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Toy Cannon
10-10-2005, 04:51 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2005/news/story?id=2186452

It was Shaun Dean's lucky day at Minute Maid Park on Sunday.

The Houston Chronicle reported that Dean, of Porter, Texas, did more than catch the game-winning home-run ball hit by Chris Burke in the Houston Astros' dramatic 7-6 NLDS series-clinching victory over the Atlanta Braves, an 18-inning, six-hour epic.

Ten innings earlier, with the Astros down 6-1, Dean caught Lance Berkman's grand slam to the left-field seats to close the gap to 6-5.

"It came right at me," Dean, 25, told the Chronicle. "I just reached over and caught it."

On catching Burke's solo shot: "It was all just a blur ... [it] came more toward my father-in-law, and he just leaned over and I reached down and caught it."

After the Burke homer, "an usher came down and talked to me," Dean told the paper, saying that the Astros normally compensate fans who return special home-run balls to the players who hit them.

Dean, who caught the home run balls approximately three hours apart, reportedly said he probably would give the ball to Burke.

"Everyone was congratulating me, patting me on the back," Dean told the paper. "I had several people say I should buy a lottery ticket or go to Vegas."

The odds of catching two home run balls are not as tough as one would think.

Brad Efron, the chairman of the department of statistics at Stanford University, told ESPN.com that the odds in this particular case are in between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 5,000.

"Of the 43,000 people there, there are actually only a couple thousand people in the ballpark who can catch a homerun ball," Efron said. "So the odds are not as astronomical."

In Minute Maid Park, there are only 763 seats in left field. Considering that there are 3,903 seats in right field, only about 10 percent of the crowd is in position to catch a home run ball.

According to a team official, Dean will attend practice with the Astros in Houston on Friday and will give the balls back to the team.

PopTop
10-10-2005, 05:44 PM
In Minute Maid Park, there are only 763 seats in left field. Considering that there are 3,903 seats in right field, only about 10 percent of the crowd is in position to catch a home run ball. If you add the number of people who sit in the restaurant in right-center and the people standing on the gas pump balcony and the endless stream of folks walking/milling about on the concourse that runs from left to center, I'm betting it's closer to 15% of the crowd actually standing in home run territory.

To further my nit-picking about the math, two very important assumptions are being made by this Stanford stathead:

1) The assumption that two home runs will eevn be hit in the same game, and;

2) The assumption that all home run balls are hit into the stands where fans have a shot at winding up with the lucky souvenirs. Not one fan had a chance to catch Ausmus' 9th-inning homer, and as we've seen over the years at the stadium, a there are a lot of the long flies that hit off that left field facade and bounce back on the field, or clear the railroad tracks all-together.

This guy was one lucky SOB :cool: