GaryMrMets
05-23-2005, 02:53 PM
http://www.nypost.com/sports/47010.htm
Long-Term Lemons
http://www.nypost.com/img/cols/jsherman.jpg
May 22, 2005 -- HARDBALL
This isn't the Subway Series. This is the Limo Series - and we are talking gas-guzzling, stretch-limos.
Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Bernie Williams and Mike Piazza still have jobs in this city because they possess seven-year contracts, not because they have anywhere near the skill presented when they initially signed those pacts. Of the 14 active contracts for at least seven guaranteed years, half were present at Shea this weekend. See, property does cost more here.
The good news for the New York teams is that the agreements for Brown, Williams and Piazza expire after this year. As always with Giambi, there is little good news. His deal keeps giving - or, in the case of his production, not giving - through 2008.
Yankee fans might like the star-studded left side of their infield, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. But get back to us in 2010 when their contracts both expire. How many grounders do you think will be getting through to left field then?
The reality is, these mega-contracts are just not worth the gamble - and not just those of seven years and longer. The group with five-year pacts includes the infirm and inept, such as Jeff Bagwell, Bobby Higginson, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle and Chan Ho Park. The six-year group includes Lance Berkman (coming off of knee surgery), Jim Thome (in a potential Giambi-esque dive) and Pat Burrell, whom the Phillies have seemingly wanted to trade since Feb. 5, 2003, which was the day after they signed him.
Amazingly, the Yankees actually did get out of one six-year contract when Drew Henson left to prove he is not much of a football player either.
But the accords for seven or more years have been almost uniformly horrible. The Rockies (Larry Walker, Mike Hampton), Pirates (Jason Kendall), Rangers (A-Rod) and Dodgers (Brown) all paid large chunks and/or accepted offsetting players they really did not want in return (think Jeff Weaver), simply to shed the greatest amount possible from their undesirable monetary commitments.
The Rockies (Todd Helton) and Reds (Ken Griffey) would love to unburden their financial headaches. The Red Sox actually put Manny Ramirez on waivers following the 2003 season, meaning they were willing to trade his contract for nothing.
Scott Rolen (Cards) is a wonderful player - but, in the third season of an eight-year contract, he is on the DL yet again. What will he look like in 2010 when his deal expires?
Carlos Beltran was two years younger than Bernie Williams was when he signed a seven-year deal, so maybe it will work out for the Mets. Better still, if seven years is a must, the Cardinals' deal with Albert Pujols is saner since he was 24 and becoming arbitration-eligible.
In fact, more enlightened organizations have recognized that the time to invest in players for an extended period is when you think you have a keeper who is not yet eligible for arbitration. That is the point to take a lower-risk financial gamble, buying out arbitration years (and perhaps a free-agent season or two) because you are assured of receiving prime-age years.
Texas did it with Hank Blalock and Michael Young last year, and in the past few months, Oakland (Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden), Tampa (Carl Crawford), Cleveland (Victor Martinez) and San Diego (Jake Peavy) have followed.
The Yanks had a chance to do this with Williams and Jeter, and instead abided George Steinbrenner's desire to go year to year, waiting until both players had the threat of free agency to sign them long-term. That cost the Yanks millions and assured that both pacts would extend well into non-prime years.
"In general, our job is to predict the future of players - and predicting next year is difficult enough," said one NL general manager. "So to predict six, seven years in the future, no one is that good. That is just too long to be comfortable that a player you almost certainly are paying to be elite is even going to be good."
DOWN THE LINE
J.D.'s kid brother could some day wear pinstripes
The Yankees only added fuel to what one AL executive called the "hot rumor" of the draft - that they are focusing on Stephen Drew - by sending in two scouts to see him play for Camden of the Atlantic League last week. Talent-wise, Drew was one of the top two or three players available in last year's draft, but many teams were scared off by the pre-draft demands expressed by agent Scott Boras.
Drew slipped to 15th and remains about $2 million apart with Arizona and if he is not signed by the end of next weekend, he goes back into the draft. Drew could slip to the Yankees at No. 17, this time because of too much inactivity, on top of Boras' demands. There also are DNA issues. Drew's brother, J.D., is a great talent who has worried his major league employers with his lack of desire. In his first 13 games for Camden, the younger Drew was hitting .386 with 11 extra-base hits. Stephen Drew is a shortstop, but the AL executive said there is "no doubt he has the athleticism to go play the outfield."
Another Boras client and brother of a major leaguer, Jeff Weaver's kid brother Jered, signed with Camden after failing to reach an agreement with the Angels, the team that selected him in the first round last year.
The Red Sox had their strongest David Wells moment to date when the lefty refused (as is his right) their request that he make at least one minor league rehab start after his recent DL stint (sprained right foot) ended. Instead, Wells started in Oakland and was bombed for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings. He is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Meanwhile, despite Curt Schilling's somewhat pessimistic report about his recovery from additional ankle problems, Red Sox officials say his rehab is going fine and that he will be back before the All-Star Game.
One AL executive who did not think much previously of White Sox left fielder Scott Podsednik has changed his opinion. "He is Carl Crawford without any pop," the executive said. "He is a totally disruptive player. I really think he is going to steal 75 bases." Podsednik went into the weekend with 25 steals - 11 more than anyone else. Podsednik stole 70 bases last year for Milwaukee, the most since Tony Womack stole 72 in 1999. No player has reached 75 since Kenny Lofton in 1996.
From the spilled-milk department: The Mets traded Jason Bay at the July 2002 deadline for Steve Reed and waived Brady Clark six months later. Today Bay (Pirates) and Clark (Brewers) are two of the NL's most productive outfielders. Bay entered yesterday with an .878 OPS with eight homers. Clark had an .883 OPS and was seventh in the NL, batting .337.
Much has been made of the Yankees blowing it by waving goodbye to Jon Lieber, especially when he broke out 5-1 for Philadelphia with a 2.73 ERA. But for a groundball control specialist, Lieber is exuding worrisome signals. He has allowed 12 homers, the second most in the majors. And Lieber already has issued 17 walks after permitting just 18 in 176 2/3 innings for the Yanks last year.
Long-Term Lemons
http://www.nypost.com/img/cols/jsherman.jpg
May 22, 2005 -- HARDBALL
This isn't the Subway Series. This is the Limo Series - and we are talking gas-guzzling, stretch-limos.
Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Bernie Williams and Mike Piazza still have jobs in this city because they possess seven-year contracts, not because they have anywhere near the skill presented when they initially signed those pacts. Of the 14 active contracts for at least seven guaranteed years, half were present at Shea this weekend. See, property does cost more here.
The good news for the New York teams is that the agreements for Brown, Williams and Piazza expire after this year. As always with Giambi, there is little good news. His deal keeps giving - or, in the case of his production, not giving - through 2008.
Yankee fans might like the star-studded left side of their infield, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. But get back to us in 2010 when their contracts both expire. How many grounders do you think will be getting through to left field then?
The reality is, these mega-contracts are just not worth the gamble - and not just those of seven years and longer. The group with five-year pacts includes the infirm and inept, such as Jeff Bagwell, Bobby Higginson, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle and Chan Ho Park. The six-year group includes Lance Berkman (coming off of knee surgery), Jim Thome (in a potential Giambi-esque dive) and Pat Burrell, whom the Phillies have seemingly wanted to trade since Feb. 5, 2003, which was the day after they signed him.
Amazingly, the Yankees actually did get out of one six-year contract when Drew Henson left to prove he is not much of a football player either.
But the accords for seven or more years have been almost uniformly horrible. The Rockies (Larry Walker, Mike Hampton), Pirates (Jason Kendall), Rangers (A-Rod) and Dodgers (Brown) all paid large chunks and/or accepted offsetting players they really did not want in return (think Jeff Weaver), simply to shed the greatest amount possible from their undesirable monetary commitments.
The Rockies (Todd Helton) and Reds (Ken Griffey) would love to unburden their financial headaches. The Red Sox actually put Manny Ramirez on waivers following the 2003 season, meaning they were willing to trade his contract for nothing.
Scott Rolen (Cards) is a wonderful player - but, in the third season of an eight-year contract, he is on the DL yet again. What will he look like in 2010 when his deal expires?
Carlos Beltran was two years younger than Bernie Williams was when he signed a seven-year deal, so maybe it will work out for the Mets. Better still, if seven years is a must, the Cardinals' deal with Albert Pujols is saner since he was 24 and becoming arbitration-eligible.
In fact, more enlightened organizations have recognized that the time to invest in players for an extended period is when you think you have a keeper who is not yet eligible for arbitration. That is the point to take a lower-risk financial gamble, buying out arbitration years (and perhaps a free-agent season or two) because you are assured of receiving prime-age years.
Texas did it with Hank Blalock and Michael Young last year, and in the past few months, Oakland (Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden), Tampa (Carl Crawford), Cleveland (Victor Martinez) and San Diego (Jake Peavy) have followed.
The Yanks had a chance to do this with Williams and Jeter, and instead abided George Steinbrenner's desire to go year to year, waiting until both players had the threat of free agency to sign them long-term. That cost the Yanks millions and assured that both pacts would extend well into non-prime years.
"In general, our job is to predict the future of players - and predicting next year is difficult enough," said one NL general manager. "So to predict six, seven years in the future, no one is that good. That is just too long to be comfortable that a player you almost certainly are paying to be elite is even going to be good."
DOWN THE LINE
J.D.'s kid brother could some day wear pinstripes
The Yankees only added fuel to what one AL executive called the "hot rumor" of the draft - that they are focusing on Stephen Drew - by sending in two scouts to see him play for Camden of the Atlantic League last week. Talent-wise, Drew was one of the top two or three players available in last year's draft, but many teams were scared off by the pre-draft demands expressed by agent Scott Boras.
Drew slipped to 15th and remains about $2 million apart with Arizona and if he is not signed by the end of next weekend, he goes back into the draft. Drew could slip to the Yankees at No. 17, this time because of too much inactivity, on top of Boras' demands. There also are DNA issues. Drew's brother, J.D., is a great talent who has worried his major league employers with his lack of desire. In his first 13 games for Camden, the younger Drew was hitting .386 with 11 extra-base hits. Stephen Drew is a shortstop, but the AL executive said there is "no doubt he has the athleticism to go play the outfield."
Another Boras client and brother of a major leaguer, Jeff Weaver's kid brother Jered, signed with Camden after failing to reach an agreement with the Angels, the team that selected him in the first round last year.
The Red Sox had their strongest David Wells moment to date when the lefty refused (as is his right) their request that he make at least one minor league rehab start after his recent DL stint (sprained right foot) ended. Instead, Wells started in Oakland and was bombed for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings. He is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Meanwhile, despite Curt Schilling's somewhat pessimistic report about his recovery from additional ankle problems, Red Sox officials say his rehab is going fine and that he will be back before the All-Star Game.
One AL executive who did not think much previously of White Sox left fielder Scott Podsednik has changed his opinion. "He is Carl Crawford without any pop," the executive said. "He is a totally disruptive player. I really think he is going to steal 75 bases." Podsednik went into the weekend with 25 steals - 11 more than anyone else. Podsednik stole 70 bases last year for Milwaukee, the most since Tony Womack stole 72 in 1999. No player has reached 75 since Kenny Lofton in 1996.
From the spilled-milk department: The Mets traded Jason Bay at the July 2002 deadline for Steve Reed and waived Brady Clark six months later. Today Bay (Pirates) and Clark (Brewers) are two of the NL's most productive outfielders. Bay entered yesterday with an .878 OPS with eight homers. Clark had an .883 OPS and was seventh in the NL, batting .337.
Much has been made of the Yankees blowing it by waving goodbye to Jon Lieber, especially when he broke out 5-1 for Philadelphia with a 2.73 ERA. But for a groundball control specialist, Lieber is exuding worrisome signals. He has allowed 12 homers, the second most in the majors. And Lieber already has issued 17 walks after permitting just 18 in 176 2/3 innings for the Yanks last year.