make or break your season. This is the only position where I endorse jumping into a "run". If the RB's start going, get in on the action before they are gone.

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