National League Hot Stove grades

[Baseball Guru]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/john_donovan/01/19/nl.grades/index.html

NL EAST

ATLANTA BRAVES
Moving in/moving out: The Braves took a double hit when shortstop and leadoff man Rafael Furcal grabbed the Dodgers' big money, and closer Kyle Farnsworth took big bucks from the Yankees. The defending NL East champs also saw Julio Franco, a key bench player and half of their first-base platoon, sign with the rival Mets. Atlanta rebounded a bit by trading prospect Andy Marte to the Red Sox for shortstop Edgar Renteria, and bolstered their bullpen somewhat by trading catcher Johnny Estrada to the Diamondbacks for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal. Strangely for the Braves, though, they've been more reactive than proactive.

Lowdown: Second baseman Marcus Giles is penciled in at leadoff right now, and the Braves are still looking for a closer. Chris Reitsma is about all they have. Renteria should return to his All-Star form in the NL. The rest of the team is largely intact, including a solid rotation, a lot of good, young position players and some outstanding veterans such as Giles, Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones. That all bodes well for a run at a 15th straight division title. But as far as getting better, the Braves didn't.

GRADE: Still shopping, still trying to catch up -- C.

FLORIDA MARLINS
Moving in/moving out: Faced with an ownership mandate to slash payroll, the Marlins tore down a deep and contending team by trading away tons of talent. Gone are first baseman Carlos Delgado (Mets), pitcher Josh Beckett (Red Sox), infielder Mike Lowell (Red Sox), catcher Paul Lo Duca (Mets), center fielder Juan Pierre (Cubs) and second baseman Luis Castillo (Twins). Free agents Jeff Conine (Orioles), A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), Todd Jones (Tigers) and Juan Encarnacion (Cardinals) left, too.

Lowdown: The franchise's two youngest and best stars, pitcher Dontrelle Willis and now-third baseman Miguel Cabrera, are about all that remains. They'll be joined by a load of possibly talented but definitely untested prospects that the Marlins got in all those trades. The Marlins signed Joe Borowski to close, and Pokey Reese to play second base, but for the most part, you're going to need a scorecard to figure out who these guys are.

GRADE: Gutted, just like the bosses wanted -- B.

NEW YORK METS
Moving in/moving out: No NL team benefitted more from the Marlins' selloff than the Mets, who traded for first baseman Carlos Delgado and catcher Paul Lo Duca, both of them All-Stars who plug gaping holes. Mets GM Omar Minaya also landed the closer he needed, signing free-agent lefty Billy Wagner (four years, $43 million), cleared some salary by trading right fielder Mike Cameron to the Padres for new right fielder Xavier Nady, and signed solid bench players in Julio Franco and Jose Valentin. A late trade sending surprisingly good starter Jae Seo to the Dodgers in exchange for righty relievers Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll added depth to the bullpen.

Lowdown: Minaya didn't get Manny Ramirez after all that talking, but that is about the only significant player the Mets wanted who wasn't lured to Queens. With a blockbuster offseason, every part of this team is better, with the possible exception of the starting pitching depth now that Seo is gone. The shortcomings at catcher and first base have been filled wonderfully, the bullpen problems are addressed, and the bench is better. If the Mets stay relatively healthy and their creaky rotation doesn't fall apart, the Braves will face their toughest test in more than a decade.

GRADE: Money, and good trades, pay off -- A.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Moving in/moving out: New GM Pat Gillick completed his biggest offseason task when he traded first baseman Jim Thome to the White Sox for center fielder Aaron Rowand. Gillick couldn't talk closer Billy Wagner into staying, so the Phils settled instead on former Yankees setup man Tom Gordon. The Phils also traded starter Vicente Padilla, signed starter Ryan Franklin and versatile infielder Abraham Nunez, and brought in a few bullpen arms in various trades and signings. They also bought a backup catcher.

Lowdown: The Phils spent much of the winter dangling right fielder Bobby Abreu, only to find no takers, and dabbling in other blockbuster talks, only to come up empty. They lost out on Wagner, the closer they really wanted, and are still hurting in the bullpen. They also could have used more help in the rotation (Philly starters had a 4.20 ERA in '05, ninth in the NL). The Thome trade was good, though, because it filled a trouble spot in center, cleared up the first base problem, and helped ease the payroll.

GRADE: Not much better, but maybe better off -- C.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Moving in/moving out: Indefatigable GM Jim Bowden pulled off a whopper of a trade for a slugger: Texas second baseman Alfonso Soriano. But it seems that the Nationals will have to drag him kicking and screaming into the outfield. The Nats are now without outfielders Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge (both went to the Rangers for Soriano), and free-agent Preston Wilson, who signed with Houston. Contenders for much of 2005 before finishing .500, the Nats lost a couple of free-agent starters, too, in Esteban Loaiza and Hector Carrasco. Bowden tried to offset that in an early trade for San Diego's Brian Lawrence and the later signing of free-agent Ramon Ortiz. The Nationals will also have a newcomer at third (Vinny Castilla was traded to the Padres for Lawrence), new infield backup, and a new lefty out of the bullpen: veteran Mike Stanton.

Lowdown: The lowest-scoring team in baseball needed punch. Bowden thinks he has it in Soriano, though his numbers undoubtedly will drop from what they were in Texas due to the expanse of RFK Stadium. Soriano, at least, will contribute some offense along with Nick Johnson, Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro. But in losing Loaiza and Carrasco, the Nats' starters took a step back from '05, when they were seventh in the NL with a 4.03 ERA.

GRADE: Lots of motion, not a lot of movement -- D.

[Baseball Guru]

NL CENTRAL

CHICAGO CUBS
Moving in/moving out: An early push for free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal went for naught (he signed with the Dodgers), but GM Jim Hendry, under the gun after a 79-83 season, recovered nicely. He swapped for Florida's Juan Pierre, who will lead off and play center, both troublesome spots last year, and fortified his bullpen -- another scary spot -- with two better-than-average free-agent signings: lefty Scott Eyre (from the Giants) and righty Bobby Howry (Indians). The Cubs spent $23 million to lock those two up for the next three years. The other noteworthy signing was free-agent right fielder Jacque Jones (Minnesota), who won't blast as many homers as the departed Jeromy Burnitz but offers better defense and more on the basepaths.

Lowdown: The restructured and now possibly dominant bullpen should help prop up the always-touchy rotation. The biggest non-pitching question remains at shortstop, where veteran Neifi Perez and 23-year-old Ronny Cedeno will try to do what the Cubs wanted Furcal to do. Still, when the smoke clears, this offseason will be judged on how well the hard-working Pierre does. He improves the defense and, if he's at top form, he'll provide many more RBI opportunities for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.

GRADE: Improved in field, in the 'pen and at the plate -- B.

CINCINNATI REDS
Moving in/moving out: Pitching was Priority No. 1 for the Reds, and they addressed it -- some -- by dealing away popular first baseman Sean Casey to the Pirates for lefty starter Dave Williams. That wasn't the extent of their moves this winter, but it's pretty close. Adam Dunn now will man first base, leaving the outfield to Austin Kearns, Ken Griffey Jr. and Wily Mo Pena. Infielder Rich Aurilia re-signed, too, and the Reds traded for light-hitting utility man Tony Womack, which should give them some options off the bench. Lefty reliever Chris Hammond signed up. But, so far, there aren't a lot of new faces in Cincinnati.

Lowdown: One new starting pitcher -- and a lower-rung one at that -- won't make a lot of difference for the Reds, who should have learned that last season with Eric Milton. Like a lot of teams, the Reds are leaning on their youngsters (Kearns, Pena, Dunn, shortstop Felipe Lopez, versatile Ryan Freel) and the occasional vet (Griffey, Aurilia) to get them through. But the pitching -- this team has no closer -- is just not there.

GRADE: Too quiet to do any good -- D.

HOUSTON ASTROS
Moving in/moving out: Handcuffed by a huge payroll tied up in a few players, the Astros haven't been able to do a lot. The NL champs re-signed catcher Brad Ausmus, a must, along with outfielder Orlando Palmeiro and pitcher Russ Springer. They signed Preston Wilson, who adds to a glut of outfielders. But the Astros will figure out who plays where later. The uncertainty of first baseman Jeff Bagwell's return makes the need for more power in the lineup (the Astros hit .203 in the World Series against the White Sox) more crucial.

Lowdown: This is, in large part, the same team that worked its way into the World Series, with one huge exception: Roger Clemens. No one yet knows whether the ace will return in '06, and that (along with the inflated payroll) has stymied the Astros. Still, the pitching's good enough to compete, and Wilson is a slight upgrade, offensively, for a team that needs all the pop it can find.

GRADE: Did what they could to get better -- C.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Moving in/moving out: A surprising .500 team in '05, this is a critical year for the Brewers. Their biggest move was a necessary one: trading first baseman Lyle Overbay to make room for Prince Fielder. GM Doug Melvin made it a good deal, getting starter Dave Bush, outfielder Gabe Gross and pitcher Zach Jackson, a former first rounder, from the Blue Jays. The Brewers and Jays also traded to get third baseman Corey Koskie to Milwaukee (for righty Brian Wolfe), and Melvin sent pitcher Wes Obermueller to Atlanta to get back the Brewers' former closer, Dan Kolb. The bullpen, though, is still a soft spot.

Lowdown: After years of ineptitude, the Brewers are seeing their effort at developing talent begin to pay off. With players like Fielder, second baseman Rickie Weeks and shortstop J.J. Hardy, the Brewers have a lot of potential to go with outfielders Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins and, now, third baseman Koskie. The team's starters, sixth in the NL with a 4.02 ERA last year, remain largely intact, and now Bush joins them. The big question? The bullpen, which could make or break the Brewers.

GRADE: Slightly better than a .500 offseason -- C.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Moving in/moving out: GM Dave Littlefield signed a slugger he needed -- Cubs free agent Jeromy Burnitz -- capping a very good run for the Pirates. The Bucs also found a useful hitter and great clubhouse guy in first baseman Sean Casey (who came in a trade with the Reds for lefty starter Dave Williams). Ditto for third baseman Joe Randa (a free-agent from San Diego). They also bought reliever Roberto Hernandez (2.58 ERA in 67 appearances for the Mets in '05) and filled out the bullpen. Their closer (Mike Gonzalez) is untested, and their rotation is pretty young. But the Pirates are looking up.

Lowdown: Littlefield would like a little more power from his corner infield spots, but Randa and Casey are respectable at getting on base, at least. The Pirates will rely on the revamped lineup and their young, talented rotation (Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Kip Wells, Paul Maholm) to get them to .500 or better, somewhere they haven't been since 1992.

GRADE: Safe and steady is starting to pay off -- B.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Moving in/moving out: This has been a tumultuous offseason for the reigning NL Central champs. The Cardinals lost most of their outfield when Reggie Sanders signed with Kansas City and Larry Walker retired. Solid second baseman Mark Grudzielanek also left (K.C.) and third baseman Abraham Nunez signed with Philadelphia. Starter Matt Morris (101-62 in eight years with the Cardinals) took off to San Francisco for a three-year, $27 million deal. The Cards also traded lefty reliever Ray King to the Rockies and saw reliever Julian Tavarez sign a two-year deal with Boston. Reliever Cal Eldred, who appeared in 145 games in the past three years for the Cards, retired.

Lowdown: GM Walt Jocketty isn't one to stand still for all that. Though the Cardinals lost out on a lot of free agents, they did find a decent hitter and a replacement outfielder in Juan Encarnacion, and landed capable outfielder Larry Bigbie from the Rockies in the trade for King. Wayward free-agent starter Sidney Ponson was a relatively cheap gamble at $1 million for this year, and the Cards tried to replenish the bullpen with former Mets closer Braden Looper and former Oakland lefty Ricardo Rincon. Free-agent pickup Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles (also from Colorado in the King deal) will probably compete for the starting job at second base. That's a lot of movement, and not all of it is an improvement. But with solid starting pitching, a good closer in Jason Isringhausen, third baseman Scott Rolen healthy again, and guys like Jim Edmonds and MVP Albert Pujols still hanging around, the Cards will hope it's enough.

GRADE: Stumble, step up, scramble, start again -- C.

[Baseball Guru]

NL WEST

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Moving in/moving out: Continuing their climb from the 111-loss abyss of 2004, the Diamondbacks had tons of work to do and came out ... well, it's hard to say. They dealt disappointing starter Javier Vazquez to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez, a reliever, and a stud center-field prospect. They swapped big-swinging third baseman Troy Glaus to the Blue Jays for starter Miguel Batista and Gold Glove second baseman Orlando Hudson. They picked up catcher Johnny Estrada in a trade with Atlanta. And they signed a starting center fielder in Eric Byrnes. All of them fill holes. But ...

Lowdown: It's very possible that Hernandez and Batista will be worse than Vazquez and Shawn Estes (who signed with the Padres). The two new D'backs certainly are older. Glaus' bat -- no getting around this -- will be missed. Expecting youngsters like Chad Trady and first baseman Conor Jackson to immediately pick up the slack is asking too much. But the beauty in these deals, in Arizona's eyes, is in guys like Hudson, who's just entering his prime, and that young stud center fielder, Chris Young, who has shown great power in the minors. Estrada, too, is a good find if he ever shakes off the collision he had last year with the Angels' Darin Erstad. The D'backs still have problems in the bullpen, and their rotation could be très shaky (Brandon Webb notwithstanding). But there's enough young talent (Tracy, Jackson and others) and veteran know-how (Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green) to keep things interesting.

GRADE: Maybe better for the future, but not now -- C.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Moving in/moving out: The young Rockies went through major growing pains during a 95-loss season in '05, and Colorado's not about to abandon its basic plan now. Still, the Rocks added some experience in free-agent closer Jose Mesa, re-signed starter Byung-Hyun Kim, and added to their bullpen savvy by re-signing Mike DeJean and trading for St. Louis lefty Ray King. They also traded for a catcher, landing the Mariners' Yorvit Torrealba. What's that? Not excited about any of those guys?

Lowdown: Well, those guys are all useful players, and all are needed, but the Rockies will still ride their youngsters (third baseman Garrett Atkins, shortstop Clint Barmes, right fielder Brad Hawpe, outfielder Matt Holliday) and stumble because of a mostly lightweight rotation in a pitchers' purgatory. That's just life, and near-death experiences, in Coors Field.

GRADE: Youth on the Rocks in Colorado -- C

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Moving in/moving out: Losing a manager and a GM in the span of a month put the Dodgers -- terrible in '05 with 91 losses -- way behind. But once GM Ned Colletti was pried away from the Giants, he went to work and stole former Braves shortstop Rafael Furcal (the Cubs thought they had him), hired new manager Grady Little, and generally did not stop for weeks at a time. The Dodgers probably missed on as many players as they got -- Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez and several big-name pitchers turned them down -- but they did sign Nomar Garciaparra to play first base, Bill Mueller to play third, and Kenny Lofton to play center. Colletti also calmed the clubhouse by sending Milton Bradley to the A's. He added two starters by trading for the Mets' Jae Seo and signing Giants free agent Brett Tomko. The bullpen was re-stocked with closer Danys Baez and reliever Lance Carter from Tampa Bay. All in all, an incredible workout for a team that started so far behind.

Lowdown: Whether the Dodgers are better in '06 depends largely on the health of J.D. Drew, Jayson Werth and newcomer Garciaparra. But Furcal helps, as does Mueller, while Seo and Tomko at least make up for the free-agent loss of Jeff Weaver. The whole place should be much more upbeat, too.

GRADE: A late start, a really strong finish -- B

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Moving in/moving out: The NL West champs (82-80) had next to no hitting in '05, so GM Kevin Towers went on a sign-and-swap frenzy. Towers made sure the Padres kept what good they had by re-signing on-base machine Brian Giles. Then he solidified the strongest part of a pretty good bullpen, getting closer Trevor Hoffman, a San Diego favorite, to re-up. Beyond that, the Padres' moves were truly dizzying. A big breath now ... They dumped uninspiring third baseman Sean Burroughs on the Devil Rays in exchange for uninspired pitcher Dewon Brazelton, then upgraded their offense at third by trading pitcher Brian Lawrence to the Nationals for sometime-slugger Vinny Castilla. They shored up their outfield defense, and added some offense, by trading Xavier Nady for the Mets' Mike Cameron. They lost some offense, though, by trading second baseman Mark Loretta to the Red Sox for catcher Doug Mirabelli, though that was necessary with the loss of free-agent catcher Ramon Hernandez (who signed with Baltimore). Starter Adam Eaton and bullpen stalwart Akinori Otsuka were traded to the Rangers for starter Chris Young and backup outfielder Terrmel Sledge.

Lowdown: The rotation, the best part of the team in '05, may be a little shakier without Eaton and Lawrence. Newcomers Young and free-agent pickup Shawn Estes (from Arizona) aren't quite their equals. The previously strong bullpen will be without Otsuka, Chris Hammond and Rudy Seanez, but with Hoffman bearing down on the all-time saves record, it will be good enough.The rotation, led by Jake Peavy, will be pretty good, too. The weak offense has improved, and the defense, a key part of this team in spacious Petco Park, is better with Castilla and Cameron.

GRADE: Getting over that barely .500 hump a must -- B.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Moving in/moving out: You-know-who should be back in 2006, if the Giants are lucky, for 120 or 130 games. That should automatically give a huge boost to the offense. Barry Bonds' return is critical because, for the most part, this has been a sleepy offseason in San Francisco. The starting pitching got a shot in the arm with the signing of righty Matt Morris (three years, $27 million). Longtime starter Kirk Rueter is gone (released last August) and Brett Tomko signed with the Dodgers. The bullpen is a little iffy, too. A trade for Baltimore's Steve Kline (for righty LaTroy Hawkins) and the signing of Tim Worrell looks good, but the loss of steady lefty Scott Eyre (Cubs) was a big blow. Veteran first baseman J.T. Snow, who played in nearly 1,200 games for the Giants over the past nine years, has moved on to the Red Sox, clearing the way for young Lance Niekro.

Lowdown: The Giants should be much improved after a 75-87 showing, but it won't be because of any moves they've made this winter, the landing of Morris aside. The Giants will be better because of the return of Bonds (assuming he's healthy), a full season from closer Armando Benitez (if he's healthy, too) and the improvement of young pitchers Noah Lowry, Matt Cain and Brad Hennessey. If all those things go right, that should be enough to put the Giants in the middle of the division race.

GRADE: Just getting healthy in a quiet offseason -- C.

[Timberwolf]

Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Marlins get high marks.

I put Marlins as high marks simply because Beinfest did a good job getting what he can get in return for the fire sale trades.

Low marks? Cardinals simply since they couldn't keep their players like Reggie Sanders.

[Tigers#1]

I think it's funny how every year teams like Atlanta, Houston, San Francisco and Oakland get terrible offseason grades for having to cut payroll, but every year they're at the top of the standings over the teams who get much better grades.

[Timberwolf]

Atlanta will always be the team to beat in the NL East as long as Cox and Schuerholz run the team.

Houston is going to be good. They will either win the NL Central or the Wild-Card.

I thought Oakland made decent moves, but it may not be enough to catch the Angels.

Giants are an old team.

[Baseball Guru]

I think Houston will be ok but I still believe that the Cards are the team to beat in the Central.. Yes they lost Gruddy, Sanders and Morris but they got Encarnacion, Aaron Miel , Junior Spivey, Pnson for real cheap and Looper to help the pen... This is an awfully good Cardinal team...

Giants are an old team but still a good one in a weak division.. I wouldn't count them out...

[Timberwolf]

Look out for the Brew Crew. I think this is their year. Their offense is very good. Their pitching is underrated. Doug Melvin has done a very good job assembling this team since he was hired. I am going with the Brewers to win the wild-card and Astros to wi nthe division.

Encarnacio is way too inconsistent. Miles and Spivey ae solid. Ponson stinks. Looper is a disaster even as a setup guy. I just think the Brewers are better.

[Eva]

Brewers still have question marks in the bullpen. They do have a solid closer in Turnbow, but what else they got beyond that? Kolb? Kolb look like a one year wonder at this point. Outside of that, the Brewers have not made many moves to improve that bullpen, which probably the biggest question mark coming into this off-season.

Let's not over-estimate the Brewers until they actually go out there and prove they are contender. While I do like the young talent the Brewers are bring to the table and that very solid starting rotation they have. Not going to jump the gun on them just yet. Fielder, Weeks and Hardy still have a lot to prove coming into this season. The starting rotation need to be as solid as they were last year.

Cardinals? They still have Mulder and Carpenter. They dominated this league without a dominate Carpenter on their team and without Mulder even being there at all. So, the Cardinals should not be sold short. Cardinals lose were not as big as I originally thought.

Sanders? Doesn't he play like 90-100 games a year. We all knew Walker was declining. A decent to moderate replacement was found for all them. The biggest lost was Morris and we know that Suppan and Marquis aren't the greatest pitchers around, but with that offense, they get the job done and get the win for the team. Also, we don't know what to expect from Anthony Reyes yet. El Fatso Ponson the number 6 starter, Reyes has the fifth spot.

The biggest hit the Cardinals took was the bullpen. We'll see how it does this season, but Izzy still there, so let's not forget that. Looper not the greatest, but is King or Tavaraz better than him? If they were, not by much. The Cardinals should not have major issues with the pen.

The Cardinals are still the favor. You can't the Astros over them since the Astros themselves have done nothing much this off-season, except lose Clemens. The Brewers are still a young and unproven team at this point. Hey, don't get me wrong, I think the Brewers could be a sleeper, but not going to take them as the favorites of this division until they prove something more.

[Timberwolf]

How about Julio Santana? He is their setup guy. Matt Wise is your seventh inning guy. Brewers got some options in the pen. Their pen was good last year, Eva.

I expect their young players to produce this season. They are ready to play in the majors. I really think the Brew Crew got something special going. I know people in Wisconsin are already thinking playoffs. I expect the Brewers not only to go to the playoffs, but go to the NLCS.

The pitching will be good.

[Baseball Guru]

Julio Santana?? Are you kidding me? What has he done in the majors, except post a 5.something era.. He is a lousy set-up man... I like Wise but they are nothing special.. That division is too tough IMO and I'd expect them to finish 3rd or 4th around .500...

[Timberwolf]

I am pretty sure Santana had a good year last year. I was impressed with his stuff against the Twins in the six meetings last season. The guy can throw strikes.

I really think that they will do better.

Plus the Brewers got money to spend so they can always make moves this season.

[Eva]

Six games? There's a 162 games a season. You're base Santana being good based on six games? That's a very bad way to form an opinion on how good the player is and could be. If you view him during a season span, then make more sense, but six games? :confused:

The Brewers need to gain a bit more pop in their line-up, which I think will happen if those rookies I mention do much better. Lee there's only legit power threat in that line-up. Everybody else is moderate to medicore level hitters, excluding Clark, who came through as a very good lead-off man last season. The line-up is still, only due to being young. Fielder, Weeks and Hardy will come around, maybe this year, but expecting much from all three in their 2 full season in MLB?

Brewers bullpen still questionable. Kolb might be able to regain his old form, but that's yet to be seen.

They could spend money, but why divert off the path there team on. This team is at least one year away from contend for sure.

[Chisox73]

Check out Julio Santana's career numbers here. (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=santaju01)

[Chisox73]

Last year against Minnesota,Julio Santana pitched in 3 games pitched 3.1 innings total and had a 2.70 ERA.He walked 3 and struck out 4 in those 3 appearances.

[Baseball Guru]

Well at least he was good vs the Twins;)

The rest of the year he wasn't all that great posting a 4.50 era... Ok these days for a #4 or #5 starter but I dont think you want your set-up man having #'s like that..

Why didnt he play in 2003-2004? Injury?