Buy or Sell?

[barzilla]

As the sayings go, pretty soon it will be time to "**** or get off the pot" or "fish or cut bait". I'm straddling the fence on this one. I don't want to give up, but I don't think one more important piece necessarily throws us over the top. However, I'm listing the scenarios under Buy or Sell.

Buy

1. Get a relief pitcher.

There are a few candidates in this category. Jose Mesa will probably be available in Pittsburgh, but he has had a shaky career. He would fall into the win it now category because I don't see him staying. Ugueth Urbina might be a beyond this year kind of closer and he would be an impact kind of guy. He would also command more. Arthur Rhodes would be a nice lefty reliever and would likely be cheap, but isn't getting a lefty reliever kind of like rearranging deck chairs on the Titantic?

2. Get a starter

Follow me here. A team that was supposed to have six or seven quality starters is suddenly limited to Oswalt, Clemens, and Pettitte. Pete Munro is a decent fifth starter but as long as Jeremy Griffiths and/or Brandon Duckworth is the fourth starter we are going nowhere. Here is a brief list of available arms:

Randy Johnson- How many prospects do we have left? None after this deal. You talk about going for broke.

Kris Bensen- the Bucs want a good young position player in return. We have some good young outfielders that could be dealt or you could part with a Tommy Whiteman if they could convert him to third base.

Livan Hernandez- he is not officially on the block, but I have to think that ownership in Washington (the presumed favorite for Montreal) will want to clear as much room as possible.

Kevin Millwood- the Phillies want to dump the disappointing Millwood. He is expensive, but it wouldn't cost a lot to get him. He also might blossom as a fourth starter.

Ted Lilly- Toronto's only all-star but they are out of it. JP Riccardi might rape us though for someone that isn't a top notch starter.

Miguel Batista- also a Toronto pitcher and also not a top notch pitcher. Good as a fourth starter though.

Sell

This is a whole lot easier. Right now there are three guys who could possibly be traded and only two of those are remotely realistic. The tradable guys? Biggio, Beltran, and Kent. For me, Biggio is unrealistic for a number of reasons and the other two will bring more in return.

Kent

1. Yankees- they have had a hole at second bigger than the Grand Canyon considering a team that has spent nearly 200 million. Unfortunately, their farm system is close to bare.

2. Red Sox- the Sox would convert him to first base and mercifully put Millar on the bench. I'm not sure this is a big enough upgrade for the Sox and their farm system is relatively bare. They will not part with Youkilis unless Beltran goes as well.

3. White Sox- they have been buyers with Garcia and Kent would be a big name to add to the offense. Willie Harris is a decent second basemen, so I'm not sure how viable this is.

4. Athletics- Obviously Beane and Hunsicker get along well and Beane always makes moves near the deadline. They have loads of prospects to offer. Joe Blanton would be nice.

Beltran

Just about anyone who was involved last time (Red Sox primarily) would want a piece of this guy. I would imagine you could pry Youkilis from the Red Sox (in addition to others) if you put Kent and Beltran in the same package.

Where do I stand? Like I said, I'm on the fence. I think a Bensen could fill some holes we have but we still have others to fill. This club has the feel of a boat that keeps springing leaks. Hunsicker continues to close one hole and another one bigger seems to pop up. Yet, we are only a few games separated from the wild card. Bringing in a very good reliever or solid starter could close that gap.

However, I think all of us have this sick feeling in the back of our mind that this thing is coming to an end. Trading Kent and Beltran would free up money for next season and it would force the organization to strongly consider rebuilding. Right now we have about three weeks before the deadline. Here is my order of moves:

1. Fire Harry Spillman and promote either Gary Gaeitti or Jose Cruz. See if a new voice can get a spike in the offensive numbers.

2. If that doesn't work (IMMEDIATELY) then fire Jimy. Hire Lamont, Fregrosi, or another middle of the road manager without any promises for 2005.

3. If you think you are still in the hunt then acquire what you need. If you are still out of it then dump Beltran and Kent.

I don't think you can dump guys without doing the first two. First of all, it is the obvious thing to do and second, you have gone to too much effort to put this thing together not to try the obvious.

[Toy Cannon]

The first 2 weeks after the All-Star break are critical. Alot depends on how St. Louis fares and even more depends where we stand in the wild card race. If the Astros climb in the standings, Beltran and Kent will be here for the rest of the ride. If, however, the offense continues to sputter then I look for the dumping to begin.

It's a tough situation when it comes to dealing for a reliever. You don't want to over-pay if you don't think reaching the post season is likely. Reaching the post season however, IMO, depends on whether or not you can obtain a quality reliever. Catch 22:notme:

The two guys I really like are Jamie Walker of DET and BJ Ryan of Balt. Joe Table would be OK and U.U.U. would work, but they are both late inning guys. You have to have someone to bridge the gap. You don't know which Whethers will show up, Harville and Gallo have sucked and Redding is not the answer. There in NO ONE that is dependable. :angry:

I like your idea of picking up a SP, but when do you do it? Do you wait 2 weeks to see what happens or do you do it now to try to make something happen?

These are really tough decisions. It would all be so much easier if the damned offense would just do their part.

[rockin500]

I'd agree with TC that the first 10 days after the break is make or break time. i know for us, if we want any shot of beating StL, its gotta be this weekend. Let's both of us sweep this weekend, alright? :)

benson could be a good player to buy as he wont kill your system to get him i wouldnt think. not like randy would.

[PissedPrincess]

Guys, geez...you're sounding like Sox fans.

The Stros are the most talented team in that division by an EFFING mile.

[Toy Cannon]

Guys, geez...you're sounding like Sox fans.

The Stros are the most talented team in that division by an EFFING mile.
But they're not producing and the team is falling behind. I'm especially concerned about Bagwell. I think his shoulder is hurting alot more than anyone knows. They can't wait until august to do something.

[PissedPrincess]

But they're not producing and the team is falling behind. I'm especially concerned about Bagwell. I think his shoulder is hurting alot more than anyone knows. They can't wait until august to do something.

Cards-Pitching SUCKS.

Cubs-Cursed.

Brewers-Nice story, but not this year.

Pirates-Please. :hmm:

Who's left? You fine folk. It would be a MAJOR disaster worthwhile of Jimy's BEHEADING nevermind firing if you don't win this division.

[Sandy]

It's a tricky balancing act (regardless of buy or sell), because even if you're buying, you have to at least "think" about the future. The key point are: Kent, Biggio, Beltran are all FAs. Bags is nearing the end of his run, and Clemens is a short-termer at best.

In truth, I'm not worried about the rotation. If you can get Miller, Oz and Pettitte healthy at the same time, you've got a big three that can compete. And the Astros HAVE shown the ability to develop pitchers, so I'm not all that concerned with the staff, in all honesty. Yeah, dumping Wagner and Dotel in short order makes the pen kinda thin - but I figure with guys like Barzilla coming up, :-) the outlook isn't totally bleak, (though I think Saarloos could've been that bridge guy they need). Moreover, MRs are one of the cheapest commodities in FA.

The bigger concern is what happens to the OF. Lane may fill one slot nicely, but then you've got a gaping hole AND no bench to speak of. I think the odds of Beltran returning are next to nothing. I think another 3-way deal is the most likely scenario.

If we sell, only the super-rich can afford Beltran and/or Kent. (Yanks, BoSox, Angels, Cubs, Mets, LA, Rangers). The Braves aren't buyers any more, due to new ownership, and Ortiz looks likely to go after the break.

I'm thinking the Yankees are more likely to go after Vidro or Boone than they are Kent. Heck, they could simply pay Selig to give them Spivey. Basically, I don't think ANYONE is gonna give a decent offer for Kent, because there are too many high-priced quality 2Bs already on the market -- you're not gonna get full price for ANY of them.

If Beltran does go on the market, it gets a LOT more confusing.

Yankees - I honestly don't see how you pry Beltran into the lineup. They've got bats everywhere except second base, and Houston certainly wouldn't want any of the guys that Beltran would be supplanting. While Kent is more likely - I still think they go to Seattle or Montreal - where it's about money, not prospects.

BoSox - They finally get Damon, Nixon and Manny playing - so unless they send us Nixon, I'm not thinking they'd be majorly interested in renting Beltran either.

Angels - These guys might be desperate enough to take the plunge. They sunk a ton of bucks into Vlad and Colon, and find themselves BEHIND the friggin' Rangers. They also have an over-abundance of OFs as it is: Anderson, Vlad, Guillen, DaVanon, Salmon -- and Chone Figgins if Glaus returns in September. The concept of swapping something like DaVanon and Guillen for Beltran -- or a 3-way deal to upgrade their rotation (since Colon has been dreadful), while dealing an MR (since they've got a bevy of relievers).

Texas - need pitching that Houston doesn't have to give, so while I think they'll be in the Russ Ortiz / Kris Benson hunt - the 'Stros won't get a sniff, unless it's part of a 3-way.

Dodgers -- this is the one *I* think is most likely. Their outfield is abysmally weak. They are stacked with all kinds of pitching talent to deal. And they didn't get into the FA pool in the off-season because the ownership move didn't get done soon enough. Werth is a sell-high candidate if there ever was one -- and while they've said they won't deal Mota - I could see them throwing someone like Alvarez or Martin into a package.

Werth/Alvarez (and/or a spec) for Beltran could make a lot of sense (if you're selling). If you're rebuilding, then pairing Werth with Lane and Berkman gives you a bright future from your OF. (I think Lima would shoot himself before returning to the Juice Box).

[Sandy]

If they're buying, IMO the thing they're hunting is middle relief. And middle relievers don't cost much on the open market.

Sullivan (KC)
Boehringer (Pitt)
Ligtenberg (Tor)

There's any number of MRs that could be had simply to save the club the million it'll cost 'em to pay these guys during the 2nd half that they're going nowhere. With Miser Maclaine at the helm, going cheap is the more likely route - and in this case, I think it's the right play. The club doesn't need "much" to get over the hump. If they shore up the bullpen, I think the plus of having Beltran both offensively and defensively will pay major dividends in the long run.

[Toy Cannon]

They need a LHP, IMO. What do yiou think about BALT's Ryan?

[PissedPrincess]

Sullivan is horrible. I don't get why everyone thinks LA is pitching rich. They have HIdeous Nomo and freakin WEaver starting. They wouldn't be starting if there was an alternative *I* :D would think.

[Sandy]

I could see him as a candidate - but his BB rate is TOO high. Yes, his K-numbers are out of this world - (and he's improved marginally this year), but I'm inclined to believe his ERA this year is more fluke than reality. Personally, I'd rather have Sullivan.

[barzilla]

Hmmmm, good points all. I think the Astros have four options in my mind. Standing pat is completely unacceptable so here goes my list in order of risk:

1) Fire Harry Spillman NOW (Right frickin Now) and see if the offense turns around under Gaetti.

2) Fire Jimy and Spillman after the all-star break and see what happens until the deadline.

3) Add a starter or middle reliever. This is difficult because you are committing to competing and giving up more prospects.

4) Give up and sell off as many parts as possible. This is very difficult because you are essentially committing to a rebuilding project in the future and you must decide what to do with nearly everyone. It will be difficult in particular to decide on all of the Bs.

Personally, I think you try number one now. Why wait? Are you worried about a Harry Spillman lovefest fallout at the all-star game? Then, I would give that about ten games and then move onto number two. Then it gets tricky. Based on what you see from the new hitting coach and new manager you must decide on whether to go with number three or four.

I think the best solution would be to negotiate with either Phil Garner or Jim Fregosi on taking over the team after the all-star break. Go ahead and fire Spillman as well and bring up Gaetti. That gives you a solid two weeks to decide whether you are buying or selling.

As far as Miller is concerned, I know he will be gone at least a month and who knows how effective Munro will be. Clearly, if this team cannot get consistent starting pitching outside of Clemens and Oswalt then they are done. Pettitte and Munro must start pitching consistently for us to have a chance. Otherwise, you keep your fingers crossed with the fifth starter. I think you have to get another starter if you want to compete.

[PopTop]

Hmm, all of this is interesting goop, and Princess is right: We're starting to sound like Red Sox fans ... Not sure if that is good or bad to tell you the truth, probably has more to do with both groups of fans enduring the Wrath of 1M. :hmm:

Ok, I think we first step back and think of the fact that Drayton & Gerry were in "go for broke" modus operandi from the start ... I understand trying to get something for guys like Kent or Beltran of you're going to lose them for nothing ... But it's tough for me to get into that mode right now, and I can guarantee y'all that the front office will not show that hand, even if they're already leaning that way, until after all the media is gone from the All-Star Game.

Stepping back even further, we're paying for decisions made by the front office regarding the dugout management beginning in 2001 ... Getting rid of McCraw and Ruhle "just to shake things up" preceded the firing of Dierker ... And, God Bless Burt Hooton, I really like him, but neither he nor Spilman nor 1M have been able to hold a candle to the jobs that McCraw and Ruhle and Dierker did over their span together.

You effing fire Jimy right now, don't even give the sum'b!tch a return ticket from the Left Coast ... I really don't care who you replace him with (too bad Don Baylor's not available right now) ... I'm seriously wondering about, short term, this year only, putting in a call to Phil Garner ... Don't think he's the longterm answer, but you make a deal with him to at least give him something to do in the organization regardless of whether you bring him back as manager.

And I really, of all the names mentioned, I really like Ryan from Baltimore if he really is available ... Benson or Quarter Pounder (Livan) would also be near or at the top of my list, depending on the news regarding Wade Miller ... Call up Chris Burke for good, too bad about him not being eligible for ROY next year, we have bigger effin' fish to fry at the moment ... Tell the two Jeff's to sh!t or get off the pot ... If Burke can hit and play some dee, then you tell Kent and Bagwell to duke it out for the 1B job, it's up to them, and the loser you intend to shop in the next few weeks.

That's what I'd do if I was in charge.

Oh, I'd probably find jobs for 'Zilla, Toy, Sandy and a few others in my front office :smokin: Maybe bring Princess in to be the team spokesman, can you dig it? Nobody else in the front office or the dugout can talk to the press, Jacqui answers all questions. :clap:

[barzilla]

Well, let me make a couple of observations:

1. Sandy, when did you become an Astros fan? I'm not complaining, but I was just wondering.

2. I think we all agree that Jimy should go. The question is when it would be prudent to do so. If this were any other season I think he would be gone now but with the All-star appearance I can see that it wouldn't be prudent. In all honesty, if TC, Sandy, and I were actually in charge we would probably wait too.

3. I think the natural progression of things is to fire instructors first and then managers. That is why McGraw and Ruhle were given their pink slip before Dierker. Personally, I don't think you should ever fire a manager mid-season unless you think the team honestly has a chance to do something if a change is made. That is why I didn't support the firings in 2000 but would support one for Spillman now.

4. Watching tonight's game I realized we have a desperate need for a setup man. Of course, that is because Jimy doesn't trust anyone in that role. He would rather burn out Lidge's arm than give Weathers or Miceli work in the 8th inning. Either way we could be out of it by August. This is the problem with keeping Williams around. You are forced to make decisions to cater to his shortcomings as a manager. Now, you have a clear hole with Miller out and Redding ineffective but you first must address the lack of a setup man. Many of you have pointed to the need for someone to bridge the gap between the starters that go five or six and Lidge. Now, you can't fill that spot because Williams won't use Weathers so you must fill the 8th inning slot first. If Williams would just use Weathers in the 8th then you could go out and acquire a middle reliever without bankrupting the farm system. Without that, you must surrender another prized prospect or two to acquire a reliever with closing experience that Jimy will trust in the 8th inning.

What would I do? I would go to the Pirates and Expos and see which one would give us a better deal for a starter and reliever. You could offer a set of prospects you feel comfortable doing without (not Burke or AA centerfield *I can't remember his name to save my life, it is some kind of mental block that is driving me nuts*) hurting your future too much and see which one bites. Each package would include Bensen from Pittsburgh and Livan Hernandez from Montreal. Then you give each team a list of the relievers you'd like to have (Mesa, Boehringer, or Torres from Pittsburgh) (three from Montreal) and see which scenario fits. Then, you have your fourth starter and another quality bullpen arm.

[Toy Cannon]

Tavares

[rockin500]

tavarez from the cards? he's a headcase of the first order. i couldnt wait for him to be shipped off the cubs a few years ago.

[Astro Annie]

No, Willie Taveras. Speedy CF now at AA Round Rock. The guy whose name 'Zilla couldn't remember.

[barzilla]

Thanks Annie. As a school teacher I have to remember 150 names at a time. There are always a few that slip through the cracks. Apparently Taveras is one of those guys. I'll do the best I can to commit it to memory. I've always been one of those guys that can rattle off stats like Raymond from Rain Man. All I can say is that I am sufficiently embarassed.

[rockin500]

No, Willie Taveras. Speedy CF now at AA Round Rock. The guy whose name 'Zilla couldn't remember.
sorry, whenever i hear tavarez, i think of that bum julian. lol


BTW, you are only two behind us now. :( damn the cards. werent they supposed to suck this year?

[PopTop]

damn the cards. werent they supposed to suck this year?

All I know is both the Astros and Cubs were supposed to be better.

[Sandy]

Barz,

My baseball fandom bio goes like this.

In 1970 (age 7) I moved to Hamilton, NC. My next door neighbor was a little old lady (I cut her grass), who had a baseball signed by the entire Atlanta Braves team. I thought that was SO neat, that I became a Braves fan (and it didn't hurt that Hank was chasing the Babe, either). Only years later did I learn that my mom had a baseball signed by the '63 Yankees.

My dad was from Texas originally (and my folks divorced in 1970), and Dad moved back to Houston. He was a Cowboys and Astros fan. I became a Cowboys fan when he talked my mom into letting me stay up to watch MNF. In any case, Houston became my #2 team from that point on.

I'm still a Braves fan first (I suffered through the horrid 70s and 80s, so I have an appreciation for long-term failure). In the mid-70s somewhere, we went to visit my dad and his folks (one of the few times I've seen him in the past 35 years), and I went to my first MLB game - in the Astrodome. Of course, the 'Stros lost.

My Dad still lives in Houston - and I'm actually hoping to visit next summer. If/when the schedule comes together, I'll let you know (and I'm definitely gonna try to time it during a home stand - as I'd like to visit the Juice Box).

[barzilla]

That is a nice bio. I'll bet those divisional series between the Braves and Astros were really interesting for you.

BTW, I know you are hard at work on your fielding metric, but what are your thoughts on strikeouts? Ks seem to be a hotbed issue inside and outside of the sabermetric world. Not coincedentally, the Astros seem to have a huge problem with Ks.

[rockin500]

zilla, i love K's for one big reason: its a ball that is not put into play. it can be demoralizing to a team as well. the problem with the cubs is they strike out so much that it means they cant make contact.

when you have a guy at 2nd or 3rd with no one out, a strikeout is the best thing to get.

[barzilla]

Rockin,

That's true, but in the sabermetrical world we want to attach value to things. Everyone knows that a K with a man on third and less than two outs is huge but how do we quantify that? Currently, the runs created formula does not contain anything for strikeouts. So the question comes, if we know a person who makes contact consistently is better than someone that doesn't then how do we quantify that? How much better is the question. We need to attach some kind of fraction to Ks and subtract it from times on base (BB + H).

[Sandy]

barz,

I gotta admit that I'm kinda waiting for the SABR community to work all that out. My instincts are as follows:

The value of a K is fairly obviously higher than a BIP out. The question is whether it's worth "enough" extra to ultimately matter. For many of the plusses of the K, you can find counters -- no GIDP (except for the dreaded strike-em-out, throw-em-out DP) -- no runners getting thrown out trying to advance (the counter to the SacFly plus).

The thing that I "suspect" is that the relative value of "walk" to "single" is likely similar to that of "K" to "BIP-out".

[barzilla]

Sandy,

If a K is worth 90% of a ball in play so maybe something like:

(H + BB) - (SO * .01) = times on base