Clemens' Future With the Astros Uncertain

[GaryMrMets]

Clemens' Future With the Astros Uncertain

By JAIME ARON
.c The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) - If Roger Clemens wants to pitch again, the Houston Astros would love to have him back.

As for Jeff Bagwell, the desire is definitely there. The question is whether his right shoulder can handle a 16th season, but he'll start rehabilitating Friday to find out.

The future of both superstars was on everyone's minds Wednesday night, practically as soon as the Astros' 1-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox ended the World Series in a sweep.

Clemens has said he was retiring after each of the last two seasons. This time, though, he's 43 with a strained hamstring and a back problem this season, his 22nd. Now that he's helped Houston get this far, about the only motivation left is winning the Series or maybe playing with his son, Koby, who is 18 and finished this season in Class A.

``Certainly we would love to have him back,'' team owner Drayton McLane said. ``I think he has just been so important to this franchise. He helped lift it to the next level.

``I'll certainly give him two or three days, then we'll talk about it. We were talking today about whether he was going to pitch Game 6 or Game 7.''

Clemens, who made $18 million this season, was dominant as ever, going 13-8 with a major league-best 1.87 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 211 1-3 innings. Had Houston scored more runs in his starts, he might've been a stronger contender for an eighth Cy Young Award.

``He's unbelievable,'' said close friend Andy Pettitte, whose decision to sign with Houston two offseasons ago helped lure Clemens out of retirement to begin with. ``His arm and his body is so strong, if anything ever aggravates him, it's his leg. He could probably pitch for another 10 years, as far as his arm goes.''

But will he pitch one more?

``If I knew, I wouldn't tell anybody anyway,'' Pettitte said, adding Clemens didn't even hint which way he's leaning.

Bagwell missed most of this season after having shoulder surgery. He's said he eventually needs to have it replaced, but he's hoping to squeeze out one more summer. He's under contract next season.

``I'm going to get my routine together and figure out what I need to do to get my shoulder stronger,'' he said. ``I've got to get going and find out what I got. I'm looking forward to it. I've got to do what I got to do to play baseball again.''

He doesn't want to be a token figure, either. In the playoffs, he was limited to pinch-hitting and being the designated hitter in two Series games played in the AL park.

``I plan to be back, to play baseball and be the first baseman for the Houston Astros next year,'' he said. ``I'm not thinking about anything but that right now.''

Asked about the chances of Houston having him and Clemens next year, Bagwell said: ``Do you have confirmation from Double-Deuce (Clemens' jersey number, 22) that he's coming back already? When you do, get me that memo. I don't know if you're going to get that one quite yet.''

10/27/05 05:59 EDT

Copyright 2003 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.

[lal4l]

Hope we get Clements back at least... AUSMUS A MUST

[Astro Annie]

You won't get Clemens back if Ausmus goes.

[Sandy]

What is this fascination with Ausmus. Offensively, he beat out about 3 NL backstops. So, he was ranked behind at least 10. By almost any measure, he's an offensive liability - even at a very weak position.

Defensively - he's above average - but in truth, catcher is a position which has (based on my research) perhaps the lowest actual impact on runs scored by the opposition. He's good at slowing the running game - but not great. (Yadier Molina was great - posting a .641 CS% this season.) But, in raw numbers - he was 12th in the NL in total runners thrown out. There were 7 NL catchers who threw out more runners AND had a better CS%. So, even defensively, he can be viewed above average primarily due to a lack of errors. Of course, 2005 was an exceptional season (only 1 error). He had 5 last year, and typically posts about 3. However, there was not a SINGLE catcher who had double digit errors - so simply put - error totals don't matter much.

Of course, most of the PERCEIVED value of Ausmus is in "handling the staff". Well, based on all my research, I've reached the conclusion that the majority of the belief that catchers impact ERA is pure myth. Good pitchers who strike guys out and don't walk batters have good ERAs REGARDLESS of who is catching.

Pudge in Texas - ERAs thru the roof. He goes to Florida - suddenly, incredible ERAs, then he goes to Detroit, and the ERAs go back up. In the end, ERAs are almost entirely due to pitching and defense - and catchers have almost no impact on defensive stats.

Moreover, the "logical" case, where a catcher CAN impact staff ERAs - is when you have a veteran catcher working with young pitchers. But, veteran pitchers, who KNOW how to pitch, don't let shaky catchers mess them up. Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt all had outstanding seasons. All are veteran pitchers at this point. ALL were posting better than 7 Ks per 9 innings.

Backe, Wandy, Astacio had ho-hum to awful seasons. The guys that Ausmus "should" have an impact on were NOT the reason Houston made the post-season.

Truthfully, the ONLY thing Ausmus has going for him is he stays healthy and he's relatively cheap. I don't have a problem keeping Ausmus as a cheap veteran with the understanding that you're punting the catcher position to horde money for other targets. But, sentimentality MUST have limits. Overindulging in sentimentality is precisely why Bagwell is scheduled to make $41 million over the next 3 seasons (ages 38-40), when "most" star players start seeing production declines and injuries increase after age 36.

And before the onslaught of "catcher intangible" posts floods in, let us remember that this year's WINNING World Series catcher was tossed aside because of intangibles. And the Cardinals dumped THEIR "gluey" veteran catcher last season to go with the completely unproven rookie. (IIRC, the Cards finished 2005 2nd to the Astros in team ERA, while San Fran finished in the bottom 3rd).

Final thought - in 2005 Ausmus "created" 44.8 total runs during the season. John Buck, the Royals rookie catcher (traded away in the Beltran deal, IIRC), generated 42.5. This ranked them 22nd and 23rd among all MLB catchers in total RCs created in 2005.

[Astro Annie]

It's not that I'm sentimental or believe that Ausmus has intangibles. The reason I said that is that it was reported that having Ausmus was a factor in signing Pettitte and Clemens. If the issue is whether Clemens comes back for another year and if Clemens wants Ausmus to catch him, then it follows that without Ausmus there will be no Clemens. Keeping Ausmus doesn't guarantee Clemens, though.

[Toy Cannon]

Of course, most of the PERCEIVED value of Ausmus is in "handling the staff". Well, based on all my research, I've reached the conclusion that the majority of the belief that catchers impact ERA is pure myth. Good pitchers who strike guys out and don't walk batters have good ERAs REGARDLESS of who is catching.
I'm not sure ERA is the angle pitchers think of when alluding to the importance of Ausmus. I think they look at the "comfort level". A catcher who can think along with them in pitch selection. Clemens said as much when he first signed with Houston and what Annie is refering to is Roger most likely won't return if he can't pitch to Ausmus. He doesn't have to think as much with Brad behind the plate and at this point in his career, sees no reason to change. Regardless of whether or not comfort level has any basis, I think most pitchers believe that it does.

I'm not a big fan of Ausmus and personally, I'd rather see someone with more pop in his bat. It all may be moot anyway as Brad lives in San Diego and the Padres could be looking for a catcher in the off season.

[PopTop]

Overindulging in sentimentality is precisely why Bagwell is scheduled to make $41 million over the next 3 seasons (ages 38-40), when "most" star players start seeing production declines and injuries increase after age 36.I'd love to know your source for these numbers. It's my understanding that 2006 is the last year of any guaranteed money on Bagwell's deal. He's set to make $17 million in 2006, with about $10 million of that deferred 2-3 years down the road. The team, not Bagwell, has an option on 2007 for $18 million, and anything after that would have to be worked out in a new deal. At least that's how I understand his contract to be set. Where are you finding numbers that project out any further than 2007, Sandy?

[Sandy]

PopTop,

The only source I currently have for contract info is: hardballdollars.com

[PopTop]

I think the money they're showing him due past 2006 is either the team option (2007. which is very doubtful) or money deferred from earlier in the contract, with some of that being part of the $10 million being deferred from his 2006 salary. Assuming Drayton isn't a total idiot, and assuming the deferred money was handled as is usually the case, the Astros won't realize the full burden of those dollars since they should have been earning at least some interest (plus tax benefits) on the portions deferred.

[barzilla]

I'm in agreement on both fronts. I've never been an Ausmus guy. Never. I loved him when he hit the home run in game four of the NLDS though. However, as people pointed out, Pettitte and Clemens both prefer throwing to Ausmus. If Clemens were guaranteed to come back or guaranteed to retire I would sign Molina or Hernandez and be done with it. Since Clemens' status is very much in doubt, Ausmus has to be the first option. Personally, I'm sick and tired of players having us by the balls. Bagwell is the chief guy in my mind on that front right now.

However, you cannot convince players that Ausmus is overrated. Hell, I've been trying to convince fans of that since we signed him in 1997 and I still haven't succeeded.

[Astro Annie]

I'm not a fan of Brad's either, but you're right about that hit. My other Ausmus highlight was the game in St. Louis where he hit a grannie, threw out three runners and then hit a solo shot to win the game in extras. But neither of those magically transforms him into a great player.

I wish Clemens would hurry up and announce. I'm reminded of the Beltran thing. Basically, the organization is waiting on him before doing anything else. And it shouldn't need to be that way.

[barzilla]

I just find it hilarious that Sandy and I have been making the same post for what seems like three years now. I heard that Pupura craves a better offensive catcher, but when the greatest pitcher of all-time tells you he won't come back unless Ausmus is his catcher your hands are tied. I'm rooting for a platoon between Ausmus and someone like Molina. Unfortunately, you would have to sell both on the idea of sharing time.

[Toy Cannon]

I'm rooting for a platoon between Ausmus and someone like Molina. Unfortunately, you would have to sell both on the idea of sharing time.
You're never going to sell a free agent on any kind of platoon situation. Never.

[PopTop]

I just find it hilarious that Sandy and I have been making the same post for what seems like three years now. I think we've all been saying the same thing for a few years. What's the quote from the late-great senator Everett Dirksen? My mind's as open as a 40-acre field, but that doesn't mean I'm going to change it. :laff: We're all a bunch of stubborn SOBs.

The bottom line on his will be the bottom line on this, i.e., $$$. There is a dollar value to cover salaries for Clemens and Ausmus that would be in the club's best interest, I believe. Not sure exactly what that is because I'm not sure what McLane's cap will wind up. My first notion is that Ausmus can't go up much from the $3 million he made in 2005 and Clemens might need to come down some from his $18 million or so which might be something for your fat chance files. If we are going to remain a sub $100-million payroll, then it's hard to think we can afford to pay those two players more than about $20 million together.

After filly-fartin' around last winter, this club --- Drayton and Tim --- have to perform smarter this season and not let any single player dictate team decisions. Clemens is a big-ticket item, but he can be dealt with last since I'm more than positive you can defer a ton of his money with personal services stuff.

Bagwell would be my first priority: Can he ever play the field 100+ games again in a season? If the answer is NO, then something must be worked out to get him to a club that has a DH in their batting lineup. What Bagwell can do for this club is the utmost concern, not Ausmus and Clemens.

[barzilla]

Pops,

Agreed. Bagwell is the biggest issue. I see a buyout in his future if the club feels he can't go.

As for the platoon, I would agree Dale except that some free agents actually want to win more than get money/play everyday. All you have to do is promise an everyday job in 2007.