GaryMrMets
08-02-2004, 07:32 PM
http://yesnetwork.com/announcers/article.asp?article_id=223
Happy Birthday, A-Rod
http://yesnetwork.com/images/talent/small/pepe_head_sm.jpgBy Phil Pepe
Special to YES Network Online
July 20 2004
Updated July 27 2004
Twelve days before his 29th birthday, Alex Rodriguez cracked two home runs, his 23rd and 24th of the season, and the 368th and 369th of his career, leaving him 49 percent of the way to Henry Aaron's record.
Can A-Rod end his career as baseball's all-time home run champion? Not only is it a distinct possibility maybe even a probability every projection indicates it is likely.
Already, Rodriguez has reached 350 home runs at a younger age than any player in history, 28 years, nine months, nine days. When he hits 31 more homers, either this season or early next season, he will be the youngest to reach 400 homers. And he is on course to reach 500 home runs faster than Jimmie Foxx, who got there younger than any other slugger, at 32 years, 11 months and two days (see accompanying chart). To do so, A-Rod would have to hit his 500th by June 25, 2008. Based on his recent home run rate (an average of 45 per season over the last six seasons), Rodriguez would hit his 500th sometime in June of 2007.
But can he catch Aaron (or Barry Bonds) for No. 1 on the all-time list?
Again, the numbers favor A-Rod in that quest.
Let us assume he finishes this season at 390 home runs. It is not too far-fetched that, should he choose, A-Rod could play another 10 seasons after this one (of the 15 members in the "500 Home Run Club" who are not active, nine played into their forties). He would have to average 37 homers over those 10 years to exceed Aaron's 755.
Averaging 37 home runs a year for 10 years, even when he approaches age 40, should not be too difficult a task for a guy who has hit 156 home runs over the three previous seasons. Neither should playing until age 39 be a problem for such a physical specimen as A-Rod. The switch from shortstop to third base figures to add years to his career. The only question is whether Rodriguez can maintain his desire to play at that age.
I say he can, and will.
I also say when he does retire, his name will be on top of the list of the 500 Home Run Club.
Acclaimed author Phil Pepe is a regular contributor to YES Network Online.
PLAYER HR HR AT 29* AGE AT 500
Henry Aaron 755 298 34
Babe Ruth 714 238 34
Barry Bonds 683** 222 36
Willie Mays 660 279 34
Frank Robinson 586 291 36
Mark McGwire 583 229 35
Harmon Killebrew 573 297 35
Reggie Jackson 563 254 38
Sammy Sosa 559** 211 34
Mike Schmidt 548 190 37
Rafael Palmeiro 541** 132 38
Mickey Mantle 536 320 35
Jimmie Foxx 534 343 32
Ted Williams 521 197 41
Willie McCovey 521 201 40
Eddie Mathews 512 338 35
Ernie Banks 512 228 39
Mel Ott 511 306 36
Eddie Murray 504 258 40
Ken Griffey, Jr. 501** 350 34
ALEX RODRIGUEZ 370** 370 ??
* Number of HR hit before age 29, or during the season of their 29th birthday.
** As of July 27, 2004
Additional notes on the 500 Home Run Club:
+ Four of the 20 current members (Mantle, Mathews, Mays and Banks), were born in 1931.
+ Six of the 20 (Mays, Mantle, Mathews, McGwire, Murray and McCovey) have surnames beginning with the letter "M."
+ Four members (Foxx, Mantle, Mathews and McGwire), were born in October; three (Ruth, Aaron and Murray) in February; three (McCovey, Sosa and Griffey) in November.
+ At least one member was born in every month except April and December.
Happy Birthday, A-Rod
http://yesnetwork.com/images/talent/small/pepe_head_sm.jpgBy Phil Pepe
Special to YES Network Online
July 20 2004
Updated July 27 2004
Twelve days before his 29th birthday, Alex Rodriguez cracked two home runs, his 23rd and 24th of the season, and the 368th and 369th of his career, leaving him 49 percent of the way to Henry Aaron's record.
Can A-Rod end his career as baseball's all-time home run champion? Not only is it a distinct possibility maybe even a probability every projection indicates it is likely.
Already, Rodriguez has reached 350 home runs at a younger age than any player in history, 28 years, nine months, nine days. When he hits 31 more homers, either this season or early next season, he will be the youngest to reach 400 homers. And he is on course to reach 500 home runs faster than Jimmie Foxx, who got there younger than any other slugger, at 32 years, 11 months and two days (see accompanying chart). To do so, A-Rod would have to hit his 500th by June 25, 2008. Based on his recent home run rate (an average of 45 per season over the last six seasons), Rodriguez would hit his 500th sometime in June of 2007.
But can he catch Aaron (or Barry Bonds) for No. 1 on the all-time list?
Again, the numbers favor A-Rod in that quest.
Let us assume he finishes this season at 390 home runs. It is not too far-fetched that, should he choose, A-Rod could play another 10 seasons after this one (of the 15 members in the "500 Home Run Club" who are not active, nine played into their forties). He would have to average 37 homers over those 10 years to exceed Aaron's 755.
Averaging 37 home runs a year for 10 years, even when he approaches age 40, should not be too difficult a task for a guy who has hit 156 home runs over the three previous seasons. Neither should playing until age 39 be a problem for such a physical specimen as A-Rod. The switch from shortstop to third base figures to add years to his career. The only question is whether Rodriguez can maintain his desire to play at that age.
I say he can, and will.
I also say when he does retire, his name will be on top of the list of the 500 Home Run Club.
Acclaimed author Phil Pepe is a regular contributor to YES Network Online.
PLAYER HR HR AT 29* AGE AT 500
Henry Aaron 755 298 34
Babe Ruth 714 238 34
Barry Bonds 683** 222 36
Willie Mays 660 279 34
Frank Robinson 586 291 36
Mark McGwire 583 229 35
Harmon Killebrew 573 297 35
Reggie Jackson 563 254 38
Sammy Sosa 559** 211 34
Mike Schmidt 548 190 37
Rafael Palmeiro 541** 132 38
Mickey Mantle 536 320 35
Jimmie Foxx 534 343 32
Ted Williams 521 197 41
Willie McCovey 521 201 40
Eddie Mathews 512 338 35
Ernie Banks 512 228 39
Mel Ott 511 306 36
Eddie Murray 504 258 40
Ken Griffey, Jr. 501** 350 34
ALEX RODRIGUEZ 370** 370 ??
* Number of HR hit before age 29, or during the season of their 29th birthday.
** As of July 27, 2004
Additional notes on the 500 Home Run Club:
+ Four of the 20 current members (Mantle, Mathews, Mays and Banks), were born in 1931.
+ Six of the 20 (Mays, Mantle, Mathews, McGwire, Murray and McCovey) have surnames beginning with the letter "M."
+ Four members (Foxx, Mantle, Mathews and McGwire), were born in October; three (Ruth, Aaron and Murray) in February; three (McCovey, Sosa and Griffey) in November.
+ At least one member was born in every month except April and December.