ROAD SHOW: Fun with Win Shares

[barzilla]

For those that haven't been around to the other road shows, win shares is a metric that Bill James developed to calculate what each individual player contributes to a team's win total. If you divide the win shares by three then you get the number of real wins a player contributed to the team. Here, we will see the 2004 total and a 2005 "projection" based on the three year average of the players. Here we go:

2004 Win Shares
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WS
C Javy Lopez. . . . . . . . ..19
1B Rafael Palmeiro. . . . ...12
2B Brian Roberts. . . . . . ..16
3B Melvin Mora. . . . . . . ..23
SS Miguel Tejeda.. . . . . ..28
LF Larry Bigbie. . .. . . . . ..11
CF Luis Matos.. . . . . . . ....3
RF Jay Gibbons. . . . . . . ....4
DH David Newhan. . . . . . .12

C Robert Machado. . . . . ....2
IF Jerry Hairston. . . . . . ....8
IF Luis Lopez. . .. . . . . . ....0
OF B.J. Surhoff. . . . . . . ....9
OF Tim Raines Jr. . . . . . ....1

SP Sidney Ponson. . . . . ....8
SP Daniel Cabrera. . . . . ....8
SP Erik Bedard. . . . . . . .....6
SP Rodrigo Lopez. . . . . ....14
SP Eric Dubose. .. . . . . .....1

RP Jorge Julio. . . . . . . . ....8
RP B.J. Ryan.. . . . . . . . ...12
RP Buddy Groom. . . . . . .....3
RP John Parish. . . . . . . .....6
RP Jason Grimsley. . . . . ....2
RP Eddy Rodriguez. . . . ......2

Grand Total...................228

The Orioles won 78 games in 2004, so the 228 win shares come within two of reaching that total. So, roster members 26+ counted two victories (six win shares). With the other teams we noticed that roster members 26+ have accounted for an average of five total victories (or 15 win shares). So, we can comfortably add that many to their 2005 Win Shares

2005 Projected Win Shares

C Javy Lopez. . . . . . . . . .20
1B Rafael Palmeiro. . . . . . .17
2B Brian Roberts. . . . . . . .10
3B Melvin Mora. . . . . . . . .18
SS Miguel Tejeda. . . . . . ..29
LF Larry Bigbie. . . . . . . . ..10
CF Luis Matos. . . . . . . . . ..8
RF Sammy Sosa. . . . . . . . .20
DH Jay Gibbons. . . . . . . . ..11

C Geromino Gil. . . . . . . . . ...3
IF Chris Gomez. . . . . . . . ....2
IF David Newhan. . . . . . . ..12
OF B.J. Surhoff. . . . . . . . ....6
OF Tim Raines Jr. . . . . . . ....1

SP Sidney Ponson. . . . . . . .11
SP Rodrigo Lopez. . . . . . .. .11
SP Daniel Cabrera.. . . . . . ....8
SP Bruce Chen. . .. . . . . . ....4
SP Erik Bedard. . . . . . . .. . ..6

RP Jorge Julio. . . . . . . . . ....9
RP B.J. Ryan.. . . . . . . . . . ..7
RP Steve Kline. . . . . . . . . ..6
RP Steve Reed. . . . . . . . . ..7
RP John Parrish.. . . . . . . . ..6
RP Todd Williams.. . . . . . . ..3

Grand Total. . . . . . . . . . .245

The total here adds up to almost 82 wins, so we can put the Orioles projected win total somewhere between 82 and 87 wins in 2005. Considering that they've added Sammy Sosa and two good relief pitchers that isn't totally out of the question. Plus, the Blue Jays have taken a step back in 2005 with the departure of Carlos Delgado. This win total should be good enough to put the Orioles in third in the AL East.

[PopTop]

I'm hoping that Matos can up his total by 5-10 in this category. Really like that guy for some reason.

Scott, if Julio gets off to a rough start, do you think Maz will hesitate throwing Ryan in the closer's role?

[Nanner]

Wow. This is excellent, Scott!!! :thumbsup:

It'll be interesting at the end of the season to see if/how the team followed these projections. :rock:

Wills, I know you love Luis-Luis - :D So do I. I'm hoping he'll be healthy this year and will have one of thoe good years I think he's capable of.

I don't think Maz will hesitate for a moment to put BJ in as closer.

[barzilla]

Yeah, I've been wondering that myself about B.J. Ryan. I don't have to tell anyone this, but ideally you will put your best reliever in the closer's role and Ryan was clearly the best on the 2004 squad (one of the great things about win shares is that it tells you those kinds of things). Over the last three years Julio has been the best, so Os fans have to hope that takes form.

As far as Matos is concerned, I was really disappointed in him this last season. I thought he was going to be a Melvin Mora kind of hitter but it never materialized. If he can develop into the kind of hitter Mora was a couple of years ago it will be a very good season for the Os. I don't think we can logically expect him to jump to 2003-2004 Mora because he has entered a rarified stratosphere.

Potential subplots for the team based solely on win shares is this:

1) How long will the club go with Matos and Gibbons if they continue to struggle. David Newhan had a strong season last year, but doesn't appear to have a home as of yet. Could he see regular duty somewhere (corners in the outfield)?

2) The starting rotation is a variable list of no names. Bruce Chen's name shouldn't be a strange one to half of the people here at Addicts considering the number of teams he's been on. He had a strong season last year and is in early projections of the rotation. Will the real Chen stand up or has he turned a corner?

3) Much of the staff were either rookies or in their second season. Will there be growth or are these guys just stopgaps? Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard could be huge in the rotation with any growth. John Parrish and Todd Williams could turn the Oriole bullpen into one of the best in the AL if they grow. The problem though is that these guys weren't exactly highly thought of as prospects outside of Baltimore, so it could be an iffy situation.

[Nanner]

One thing I think you have to consider with the pitching staff is how they'll perform with a whole season under Ray Miller as pitching coach. There was some improvement after he came in mid-season last year.

I think it'll be really interesting to see what will happen with him being there from the very beginning.

[barzilla]

I'm not sure I put as much stock in coaching as others do. Yes, Ray Miller is one of the best, but the improvement could have just easily been young pitchers developing naturally as coaching.