PDA

View Full Version : Koufax or Blyleven??


imgreat95
01-11-2005, 01:40 PM
By Jim Caple
Page 2

Who would you rather have, Sandy Koufax or Bert Blyleven?

I know, I know. That's like asking which star from "Good Will Hunting" would you rather see in subsequent movies. But wait. The question is not as ridiculous -- or as easy -- as it first appears.

Say you are a general manager in an alternate universe and you can choose a clone of either the 19-year-old Koufax or the 19-year-old Blyleven, knowing ahead of time that both will perform exactly as they did in our major leagues. Wins, losses, ERA, innings -- all those stats on the backs of their Topps baseball cards will be exactly duplicated. The key aspect to keep in mind, however, is that free agency is still banned in this alternate universe. In other words, you'll not only get the pitcher for the start of his career, you will have lifetime rights to him (just as the Dodgers did with Koufax). He's your indentured servant for as long as his arm can still pitch.


All of a sudden, the Koufax or Blyleven question becomes less like "Matt or Ben?" and more like "Betty or Veronica?"

Who do you pick? The Hall of Fame pitcher who had three 25-win seasons, threw four no-hitters and won three Cy Young awards in a four-year span, but who only won a dozen games six times and was done by age 31? Or the non-Hall of Famer who won 20 games only once and never won a Cy Young award, but who won at least 14 games a dozen times, was still pitching at age 42 and finished with 122 more wins than Koufax?

Do you pick a short span of greatness or a long career of good, solid performances? Do you want the spectacular pitcher, knowing you'll have to find someone else to replace him soon? Or do you go for the guy you can build a rotation around for two decades? The pitcher who may put your team over the top right now? Or the pitcher who will help keep your team near the top for years to come?

Basically, I'm asking whether six great seasons (and Koufax was great for only six years and mediocre the rest of his career) are worth more than 15 good years (which is essentially what Blyleven had). It isn't an easy question.

Koufax was the biggest single reason the Dodgers won three pennants and two World Series in the early and mid-'60s. And those seasons are still an important part of that team's legacy. Without him (or a similar replacement, such as Juan Marichal), the Dodgers would have had a much different legacy -- one like the Giants, a frustratingly good team that never could win it all.

On the other hand, even a great pitcher in his prime doesn't guarantee a championship. (Roger Clemens was proof of this with Boston.) And while he couldn't match Koufax at his peak (not many ever have), Blyleven did help two teams win World Series championships, including the 1987 Twins.



Minnesota, in fact, won two World Series in five years. Yet by 1995, a terrible stretch of seasons for the Twins -- with plenty more on the way -- made those championships seem as if they had never happened. Fans quit coming to the ballpark. So winning big in a couple of years doesn't help much when you're stuck in the middle of a decade in last place.

As Red Sox fans are only too happy to tell you, winning the World Series can bring comfort to a lot of cold winters. But winning doesn't feel as good as losing feels bad.

So, again: Would you rather have a pitcher who might put your team over the top for a couple seasons, or someone who will help keep your team competitive for many years?

Koufax or Blyleven? The question might seem strictly hypothetical, along the lines of "What if Oprah could fly?" But really, it gets to the heart of what makes a Hall of Fame career. Koufax's brief span of greatness was enough to get him into Cooperstown, but wasn't Blyleven's longevity also a type of greatness? Doesn't being that good for that long make you great? Or do you just become really, really good?

I don't know the answer. But I do know that the very fact that this is a difficult question is a big reason why I cast my Hall of Fame vote for Blyleven this week.

ksushi
01-11-2005, 02:15 PM
I read that like a month ago, and although its a compelling arguement, i didn't care much about it then, i dont know now, koufax is a monster.

Obri
01-11-2005, 04:51 PM
I've long wondered about Bert Blyleven's absence from the Hall of Fame, and to pitch as well on poor teams as consistently as he did in his career is no mean feat. However, we're talking about Sandy Koufax here. Seldom has a pitcher with more wicked stuff taken a mound. I'd have to go for Koufax.

ksushi
01-11-2005, 04:53 PM
Yeah considering he in one of the top five leaders in 10-strike out games after WW2 and he only pitched until he was 30.

imgreat95
01-11-2005, 04:58 PM
Thats the point though... would you rather have someone to build a rotation around for 8 years or so?? or for 20 years or so??

I am personally not sure either way myself...

Yellow Dog
01-11-2005, 05:24 PM
I would take Koufax over ANY other pitcher I ever saw. I'm not taking anything away from Blyleven, he was a great pitcher in his own right. But the Koufax I saw, both on TV and in person, was in a class by himself IMO.

rockin500
01-11-2005, 05:56 PM
If i was building a team? Blyleven and its not even close. Koufax was a crappy pitcher for the first half of his career. then he had 6 great years. Give me someone solid and good for many years over crappy for several years and legendary for the other few years.

imgreat95
01-11-2005, 06:19 PM
I think I am leaning towards that same answer.

Think about it like this... If you were starting your own team... and you were looking at offense, would you rather have a guy like Joey Belle who played at a HOF level for 8 years or so?? Or Andre Dawson who was a borderline HOF player for about 16 years? As much as I liked Joey and what he did, I would take Dawson any day, because he assures me that I will need fewer extra parts over the long haul. I know that is a simplified version of my answer, but I guess I am not totally sold on Koufax. Jaymez could vouch for that one.

Special_K19
01-11-2005, 07:40 PM
Belle beats people up for calling him Joey.

But I'd take the dominant Koufax (or Belle) over Blyleven (or Dawson) for winning purposes. Koufax's Dodgers were championship teams when he was in his prime, the same is true for Belle's Indians (minus of course the championships, but a strong argument can be made that the Indians were the best team in baseball in that time span). On the other side, Blyleven and Dawson played for mediocre teams over that span.

The legendary guys give you legendary teams and I'll take that any day of the week.

imgreat95
01-11-2005, 07:52 PM
with free agency, if you had a player for 20 years as the cornerstone of your franchise, I think you could make quite a run of championships. Assuming that player competes at a high level.

Oh.. and I always liked the name Joey better....

Special_K19
01-11-2005, 08:00 PM
I'm just going on what those players did, and I didn't see Blyleven or Dawson making their teams consistent contenders. We could play a lot of what ifs with this one, but one of the presumptions of the article was you got the exact replica of the player, stats and all, and the bottom line was that Koufax led to championships and Blyleven didn't.

treasurecoast1
01-30-2005, 10:24 PM
Koufax gave baseball five of the greatest years ANY pitcher ever had.

I support Blyleven for the Hall of Fame, but Sandy Koufax hit a higher peak than any pitcher in my lifetime.

On a team with weak hitting (depressed due to the conditions of the time, granted), Koufax was the best player on a team that won two World Championships, a third pennant, and would have easily won a fourth pennant in 1962, had Koufax not been hurt the second half. (Those Dodgers finished in a tie for 1st and lost a playoff.)

Blyleven never did that. Blyleven was NEVER, not in his best year, as indispensible to his team, and a World Championship team at that, as Sandy Koufax.

Period.

Baseball Guru
01-31-2005, 03:25 PM
This is a fantastic question and great debate..

I am honestly leaning toward treasurecoast1's answer...

Koufax had 5 of the most dominant years any pitcher has ever had in any era... I also think Blyleven should be in the HOF but if I had to choose a 19 year old Koufax or a 19 year old Blyleven, I would take Koufax and his 5 "dominant" years over a long career of "goodness"

JMO:)

robmik
02-03-2005, 10:41 AM
I would take Koufax over ANY other pitcher I ever saw. I'm not taking anything away from Blyleven, he was a great pitcher in his own right. But the Koufax I saw, both on TV and in person, was in a class by himself IMO.

Agree completely, also agree with posts #12 and #13 here.

It has been noted before, that MLB rules in place early in Koufax' career (1955-57) prevented him from getting the minor league time that would have given him a lot more innings than Brooklyn could.
Such minor league time could have brought him to the majors at 22 years old, and IMHO, his first three full Dodger seasons ( theoretically 1958-60), would have been far more productive than they were.

The note above, about his early years being "crappy" fails to recognize the circumstances.

As an aside, "crappy" years like 11-11, or 8-13 would, today, bring a pitcher exalted status at free agent time, and likely $7 million a year...pitchers who aren't fit to do Sandy's ( or Bert's) laundry. :wink:

Not that additional criteria are needed, but keep in mind that, back when Sandy was racking up his Cy Youngs, there was just one a year for the combined major leagues. :cool:

barzilla
02-03-2005, 11:46 AM
Well, we have to consider a couple of salient points.

1) If we go with neutral records (taking out run support) Bert Blyleven would have been a 300 game winner (311 wins if memory serves). How he is not in the Hall of Fame is a big mystery and one of the biggest travesties in baseball history (Ron Santo would be the other).

2) Koufax's brilliant ERAs were put up during the best pitching era in baseball history after the advent of the live ball. They also came in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball history. I don't want to take anything away from Koufax, but we have to put his numbers in context. Like Ray said, he was a brilliant pitcher for six seasons. For most Hall of Fame observers, six seasons isn't even enough to constitute a prime. Yes, he was a Cy Young pitcher for three or four of those seasons, but that's almost as many as Bret Saberhagen, so that fact alone shouldn't put Koufax on that high a pedestal.

The peak value verus career value question is an interesting one. For me, it depends a lot on the era. In the modern era, having someone that can give you 200-250 innings for fifteen years is rare by itself. Look around rotations today. How many perennial 200 inning pitchers can you find? We haven't even discussed quality yet. When you factor in the fact that Blyleven pitched in an era which we could consider to be hitter/pitcher neutral then we see that the difference between his numbers and Koufax's numbers aren't as much as we might think.

Now, if you take me back to Koufax's time, pitchers that could hurl 200 innings practically grew on trees. Therefore, I would tend to lean towards dominance in that scenario because a Blyleven could be easily replaced. That would be untrue in the 1920s and 1930s where the best teams may have had one dominant starter and others that just hurled innings. Look at the 1927 Yankees, the 1929-1931 Athletics, and the 1936-1939 Yankees. Beyond Lefty Grove I defy most of you to name one starter on each of those teams. None of them could be considered dominant by Sandy Koufax 1962-1966 standards.

Then, in the Dead Ball Era you see a change back towards the dominant pitcher. The best team from the period (1905-1908 Cubs) had perhaps the best pitcher of the entire era (Three Finger Brown) with the Giants always in the hunt with Christy Mathewson.

So, what's the point of this long-winded drivel? For me, this question is not so much a question of taste, but time and place. If you're in a pitcher's park in a pitching era then you want dominance. If you're in a hitter's park in a hitter's era then you want durability. The Rockies have tried for years to find that dominant pitcher, but they've fallen flat on their face. Stack the rotation with durable arms that can give you innings and you'll be successful. On the flip side, put a bunch of mediocre pitchers in LA and you'll fall flat. It's all about time and place.

Baseball Guru
02-03-2005, 02:00 PM
Any chance you have the splits with home #'s vs away #'s for Koufax?

I can't imagine that his road #'s are all that bad considering his era was lower than 2.54 his last 5 years and under 2.00 3 of those 5 years....


Koufax's brilliant ERAs were put up during the best pitching era in baseball history after the advent of the live ball.

True the era's were down but consider that his era was more than a 1 run difference than the league average during his dominating seasons...

barzilla
02-03-2005, 04:56 PM
I can't find the home/road splits, but we do have park factors (they are at home) for both's home ballparks during their career. Let me show you what I do have. Here are the top five ERA+ for their career.

Koufax

1962. . . .143
1963. . . .161
1964. . . .187
1965. . . .160
1966. . . .190

. . . . . . .168

Now, keep in mind that this does not factor out ballpark effects. It simply takes his ERA and divides it by the league average. Now, let's take a look at Blyleven.

Blyleven

1973. . . .158
1974. . . .142
1977. . . .151
1984. . . .142
1989. . . .140

. . . . . . .147

So, Koufax is twenty percent better in his five best seasons BEFORE we factor in park effects. However, if we take seasons where they qualified for the ERA title (one inning per game) and had an ERA+ of 120 or higher this is what we found.

Blyleven= 11
Koufax= 6

So, Blyleven not only pitched longer, but he had nearly twice as many quality seasons. If we did the number of seasons above 110+ we would likely see an even bigger disparity. As it turns out, lowering the standards does nothing for Koufax, but look what it does for Blyleven.

Blyleven= 14
Koufax= 6

I'm sure what we would find is that Koufax beats Blyleven by around 10 points in ERA+ over their best five seasons (once ballpark effects are taken into account). Is that enough to surrender ten good seasons?