Too Early to fold

[Sandy]

With three straight losses, (and 6 of 10), and having fallen 9 behind the division leading Cardinals, Astro fans are rightfully frustrated. But before the FANS start throwing in the towel, there are some things to consider.

1) The Cards lead is irrelevant - because the Wild Card exists. At the moment, the Cubs lead the race to the WC (why does that sound like someone with a bladder problem?), with a 46-37 record. So the 'Stros are actually only 4 games out of the playoffs at the moment.

2) The recent woes have ALL come against playoff contenders. After winning 3 of 4 from the Pirates (just BEFORE they went on their tear), Houston gets 6 games against the surprising Rangers, three against the Cubbies, and then the Padres. Two division leaders, and the current NL Wildcard team. While you'd like to win more of these, it IS tough competition.

3) The schedule gods have been a bit cruel - but there is hope on the horizon. After they finish the home/home swaps with the Pads and Dodgers, Houston gets a full MONTH of winnable games. Zona, Milwaukee, Cinci, Atlanta, Montreal, Mets, Phils -- (most home and home) -- before meeting the Cubbies again on Aug. 20th. It may not be like getting the Royals for a month, but a 4 game defecit at the break is trivial.

[PopTop]

Good points, Sandy. But I haven't thrown in the towel. Not anymore so than Ausmus, at least, since I agree with him it would be nice to turn this ship around and make the playoffs, or however he put it :hmm:

If I had thrown in the towel, I wouldn't have given up a couple-three hours of sleep each of the last two nights listening to "hall of fame broadcaster" Milo Hamilton's horrible voice crackling through the AM airwaves ... I'm disappointed, disgusted, disenchanted, disillusioned, distillated, distorted, disbelieving, distended, discouraged, discomforted, disfigured, dismembered and diseased ... But I have not dismissed our chances for the postseason and completely thrown in the towel.

[Astro Annie]

I'm over it, already. That little ditty was my way of dealing with Sunday's game. It's over and I've moved on. But somehow, I feel better when I can make the grim face and talk gloom. I can't jinx anybody that way.

[PissedPrincess]

I'm SICK of goddamn WC talk. SCREW the WC. Why can't a team I like win a goddamn division? :bonehead

[PopTop]

1) The Cards lead is irrelevant - because the Wild Card exists ... So the 'Stros are actually only 4 games out of the playoffs at the moment.

I'm going to continue to play devil's advocate with this, Sandy. Partly because I just love to debate, and partly because I'm one pessimistic SOB.

A few weeks ago when this current Astros death dive was still in its infancy, I thought Larry Dierker made the best point about why we shouldn't get too down on the team and its chances for postseason play ... Dierker commented that Houston's starting rotation was talented enough to dig the team out of the hole they had dug up to then ... He brought up a few teams in the past 10-12 seasons, one of them an Astros squad, that came back in the second half behind a talented pitching staff ... I agreed with him and still do: Strong & deep pitching can turn things around in a hurry.

But let's look at the standings and this "we're only a few games out of the playoff hunt" theory a little closer.

First, the current standings through 07 July in the NL (if you don't see your favorite team listed, it's because they are below .500, feel free to make your own list that is more complete):

NL EAST . . .W . .L
Phils . . . .44. .39
Mets. . . . .43. .40
Braves. . . .43. .41
Marlins . . .43. .42

NL CENT . . .W . .L
Cards . . . .52. .32
Cubs. . . . .46. .38
Brewers . . .44. .38
Reds. . . . .44. .40
Astros. . . .43. .41

NL WEST . . .W . .L
Dodgers . . .45. .37
Padres. . . .46. .38
Giants. . . .46. .39

Yeah, Houston might only be only a few games behind the current wild card leaders ... But they are six teams behind the wild card right now: Cubs, Padres, Giants, Brewers, Reds and Mets ... It's not difficult at all to make up a few games on one team ... But making up a few games on a half-dozen teams is a completely different story ... And you might as well think of us as being behind seven teams since we're tied with ATL at the moment and anyone who has followed the Astros for the past eight years or so can tell you the history of how that matchup usually ends up.

We might also include LA and Philly on that list as well ... Yeah, they're leading their respective divisions right now, but as close as those standings are, they are also as much in the wildcard picture as they are the divisional picture.

You also talked about the schedule being more favorable for us in the next few weeks ... Maybe, but the bottom line is of our remaining 84 games now that the Padres series is over, 44 of them are against those seven teams currently ahead of us or tied with us in the wildcard hunt, and another 14 are against teams currently leading divisions in the NL ... Now that really doesn't sound too favorable to me considering how poorly we've done against the better teams.

Bottom line, I think it's going to take a minimum of 88 wins to pickup the wildcard ... Forget the division; Tony La Genius and the Cards are just smoking everyone right now and until they do hit a few bumps in the road, I'm not going to expect them to blow the lead they've built up ... To get to 88 dubya's, the Astros have to win 45 of their next 78, certainly not out of the realm of possibilities ... But all those other teams ahead of them right now also have to win just X-number ... And it's been my experience that expecting that many eggs to fall into my basket at the same time is certainly out of the realm of good probability.

[barzilla]

Let me make a couple of statements here:

1) Why can't a team I like win the division?

I agree with this sentiment. However, I knew going into the season that it would be a tough divisional race. We all thought the Cubs would be that other team but put the Cards in place of the Cubs and we really shouldn't be surprised. That being said, does anyone have a team in the NL right now that sets up better in the playoffs than the Astros?

2) Have I given up?

This is a tough question. If the team keeps Jimy then yes I have given up. I have given up on Richard Justice and Jose Jesus de Burrito Juan Demarco Ortiz. Those guys must have been saved by Jimy from a certain death. That is the only way I can explain their dying loyalty to this guy. The Astros always keep their cards to themselves so I wouldn't be surprised if Drayton has had secret meetings with Jim Fregosi or whatever other managerial candidate he has his eye on. However, it is clear that this team is going nowhere with Jimy at the helm.

[Baseball Guru]

I still dont believe the Cards are for real in this division and I stand by this statement: When it is all over in September, the Cards will not even be in the playoffs....

I just dont think their pitching is good enough... JMO!

Throw out the Reds for the same reason--Their pitching is even worse!!

The Brewers are playing over their heads in the 1st half as they just dont have the talent to stay in this....

It will come down to the Cubs, Astros and Cards in the end.... I still think the Cubs are the team to beat as they were my prediction at the beginning of the year but I think the Stros and Cards will make things interesting.....

[Astro Annie]

I just dont think their pitching is good enough... JMO!

The Cards don't need good pitching. They have good defense to back up the lousy pitching and they have the offense to score more runs than their lousy pitching gives up. Or so it seems.

[Baseball Guru]

The Cards have been lucky by not having any major injuries to this point... They are only an injury away from Pujols, Rolen or Edmonds from falling apart... Rolen is having trouble with his knee and a MRI report shows no major damage but time will tell... Those 3 are studs but the rest of the team is nothing special IMO... They are a good defensive team as noted....

[PopTop]

I still dont believe the Cards are for real in this division and I stand by this statement: When it is all over in September, the Cards will not even be in the playoffs....

:eek: Now that is a bold statement! And I really like the way you think. I'm not quite as far out on that limb as you, James; they're 20-games up on .500 and that's a hard record to totally blow. But I do agree you and it was my initial notion in this division as far as preseason predictions: Cubs.

[Baseball Guru]

:eek: Now that is a bold statement! And I really like the way you think. I'm not quite as far out on that limb as you, James; they're 20-games up on .500 and that's a hard record to totally blow. But I do agree you and it was my initial notion in this division as far as preseason predictions: Cubs.


Yeah, figured I'd go out on a limb and make that statement:D

Wont lose anything if I'm worng:D

[barzilla]

I tend to split the difference. We are more than half way through the season so no one with a six game lead will fold completely. Yet, they won't run away and hide with this thing. They will be a factor but I tend to agree with Pops. This division will probably go to the Cubs.