barzilla
06-28-2004, 01:06 AM
I wanted to forward everyone the article I'm writing for MLBcenter.com. Princess, I have numbers on Terry Francona if you want it.
How do we rate managers?
By Scott Barzilla
In the past few decades statistics in baseball have come a long way. In particular, rating hitters and pitchers is a lot easier now than it was thirty years ago. In fact, in the last decade defensive metrics have also come a long way. Even though we still have a ways to go we have a pretty good idea. However, managers are a lot more difficult to rate. How much credit or blame do we give managers for their team’s performance?
The problem with baseball is that most of the action is one on one, so strategy and coaching is not nearly as important as it is in the other sports. Players develop their craft in the minors for three to five years before they even come to the big leagues. Usually, a change in managers, pitching coaches, or hitting instructors does not change how a hitter hits or a pitcher pitches. So, what does a manager control? Managers are usually judged on how the shape the lineup, when they use subs, and how they handle the pitching staff.
Contrary to popular belief, most of the credit or blame for how a team performs lies with the general manager. The talent or lack of talent on the team determines how good they will do. This is another major difference between baseball and the other sports. There is not one manager in baseball that is also mostly responsible for player personnel. In football and basketball there are a good number of coaches that are also responsible for player personnel. It used to be that way in baseball with the likes of John McGraw and Connie Mack. Managers these days don’t have that kind of clout.
So, if most of the credit goes to the general manager then how much goes to the manager? When sabermetrics was gaining a foothold, the Pythagorean method was developed. Most teams should match their expected record based on the number of runs they give up and the number of runs they score. No one has come up with a good reason why some teams overachieve and others don’t. When there is no reason we usually assume it is attributable to randomness, but we do notice that good teams tend to overachieve and bad teams tend to underachieve.
Yet, the question with the Pythagorean method is whether is can be used to evaluate managers. Of course, if we have learned anything in sabermetrics it is that no single statistic can explain everything. So, like when we evaluate hitters, pitchers, and fielders, when we evaluate managers we have to use a variety of measures. In our analysis today we will see their record, winning percentage, average finish in standings, post-season appearances/successes, and their Pythagorean record. It isn’t perfect, but it may be a start. We will include the twelve managers at the big league level that have managed at least five complete seasons.
1. Bobby Cox
Record: 1906-1465 (.565)
Standing: 2.3
Postseason: 12 division championships, 5 pennants, 1 World Series title
Pythagorean: +40
Per Season: +1.90
2. Joe Torre
Record: 1680-1509 (.527)
Standing: 2.5
Postseason: 8 division championships, 6 pennants, 4 World Series titles
Pythagorean: +23
Per Season: +1.21
3. Dusty Baker
Record: 928-789 (.540)
Standing: 2.1
Postseason: 3 Division Championships, 1 pennant
Pythagorean: +18
Per Season: +1.64
4. Felipe Alou
Record: 791-778 (.504)
Standing: 3.0
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: +15
Per Season: +1.67
5. Frank Robinson
Record: 846-909 (.482)
Standing: 4.0
Postseason: N/A
Pythagorean: +13
Per Season: +1.30
6. Tony La Russa
Record: 2009-1789 (.529)
Standing: 2.8
Postseason: 9 Division Championships, 3 Pennants, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: +11
Per Season: +0.48
7. Art Howe
Record: 1058-1046 (.503)
Standing: 3.3
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: +10
Per Season: +0.77
8. Jack McKeon
Record: 845-782 (.516)
Standing: 2.7
Postseason: 1 Pennant, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: +7
Per Season: +1.00
9. Bruce Bochy
Record: 694-746 (.482)
Standing: 3.6
Postseason: 2 Division Championships, 1 Pennant
Pythagorean: +6
Per Season: +0.67
10. Buck Showalter
Record: 634-595 (.516)
Standing: 2.8
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: -1
Per Season: -0.11
11. Lou Pinella
Record: 1382-1234 (.528)
Standing: 2.6
Postseason: 4 Division Championships, 1 Pennant, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: -2
Per Season: -0.13
12. Jimy Williams
Record: 866-746 (.537)
Standing: 2.6
Postseason: N/A
Pythagorean: -22
Per Season: -2.44
As everyone can probably tell, I am an Astros fan, so I found the results very interesting when I got to the bottom of the list. When you see his Pythagorean rating with the rest of them you have to wonder what the Astros were thinking when they hired him. Well, that is pretty obvious. Williams has the third best winning percentage among the twelve and his standing rating was tied for fourth among the twelve. Obviously, that’s pretty good right?
Well, when you see that he has never won a division championship your interest has to be piqued some. In some seasons, those two and a half games would have been enough to win the division. A quick look at the teams he has managed shows why his winning percentage is so high. A trained seal probably could have done about as well.
When we look at the top of the list we see that Bobby Cox has about as large a lead as Jimy Williams has a grip on last place. His team has won the divisional crown the last ten years in a row. Joe Torre and Dusty Baker finished second and third even though Tony La Russa has had more post-season appearances than both of them. The key in their case has been an incredible consistency over the past decade.
So, how do we use this information? Organizations could start looking at Pythagorean records when deciding on managers. This might prevent teams from being blinded by overall records and hire managers that will get the most of the talent that they have. Furthermore, when we study further we find that most of the great managers have strategy ideas in common. Then, finding a successful manager might be a little bit easier.
Scott Barzilla is a teacher in League City, Texas. He is the author of Checks and Imbalances and The Status of Baseball Management. They can be found on Mcfarlandpub.com, Amazon.com, or Barnesandnobles.com.
How do we rate managers?
By Scott Barzilla
In the past few decades statistics in baseball have come a long way. In particular, rating hitters and pitchers is a lot easier now than it was thirty years ago. In fact, in the last decade defensive metrics have also come a long way. Even though we still have a ways to go we have a pretty good idea. However, managers are a lot more difficult to rate. How much credit or blame do we give managers for their team’s performance?
The problem with baseball is that most of the action is one on one, so strategy and coaching is not nearly as important as it is in the other sports. Players develop their craft in the minors for three to five years before they even come to the big leagues. Usually, a change in managers, pitching coaches, or hitting instructors does not change how a hitter hits or a pitcher pitches. So, what does a manager control? Managers are usually judged on how the shape the lineup, when they use subs, and how they handle the pitching staff.
Contrary to popular belief, most of the credit or blame for how a team performs lies with the general manager. The talent or lack of talent on the team determines how good they will do. This is another major difference between baseball and the other sports. There is not one manager in baseball that is also mostly responsible for player personnel. In football and basketball there are a good number of coaches that are also responsible for player personnel. It used to be that way in baseball with the likes of John McGraw and Connie Mack. Managers these days don’t have that kind of clout.
So, if most of the credit goes to the general manager then how much goes to the manager? When sabermetrics was gaining a foothold, the Pythagorean method was developed. Most teams should match their expected record based on the number of runs they give up and the number of runs they score. No one has come up with a good reason why some teams overachieve and others don’t. When there is no reason we usually assume it is attributable to randomness, but we do notice that good teams tend to overachieve and bad teams tend to underachieve.
Yet, the question with the Pythagorean method is whether is can be used to evaluate managers. Of course, if we have learned anything in sabermetrics it is that no single statistic can explain everything. So, like when we evaluate hitters, pitchers, and fielders, when we evaluate managers we have to use a variety of measures. In our analysis today we will see their record, winning percentage, average finish in standings, post-season appearances/successes, and their Pythagorean record. It isn’t perfect, but it may be a start. We will include the twelve managers at the big league level that have managed at least five complete seasons.
1. Bobby Cox
Record: 1906-1465 (.565)
Standing: 2.3
Postseason: 12 division championships, 5 pennants, 1 World Series title
Pythagorean: +40
Per Season: +1.90
2. Joe Torre
Record: 1680-1509 (.527)
Standing: 2.5
Postseason: 8 division championships, 6 pennants, 4 World Series titles
Pythagorean: +23
Per Season: +1.21
3. Dusty Baker
Record: 928-789 (.540)
Standing: 2.1
Postseason: 3 Division Championships, 1 pennant
Pythagorean: +18
Per Season: +1.64
4. Felipe Alou
Record: 791-778 (.504)
Standing: 3.0
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: +15
Per Season: +1.67
5. Frank Robinson
Record: 846-909 (.482)
Standing: 4.0
Postseason: N/A
Pythagorean: +13
Per Season: +1.30
6. Tony La Russa
Record: 2009-1789 (.529)
Standing: 2.8
Postseason: 9 Division Championships, 3 Pennants, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: +11
Per Season: +0.48
7. Art Howe
Record: 1058-1046 (.503)
Standing: 3.3
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: +10
Per Season: +0.77
8. Jack McKeon
Record: 845-782 (.516)
Standing: 2.7
Postseason: 1 Pennant, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: +7
Per Season: +1.00
9. Bruce Bochy
Record: 694-746 (.482)
Standing: 3.6
Postseason: 2 Division Championships, 1 Pennant
Pythagorean: +6
Per Season: +0.67
10. Buck Showalter
Record: 634-595 (.516)
Standing: 2.8
Postseason: 2 Division Championships
Pythagorean: -1
Per Season: -0.11
11. Lou Pinella
Record: 1382-1234 (.528)
Standing: 2.6
Postseason: 4 Division Championships, 1 Pennant, 1 World Series Title
Pythagorean: -2
Per Season: -0.13
12. Jimy Williams
Record: 866-746 (.537)
Standing: 2.6
Postseason: N/A
Pythagorean: -22
Per Season: -2.44
As everyone can probably tell, I am an Astros fan, so I found the results very interesting when I got to the bottom of the list. When you see his Pythagorean rating with the rest of them you have to wonder what the Astros were thinking when they hired him. Well, that is pretty obvious. Williams has the third best winning percentage among the twelve and his standing rating was tied for fourth among the twelve. Obviously, that’s pretty good right?
Well, when you see that he has never won a division championship your interest has to be piqued some. In some seasons, those two and a half games would have been enough to win the division. A quick look at the teams he has managed shows why his winning percentage is so high. A trained seal probably could have done about as well.
When we look at the top of the list we see that Bobby Cox has about as large a lead as Jimy Williams has a grip on last place. His team has won the divisional crown the last ten years in a row. Joe Torre and Dusty Baker finished second and third even though Tony La Russa has had more post-season appearances than both of them. The key in their case has been an incredible consistency over the past decade.
So, how do we use this information? Organizations could start looking at Pythagorean records when deciding on managers. This might prevent teams from being blinded by overall records and hire managers that will get the most of the talent that they have. Furthermore, when we study further we find that most of the great managers have strategy ideas in common. Then, finding a successful manager might be a little bit easier.
Scott Barzilla is a teacher in League City, Texas. He is the author of Checks and Imbalances and The Status of Baseball Management. They can be found on Mcfarlandpub.com, Amazon.com, or Barnesandnobles.com.