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06-28-2004, 10:29 PM
With the All-Star Break and All-Star Game rolling around soon enough, it is time to select my own All-Star Teams with a twist. The following will be a punched ballot of the offensive fantasy All-Stars based on most valuable. That means that a breakout star that was not drafted until the 15th round or acquired for a $5 bid in most leagues will be mentioned rather than A-Rod or Manny Ramirez. And more importantly, we will look at whether these guys can continue their hot performances for the long haul. So enough of leaving the chads hanging, let’s get to work!
American League Squad
Victor Martinez, C, CLE: Some people saw this one coming and some people saw Martinez ’s breakout as a surprise, but either way he was probably considered a sleeper for your league. The youngster is following up a solid 2003 debut by showing greatness in all widely used categories except for steals. He hit over .300 in his minor league career with power developing later, so the breakout is obviously no fluke. One concern is that this is his first full season in the majors, and he could wear down as the season goes along. Still, he should be among the top five AL catchers the rest of the way.
Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE: Cleveland adds another name to the list, which should tell us where this organization is headed. What Texas would not give to have Hafner at DH about now instead of trading him for Einar Diaz prior to last season. Like Martinez , Hafner has a great minor league track record. Unfortunately, his power has slowed and he is again showing an inability to hit lefties. That could play havoc with his batting average for the rest of the year, as Baseball Notebook sees him as a .272 hitter the rest of the way, reaching the 20 home run mark for the season.
Juan Uribe, 2B, CHW: Talk about a surprise. Uribe goes from swinging a twig in Coors Field of all places to swinging a big stick in the Cell Phone. Uribe has already equaled his major league high in homers and is hitting .300 for the first time since his rookie season. Maybe hitting coach Greg Walker has finally struck a chord with Uribe, but there is still major reason for skepticism. Uribe only hit .300 in the minors once and reached double digits in homers only once as well. His lack of plate discipline has really not improved much at all, and when you look at all three of those factors Uribe is a large risk for the rest of the way.
Chone Figgins, 3B, ANA: Figgins has been the savior of the Anaheim Angels, for lack of a better word. The utility man has filled in admirably wherever needed and now finds himself as Anaheim ’s starting third base with Troy Glaus done for the year. The two factors that we need to worry about from him now are plate discipline and playing time. His plate discipline has not been very good recently, and it could cause problems for him finding his way on base, thus less steals. Playing time is not an immediate problem, but the Angels do have one of the best third base prospects in the game in Dallas McPherson as well as an owner willing to spend. That means the likelihood of Figgins losing playing time later this season is much better than a player in a similar situation with another organization.
Carlos Guillen, SS, DET: The Mariners decided to give Guillen a new start and sign Rich Aurilia to a big contract. Few teams regret decisions more than the Mariners do this one about now. Aurilia has been atrocious and Guillen looks like a borderline star. Guillen was a pretty good minor league hitter, but we have to wonder whether a breakout like the one he is having will continue considering where he came from last season. Power is not one of his overwhelming skills of the past so the answer is probably no, but Guillen should at least be the same solid offensive shortstop for the rest of the year that he was in the past.
Melvin Mora, OF, BAL: Well, Mora has not played the outfield this year but he is eligible there in almost all leagues and we couldn't exactly not mention Figgins at third. Many that would like to say Mora’s breakout is such a surprise are forgetting that he did much of the same thing in the first half last season. Then he succumbed to injury following the All-Star Break, and that was all she wrote for his breakout season. Mora has already begun to have a bad month of June, so a slight breakdown becomes a good possibility. He has already shown solid hitting ability once so doubting him completely for this second occurrence would be narrow-minded to say the least.
Alex Sanchez, OF, DET: Sanchez has the tools to be one of the best leadoff men in the game, but he is not. He is a solid fantasy option for steals and his batting average has come to be something of a surprise thus far. He has pushed his batting average up via the bunt single but a complete and utter lack of plate discipline threatens his batting average. He has just five walks to 39 strikeouts as of June 21, and he is already beginning to slow this month. That's without mentioning his stolen base success rate which is less than 50%. While he should be a decent option for steals the rest of the way, his stellar performance thus far should continue to decay.
Lew Ford, OF, MIN: The Twins traded Dustan Mohr because they knew Ford was a capable backup outfielder. Ford has been that and more. He is hitting over .300 and is on pace to nearly become a 20/20 man. And while Ford did hit in the minors, he has slowed considerably more recently. With the Twins finally completely healthy it will become harder and harder for Ford to stay in the lineup on a daily basis, so his best performances this year are likely behind him.
Ken Harvey, DH, KC: Harvey has really brightened the future for Royals fans with his strong play this season. He is well within contention for the batting title and is also showing some pop. His performance is not out of his minor league performance characteristics – he did hit over .300 at every level except Triple-A – but you have to wonder whether his lack of plate discipline will allow this performance to hold the test of time. His BB/K ratio is not much better than it was last season, and usually the result is a much lower batting average than what it is right now.
National League Squad
Johnny Estrada, C, ATL: Believe it or not, the return for Kevin Millwood is actually having a better season than Millwood. Estrada is a very similar hitter to Paul Lo Duca in his approach. He is not a big fan of taking pitches and will consistently put the ball in play. In essence, he is the reverse aspect of the DIPS concept which includes a theory that balls put in play have a 30% chance of being a hit. You always have to wonder whether a player in his first full major league season will hold up for the long haul, and Estrada has already begun to breakdown this month. His approach should always provide a respectable batting average, but expecting continued success to the degree that we have seen may be a little much.
Lyle Overbay , 1B, MIL: Overbay is in a similar situation to his AL counterpart Ken Harvey. He has a good minor league track record but is coming off of a less than stellar rookie season. Overbay has received a new beginning with the Brew Crew and has been a great producer. Like Harvey , Overbay is in contention for his league’s batting title. Overbay's plate discipline is much better than Harvey ’s but it would be hard to expect him to continue his incredible level of play for the entire season unless he is related to Albert Pujols.
Alex Cora, 2B, LA: Cora is one of the most interesting situations around. He is in a strict platoon with Jose Hernandez, and that more than anything else is likely what is holding up his batting average to this point. Hitting .290 in the majors is not foreign to him either, nor is hitting near the Mendoza Line. If we look at Cora’s splits from the past month-by-month we see a player with overwhelming streakiness in terms of his hitting, and that would lead one to believe that we have seen the best he has to offer this season. Expect a regression to his career mean.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, LA: Speaking of streakiness, Adrian Beltre is set to have a career year in his contract year. Beltre is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball along with teammate Shawn Green, but the good news is that much of the good streakiness seems to take place in the second half. Scouts have always loved his ability, and history would indicate that he has more solid performances to come. The risk that Beltre always brings due to his streakiness does not make him a great buy candidate.
Jack Wilson, SS, PIT: When we have nothing from a player’s career to compare a breakout performance to (albeit minor league stats) it is usually not a good sign. See Jack Wilson. Wilson did hit every so often in the minors with the Cardinals, but his performances were certainly not as good as they have been so far this season. With a lowered walk rate Wilson turns into even more of a concern, and the chances of him maintaining this level of performance are in doubt.
Danny Bautista, OF, ARI: Bautista has hit in the majors in the past, but he has received little notice during those occurrences due to injuries. He has stayed completely healthy during the first half of the season and put in a fine performance. Bautista has a good swing, good track record and solid plate discipline. If he can stay healthy, there is very little stopping him from continued success.
Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, CIN: This is kind of out of the ordinary for this All-Star Team; a star known the world over making the list. Many people had probably given up on the risk that is Griffey (I'm one of them), and he has turned our heads back to him. He is not the same as he was in the mid-90s, getting out of that little basement we used to call the Silverdome having much to do with that, but Griffey is hitting homers as often as ever. If he is able to stay healthy for the rest of the year, and that is certainly a big if, he should continue to excel.
Craig Wilson, OF, PIT: This pinch-hitter extraordinaire has never gotten a chance for regular playing time because no one thought he could hit right-handed pitching enough to play at first base or an outfield corner. He has proved all of those people wrong thus far. Though, if you have not looked recently Wilson is in a huge slump this month. That is all due to his terrible plate discipline, as he is on pace to get close to the single-season strikeout record. As a result, we should expect a dropping batting average the rest of the way, though he is a legitimate power hitter.
In Closing…
The most common theme for the players above (though there are a few exceptions) is youth. Most of the players that have broken out this season are on an upward curve in terms of their age and career development. No matter what happens for the rest of this year, most of them still have a very bright future in the majors and on your fantasy team as well.
American League Squad
Victor Martinez, C, CLE: Some people saw this one coming and some people saw Martinez ’s breakout as a surprise, but either way he was probably considered a sleeper for your league. The youngster is following up a solid 2003 debut by showing greatness in all widely used categories except for steals. He hit over .300 in his minor league career with power developing later, so the breakout is obviously no fluke. One concern is that this is his first full season in the majors, and he could wear down as the season goes along. Still, he should be among the top five AL catchers the rest of the way.
Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE: Cleveland adds another name to the list, which should tell us where this organization is headed. What Texas would not give to have Hafner at DH about now instead of trading him for Einar Diaz prior to last season. Like Martinez , Hafner has a great minor league track record. Unfortunately, his power has slowed and he is again showing an inability to hit lefties. That could play havoc with his batting average for the rest of the year, as Baseball Notebook sees him as a .272 hitter the rest of the way, reaching the 20 home run mark for the season.
Juan Uribe, 2B, CHW: Talk about a surprise. Uribe goes from swinging a twig in Coors Field of all places to swinging a big stick in the Cell Phone. Uribe has already equaled his major league high in homers and is hitting .300 for the first time since his rookie season. Maybe hitting coach Greg Walker has finally struck a chord with Uribe, but there is still major reason for skepticism. Uribe only hit .300 in the minors once and reached double digits in homers only once as well. His lack of plate discipline has really not improved much at all, and when you look at all three of those factors Uribe is a large risk for the rest of the way.
Chone Figgins, 3B, ANA: Figgins has been the savior of the Anaheim Angels, for lack of a better word. The utility man has filled in admirably wherever needed and now finds himself as Anaheim ’s starting third base with Troy Glaus done for the year. The two factors that we need to worry about from him now are plate discipline and playing time. His plate discipline has not been very good recently, and it could cause problems for him finding his way on base, thus less steals. Playing time is not an immediate problem, but the Angels do have one of the best third base prospects in the game in Dallas McPherson as well as an owner willing to spend. That means the likelihood of Figgins losing playing time later this season is much better than a player in a similar situation with another organization.
Carlos Guillen, SS, DET: The Mariners decided to give Guillen a new start and sign Rich Aurilia to a big contract. Few teams regret decisions more than the Mariners do this one about now. Aurilia has been atrocious and Guillen looks like a borderline star. Guillen was a pretty good minor league hitter, but we have to wonder whether a breakout like the one he is having will continue considering where he came from last season. Power is not one of his overwhelming skills of the past so the answer is probably no, but Guillen should at least be the same solid offensive shortstop for the rest of the year that he was in the past.
Melvin Mora, OF, BAL: Well, Mora has not played the outfield this year but he is eligible there in almost all leagues and we couldn't exactly not mention Figgins at third. Many that would like to say Mora’s breakout is such a surprise are forgetting that he did much of the same thing in the first half last season. Then he succumbed to injury following the All-Star Break, and that was all she wrote for his breakout season. Mora has already begun to have a bad month of June, so a slight breakdown becomes a good possibility. He has already shown solid hitting ability once so doubting him completely for this second occurrence would be narrow-minded to say the least.
Alex Sanchez, OF, DET: Sanchez has the tools to be one of the best leadoff men in the game, but he is not. He is a solid fantasy option for steals and his batting average has come to be something of a surprise thus far. He has pushed his batting average up via the bunt single but a complete and utter lack of plate discipline threatens his batting average. He has just five walks to 39 strikeouts as of June 21, and he is already beginning to slow this month. That's without mentioning his stolen base success rate which is less than 50%. While he should be a decent option for steals the rest of the way, his stellar performance thus far should continue to decay.
Lew Ford, OF, MIN: The Twins traded Dustan Mohr because they knew Ford was a capable backup outfielder. Ford has been that and more. He is hitting over .300 and is on pace to nearly become a 20/20 man. And while Ford did hit in the minors, he has slowed considerably more recently. With the Twins finally completely healthy it will become harder and harder for Ford to stay in the lineup on a daily basis, so his best performances this year are likely behind him.
Ken Harvey, DH, KC: Harvey has really brightened the future for Royals fans with his strong play this season. He is well within contention for the batting title and is also showing some pop. His performance is not out of his minor league performance characteristics – he did hit over .300 at every level except Triple-A – but you have to wonder whether his lack of plate discipline will allow this performance to hold the test of time. His BB/K ratio is not much better than it was last season, and usually the result is a much lower batting average than what it is right now.
National League Squad
Johnny Estrada, C, ATL: Believe it or not, the return for Kevin Millwood is actually having a better season than Millwood. Estrada is a very similar hitter to Paul Lo Duca in his approach. He is not a big fan of taking pitches and will consistently put the ball in play. In essence, he is the reverse aspect of the DIPS concept which includes a theory that balls put in play have a 30% chance of being a hit. You always have to wonder whether a player in his first full major league season will hold up for the long haul, and Estrada has already begun to breakdown this month. His approach should always provide a respectable batting average, but expecting continued success to the degree that we have seen may be a little much.
Lyle Overbay , 1B, MIL: Overbay is in a similar situation to his AL counterpart Ken Harvey. He has a good minor league track record but is coming off of a less than stellar rookie season. Overbay has received a new beginning with the Brew Crew and has been a great producer. Like Harvey , Overbay is in contention for his league’s batting title. Overbay's plate discipline is much better than Harvey ’s but it would be hard to expect him to continue his incredible level of play for the entire season unless he is related to Albert Pujols.
Alex Cora, 2B, LA: Cora is one of the most interesting situations around. He is in a strict platoon with Jose Hernandez, and that more than anything else is likely what is holding up his batting average to this point. Hitting .290 in the majors is not foreign to him either, nor is hitting near the Mendoza Line. If we look at Cora’s splits from the past month-by-month we see a player with overwhelming streakiness in terms of his hitting, and that would lead one to believe that we have seen the best he has to offer this season. Expect a regression to his career mean.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, LA: Speaking of streakiness, Adrian Beltre is set to have a career year in his contract year. Beltre is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball along with teammate Shawn Green, but the good news is that much of the good streakiness seems to take place in the second half. Scouts have always loved his ability, and history would indicate that he has more solid performances to come. The risk that Beltre always brings due to his streakiness does not make him a great buy candidate.
Jack Wilson, SS, PIT: When we have nothing from a player’s career to compare a breakout performance to (albeit minor league stats) it is usually not a good sign. See Jack Wilson. Wilson did hit every so often in the minors with the Cardinals, but his performances were certainly not as good as they have been so far this season. With a lowered walk rate Wilson turns into even more of a concern, and the chances of him maintaining this level of performance are in doubt.
Danny Bautista, OF, ARI: Bautista has hit in the majors in the past, but he has received little notice during those occurrences due to injuries. He has stayed completely healthy during the first half of the season and put in a fine performance. Bautista has a good swing, good track record and solid plate discipline. If he can stay healthy, there is very little stopping him from continued success.
Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, CIN: This is kind of out of the ordinary for this All-Star Team; a star known the world over making the list. Many people had probably given up on the risk that is Griffey (I'm one of them), and he has turned our heads back to him. He is not the same as he was in the mid-90s, getting out of that little basement we used to call the Silverdome having much to do with that, but Griffey is hitting homers as often as ever. If he is able to stay healthy for the rest of the year, and that is certainly a big if, he should continue to excel.
Craig Wilson, OF, PIT: This pinch-hitter extraordinaire has never gotten a chance for regular playing time because no one thought he could hit right-handed pitching enough to play at first base or an outfield corner. He has proved all of those people wrong thus far. Though, if you have not looked recently Wilson is in a huge slump this month. That is all due to his terrible plate discipline, as he is on pace to get close to the single-season strikeout record. As a result, we should expect a dropping batting average the rest of the way, though he is a legitimate power hitter.
In Closing…
The most common theme for the players above (though there are a few exceptions) is youth. Most of the players that have broken out this season are on an upward curve in terms of their age and career development. No matter what happens for the rest of this year, most of them still have a very bright future in the majors and on your fantasy team as well.