Marlins Preview

[Baseball Guru]

SPRING CLEANING


1. Can you win with starting pitchers who must still show ID at R-rated movies?
If they're this good, probably so. The Marlins might have done well to add one veteran inning-eater, like the Angels did with Aaron Sele and Kevin Appier, but whose rotation spot would he have taken. Then again, Florida's young talent blows away Anaheim's. Dempster and Clement are the low-ceiling guys in this bunch. Penny and Burnett both took big steps forward in 2001, especially Penny, and Beckett is probably the best prospect of all. The greatest task for Florida will be to take it easy on these guys, to resist the temptation to ride them like veterans.

2. Is there enough offensive talent?
Yes. The Marlins were surprisingly adequate with the bats for much of 2001, tailing off late in the year. While Cliff Floyd probably played over his head in '01, more of their hitters can expect to improve than can expect to decline. Mike Lowell, Derrek Lee and Luis Castillo should all contribute more this year. While there are few superstars (none, unless you count Floyd), it's important to note that there are few holes. The only position that can really be considered a problem offensively is shortstop. If the rotation lives up to its potential, the offense only needs to be pretty good; and there's definitely enough talent to be pretty good.

3. Who the heck is going to come off the bench?
It's easy to say the Marlins can't afford to build a quality bench, but that lets them off too easily. That's the point of a bench -- you should be able to get guys cheaply. Florida non-tendered Dave Berg, who had use as a defensive utilityman and was a decent on-base guy. Eric Owens becomes much more valuable when he's a reserve, so that's one spot. Mike Redmond plasters left-handers. That's another. But the Marlins have designs on contending, and a contender needs to have more hitters off the bench.

4. Is this the relief staff of a contending team?
As currently constructed, probably not. As a unit built at a discount rate, it's not too bad. There are quite a few guys who can get Major League hitters out. However, Alfonseca is good -- not great. And with free agency and a big closer payday looming soon, it might be the right time to trade him. I hear Arizona could use relief help; do you think they have any more No. 1 starter-caliber prospects to give away? Seriously, though ... while it would be wonderful to deal Alfonseca for talent, no one is ready to step in as Alfonseca did when Matt Mantei was traded. Braden Looper, Armando Almanza, Vic Darensbourg... they're all competent, they're all adequate. But they're all the third or fourth guy you want out of your pen; not the first.

5. How much will management changes and uncertainty affect the product on the field?
It may depend greatly on the start these guys get. If the Marlins win some games early and establish themselves as playoff contenders, much of that may be forgotten. Players won't worry about the front office if they're playing games that matter. However, if the team starts slowly, dissatisfaction could creep in. In case you're wondering, the early schedule is brutal, with seven games against the Braves, six against the Phillies and three each against Houston, Arizona and St. Louis within the season's first five weeks. Ouch.

NEW FACES


LHP Nate Teut -- Yep, this is it, the only offseason acquistion. Teut, a big left-hander, was the return when Florida traded Jesus Sanchez to the Cubs. He had an ERA over 5.00 in Triple-A last season, so he probably won't contribute much to the big club this year.

[Baseball Guru]

LONG GONE


RHP Juan Acevedo -- He sure didn't stick around long. Acevedo, acquired in August for a minor-league infielder, departed for Detroit as a free agent.

RHP Alex Fernandez -- Fernandez had pitched 193 1/3 innings in four seasons, and finally decided to hang it up. He was one of the best when he was healthy, but he hadn't pitched since 2000.

LHP Jesus Sanchez -- Dealt to the Cubs for Teut. With the emergence of all the youngsters in the rotation, there really wasn't a place for Sanchez. And since he's arbitration eligible, it didn't make much sense to keep him around. Sanchez has quite an upside, but not like Beckett, Penny or Burnett.

RETURNING FROM INJURY


RHP Chuck Smith -- Smith picked a very bad time to injure his elbow -- just as Beckett was emerging. He was a wonderful surprise as a 30-year-old rookie in 2000, but seems a long shot to get back in to the rotation. With a shaky bullpen, Smith could be tremendously valuable in long relief, however. He'll have a job with this team -- just not as big a job as he's had in the past.


NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK


SS Pablo Ozuna -- Ozuna missed the season with a wrist injury. But as one of the keys in the trade that sent Edgar Renteria to the Cardinals, he'll get plenty of chances. It also helps his cause that starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez has had consecutive tough seasons with the bat. Gonzalez will be expensive soon, and if his production doesn't match his price tag, Ozuna could get a chance sooner rather than later.

1B Nate Rolison -- Like Ozuna, Rolison missed much of 2001 with a wrist injury. He's shown excellent power and a willingness to take a walk, and he's already spent a year in Triple-A. If he's healthy, he may have a spot on the Marlins bench this year, and could eventually push Derrek Lee.

RHP Kevin Olsen -- The next Marlins pitching prospect isn't a potential superstar in the vein of Brad Penny and Josh Beckett, but has a chance to contribute. He carved up Double-A hitters in 2001. The Marlins have more starters than they know what to do with, so they'll probably let Olsen spend the year in Triple-A.

OF Abraham Nunez -- Why not to worry about batting average, exhibit 4,971. Nunez hit .240 in Double-A, but drew a ton of walks and hit for great power. The Matt Mantei trade is already a great deal for the Marlins, because it netted Penny, but if Nunez pans out, it could start to look like Bagwell-for-Andersen.

ON THE REBOUND


2B Luis Castillo -- Despite his amazing ability to avoid RBIs, Castillo is critical to Florida's offense. He needs to approach his .418 OBP from 2000 in order for the Marlins to score enough runs to contend. His defense is nothing special, but if Castillo gets on base 40 percent of the time and steals 60 bases, the Marlins won't mind.

1B Derrek Lee -- Lee actually began rebounding in the second half of 2001. He enjoyed a strong second half, even while the rest of Florida's offense vanished. Lee needs to be the second big bopper in the middle of the order, complementing Cliff Floyd to make a powerful left-right combination.

OF Preston Wilson -- Wilson didn't have a bad year, but it wasn't as good as the team needed. He brought his strikeouts back in line somewhat; the problem is that his walk rate declined as well. Wilson's lifetime .334 on-base percentage just isn't good enough in the middle of the order. His potential is unbelievable, but he has yet to realize it fully.

RHP Ryan Dempster -- Just 24 years old, Dempster is the dean of the Marlins' rotation. His inconsistency frustrated the team all year long. He was dominant sometimes and way off other times. Dempster needs to be a leader on this staff, and he needs to be a dependable rock in the rotation.

THE BOTTOM LINE


On the field, the Marlins don't have all that much to sort out. They've got very few positional battles anywhere on the roster. Of course, they more than make up for that will the uncertainty off the field. Who will be the manager? Who will be the GM? At least they do now have a Spring Training site, but these are big questions. It would be tough for a veteran team to put them aside; for a club this young it will be a mighty challenge.

Matthew Leach is editor-at-large for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.