Durango53
08-17-2005, 01:49 PM
I know there are a few of you Pythagorean people out there and I read this and thought you all might like to look at it.
The baseball standings never lie, except when they do, and this is how the game's stat-loving community can explain the Twins' downfall this year in the American League Central.
A closer look at the numbers suggests that the Chicago White Sox wouldn't be running away from the Twins if the teams hadn't completely reversed roles.
Basically, the White Sox have become the Old Twins, and the Twins have become the Old White Sox.
It gets technical here, but according to a time-tested theory developed by statistical guru Bill James, the Twins should have been seven games behind the White Sox entering Tuesday, instead of 14.
In other words, the Twins should have been within striking distance of winning their fourth consecutive division title instead of feeling completely buried.
In the late 1970s, James devised a formula to determine whether a team had overachieved or underachieved, based on its number of runs scored and runs allowed.
It's called the Pythagorean winning percentage.
Based on the formula, the Twins overachieved en route to their three consecutive division titles. In 2002, for example, their run totals suggested an 86-75 record, but they actually finished 94-67.
That's plus-8.
The Twins were plus-8, plus-5 and plus-5 those three years, for a total of plus-18.
Then there's the White Sox.
Over those same three years, Chicago was minus-5, minus-2 and minus-1, for a total of minus-8.
So that's a 26-game swing for the Twins over the three years.
It just so happens the Twins finished 26 games better than the White Sox during that span. But according to the theory, the teams were equal.
The Twins were the opportunistic division winners, and the White Sox were the snakebitten losers.
This year, it's been the opposite story.
The Twins entered Tuesday at minus-1, and the White Sox were at plus-6 -- a seven-game difference.
Of course, the Twins don't see it that way. Manager Ron Gardenhire listened kindly to the Bill James theory and shook his head.
"All these numbers that people want to throw out there," he said, "and all this stuff that people want to try to bring into it doesn't mean a hill of beans. You know why? Because it's all done on the baseball field.
"The White Sox have gotten it done on the field -- not with numbers, not with anything else. They've gotten it done with wins and losses. They've won their one-run games, and that's the one thing that we haven't done."
The White Sox entered Tuesday with baseball's best record in one-run games at 26-14.
The Twins were 24-24 in one-run games after going an impressive 75-42 in one-run games during their three-year title run.
"Just take 10 of our one-run losses and flip those around," Gardenhire said. "That's a big difference in the standings."
Good teams find a way to win the close ones. It's interesting to note that the New York Yankees have overachieved in nine of the past 10 years, based on the Pythagorean winning percentage.
Their talent has been high-priced, but they've found players who know how to win.
The Twins seemed to lose their winning edge after they let go of Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman last offseason. Guzman has turned into a statistical disaster this year for the Washington Nationals, but he had a nose for winning with the Twins. He'd get on base and use his speed to either steal second base or go from first to third on a single.
He averaged 82 runs scored over his final five years in Minnesota. Entering Tuesday, the Twins shortstops had combined to score 44 runs this year.
The White Sox have learned how important each run is. This is why manager Ozzie Guillen sounded so surly after Monday's 4-2 loss to the Twins.
"We played all year doing the little things," Guillen was quoted as saying in the Daily Southtown, "and it shows when we don't."
The baseball standings never lie, except when they do, and this is how the game's stat-loving community can explain the Twins' downfall this year in the American League Central.
A closer look at the numbers suggests that the Chicago White Sox wouldn't be running away from the Twins if the teams hadn't completely reversed roles.
Basically, the White Sox have become the Old Twins, and the Twins have become the Old White Sox.
It gets technical here, but according to a time-tested theory developed by statistical guru Bill James, the Twins should have been seven games behind the White Sox entering Tuesday, instead of 14.
In other words, the Twins should have been within striking distance of winning their fourth consecutive division title instead of feeling completely buried.
In the late 1970s, James devised a formula to determine whether a team had overachieved or underachieved, based on its number of runs scored and runs allowed.
It's called the Pythagorean winning percentage.
Based on the formula, the Twins overachieved en route to their three consecutive division titles. In 2002, for example, their run totals suggested an 86-75 record, but they actually finished 94-67.
That's plus-8.
The Twins were plus-8, plus-5 and plus-5 those three years, for a total of plus-18.
Then there's the White Sox.
Over those same three years, Chicago was minus-5, minus-2 and minus-1, for a total of minus-8.
So that's a 26-game swing for the Twins over the three years.
It just so happens the Twins finished 26 games better than the White Sox during that span. But according to the theory, the teams were equal.
The Twins were the opportunistic division winners, and the White Sox were the snakebitten losers.
This year, it's been the opposite story.
The Twins entered Tuesday at minus-1, and the White Sox were at plus-6 -- a seven-game difference.
Of course, the Twins don't see it that way. Manager Ron Gardenhire listened kindly to the Bill James theory and shook his head.
"All these numbers that people want to throw out there," he said, "and all this stuff that people want to try to bring into it doesn't mean a hill of beans. You know why? Because it's all done on the baseball field.
"The White Sox have gotten it done on the field -- not with numbers, not with anything else. They've gotten it done with wins and losses. They've won their one-run games, and that's the one thing that we haven't done."
The White Sox entered Tuesday with baseball's best record in one-run games at 26-14.
The Twins were 24-24 in one-run games after going an impressive 75-42 in one-run games during their three-year title run.
"Just take 10 of our one-run losses and flip those around," Gardenhire said. "That's a big difference in the standings."
Good teams find a way to win the close ones. It's interesting to note that the New York Yankees have overachieved in nine of the past 10 years, based on the Pythagorean winning percentage.
Their talent has been high-priced, but they've found players who know how to win.
The Twins seemed to lose their winning edge after they let go of Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman last offseason. Guzman has turned into a statistical disaster this year for the Washington Nationals, but he had a nose for winning with the Twins. He'd get on base and use his speed to either steal second base or go from first to third on a single.
He averaged 82 runs scored over his final five years in Minnesota. Entering Tuesday, the Twins shortstops had combined to score 44 runs this year.
The White Sox have learned how important each run is. This is why manager Ozzie Guillen sounded so surly after Monday's 4-2 loss to the Twins.
"We played all year doing the little things," Guillen was quoted as saying in the Daily Southtown, "and it shows when we don't."