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Rough in the Diamondbacks
Spring Training Home: Tucson Electric Park – Tucson, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 2 at White Sox
Season one under new manager Bob Melvin was a success, as the Diamondbacks improved from a major league-worst 51-111 in 2004 to 77-85 in 2005. They finished second in the ultra-weak NL West and maintained playoff hopes until the final week of the season. The desert continued to be flush with optimism this offseason, but much of the rosy outlook is directed at 2008, rather than 2006. The Diamondbacks continue to be a transition between the glory years of the early decade and the potential greatness that is still learning to walk in the minors. Much of their winter dealing was made with this evolution in mind, and we beginning by recounting those moves.
Notable offseason transactions
The Diamondbacks' overhaul began in the front office, when they hired Josh Byrnes to be their general manager. The former Red Sox assistant general manager replaced interim option Bob Gebhard, who was filling in for the departed Joe Garagiola Jr.
The Byrnes era began with three major trades in December. Early in the month, the Diamondbacks acquired catcher Johnny Estrada from the Braves in exchange for relief pitchers Oscar Villarreal and Lance Cormier. A couple weeks later and per the starting hurler's own request, the club shipped Javier Vazquez and cash to the White Sox in exchange for starting pitcher Orlando Hernandez, reliever Luis Vizcaino, and outfielder prospect Chris Young. Last and certainly not least, the Diamondbacks sent third baseman Troy Glaus and shortstop prospect Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays in exchange for pitcher Miguel Batista and second baseman Orlando Hudson.
Other than those three notable swaps, the Diamondbacks made minor tweaks to their roster. They added outfielder Eric Byrnes, second baseman Daimon Easley, and reliever Jason Grimsley to the mix. A bushel of veterans were allowed to walk and open up spots for younger players, including shortstop Royce Clayton, catcher Kelly Stinnett, outfielder Quinton McCracken, starting pitcher Shawn Estes, and relievers Tim Worrell, Buddy Groom, and Kerry Ligtenberg.
Lastly, we can't wrap up this area without noting the loss of a wonderful stadium name. Bank One Ballpark – a.k.a. "The BOB" – shed its endearing label this winter and is now known as Chase Field. Apparently the "MasterCard Pool Pavilion" in right-center field has retained its title, though.
Projected starters
C: Johnny Estrada
1B: Conor Jackson
2B: Orlando Hudson
SS: Craig Counsell
3B: Chad Tracy
LF: Luis Gonzalez
CF: Eric Byrnes
RF: Shawn Green
SP: Brandon Webb
SP: Russ Ortiz
SP: Orlando Hernandez
SP: Miguel Batista
SP: Claudio Vargas/Brad Halsey
CL: Jose Valverde
What to watch
Jackson is the biggest fantasy story for a number of reasons. The Diamondbacks have publicly committed to giving him every-day work, and the right-handed hitter is currently slated to hit fifth (behind lefties Tracy and Green and ahead of lefty Gonzalez). However, the presence of 30-homer veteran Tony Clark and our recollection of their reluctance in 2003 to simply hand the job to rookie Lyle Overbay serve as warning signs. We need to see the stats and reviews of Jackson this spring before we feel secure in labeling him as a major ROY candidate, rather than a lower-tier first baseman.
That leads us into the question of how this overall offense will perform. The Diamondbacks scored a major league-low 615 runs in 2004 but improved to 696 runs (23rd) last season. Numerous factors went into that improvement, and one was certainly Glaus, who led the team in homers (37) and RBI (97). Estrada, Byrnes and Hudson are all decent batsmen and Jackson is a promising prospect, but we're not sure the Diamondbacks can make up for the loss of the powerful third baseman. If Jackson looks solid this spring and if Estrada and Byrnes appear lined up for bounceback seasons, this lineup could be decent. If not, Melvin's offense could regress.
We listed Vargas and Halsey as the leading candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation, but the Diamondbacks will also allow Mike Gosling and Dustin Nippert to fight for that job. Nippert is the most intriguing name in that mix, as he captured the Double-A Southern League ERA title in 2005 with a 2.38 mark. Chances are that the franchise will let the 6-7 right-hander earn a little more minor league seasoning, but we're interested to see how he fares this spring.
The secondary reason for watching those four fifth-spot hurlers is that we hold low opinions of Ortiz, Hernandez and Batista. The veteran trio needs to show us a lot this spring if (a) they are going to convince anyone that they can hold off the younger arms into the season and (b) if we're to advocate any of them for fantasy roster spots.
Valverde was outstanding from July through the end of the 2005 season, and he's locked down the closer's job. We have reservations about him since he's failed us in the past, but he feels like a rock compared to the rest of the bullpen. Diamondbacks relievers ranked last in the NL with a 5.50 ERA last season, and their best setup man (Worrell) is no longer with the club. Relievers like Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Greg Aquino, Vizcaino, and Grimsley need to show us something this spring if we're to rank Valverde anywhere above the bottom rung of fantasy closers.
Lastly, desert dwellers will want to take a sneak peek at shortstop Stephen Drew and outfielders Carlos Quentin and Young this spring. All three are exciting prospects who feel less than a year away from taking over spots in the Diamondbacks' lineup. They'll begin 2006 in the minors, but any or all could be later-season fantasy pick-ups and it never hurts to get an early look at young talent.
Peach Buzz
Spring Training Home: Cracker Jack Stadium – Lake Buena Vista, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 at Dodgers
Another year, another pennant, another early exit from the postseason. Thanks to a dominant 53-28 home record, the Braves won their 14th straight division crown in 2005, but for the sixth consecutive season, they were unable to advance past the first round of the playoffs. Bobby Cox's club appeared to lose more talent than they gained this offseason, and they'll enter spring training with some serious questions. However, youngsters have stepped up in the past for the Braves, and fantasy owners will find a few new, interesting names to go along with the usual trio of Jones, Jones and Smoltz.
Notable offseason transactions
The Braves winter tale makes the most sense if we begin with the one who got away. Shortstop Rafael Furcal ended his decade-long run in the system by inking a three-year, $39 million deal with the Dodgers. As a response, the Braves sent elite third base prospect Andy Marte to the Red Sox in exchange for shortstop Edgar Renteria.
One day prior to that transaction, the Braves made two other deals. First, they shipped disappointing reliever Dan Kolb back to Milwaukee in exchange for pitcher Wes Obermueller. Second, the Braves acquired relievers Oscar Villarreal and Lance Cormier from the Diamondbacks for catcher Johnny Estrada, a 2004 All-Star. Two weeks later, they also dealt minor league hurler Rico Rodriguez to the Royals for outfielder Matt Diaz.
Outside of those trades, the positive side of the ledger is fairly barren. Catcher Todd Pratt (Phillies) and relievers Jeff Bennett and Brad Baker (Padres) were the only other notable additions. Other players who left Atlanta include closer Kyle Farnsworth, first baseman Julio Franco, outfielder Todd Hollandworth, and relievers Tom Martin and Jim Brower.
Lest we forget, the Braves also lost a staple of their glory years. Pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who had been with the franchise since 1979, joined long-time buddy Sam Perlozzo in Baltimore. The Braves tabbed former major league hurler Roger McDowell, who had been the pitching coach at Triple-A Las Vegas (Dodgers), for the job. We anticipate much less gum-chewing and bench-rocking in Atlanta this season.
Projected starters
C: Brian McCann
1B: Adam LaRoche
2B: Marcus Giles
SS: Edgar Renteria
3B: Chipper Jones
LF: Ryan Langerhans/Kelly Johnson
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Jeff Francoeur
SP: John Smoltz
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Horacio Ramirez
SP: John Thomson
SP: Jorge Sosa
CL: Chris Reitsma
What to watch
McCann, Langerhans, Johnson and Francoeur all jumped up from the minors in 2005, which means that fantasy owners are at least vaguely familiar with all the names in the lineup. However, spring training will give us another chance to evaluate how good these youngsters may or may not be. Francoeur, 22, and McCann, 21, both have the potential to be top-tier fantasy players, but are they ready for major leaps? Langerhans, 24, and Johnson, 23, will be trying to win the starting left field job and prove that they can be more consistent offensively than they each were in 2005.
Renteria returns to the National League after an inconsistent season with the Red Sox, and he's filling some big shoes at shortstop. Edgar has long been a solid fantasy shortstop, but spring training will help tip us off as to what type of player he'll be in 2006. Will the Braves ask him to hit leadoff and steal 30 bases? Or will he bat down in the order and drive in runs? And if Renteria isn't batting first, will Giles move up a spot to fill Furcal's old role?
Andruw Jones led the majors with 10 homers last spring, and the effort hinted at the monstrous regular campaign that followed. We'll be looking for a similarly strong performance this preseason, when Andruw will also be playing in the World Baseball Classic. If Jones struggles, some might whisper that his 51-homer season was a fluke.
With Mike Hampton recovering from Tommy John surgery, Sosa is penciled into the fifth spot in the rotation. He earned it by going 10-3 with a 2.62 ERA over 20 starts in 2005, and this spring will go a long way towards settling Jorge's fantasy value. If he struggles, promising youngsters Kyle Davies, Chuck James, or Anthony Lerew could sneak into the rotation.
As one might guess from looking at the lineup above, closer is the major question. Farnworth (10 saves), Kolb (11), and Reitsma (15) split the role in 2005, and Reitsma is the slight leader heading into spring training. He'll have company, though. Villarreal has thrown well in the Mexican Winger League and is being mentioned as a candidate. Last year's first-round pick, Joey Devine, is healthy and the closer of the future, but the Braves are not quite ready to hand him the job. Blaine Boyer and Brad Baker also have closer-like stuff but don't appear ready for such a pressure-packed role. Lastly, it's also not unfathomable that the Braves open up the fifth spot in the rotation and move Sosa back to the bullpen as a closer.
Bird Watching
Spring Training Home: Ft. Lauderdale Stadium - Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Marlins
Had the 2005 season ended in mid-June, this year's outlook would've been much brighter for the Orioles. On June 3, they sat on top of arguably baseball's toughest division, but a string of incidents subsequently unfolded that sent their promising start into a downward spiral, resulting in a bipolar season. There were the off-the-field problems of pitcher Sidney Ponson, the vehement denial of performance-enhancing substance use by first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, and the gruesome elbow injury that ended All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts' season. The Orioles face an uphill battle in their attempt to avoid their eighth fourth-place finish in nine seasons. They'll rely on an established core of players and some veteran additions to be competitive in the cutthroat AL East.
Notable offseason transactions
For the second season in a row, the Orioles were courting high-profile players (A.J. Burnett and Paul Konerko) and like almost every other year, those free agents went elsewhere. That didn't stop them from making arguably their most notable addition in October, when they signed pitching coach Leo Mazzone to a three-year contract. Mazzone is close friends with Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo, and his reputation for molding young arms into productive pitchers is without question. During his 15-year tenure as the Braves pitching coach, Mazzone had a hand in four ERA titles, six Cy Young Awards, and nine 20-game winners. For those keeping track at home, the Orioles had a big goose egg in all three departments during that same 15-year stretch.
If you are looking for an explanation for why the Orioles signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a four-year deal this offseason, you need only look at the decline of Javy Lopez. While Lopez should rebound slightly, the two months missed with a wrist injury is cause for concern, not to mention his lowest average and home run total in three years and fewest RBI in six seasons. That said, Lopez isn't the backstop saddled with DL stints in each of the last two seasons, as that honor goes to Hernandez. Between the two of them, they have spent 150 days on the disabled list over the past two seasons.
The return to Baltimore makes it the third team that Jeff Conine has played for twice during his 14-year career. Needless to say he likes re-runs. Conine is not the player he once was, but his .374 on-base percentage last year shows he's still capable of contributing.
The Orioles were looking for some power in the outfield, and they thought they addressed the issue when Jeromy Burnitz allegedly agreed to a contract only to back out and sign with the Pirates. The addition of Corey Patterson fell a bit off target considering he's topped 14 long balls only once in his six-year career, but it was what the Orioles were left with. Baseball America ranked Patterson as the Cubs top prospect from 1999-2001 and after the 2004 season it looked as though we could have a 30-30 player on our hands. Then last season brought with it a hitting funk like no other, eventually forcing the Cubs to ship C-Patt to Triple-A Iowa with the hope thathe would discover the problem and make the necessary adjustments. He didn't, but despite his often-questionable work ethic and pitiful plate discipline, he's only 26 and has the time and talent to get back on track.
Kevin Millar brings a ring and well-groomed facial hair to Baltimore, two things that are a rarity in the Orioles clubhouse. He'll likely platoon with Conine at first base and Lopez at designated hitter, but even though the Orioles will find at bats for him, his days of helping fantasy owners seems to be over.
Other offseason moves include adding reliever LaTroy Hawkins in a trade that sent Steve Kline to the Giants, and signing infielder Eddy Garabito. Other players who were allowed to walk include pitchers Sidney Ponson, Jason Grimsley, and closer B.J. Ryan, catcher Sal Fasano, first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, and outfielders B.J. Surhoff, Eric Byrnes, and Sammy Sosa.
Projected starters
C: Ramon Hernandez
1B: Jeff Conine/Kevin MIllar
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Miguel Tejada
3B: Melvin Mora
LF: Luis Matos
CF: Corey Patterson
RF: Jay Gibbons
DH: Javy Lopez/Millar
SP: Rodrigo Lopez
SP: Erik Bedard
SP: Daniel Cabrera
SP: Bruce Chen
SP: Hayden Penn
CL: Jorge Julio
What to watch
There are a handful of plot lines we'll be particularly interested in watching develop this spring. None will carry the impact of what is being labeled the "Mazzone effect." As we already mentioned, the track record of pitching coach Leo Mazzone is impressive. Now can he harness the skills of some promising young pitchers like Erik Bedard, who lost only one game in the first half last season and won only one game in the second half? Can he iron out Daniel Cabrera's command while maintaining his near strikeout-per-inning posted last season? Pitching is the key to the Orioles future, so nothing will be more important this season.
Count us among the Jorge Julio skeptics. During his three-year stint closing games from 2002-2004, he twice finished with an ERA over 4.30 and WHIP over 1.40. During that stretch, he converted only 83 of the 101 save opportunities. Offseason addition, Hawkins, hasn't fared much better closing games, converting 75 of his 111 career opportunities. The Orioles are understandably reluctant to force youngster Chris Ray into a high-pressure job like closer. It's going to be a headache figuring out who will be most effective putting out fires in the ninth inning.
We can't help but recall the distaste Lopez had over the Orioles decision to sign another starting catcher—in Hernandez—this offseason. "We have requested over the last couple of years that Javy gets an opportunity to play a little first base figuring that would be a logical development for him as he gets older," Chuck Berry—Lopez's agent—told the Baltimore Sun. "For them to all of a sudden say they want him to play first base, DH and a little bit of catcher, that's not something that he is too thrilled about." Despite the circumstances, the Orioles are finding few takers for Lopez.
We'll blame Bubba Crosby if Roberts is unable to return to form following surgery to reattach one ligament and repair another in his left elbow. After all, it was a collision at first base involving Crosby and Roberts that caused the severe injury. Roberts' production had slowed significantly prior to the injury, but we can't help but reminisce about the .365 average, 13 home runs, 51 runs, 44 RBI, and 16 stolen bases in the first half of last season and hope that perhaps he can flash even half of that potential this spring.
Spring Training will offer a chance to see promising outfield prospects Nick Markakis and Val Majewski in action. The Orioles aren't thrilled with Matos, and Patterson is little more than a temporary experiment so both players—especially Markakis—should have an opportunity to make the team and make an impact this season.
Fever Pitched
Spring Training Home: City of Palms Park - Ft. Myers, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Twins
It's tough to call a 95-win season a failure, but when you're the defending world champions and get swept out of the playoffs in the first round, there's enough reason to label it as such. The Red Sox did remarkably well considering the injuries and Manny trade requests they had to overcome, but their fan base grew spoiled due to the previous season's historical achievement of ending an 86-year championship drought. They start this spring with a handful of new faces and, with them, new question marks for the upcoming season.
Notable offseason transactions
The Red Sox faced significant backlash over the departure of general manager turned rock star, Theo Epstein. Epstein was considered primarily responsible for bringing a World Series championship to Boston and whether he had trouble dealing with fame or didn't see eye-to-eye with team president Larry Lucchino, his departure led to the hiring of co-general managers Ben Cherington and Jed Hoyer. However, just when we thought Epstein's return had been ruled out, he recently rejoined the Red Sox nation in a yet undefined role.
The biggest shift in assets occurred in November, when the Sox sent shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez along with pitching prospects Annibel Sanchez and Jesus Delgado to the Marlins in exchange for pitcher Josh Beckett, third baseman Mike Lowell, and reliever Guillermo Mota. While they had to give up two of their top five prospects, they gained much needed depth in their bullpen, a third baseman capable of hitting for more power than his predecessor, and an ace right-hander talented enough to take some of the load off his rotation mates.
Shortly after the Beckett deal, the Sox struck again, swapping backup catcher Doug Mirabelli with the Padres in exchange for second baseman Mark Loretta. While Loretta's numbers were down in 2005, it was because of two months lost to a torn ligament in his left thumb. He's still capable of being a productive table setter. In 2004, he set career highs in batting average, home runs, runs, and RBI so it's not unrealistic to expect a return to solid numbers, health permitting.
The trade-themed offseason continued, when shortstop Edgar Renteria was shipped with cash to the Braves for one of baseball's top hitting prospects in third baseman Andy Marte. It had become abundantly clear that Chipper Jones blocked Marte from a starting job in Atlanta, but this move doesn't provide him a better chance for playing time and it opened up a big hole in the Red Sox infield in the process.
A defensive-minded first baseman worked for the Sox before (see Doug Mientkiewicz) so why not try it again? They did just that, adding six-time gold glove winning first baseman JT Snow in early January. Snow hasn't hit more than eight home runs or topped 60 RBI in a season over the last five years, making him nearly irrelevant in fantasy circles…but he can still pick it with the best of them at first.
Also added were relievers Julian Tavarez, Rudy Seanez, and Justin Vermilyea as well as backup catcher John Flaherty. Tavarez, Seanez, and Vermilyea will provide middle relief while Flaherty will spell Varitek as needed.
On top of the previously mentioned departures, the Sox lost third baseman Bill Mueller, first basemen Kevin Millar and John Olerud, and reliever Mike Myers, but no offseason casualty will hurt as much as the defection of outfielder Johnny Damon, to the rival Yankees no less. They will miss his four straight seasons of 100-plus runs and at least 18 stolen bases, as well as his idiot caveman persona, but they may get the last laugh. Why? While over the last three years, there are only two ballparks in the American League that Damon hit worse in than in Yankee Stadium.
Projected starters
C: Jason Varitek
1B: J.T. Snow/Kevin Youkilis
2B: Mark Loretta
SS: Alex Cora
3B: Mike Lowell
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: Adam Stern
RF: Trot Nixon
DH: David Ortiz
SP: Curt Schilling
SP: Josh Beckett
SP: Tim Wakefield
SP: Matt Clement
SP: Bronson Arroyo
CL: Keith Foulke
What to watch
All who were inspired by Curt Schilling's performance in the 2004 World Series—bloody sock and all—were equally as frustrated last year. Any time you have to practically invent a new surgical procedure to correct your problem, it's not a positive sign for your recovery. Schilling was unable to drive off his right leg and as a result lost as much as 15 mph off his fastball last season. We'll be curious to see if he'll finally be back to pre-injury form this spring.
Beckett was acquired to be a workhorse at the front of the rotation, but in his four-year career, he has yet to pitch more than 200 innings in a single season. Coming off a season in which the Sox had pitching injuries of their own, they'll need Beckett to make a statement early in the spring and provide some confidence in his ability to set career-highs under the tutelage of Schilling and pitching coach Dave Wallace.
Are the Red Sox serious about starting the season with Cora at shortstop and Stern in the outfield? The team insists that their starting center fielder will come from outside the organization, ruling out Stern. The Mariners Jeremy Reed, Indians Coco Crisp, and Devil Rays Joey Gathright have all been mentioned as possible targets for the job. Their decision to deal Renteria without a shortstop replacement is nearly as dumbfounding as the center field conundrum. Failed trade talks with the Devil Rays and Orioles, for Julio Lugo and Miguel Tejada respectively, left them with Cora penciled in as starter and Graffanino as the backup. They won't win the East and may even fall short of the wild card unless these voids are addressed.
Will a lithium drip be powerful enough to withstand the mood swings of Manny? Lucchino claims that Ramirez has asked out four times in five seasons with the BoSox and, despite reports that he's rescinded his trade demands, the team is still entertaining offers.
Co-general manager Ben Cherington, discounted last season's hiccup and maintained his stance that the closer role is set heading into spring training. "Keith Foulke is the closer. He'll go into spring training as the closer, and he will have every opportunity to be the closer in 2006," Cherington told the Boston Herald. You'll have to forgive us if we don't share Big Ben's optimism, given Foulke's 57 days on the disabled list with knee problems last season. Mike Timlin was an adequate replacement, converting 13 of his 20 save opportunities, but a second season with that many chances to close out games, will mean bullpen problems in Boston. A dark horse candidate for saves would be rookie Craig Hansen who relies on a 96-mph fastball and power slider to dominate hitters and should at least find himself in a setup role by the end of the season.
The BoSox dealt some of their top prospects this offseason, but that doesn't mean they lack the type of young talent that could make an impact in fantasy leagues. They still have a collection of promising arms including Jon Papelbon, John Lester, Manny Delcarmen, and Hansen. After a 3-1 record, 2.65 ERA, and one strikeout per inning, Papelbon is the player in that group who is most likely to make an impact this season.
With Bennifer 2—or Garfleck if you prefer—tied up with parenthood, can I get their box seats?
Maybe This Year
Spring Training Home: HoHoKam Park - Mesa, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 2 vs. Athletics
Considering that forward-thinking Cubs fans are always looking ahead to the next season, we won't focus too much time reflecting on 2005. In the positive column, first baseman Derrek Lee posted career-highs across the board while taking a shot at the Triple Crown and pitcher Ryan Dempster displayed Kyra Sedgwick-like effectiveness as a closer (1.85 ERA, 33 saves). On the negative front…well, let's face it, we don't have enough space here. Lee and Dempster plan to nail down their respective positions again in 2006, and the Cubs still have one of the more promising pitching rotations in the game. The main reasons for optimism, though, lie in an overhauled outfield and a restocked bullpen.
Notable offseason transactions
The Cubs preparation for 2006 actually overlapped the end of the 2005 campaign. They signed Dempster to a three-year, $15.5 million extension on October 1. Later that month, they picked up options on second baseman Todd Walker and reliever Scott Williamson and signed pitcher Glendon Rusch to a two-year deal. A week later, infielder Neifi Perez inked a two-year contract.
General manager Jim Hendry then quickly dipped into the free agent market and shored up a sore spot in their roster. Left-hander reliever Scott Eyre signed a two-year, $11 million contract with an option for a third season, and right-handed setup man Bob Howry stamped a three-year, $12 million deal shortly thereafter.
With the bullpen adequately addressed, the Cubs turned to their offense. Shortly after missing out on shortstop Rafael Furcal, they turned to the minor league Marlins and acquired outfielder and leadoff hitter Juan Pierre in exchange for hurlers Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto. On that same day, they signed outfielder/corner infielder John Mabry to a one-year deal.
The team continued their outfield renovation when they signed Jacque Jones to a three-year contract in late December. He replaced free agent Jeromy Burnitz, who signed in Pittsburgh. In January, the Cubs traded disappointing outfielder Corey Patterson to the Orioles for shortstop Nate Spears and left-handed hurler Carlos Perez (no, not that Carlos Perez).
Along with Burnitz, the Cubs allowed infielder Nomar Garciaparra and reliever Chad Fox to limp away via free agency. The club also traded reliever Jermaine Van Buren to the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash and dealt pitcher Jon Leicester to the Rangers for a player to be named later. Lastly, veteran outfielder Marquis Grissom, middle infielder Augie Ojeda, and outfielder Michael Restovich all inked minor league deals with the Cubs.
Projected starters
C: Michael Barrett
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Todd Walker/Neifi Perez/Jerry Hairston
SS: Ronny Cedeno/Neifi Perez
3B: Aramis Ramirez
LF: Matt Murton
CF: Juan Pierre
RF: Jacque Jones
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Mark Prior
SP: Glendon Rusch
SP: Jerome Williams
CL: Ryan Dempster
What to watch
It's no secret that manager Dusty Baker generally distrusts younger players, but a couple of neophytes are lining up for serious playing time. Middle infielder Ronny Cedeno hit .300 over 80 big league at-bats last season and is in line to start at short. However, he may need to contend with veteran Neifi Perez if the Cubs don't trade second baseman Todd Walker, as has been rumored. Utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. is also healthy and looking for playing time at second. We like Cedeno's potential, but the middle infield is messy heading into spring training.
The other youngster vying for a starting gig is Matt Murton. All this red-haired 23-year-old did in 2005 was hit .342 at Double-A, .353 at Triple-A, and .321 in the majors. Murton has decent power and speed to go along with his high average, and his path is fairly clear right now. Hairston and Mabry could cut into his time, but provided that Murton handles himself well this spring, Baker should formally hand him the starting job.
Fantasy owners will undoubtedly want to check out Lee's spring numbers. He basically matched Albert Pujols stat-for-stat in 2005, and while we know the Cardinals slugger can do it again, Lee will have plenty of skeptics. While we don't want to read too much into how a player does in March, a strong spring would help alleviate some fears of a fall.
Notice a name missing from the rotation? Yes, we left Kerry Wood out of the picture. The general consensus is that Wood will not be ready for Opening Day, and the team is prepared to use other pitchers in the rotation. Wood underwent right shoulder surgery last September, and the procedure repaired some labrum issues and cleaned up fraying around the rotator cuff. The Cubs want Wood to start in the long run, but it's possible that he could return as part of the bullpen. His rehab process and the rumors about his role will be something to keep an eye on this spring.
Rusch and Williams are the leading contenders for the fourth and fifth spots, but we can't count out Rich Hill. The young left-hander struggled (9.13 ERA) in his 10 appearances (four starts) for the Cubs in 2005, but he went 11-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 130.2 minor league innings.
Cubs fans already employing the "Wait 'Til Next Year" motto might also use spring training to take a glance at and outfielder Felix Pie and pitcher Angel Guzman. Reports suggest that both promising prospects could be up with the club later in 2006 and play more prominent roles in 2007.
Don't Stop Believin'
Spring Training Home: Tucson Electric Park, Tucson, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 1 vs. Rockies
It was as if they intended to taunt their cross-town rivals. While the White Sox championship drought wasn't as painstakingly pronounced as the north-side Cubbies, it's time had come. Led by a troika of pitchers, a speedy center fielder, and the first baseman that has become the face of their franchise, the Pale Hose exceeded expectations in emphatic fashion, losing only one of their 12 games played in the playoffs. General manager Ken Williams hardly rested on his laurels though, shuffling the pieces of what he hopes is another successfully completed championship puzzle.
Notable offseason transactions
The most important transaction of the offseason was re-signing first baseman Paul Konerko. Was there ever any doubt that the Sox would match the Angels five-year, $60 million offer? After all—as Konerko claims in his letter to the fans on MLB.com—the day he decided to re-sign, he was home with his then two-month-old son Nicholas, and they made the decision together. We can only imagine it was the first of many father-son conversations enjoyed over a bottle of breast milk.
The price to acquire slugging first baseman Jim Thome was steep, but a left-handed, 40-home run designated hitter in the lineup to protect Konerko was tough to resist. It meant ignoring Thome's 110 days on the disabled list last year with multiple flare-ups of his chronic back problems and a sore elbow that required surgery. A move to full-time designated hitter role should keep him healthier, but it remains to be seen if giving up outfielder Aaron Rowand for one of baseball's best—albeit brittle—power hitters was worth it.
The Pale Hose had one of baseball's best starting rotations in '05, but that didn't stop Williams from trading pitchers Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino along with promising prospect outfielder Chris Young to the Diamondbacks for cash and pitcher Javier Vazquez. Hernandez's ERA climbed throughout the 2005 season to the point that is practically doubled from April to September. If you throw in the fact he wasn't striking out batters like he used to, it became clear that he was expendable. Vazquez hasn't been at his best during his tenure with the Yankees and Diamondbacks, but the Sox are banking on a return to the form that saw him win 13 games, post a 3.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and strike out just over a batter per inning during the 2003 season.
Even though it cost them solid setup man (Damaso Marte), trading for one of the best utility players in the game in Rob Mackowiak was a shrewd move by Sox management. Last year in Pittsburgh, Bobby Mack played everywhere on the diamond except shortstop, catcher, and designated hitter—a versatility boasted by few players. He still needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but should benefit from being in a better lineup.
Even if Thome plays only half a season, he stands a good chance at equaling the numbers or games played of departed designated hitters Carl Everett and Frank Thomas. While Thomas had become a fan favorite over his 15-years on the north side of Chicago, his time had come after 227 days on the DL in the last two seasons.
Projected starters
C: AJ Pierzynski
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Tadahito Iguchi
SS: Juan Uribe
3B: Joe Crede
LF: Scott Podsednik
CF: Brian Anderson
RF: Jermaine Dye
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Mark Buehrle
SP: Freddy Garcia
SP: Jon Garland
SP: Jose Contreras
SP: Javier Vazquez
CL: Bobby Jenks
What to watch
One has to wonder if Vazquez will be able to put a recent spike in home runs allowed behind him. He's generally a fly-ball pitcher and has allowed nearly two long balls per start in each of the past two seasons. That is a number that doesn't exactly play nice with U.S. Cellular Field—a ballpark widely considered the best home run park outside of Denver in the majors. Javy claims he underachieved with the Yankees and Diamondbacks and some people are projecting him for as many as 18 wins this season. He still seems like too much of a risk for that aggressive and positive projection.
The Sox are considering moving second baseman Tadahito Iguchi down in the lineup with the hope that he can bring his numbers more in line with his 2003 season in Japan. In 515 at bats with Fukuoka Daiei Hawks, Iguchi hit .317 with 16 home runs, 109 runs, 106 RBI, and 38 stolen bases. He probably won't ever pilfer that many bases again, but hitting behind guys who get on base will help him improve upon last year's already healthy RBI total.
No starting rotation in the American League pitched more than the 1,074 innings the Sox tossed last year. Naturally, we've started to wonder when the workload will catch up with them. Ace left-hander Mark Buehrle ranks behind only Nationals workhorse Livan Hernandez in innings since 2001, and was reportedly sore after pitching in relief during game three of the World Series. Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras all threw at least 237 innings last season, with Contreras being the only one in the group to not toss consecutive seasons of 200-plus frames. Perhaps that's why the Sox have an extra starter up their sleeve.
That extra arm and the current odd man out of the rotation is Brandon McCarthy, but it's not because he hasn't proven himself worthy of a spot. His 2005 season was a tale of two halves, with a 3-8 record, a 6.43 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP in the first half, and a 7-1 record, 2.52 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP in the second half (combined major and minor league numbers). All it took was a return engagement at Triple-A before he seemingly found his focus. McCarthy finished the regular season on a high note, knocking the division rival Indians from the playoffs with 6 1/3 solid innings on the last day of the season. He should be on the radar of fantasy owners, especially those in keeper leagues who should have the opportunity to maximize his long-term value.
When the Sox made the Thome deal, it immediately opened up a spot for top prospect Brian Anderson. After hitting .295 with 16 home runs, 71 runs, 57 RBI, and four stolen bases, he has little left to prove at the minor-league level. That doesn't mean the big league learning curve won't be pronounced for him. Similar numbers to Mariners outfielder Jeremy Reed's '05 totals (.254 average, three home runs, 61 runs, 45 RBI) are reasonable expectations. Bid conservatively on him.
Bobby Jenks has always had to fight through control issues, so much so that the Angels finally gave up on him after four years in their minor-league system. He showed some impressive growth as a pitcher last season, but too many people seem to have tunnel vision over his numbers. They only remember him leaping into the air after closing out a 1-0 victory to secure the World Series championship. Those same folks choose to forget him blowing a Series save for Buehrle, failing to convert a pair of saves against the Indians in September, and shutting the door in only seven of his last 10 save opportunities. Trends are often drawn from how players finish the previous season, and if you adhere to that train of thought, Jenks enters 2006 with some question marks.
Rangers of the North
Spring Training Home: Ed Smith Stadium – Sarasota, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 @ Tigers
Baseball's oldest franchise has undergone a series of changes to supposedly give them a new look. They lost their most recognizable face (Barry Larkin) prior to the 2005 season, followed up by dealing their most popular player (Sean Casey) this past December, and then turned over majority ownership to Robert Castellini on January 19. Despite their efforts at a new appearance, the roster seems an awful lot like the club that took the field all of last season. That crew led the National League in runs and homers but finished last in ERA. Fantasy owners should project more of the same in 2006.
Notable offseason transactions
Castellini, whose family earned their money by shipping fruits and vegetables, plans to produce a winner on the field as well. He previously owned parts of the Reds, Rangers, Orioles and Cardinals, but this is his first stint as the majority holder. If Castellini had been able to run the franchise as early as last October, he might have floated a few more dollars towards pitching. Unfortunately, the depleted Reds staff made only one positive move to aid their arms, and it cost them dearly.
On December 7, the Reds shipped Casey and cash to the Pirates in exchange for left-handed starter Dave Williams. The man known as The Mayor spent the last eight seasons with the Reds but will now be playing for a rival club. One day later, the Reds completed another trade, acquiring second baseman/outfielder Tony Womack from the Yankees in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers, second baseman Kevin Howard and outfielder Ben Himes.
Other additions include veteran left-handed reliever Chris Hammond and infielder Frank Menechino, although the Reds also deserve credit for re-signing infielder Rich Aurilia, catcher Jason LaRue, and reliever David Weathers. On the negative side of the ledger, the team lost second baseman D'Angelo Jimenez and pitchers Ramon Ortiz, Ben Weber, Joe Valentine, Randy Keisler, and Chris Booker.
Projected starters
C: Jason LaRue
1B: Adam Dunn
2B: Ryan Freel/Tony Womack
SS: Felipe Lopez
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
LF: Wily Mo Pena
CF: Ken Griffey, Jr.
RF: Austin Kearns
SP: Aaron Harang
SP: Dave Williams
SP: Eric Milton
SP: Paul Wilson
SP: Brandon Claussen
CL: David Weathers (and friends)
What to watch
Fantasy owners know many of the reasons why the Reds led the NL in runs, but did you notice that their catchers played a major role? Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin started all 162 games and combined for 28 homers and 110 RBI. They'd like to reproduce the stats and rotation (104 starts for LaRue, 58 for Valentin) in 2006, but will that be enough for Javier to be a fantasy factor again? A hot spring could solidify Valentin's bid for more at-bats.
Edwin Encarnacion, who recently turned 23, had mixed success in a half-season of major league action last season. He hit .232 with nine homers and 31 RBI over 211 at-bats. Prior to that, he batted .314 with 15 homers and 54 RBI over 290 at-bats at Triple-A Louisville. Encarnacion enters spring training with a decent hold on the third base job, but the team also needs to find playing time for Aurilia. The youngster needs to hit well to solidify his job and generate some fantasy value.
Also in the infield, Ryan Freel recently earned his second alcohol-related arrest in less than a year. The Reds love him as a utility player and leadoff hitter, and fantasy owners love his ability to steal bases. However, we need to see if his off-field issues create any uncertainty as to his on-field role. Aurilia and Womack are veterans fighting for playing time, and both can play second base.
The Casey trade created a couple of interesting situations for fantasy owners. Adam Dunn moves permanently to first base, and he is skipping the World Baseball Classic in order to concentrate on learning the position. He hit only .198 while handling first base duties in 2005. In the outfield, Wily Mo Pena now has a full-time starting gig, and fantasy owners have to be intrigued by his power potential. By the way, happy birthday to Wily Mo, who turned 24 on the same day this story was posted.
The starting rotation is fairly set heading into spring training, but each of the five hurlers carries a question. Is Aaron Harang that good? Is Eric Milton that bad? Can Paul Wilson bounce back from rotator cuff and labrum surgery? Will Williams and Brandon Claussen continue to improve? It all adds up to the important question: which (if any) of these starting pitchers will help fantasy teams?
On January 11, general manager Dan O'Brien told MLB.com, "At this point, we haven't been able to find a bona fide and experienced closer. We'll certainly continue to look."
Wonderful. The Reds wrapped up the 2005 season using a committee, and they project to open 2006 with a similar situation. Weathers is the lead candidate to pick up saves, but he's hardly a rock and recently tore a tendon in his right index finger. He's projected to be ready for spring training. Joining him in the closer mix are left-hander Kent Mercker and Todd Coffey. Can one man emerge this spring?
Smoke Signals
Spring Training Home: Chain of Lakes Park, Winter Haven, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 3 vs. Astros
General manager Mark Shapiro promised that the Indians team he helped build would contend last season. He was the only person not surprised when that prognostication came true—falling short of the playoffs in the last few days of the regular season. There has been enough roster shuffling to raise questions on whether or not the Indians have the personnel necessary to meet the higher expectations that result from last year's breakthrough.
Notable offseason transactions
Closer Trevor Hoffman went as far as undergoing a physical before deciding that leaving the comforts of San Diego for Cleveland wasn't the right choice. As a result, the Indians re-upped for one-year with Bob Wickman in hopes that he can save 45 games for the second straight season. The Indians obviously have very little confidence in Wickman's ability to match last year's numbers, as evidenced by their aggressive, but failed pursuit of Hoffman this winter.
When it became clear that retaining 2005 American League ERA champ Kevin Millwood would be fiscally impossible, the Indians concocted plan B—the "Byrd" plan. Early in December, the Indians signed pitcher Paul Byrd to a two-year contract, not content to settle on a one-year deal similar to the one they had signed with Millwood.
The loss of pitcher Scott Elarton didn't cut as deep as Millwood's departure, but it could not go unaddressed. The Tribe needed a reasonably priced option to fill the fifth rotation spot, and they looked to a division rival for the answer, agreeing to a one-year deal with former Tigers pitcher Jason Johnson. Johnson's 2005 numbers were quite similar to the man he is replacing.
The Indians were one of four finalists in the Nomar Garciaparra sweepstakes, but in the end it just wasn't in the cards. That left them with a void at first base and the outfield. They opted to fill that by adding Eduardo Perez and Todd Hollandsworth to platoon at first base and outfield respectively. Needless to say, that's quite a dropoff from Nomar.
The Indians have an empty cereal bowl to fill after dealing outfielder Coco Crisp to the Red Sox— physicals appear to be the only thing standing in the way of the trade being finalized. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the trade will send recently acquired reliever Guillermo Mota, heralded third base prospect Andy Marte, and possibly minor league catcher Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland for reliever David Riske, backup catcher Josh Bard, and Crisp. The Indians have a policy within their organization to not comment on transactions until they're formally finalized, but a tentative press conference is scheduled for Tuesday in Boston, where the Sox are expected to announce the deal.
The Indians have made the Crisp deal contingent upon not only player physicals, but their ability to acquire another outfielder as well. There were many players rumored to be heading to Cleveland, including free agent Jeff DaVanon and the Phillies' Jason Michaels. They coveted Michaels and the Cleveland Plain Dealer was reporting that a deal was nearly done that would send him to Cleveland for the small price of reliever Arthur Rhodes—pending physicals.
Other additions—like and infielder Lou Merloni and catcher Einar Diaz—were made to address depth. Unless a starter loses most of their season to injury, neither player stands a chance of accumulating more than 250 at bats. Diaz will fall into the third spot on the catching depth chart, while Merloni will fill the role of utility infielder left vacant by the departure of Jose Hernandez.
Relievers Steve Karsay and Danny Graves were brought in to compensate for Bob Howry's defection to the Cubs. Only five Indians pitchers had more innings than Howry last season, and they were all in the rotation. During time split between the Yankees and Rangers last season, Karsay posted an ERA over 4.00 for the first time in six years. Then there is Graves—a proverbial gas can who hit rock bottom last season with a 6.52 ERA and 2.04 WHIP.
The experiment to bring back outfielder Juan Gonzalez failed miserably. After only one at bat, Juan was gone for the year, completing a season that was more laughable than MTV's programming. After Grady Sizemore's emergence, it comes as no surprise that the Tribe allowed Gonzo to walk this offseason.
Projected starters
C: Victor Martinez
1B: Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez
2B: Ronnie Belliard
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Aaron Boone
LF: Todd Hollandsworth/Jason Michaels
CF: Grady Sizemore
RF: Casey Blake
DH: Travis Hafner
SP: C.C. Sabathia
SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Paul Byrd
SP: Jake Westbrook
SP: Jason Johnson
CL: Bob Wickman
What to watch
If the Tribe thinks Michaels is capable of the 20-20 numbers that Crisp was dangerously close to producing in each of the last two seasons, they are fooling themselves. To be fair, he's never been used in a starting capacity and thus, never had a season of 300 at bats. With moves like the Crisp and Michaels deal, you can only wonder if the team is playing for 2006 or already eyeing 2007.
Is Boone keeping the hot corner warm for Marte? Reports indicate that Marte became expendable in Boston when Johnny Damon bolted for New York and the need for a center fielder became more glaring. He now finds himself with the clearest path to the majors that he's seen throughout his entire career. That said, the door is only slightly ajar at the moment, as veteran Aaron Boone is expected to be the everyday starter at third. Marte will likely start the season at Triple-A Buffalo, and arrive in Jacobs Field later in the season, but with Boone set to be a free agent after the season, fantasy owners shouldn't have to wait much longer for Marte's arrival.
The drop-off from Millwood to Byrd is not as pronounced as you might think. Byrd missed 2003 after reconstructive elbow surgery, but over the last three seasons played, he has five more wins than Millwood and a better WHIP than his predecessor in each of those three seasons. Despite Millwood winning the AL ERA crown last year, he's been bested by the Byrd man in that department in two of the last three years. Byrd appears stronger since his surgery and while he won't help you in the strikeout department, he is a vastly underrated pitcher. The question is, with the move to a solid hitting ballpark, can he win at least 12 games for the third time in the last four years and will his ERA stay under 4.00 in the process?
You'll have to forgive us if we are less than impressed with the first-base platoon of Broussard and Perez. It begs the question of how long they will go before calling up promising prospect Ryan Garko. The only thing holding Garko back is his defense—his lack of mobility and presence of Victor Martinez was the reason for a position switch from catcher to first base prior to last season. He hit .317 with five home runs, 10 runs, 27 RBI in the Arizona Fall League and played first base almost exclusively in order to work on his defense. If the extra work he put in during the Arizona Fall League pays off, he could make the jump to the majors by midseason.
The Tribe continues to take a cautious approach with promising young pitcher Fernando Cabrera, but if the solid numbers continue he may force manager Eric Wedge to plug him into a larger role this season. After earning all-star honors at Triple-A, Cabrera posted a 1.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and almost a strikeout per inning in Cleveland. Wedge has admitted he's been thoroughly impressed with Cabrera and another solid season could make him the favorite to follow in the footsteps of Wickman as closer after the 2006 season.
Last season belonged to Sizemore and this season, it could be Franklin Gutierrez who emerges. Gutierrez has been a promising prospect for a while now, first in the Dodgers organization and then in the Indians system last year. While offseason winter leagues usually have as much relevance as spring training does in terms of predicting a player's future numbers, it's hard to ignore Gutie's .277 average, 13 home runs, and 36 RBI in 53 Venezuelan League games. Now that Crisp has all but packed up and moved east, it won't take much for Big Frankie to work his way into the outfield—perhaps with Casey Blake shifting over to left. Fantasy owners should keep him on their list of players to target late in their draft or auction.
On the Rocks
Spring Training Home: Hi Corbett Field - Tucson, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 2 at White Sox
The club dubbed "Todd and the Toddlers" tied the Pirates for the worst record in the National League last season, going 67-95 and finishing last in the weak NL West. However, the young Rockies provided glimpses of fantasy promise, especially from outfielder Matt Holliday and infielders Clint Barmes and Garrett Atkins. General manager Dan O'Dowd stayed the course this offseason, and the Rockies will enter 2006 with a slightly-seasoned version of the 2005 squad.
Notable offseason transactions
If we stick too close to the "notable" designation, this section might be empty. Thus, we're relaxing the transaction standards for the Rockies, and we begin with their power-shifting trade with the Cardinals. On December 7, the Rockies acquired left-handed relief pitcher Ray King from the St. Louis in exchange for outfielder Larry Bigbie and second baseman Aaron Miles.
But the exciting news did not end there. On that very same afternoon, the Rockies also shipped reliever Marcos Carvajal to the Mariners for catcher Yorvit Torrealba. One day later, the team made their biggest free agent acquisition when they added reliever Jose Mesa. Don't make other plans for October, Denverites!
Other players coming to Colorado this offseason include catcher Miguel Ojeda, infielder/outfielder Eli Marrero, first baseman Carlos Rivera, infielders Jason Smith and Josh Wilson, and relief pitchers Nate Field, Bret Prinz, Jamie Cerda, Steve Colyer, Keiichi Yabu, and Tom Martin.
Alas, free agency is a two-way street, and some people won't be wearing Rockies uniforms again in 2006. That list includes catcher Todd Greene, outfielder Dustan Mohr (still a free agent), and pitchers Jamey Wright and Dan Miceli.
Projected starters
C: Yorvit Torrealba/Danny Ardoin
1B: Todd Helton
2B: Luis Gonzalez
SS: Clint Barmes
3B: Garrett Atkins
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Cory Sullivan
RF: Brad Hawpe
SP: Jason Jennings
SP: Aaron Cook
SP: Jeff Francis
SP: Byung-Hyun Kim
SP: Zach Day/Sunny Kim
CL: Brian Fuentes
What to watch
Long-time fantasy stud Todd Helton is coming off of a very disappointing campaign, but he recently revealed that a back problem plagued him in spring training and throughout the first half of 2005. His back feels better this year, but he recently underwent minor surgery to remove a loose body from his right elbow. Helton is expected to be fully healthy in a few weeks, but you'll want to check before making him an early-round fantasy pick.
Fantasy owners in NL-only leagues have no choice but to pay attention to every catching battle. Thus, the fight between Torrealba and Danny Ardoin will be something to watch rather than avert your gaze from. Both players are more defensive-minded options, but one never knows when the Coors Field effect will turn an otherwise suspect bat into a fantasy prize. Ojeda is also in the mix, and the Rockies plan to move Marrero back to catcher. J.D. Closser, by the way, will likely start at Triple-A. Good times.
With Miles now wearing a Cardinals uniform, the Rockies have an opening at second base. Luis Gonzalez has a pretty strong hold on the job heading into spring training, and he's posted some decent stats as a utility player over the past couple of seasons. While we expect him to win the gig, don't count out Wilson and Omar Quintanilla, a pair of 24-year-olds fighting for roster spots.
The situation is similar in center field, where Cory Sullivan is switching from a backup role to a starting job. However, he's not the only player who's been itching to catch a break with the big club. Choo Freeman and Jorge Piedra both bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A in 2004 and 2005, and the two 26-year-olds undoubtedly want to take advantage of an opportunity. Ryan Spilborghs and Jeff Salazar could also make cases for playing time.
Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on right field, where Brad Hawpe hopes to improve after an injury-plagued 2005. The left-handed masher showed some promise prior to the All-Star break. The big question regarding his fantasy value is if the Rockies plan to use him exclusively or split at-bats with right-handed bomber Ryan Shealy.
As noted above, Zach Day and Sunny Kim will battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. Day may have an edge because Kim will pitch for South Korea in the World Baseball Classic, while Zach will be hanging out in Tucson. Regardless, this spring skirmish has barely more fantasy baseball relevance than the competition of "Dancing with the Stars."
Tiger Beat
Spring Training Home: Joker Marchant Stadium- Lakeland, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Reds
The Tigers look to continue a rebuilding project that hit its low during a 43-win season in 2003. They won 29 more games in 2004, but took a step back last season when they recorded only 71 victories despite spending big money on outfielder Magglio Ordonez during the winter and trading for second baseman Placido Polanco in early June. The failure to continue improving their win total cost Alan Trammel his managerial job and opened the door for the team to hire Jim Leyland, himself a former Tiger farmhand in the 60's. This will be Leyland's first gig since he captained the Rockies in 1999, a season which saw the inhabitants of Coors Field go 70-92. He'll face another stiff test in Motown in a division that features three other teams that could challenge for a pennant or wildcard birth. The Tigers have a lineup with solid fantasy options at many positions, but they won't be playing deep into October unless they see vast improvement from a young pitching staff that so far has been more bark than bite.
Notable offseason transactions
The Tigers understand their Achilles' heel is their hurlers, so president/general manager Dave Dombrowski gambled $16 million over the next two seasons that Kenny Rogers could take his mind off assaulting cameramen long enough to give the starting rotation the veteran leadership it lacked in 2005. Only one player over 30 years old, Jason Johnson, started a game for Detroit last season and he is now with division rival Cleveland. The 41-year-old Rogers is fresh off his best season since he was in Oakland, but struggled mightily after the All-Star break, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.72 ERA and .296 opponents' batting average. Fantasy owners should plan on getting numbers far closer to those he had following the All-Star break than the ones he did when he won 10 games prior to the mid-summer classic.
The Tigers also added some age and experience to their bullpen this winter. Todd Jones was brought north from the Marlins and will now be receiving a paycheck from his eighth team in six years. Jones returns to the team for whom he holds the franchise record for saves (42 in 2000) Having one player handle the closer role all year will be quite a change for Detroit, who had six guys earn at least one save last season but none register more than nine. Troy Percival was signed to be the closer last year, but he suffered a torn muscle in his right forearm and may never pitch again. Percival is still on the roster while he attempts to rehab, but his stock has taken a bigger hit recently than Ford's and fantasy owners can safely forget his name on draft day.
The addition of Jones moves Fernando Rodney to a set-up role, where he may be joined by new addition Matt Mantei. The right-hander is looking to turn his career around after a pair of terrible seasons. Last season's 6.49 ERA was actually more than five runs lower than what he managed as a Diamondback in 2004. Fantasy owners should have no interest in Mantei, but they will be very thankful if earns a spot in the pen and successfully bridges some late-inning gaps to Jones.
Johnson wasn't the only guy who left the Motor City to join a division foe. Rondell White took his injury-prone body and .313 average to the Twins to be their regular DH. Second baseman Jason Smith wanted a taste of the Rockies, so he signed a minor-league contract with Colorado in November.
Projected starters
C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Chris Shelton
2B: Placido Polanco
SS: Carlos Guillen
3B: Brandon Inge
LF: Craig Monroe
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Magglio Ordonez
SP: Jeremy Bonderman
SP: Mike Maroth
SP: Kenny Rogers
SP: Nate Robertson
SP: Justin Verlander/ Ramon Colon
CL: Todd Jones
What to watch
Spring training will be the battle ground for the No. 5 spot in the rotation with the current leading contenders being a troika of prospects. Justin Verlander was Detroit's top pick in 2004, but a lengthy holdout prevented from making his professional debut until last season. Last year saw him use his impressive fastball and knee-buckling curve to tear through the minors and earn a cup of coffee with the team. A spot in the rotation will not be handed to him, however, as both Joel Zumaya and Romon Colon will also be considered for that slot. They, too, are impressive prospects who will get long looks this spring and may end up in the bullpen if they don't get a starting job. None of these guys are anything more than a late-round selections for those in re-draft leagues, but Verlander is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and should be treated as such by those embarking on a dynasty league.
Perhaps Dombrowski's greatest achievement in Detroit is how he's restocked the Kitties' once-barren farm system. One of the gems of the organization is centerfielder Curtis Granderson, a third-round selection in 2002 who has developed into a blue-chip prospect. Although he is considered the frontrunner for the starting job, he'll receive a challenge during the spring from Nook Logan, who hit .258 with 17 RBI and stole 23 bases in 129 games last season. Logan's value to fantasy players is his ability to pilfer bases, but he won't get a chance to do much of that if he is only a part-time player. Granderson has also been endowed with the gift of speed and will use it to rack up scores of steals if he wins the job outright.
The Tigers have three first basemen that expect to make the team, but even with the DH rule, they can only get two of them on the field at a time. Chris Shelton and Dmitri Young are penciled in to be the primary first baseman and designated hitter respectively, but the team wants to give Carlos Pena a look in both roles. We don't expect Pena to wrestle either job away from the incumbent, but fantasy owners should monitor the situation to ensure he doesn't take a bite out of either's playing time.
One thing we've been trained to do is keep an eye on the health of Ordonez. He was recently quoted as saying he feels like he's 20 years old again because he's no longer plagued by injuries. However, we're still a bit hesitant to trust a guy who hasn't played more than 82 games in either of the last two seasons. A healthy and productive spring will go a long way towards quelling any fears about his health and increasing his fantasy value.
Raw Fish
Spring Training Home: Roger Dean Stadium – Jupiter, Florida
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 at Orioles
Following the 1997 World Series win, the Marlins held an infamous fire sale that saw them jettison Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Devon White, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Conine, Kevin Brown, Alex Fernandez, Al Leiter, Robb Nen, and others in exchange for younger, unknown options. The 1998 club went 54-108 despite the efforts of 25-and-under players like Derrek Lee, Edgar Renteria, Cliff Floyd, Alex Gonzalez, Matt Kotsay, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Mantei. Of course, the youthful squad also included flops like Jesus Sanchez and Andy Larkin. What's the point of digging up these past memories? Well, the Marlins repeated history this offseason when they shed most of their best players and tentatively plugged in unproven options. Which prospects will rise as fantasy stars and which will flop? That's the huge question this spring.
Notable offseason transactions
The lengthy list of names and deals begins with the head honcho. Jack McKeon, 75, stepped down as manager after the 2005 season, and the Marlins then beat out the Devil Rays for the services of 41-year-old Joe Girardi. The former catcher then watched as the team was dismantled.
On November 24, the Marlins completed two major deals. The first transaction sent 2004 World Series MVP Josh Beckett, third baseman Mike Lowell, and reliever Guillermo Mota to the Red Sox in exchange for shortstop Hanley Ramirez, starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez, and relievers Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado. The second trade brought in first baseman Mike Jacobs, infielder Grant Psomas, and starting pitcher Yusmeiro Petit from the Mets for first baseman Carlos Delgado and cash.
In early December, the Twins came calling and acquired second baseman Luis Castillo for closer Travis Bowyer and starting pitcher Scott Tyler. The Mets then grabbed catcher Paul Lo Duca and sent starting hurler Gabriel Hernandez and outfielder Dante Brinkley down south. A couple days later, outfielder Juan Pierre was shipped to the Cubs in exchange for starting pitchers Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Reynel Pinto.
Lastly, the Marlins made a trio of other minor, cash-saving transactions. They dealt hurler Ron Villone to the Yankees for pitcher Ben Julianel, sent third baseman Joe Dillon to the Yomiuri Giants in exchange for cash, and shipped middle infielder Josh Wilson to the Rockies for cash or a player to be named later.
Many other veteran talents also left via free agency. That list includes Conine, pitcher A.J. Burnett, closer Todd Jones, outfielder Juan Encarnacion, shortstop Alex Gonzalez, second baseman Damion Easley, infielder Mike Mordecai, and hurlers Ismael Valdez, Paul Quantrill, Tim Spooneybarger, Antonio Alfonseca, Jim Mecir, and John Riedling.
As one might imagine, the Marlins had plenty of roster spots to fill, and they've signed and invited a bunch of journeymen to spring training. The best-known names are reliever Joe Borowski, infielders Pokey Reese and Alfredo Amezaga, third baseman Wes Helms, and catcher Miguel Olivo. Other people on the list include reliever Kerry Ligtenberg, outfielders Matt Cepicky and Mark Little, infielders Lenny Harris and Mike Kinkade, catcher Ryan Jorgensen, and pitchers Ryan Rupe, Josh Stewart, and Buddy Carlyle.
Projected starters
C: Josh Willingham/Miguel Olivo
1B: Mike Jacobs
2B: Pokey Reese/Dan Uggla
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Miguel Cabrera
LF: Chris Aguila
CF: Eric Reed
RF: Jeremy Hermida
SP: Dontrelle Willis
SP: Jason Vargas
SP: Brian Moehler/Josh Johnson
SP: Sergio Mitre/Yusmeiro Petit
SP: Scott Olsen/Anibal Sanchez/Ricky Nolasco
CL: Joe Borowski/Travis Bowyer
What to watch
Any number of lines from the movie "Major League" would be suitable here, as the list of names above is about as familiar as Pedro Cerrano, Rick Vaughn, and Willie Mays Hayes were to Indians fans. The main focus this spring is for fantasy owners just to get an idea of who some of these guys are. The amount of slashes tells readers that there are plenty of position battles to watch, and we'll highlight the few that have the most fantasy relevance. First, though, we begin with the known commodities and the big question.
Who is going to help Miguel Cabrera? The stud outfielder (who will now return to third base) lost all of his offensive pals this offseason. Current projections have outfielder Jeremy Hermida and first baseman Mike Jacobs protecting Cabrera in the order. Hermida ripped up Double-A pitching last season and Jacobs impressed at both Double-A and with the Mets, but we have obvious questions about them holding down middle-of-the-lineup spots.
Josh Willingham mashed Double-A pitching in 2004 and Triple-A offerings in 2005, but the Marlins weren't able to find a spot for him with the big club. Part of the problem is his defense. Girardi and bench coach Gary Tuck plan to work hard on Willingham's catching skills this spring, and if that goes well, Josh could beat out Olivo, who is already solid defensively. If not, Willingham could bounce around between catcher, outfield, and first base and still earn plenty of at-bats. Matt Treanor will also be in the catching mix.
Shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who turned 22 last month, has drawn comparisons to Renteria, who broke in with the Marlins when he was 20. Ramirez batted .271 with six homers, 52 RBI, 66 runs, and 26 steals at Double-A Portland in 2005, and while defense shouldn't be an issue, he needs to show that he can handle the bat at the major league level in order to secure his job. Robert Andino is a long-shot to steal the starting gig, and we also can't count out Reese.
Speaking of Pokey, his likely landing spot is second base. However, we're a bit intrigued by Rule V pick Dan Uggla. The 25-year-old batted .297 with 21 homers, 87 RBI, 88 runs, and 15 steals at Double-A Tennessee last year and then hit well in the Arizona Fall League. Uggla also played third, first, and shortstop in 2005 (and left field in 2004), which may help his cause this spring.
Lastly, for the fielders, Eric Reed is slated to take over in center. Between Double-A and Triple-A in 2005, Reed hit .276 with two homers, 35 RBI, 54 runs, and 40 steals. He rarely walked (20) and struck out 93 times. Despite those disparate marks, Reed could open as the leadoff batsman and help out fantasy owners with stolen bases. We'll see how he does this spring, though.
On the pitching front, readers can see the mess behind Dontrelle Willis, and Girardi offered this quote to MLB.com in January, "It's a nice problem to have. Most teams would love to have that now. A lot of teams would probably like to have eight veterans. But we have eight young kids that have a chance to develop."
We're not sure that "nice" is the adjective we would use, as the Marlins rotation could be a work-in-progress all season. Jason Vargas, Sergio Mitre, and Brian Moehler feel like the best bets after Willis, but it's basically an open competition this spring. Petit and Sanchez could either hurt or help their prospects by pitching for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic.
We close with the end of the bullpen, which features one name readers recognize and one unknown. Borowski, who saved 33 games for the Cubs in 2003, pitched well late in 2005 for the Devil Rays and is the frontrunner. The 24-year-old Bowyer will push him, though. Bowyer posted 23 saves, a 2.78 ERA, and 96 strikeouts over 74.3 innings at Triple-A Rochester last season, and at worst, he'll be one of the team's key setup men.
Texas Two Step
Spring Training Home: Osceola County Stadium, Kissimmee, FL
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Indians
On the arms of stalwarts Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Brad Lidge, the Astros made an improbable run all the way to the World Series. The magic ran out against the White Sox, but the 'Stros 2005 season was the most successful in franchise history. And, really, what better way to capitalize on the team's first World Series appearance than to jettison a couple of baseball legends? The Astros, despite ditching Clemens and his fat contract and making enemies with former Face of the Franchise Jeff Bagwell, enter 2006 with surprisingly few question marks.
Notable offseason transactions
Clemens proved he has plenty left in the tank by going 13-8 with a dominating 1.87 ERA a year ago, but he did the team no favors by straddling the retirement fence after the season ended. With the Rocket's status in the air, the Astros had little choice but to decline him arbitration, which could have left them on the hook for somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million for the veteran's services. The Clemens saga likely won't play out until February, at least, but he won't be able to return to the Astros until after May 1, per arbitration rules. The Rocket is expected to play for the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic and make a decision regarding his playing future shortly thereafter. The Astros remain in the running should Clemens opt to play again this season.
Killer B-turned-benchwarmer Bagwell finally hit the wall in 2005. The 37-year-old veteran has an arthritic shoulder condition that limited him to 100 at-bats and now has his playing career in jeopardy. The team has filed an insurance claim that could allow them to recoup $15.6 million of the slugger's $17 million 2006 salary, but Bagwell intends to report to spring training and has been playing a game of cat-and-mouse with general manager Tim Purpura over his health and status with the team. Bagwell and Purpura are scheduled to appear on Dr. Phil in February in an effort to mend their damaged relationship, but fantasy owners can rest assured Bagwell's situation has little to no bearing on the Astros' offensive plans in 2006.
That much was assured when team inked outfielder Preston Wilson to a free agent deal, thus pushing Lance Berkman to first base on a full-time basis. Wilson's unique contract, which is guaranteed for $4 million in 2006, could be worth up to $28 million if Houston opts to pick up a three-year option at the end of the season. Wilson is an injury concern but is a proven run-producer and will be an upgrade in left field over last year's platoon of youngsters Luke Scott and Chris Burke.
Catcher Brad Ausmus was given a two-year deal to remain with the club, as was reserve outfielder Orlando Palmeiro. Utility man Jose Vizcaino, whose memorable pinch-hit single drove home two runs in what wound up as a demoralizing 7-6 loss in Game 2 of the World Series, was not so lucky. Allowed to sign with the Giants in the offseason, he won't be missed.
Projected starters
C: Brad Ausmus
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Craig Biggio
SS: Adam Everett
3B: Morgan Ensberg
LF: Preston Wilson
CF: Wily Taveras
RF: Jason Lane
SP: Roy Oswalt
SP: Andy Pettitte
SP: Brandon Backe
SP: Ezequiel Astacio/ Wandy Rodriguez
SP: Rodriguez/ Fernando Nieve/ Taylor Buchholz
CL: Brad Lidge
What to watch
All eyes will be on the Clemens decision come late February, but until then the Astros rotation is in a state of flux. Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte are both aces and Brandon Backe is slotted in at No. 3. Backe has been the author of several memorable playoff appearances in the past two years but was too inconsistent in his first full season in the rotation in 2005. He's not overpowering by any means, but watch his progress in spring training as a potential back-of-the-rotation guy in deep or NL-only fantasy leagues.
After Backe, things get a little murky. Wandy Rodriguez won 10 games in unimpressive fashion in 2005 and should battle Ezequiel Astacio, who is the better prospect, for the No. 4 spot in the rotation. Astacio is far more intriguing, but he'll have to put memories of his 14th-inning collapse in Game 3 (he surrendered the game-losing homer to Geoff Blum) behind him. Astacio has the ability to win double-digit games with solid strikeout totals while not destroying your ERA or WHIP, but is probably only relevant in NL-only formats unless he does something spectacular this spring.
Fernando Nieve struggled at Triple-A a year ago after dominating at lower levels, but the team is optimistic he could join the bullpen at some point in 2006, with an eye towards the rotation eventually. An eye-opening spring could put him in contention for the fifth spot immediately, but don't count on it. Taylor Buchholz was one of the cogs of the Billy Wagner deal (along with Astacio and Brandon Duckworth) two years ago. In fact, he was considered the prize of that deal, though a shoulder injury derailed his 2005 campaign. He recovered to throw 23 innings of solid ball in the Arizona Fall League, but likely won't be a factor for at least another year.
The bullpen is rock-solid, with resurgent righty Dan Wheeler emerging a year ago as a force setting up for one of baseball's most dominant closers, Brad Lidge.
The Bagwell situation is also worth watching, but even if he returns he'll be little more than the world's most expensive pinch hitter. The rest of the lineup is essentially set, with the possible exception of right field. Jason Lane has a huge lead in the clubhouse, but Chris Burke or Lance Scott could, in theory, weasel their way into the picture with big springs.
Morgan Ensberg finally realized his potential in 2006, but was the definition of inconsistency for three years prior. If he's dropping bombs again this spring, go ahead and pencil him in for numbers approximating his 2005 breakout season.
Royally Flushed
Spring Training Home: Surprise Stadium, Surprise, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 3 vs. Rangers`
The Royals have been a tormented franchise for decades. This was obvious in last year's 56-106 record, which subsequently earned them last place in the league for the first time in the franchise's 37-year history. The wildest roller coaster in the world couldn't hold a candle to the Royals. A team that became the first to ever sweep both the Yankees and Dodgers in three-game series in the same season, lost 19 straight a little over a month later. According to general manager Allard Baird, the team is in the second stage of a three-stage rebuilding plan targeted at returning to contention in the American League Central. You'll have to excuse us when we say, we'll believe when we see it.
Notable offseason transactions
In an effort to add to the front of the rotation, Mark Redman was acquired from the Pirates in exchange for minor-league reliever Jonah Bayliss and the infamous player to be named later. Redman has won 11 or more games in two of the last three seasons, but he wasn't exactly at his best last year. A 5-15 record, 4.90 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP are testament to his 2005 struggles.
The busiest day of the Royals offseason was December 16—the day they signed four players to contracts, including first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz. If Mientkiewicz only still had the Red Sox winning World Series ball with him, it would constitute the closest the Royals have been to the Fall Classic in 20 years. Mike Sweeney will likely serve as designated hitter more often than first baseman, but the probable first base platoon includes Sweeney, Mientkiewicz, and Matt Stairs. Of the three, only Sweeney figures to possess any fantasy value.
Another notable signing from the December 16 transaction binge was second baseman Mark Grudzielanek. The team's biggest goals for the offseason were to acquire a veteran to start at second, and a young outfielder—one out of two isn't bad. Grudzielanek has hit above .300 in two of his last three seasons and was particularly on fire last August, when he hit .368 for the month. Even on a team as mediocre as the Royals, Grudz should continue to be one of the top-25 second basemen in fantasy baseball. How's that for a ringing endorsement?
Pitcher Scott Elarton was the third of four December 16 additions and one that Baird feels is one of the most important. "Elarton is a lock in the rotation," Baird told MLB.com. "He's an innings guy that's what we're looking for from him. Makeup-wise, the way he goes about his business, he's a good tone-setter for a lot of our kids." After winning 17 games with the Astros in 2000 , Elarton has won only 29 games over the last four years.
If you believe that Reggie Sanders is that young outfielder that the Royals coveted, you haven't seen his birth certificate. The 38-year old will make the Royals his seventh team in the last eight seasons and he'll be a welcome addition considering the veteran leadership he can provide—three of the last four teams he has played for have played in the World Series. It also doesn't hurt that he's hit at least 20 home runs in each of his last five seasons.
The Royals also added catcher Paul Bako and pitchers Joe Mays, Elmer Dessens, and Bobby Madritsch. Bako is expected to serve as the backup to John Buck. Madritsch is expected to miss half of the season after surgery last year to repair a torn labrum, Dessens will serve as a middle reliever, and Mays will attempt to finally make it back from elbow surgery conducted in 2004.
The Royals didn't exactly have the assets on their roster to suffer many significant losses this offseason. That said, pitcher D.J. Carrasco was sold to the SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League. They should have no problem spending that money on another pitcher who is capable of posting an equally awful 4.79 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Other players who will no longer be with the Royals this season include pitchers Shawn Camp and Chris Demaria, as both were designated for assignment. Designated hitter Ken Harvey also was designated for assignment, but eventually signed a minor-league deal to return to the Royals.
Projected starters
C: John Buck
1B: Doug Mientkiewicz
2B: Mark Grudzielanek
SS: Angel Berroa
3B: Mark Teahen
LF: Emil Brown
CF: David DeJesus
RF: Reggie Sanders
DH: Mike Sweeney
SP: Mark Redman
SP: Scott Elarton
SP: Zack Greinke
SP: Runelvys Hernandez
SP: Joe Mays
CL: Mike MacDougal
What to watch
Zack Greinke got only 3.4 runs of support in his starts last season, which was the fourth fewest total in the league. That lack of support stretched to the defensive side of the ball as well, as 34 percent of the balls put in play off Greinke ended up as hits. The 22-year old right-hander displayed enough talent to help us defend the outings where he allowed a whopping 11 earned runs with the aforementioned support stats. This spring, we'll be watching for two things: refinement of his already effective fastball, slider, and curveball, and whether or not he mixes up those pitches to keep hitters off balance. After that, we'll have an eye on the offensive and defensive support and we'll have our fingers crossed that the team shows some improvement. Greinke will be hoping for the same.
The most pleasant surprise for the Royals last year, was the emergence of outfielder Emil Brown—who had toiled in anonymity with the Pirates and Padres, accruing just over 400 at bats over a five-year period. Brown had always had a knack for collecting extra base hits so the spike in home runs wasn't totally mind boggling. As with most power hitters, however, the strikeouts became a concern, with 108 whiffs in 545 at bats last season. Fantasy owners trying to predict a rise or fall in Brown's fantasy stock need to be watching him at the plate this spring, to see if he's cut down on the whiffing and is making more contact with the ball.
One prospect that is closer to making an impact at the major league level than heralded corner infielder Alex Gordon is outfielder Billy Butler. Butler hits with power to all fields and has tremendous bat speed, but his defensive shortcomings are the reason he is still in the minors. Baseball America claims he should eventually become an All-Star-caliber player along the lines of Indians slugger Travis Hafner. He'll be in spring training, but is a long shot to make the team and will more likely to be a midseason call-up. Fantasy owners should take advantage of the opportunity to see him this spring and if the Hafner comparisons hold up, strongly consider spending a couple auction bucks or late-round pick on him.
Unless you are manager Buddy Bell, or the mother of catcher John Buck, you probably weren't aware of how strong he finished last season. Buck hit safely in 17 of his last 19 games played, hitting .356 during that stretch. At 25-years old, he is still making adjustments at the plate, but the late season flurry has us wondering if he can carry the success into this season. Fantasy owners should watch him this spring to see if he's still swinging a hot bat and, if he is, don't hesitate to make him an end game flier pick with the purpose of filling their second catcher spot.
What's in a Name?
Spring Training Home: Tempe Diablo Stadium- Tempe, Arizona
First Cactus League Game: March 3 vs. Padres
Beautiful weather, ownership committed to winning, and a short drive to Disney Land make playing for the Angels one of the best jobs in baseball. The appeal of the team is also enhanced by the fact they're one of the most successful franchises of this century and the two-time defending American League West champs. Led by one of the top managers in the game, Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles boasts a balanced lineup that features one of baseball's best fantasy players in Vladimir Guerrero and a top-notch bullpen anchored by elite closer Francisco Rodriguez. This collection of stars is augmented by a farm system stocked to the brim with talented prospects all over the diamond, ensuring the franchise's future is as bright as the midday California sun.
Notable offseason transactions
The Angels believe they bolstered their pitching staff in December when they signed right-hander Hector Carrasco, who went 5-4 with a 2.04 ERA in 64 appearances with the Nationals last season. He spent most of the year coming out of the pen, but did take the ball in five starts, going 1-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. Considering that Carrasco hadn't finished a season prior to 2005 with an ERA under 4.25 since 1997, we're going to classify last year as a fluke. Another strike against him entering this season is that he has only six career starts under his belt. Expect numbers much closer to his career ERA (3.94) as he enters the year at the back end of the rotation.
J.C. Romero and his unstable temperament were acquired from the Twins this winter for infield prospect Alexi Casilla. When Romeo keeps his head on straight and his attitude in check, he's a very effective southpaw who mows through lefties. However, he wore out his welcome in the Twin Cities after displaying an inability to stop inherited runners from crossing the plate and multiple arguments with the coaching staff.
Bengie Molina left the team after eight years of service, but his new home is still unknown. He remains a free agent and has threatened to sit out the entire season if he doesn't get a contract to his liking. Call us crazy, but we're skeptical that he'll forgo an entire season of major league money as a negotiating ploy. While we expect him to sign somewhere before or during spring training, it is highly unlikely it will be with his old team.
The Angels also lost one of their most reliable starters when Paul Byrd signed a two-year, $14.25 million deal to dress up like an Indian. They also traded catcher Josh Paul to the Devil Rays and parted ways with outfielder Jeff DaVanon when he was granted his unconditional release.
Projected starters
C: Jose Molina/ Jeff Mathis
1B: Casey Kotchman
2B: Adam Kennedy
SS: Orlando Cabrera
3B: Chone Figgins
LF: Garret Anderson
CF: Darin Erstad
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
SP: Bartolo Colon
SP: John Lackey
SP: Kelvim Escobar
SP: Ervin Santana
SP: Hector Carrasco
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
What to watch
While Bengie is no longer a part of the organization, the Molina legacy continues behind the plate in the form of younger brother Jose. The starting job may not be his alone; however, because top prospect Jeff Mathis is ready to earn a paycheck endorsed by owner Arte Moreno and will get a chance to prove himself this spring. Mathis is a strong defensive option who has shown in the minors that he can handle a staff and throw out runners at a respectable rate. The team is also high on 24-year-old Mike Napoli, but he's likely going to spend the year at Triple-A Salt Lake. That leaves Molina and Mathis to battle for the starting job. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, these guys aren't exactly the M&M boys, as neither one hits consistently enough to be favored to win the job outright. Thus, a platoon situation may develop, robbing both players of any trace of fantasy value.
Speaking of prospects, the Angels farm system is one of the best in the game and many of those youngsters will be given a good look during spring training despite already being earmarked to start the season in the minors. Shortstop Brandon Wood and second baseman Howie Kendrick are considered two of the best prospects in the game, so fantasy owners in keeper leagues should keep an eye on how they look during spring games. Fellow shortstop Erick Aybar is also considered a blue-chip prospect and may eventually force the team to move Wood to third base so both can occupy the same infield. Aybar, second baseman Alberto Callaspo, and first baseman Kendry Morales, who had an excellent season in the Arizona Fall League, project to begin the year in the Triple-A. Callaspo does have a shot to be the Angels' utility infielder and Morales is a candidate to be called up if a spot opens at DH or first base.
Juan Rivera hit .271 and drove in 59 runs in 106 games last season and is slated to be the team's DH in 2006. He may also be asked to more frequently spell the aging Garret Anderson in right field. The goal here is preserve the health of Anderson, who has missed 70 games over the last two seasons with various ailments. But his bat is too potent and reliable to taken out of the lineup entirely, so he'd likely be moved over to DH on days Rivera is asked to roam right. This is a positive development for Anderson because it should help him stay healthy through the entire season and allow his fantasy owners to have him all year. We'll be keeping on eye on if Scioscia indicates he'll employ this philosophy and you should do the same.
We'll also be watching Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon this spring to ensure he's fully recovered from the strained right shoulder that knocked him out of the playoffs. MLB.com reports that he has been playing long toss but is yet to throw off a mound. While he obviously isn't fully recovered right now, he is expected to throw off a mound soon and be ready for spring training. Backup third baseman Dallas McPherson is also recovering from an injury. A bone spur in his hip cut short his 2005 season in September, but he expects to be full strength for the start of spring drills and will compete with Chone Figgins for at-bats at the hot corner.
The Walking Wounded
It wasn't quite the Reign of Terror, but after suffering through their worst season since 1992 with a 71-91 record (also the second-worst record since the club moved to Hollywood), owner Frank McCourt went on a purge that would make Robespierre and the Jacobins of the late 18th century proud (think back to 12th grade history and the French Revolution lesson you once thought was useless information). Manager Jim Tracy was guillotined a la Louis XVI on October 3 and general manager Paul DePodesta met the same fate on October 30, thus ending a brief, controversial era for the young "Moneyball" practitioner – in which he won the N.L. West in year one before the 2005 debacle that led to his demise. Overall, his tenure was marked by a series of questionable trades and suspect free agent moves which had the Dodger faithful pondering storming the Bastille. So, just one full year removed from the postseason, the 2006 season begins with new faces throughout the lineup, question marks on a bevy of injured holdovers, and new leadership from top to bottom.
Now, take a deep breath.
Okay, here we go.
Notable offseason transactions
McCourt moved quickly in bringing in 50-year-old Ned Colletti, formerly an assistant GM for nine years with the Giants, as the Dodgers new general manager. Colletti is the polar opposite of deposed GM DePodesta. The former Billy Beane protege was just 31 when hired by the Dodgers two years earlier and espoused a philosophy of personnel moves based almost exclusively on statistical analysis. Conversely, Colletti is an old-schooler who values intangibles like character and experience over pure numbers.
Colletti got things started by inking former Red Sox manager Grady Little to a two-year deal as the successor to Jim Tracy as the Dodgers skipper. Little, despite a rocky ending to his Red Sox career, managed to compile a 188-136 record in two seasons there – the best winning percentage of any manager in the last 35 years. As long as he doesn't have to make a decision involving Pedro Martinez at Yankee stadium in the playoffs, he should do the Chavez Ravine faithful proud.
Deep breaths. In. Out. In. Out. Good.
One day after the Little hiring, the Dodgers announced the signing of shortstop Rafael Furcal to a three-year deal worth nearly $40 million. Though the signing came at a steep price, Furcal is undoubtedly one of the best defensive shortstops and one of the best leadoff men in baseball. He hit .284 with 12 homers, 58 RBI, and 46 stolen bases for the Braves in 2005 and immediately upgrades an offense that ranked 26th in the league in both runs and steals a year ago.
After apparently ignoring Furcal's off-the-field history with drunken driving, Colletti made good on his reputation for stressing character over, uh, clinical insanity by sloughing off outfielder Milton Bradley on the A's along with infielder Antonio Perez in exchange for minor league prospect Andre Ethier.
A day later, Colletti reunited Little with former Red Sox third baseman Bill Mueller, who will take over the hot corner in L.A. for the next two years. Veteran catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. was also brought on to provide depth behind promising youngster Dioner Navarro.
All right. We're about halfway there. Grab a drink of water, rest your eyes for a few minutes, then follow along.
On December 19, the Dodgers emerged victorious in the Nomar Garciaparra sweepstakes, again rejoining Little with one of his former players. Nomar is slated to play first base on a one-year deal worth a reported $6-8 million. Hee-Seop Choi may get some at-bats against righthanders in order to keep Nomar fresh.
Veteran center fielder Kenny Lofton was signed a day later to take over for the departed Bradley. The same day, Colletti also hired four additional team doctors to take care of the oft-injured Lofton and Garciappara, who have missed a combined 552 games over the last three seasons.
The Dodgers next turned their attention to the pitching staff, inking free agents Brett Tomko and Aaron Sele and trading relievers Duaner Sanchez andSteve Schmoll to the Mets for starter Jae Seo. Tomko, Sele, and Seo will battle for spots in the rotation.
Bullpen help was last on the docket. The Dodgers acquired former Devil Rays closer Danys Baez and youngster Lance Carter in exchange for prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany.
Whew.
Projected starters
C: Dioner Navarro
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jeff Kent
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: Bill Mueller
LF: Jose Cruz, Jr.
CF: Kenny Lofton
RF: J.D. Drew
SP: Derek Lowe
SP: Brad Penny
SP: Odalis Perez
SP: Brett Tomko
SP: Jae Seo
CL: Eric Gagne/ Danys Baez
What to watch
Aside from watching to make sure all the new parts fit together correctly, a number of injured stalwarts must nurse themselves back to health before fantasy owners will consider taking a chance on them.
First and foremost on that list is closer Eric Gagne. The former fantasy first-rounder underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow last June and vows that he'll be ready to pitch come opening day. The acquisition of Baez, however, clouds the issue significantly. Baez, while clearly a top setup man, has also proven he has what it takes to close games and is a great insurance policy should Gagne not be himself once he returns. There is also the possibility that the Dodgers could lose Gagne to free agency next season, meaning they could deal him at the trade deadline to avoid getting nothing in return should Gagne bolt in the offseason. At any rate, Gagne's progress in Grapefruit league play will be the most important situation to watch in spring training.
Brad Penny wasn't himself in 2005, as he still appeared hampered by nerve damage in his throwing arm suffered late in 2004. If he's throwing like he did in his breakout season that year before the injury, he could be a late-round bargain in fantasy drafts and auctions.
Same goes for Odalis Perez, who was limited to just 19 starts in 2005 with a mixed bag of maladies. He was once a solid No. 2 fantasy starter and, if he's throwing well this spring, could represent good value on the cheap this season.
In the outfield, the perpetually injured J.D. Drew has a lot to prove. He played just 72 games in 2005 before a broken wrist ended his season. In addition to the wrist, Drew underwent offseason surgery on an injured labrum in his throwing shoulder that has the potential to keep him from starting 2006 on Opening Day. He claims he's ready to hit, but probably won't throw much during spring training. Tread very carefully with the high-risk, high-reward Drew on draft day.
Outfielder Jayson Werth missed 60 games last year with knee and wrist injuries. Werth fractured the wrist in season and underwent further surgery in November to repair torn ligaments in the joint. He will not be ready to start spring training and has stated that he's not sure when he can swing a bat. With Jose Cruz Jr. entrenched in left, his window of opportunity may be rapidly closing.
As if all that wasn't enough, Jeff Kent had scar tissue removed from his wrist and isn't expected back until mid-March, Furcal had minor knee surgery but is expected to be ready for spring, and last year's starting shortstop, Cesar Izturis is expected to be sidelined until at least the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery last season.
Happy Hour?
Spring Training Home: Maryvale Baseball Park, Phoenix, AZ
First Cactus League Game: March 2 vs. Giants
Before 2005, the Brewers last finished at or above .500 in the standings in 1992. You know, that loveable squad led by Paul Molitor, an aging Robin Yount, and legends like Franklin Stubbs, Pat Listach, and Kevin Seitzer? And, of course, how could anyone forget the celebrated rotation led by Bill Wegman, Jamie Navarro, and Chris Bosio? How that '92 squad ever went 92-70 is one of baseball's great mysteries, but things are looking up in Beer Town for the first time in nearly 15 years. Armed with a trio of top-of-the-rotation starters and several of the game's most exciting young sluggers, the 2006 Brewers are primed to improve on last year's 81-81 performance and take things to the next level.
Notable offseason transactions
After making room for stud second baseman Rickie Weeks by dealing Junior Spivey to the Nationals for starter Tomo Ohka midway through 2005, the Brewers' primary goal this offseason was to make room for oversized slugger Prince Fielder. Considering Lyle Overbay was no slouch himself at first, they had plenty of interest. In the end, Overbay was dealt North of the border to the free-wheeling Blue Jays in exchange for pitchers Dave Bush and Zach Jackson and reserve outfielder Gabe Gross.
The same day they traded Overbay, the Brew Crew reacquired former closer Dan Kolb from the Braves for reliever Wes Obermueller.
Seemingly set at nearly every position, the Brewers expected to essentially stand pat the rest of the offseason, but that was before third baseman Corey Koskie was put on clearance by the Blue Jays, who employed 48 third basemen after acquiring Troy Glaus from the Diamondbacks. Koskie was brought into the fold for the small price of minor leaguer left-hander Brian Wolfe, and the Jays were even kind enough to chip in over 60 percent of the remaining $11 million (two years) of Koskie's contract.
Projected starters
C: Damian Miller
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Rickie Weeks
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Corey Koskie/ Bill Hall
LF: Carlos Lee
CF: Brady Clark
RF: Geoff Jenkins
SP: Ben Sheets
SP: Doug Davis
SP: Chris Capuano
SP: Tomo Ohka
SP: Dave Bush/ Rick Helling
CL: Derrick Turnbow
What to watch
Obviously, you'll want to watch the development of two potential fantasy superstars in Weeks and Fielder. Weeks displayed the power and speed that makes him one of baseball's top infield prospects, but will have to improve on his category-killing batting average of .237 to leap into the upper echelon of second basemen. Fielder slugged 28 homers and 86 RBI in 103 minor league games and hit two dingers in 59 major league at-bats. He's kept his average up at all levels in the minors, so assuming he's dropping bombs in spring training, pencil him in as a top Rookie of the Year candidate.
At short, rookie J.J. Hardy shook off a sluggish start to bat .308 with eight homers and 31 RBI after the All-Star break, including five taters and 19 RBI in September alone. If he sustains that level of production this spring, he's a bona fide fantasy sleeper heading into 2006.
Bill Hall, who cranked 10 homers in a 30-game span in early summer, would be more intriguing had he not lost his starting job to Koskie. Manager Ned Yost still plans to get him 400 at-bats and his multi-position eligibility makes him attractive in deep and NL-only formats, but he'll have to prove his brief power streak wasn't a mirage.
Brady Clark came from out of nowhere to post his career season at the ripe old age of 32. The center fielder earned his stripes with a .306 batting average and double-digits in both homers and steals. Pardon us if we're a bit skeptical about a journeyman who never made it to the major leagues until he was 30 and more than doubled his previous career high in homers. Be ready to jump ship at any sign of weakness from Clark.
The rotation could be great, assuming Ben Sheets is healthy and Chris Capuano is for real. Sheets was hampered in 2005 by a bizarre inner-ear condition and a torn back muscle, yet managed 10 wins and a solid 3.33 ERA in just 22 starts. After offseason surgery to clear up the back issue, Sheets has proclaimed himself healthy and reportedly hopes to play in the World Baseball Classic despite the Brewers objections, so we'll get an early gauge on his health this spring.
Capuano busted out with 18 wins and 176 strikeouts in just his second major league season. While we don't doubt his ability to provide a solid return on your investment this year, his 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in the second half, not to mention his heavy workload (219 innings pitched), should give fantasy owners a little food for thought.
Ohka was a much better pitcher after coming over from the Nationals and could be worth targeting in deep and NL-only formats with a solid spring. At the fifth spot, Bush failed to build on his impressive 2004 major league debut, but a move to the pitcher-friendly National League could help him. That is, if he can beat out left-for-dead veteran Rick Helling, who went an improbable 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in seven starts filling in for Sheets at the end of 2005. To paraphrase Clark W. Griswold, we'd be less surprised if we woke up with our heads stapled to the carpet than we'd be if the washed-up Helling were able to repeat that feat.
Feeling Minnesota
Heading into 2005, the Twins were everybody's favorite sleeper pick to take the next step from three-time division champion to World Series contender. But some of their young talent didn't quite live up to expectations, and an anemic offense consistently wasted strong pitching as Minnesota had to watch their division-rival Chicago White Sox take a champagne bath instead.
How did the Twins address the widening gap between themselves and the Sox and Indians atop the Central? It certainly wasn't by throwing money at the problems. So once again the Twins enter spring training with tons of quality pitching, a questionable offense, and nary a big-ticket item in the everyday lineup. Hey, it worked in 2002, 2003, and 2004; maybe it will work again.
Notable offseason transactions
The Twins' Hot Stove League got off to a nice start as they pilfered second baseman Luis Castillo from the fire-sale Marlins in exchange for a pair of young pitchers with little or no big-league experience.
Unfortunately, that December 2 move was the offseason's highlight.
Predictably, the Twins were rumored to be pursuing veteran free agents or perhaps even a trade that would net them the power hitter the club desperately needed. Names like Hank Blalock, Frank Thomas, and Mike Piazza were mentioned, but ultimately the team ended up with Rondell White, Tony Batista, and Ruben Sierra.
And that, essentially, was it. Unless you think minor-league signees like Shawn Wooten, Darrell May, Ryan Glenn, Pete Munro, Dennys Reyes, Gabe White, and Tim Raines Jr. should be considered notable.
The Twins also parted ways with a couple of mainstays from their three-time division champs. Right fielder Jacque Jones, who was supposed to be cut loose last year but received a reprieve when prospect Jason Kubel shredded his knee, left for greener pastures in Wrigley Field. The team also traded lefty reliever J.C. Romero, at one time one of the better set-up men in the game, to the Angels for infield prospect Alexi Casilla.
Pitchers Terry Mulholland, Grant Balfour, and Joe Mays and infielder Brent Abernathy won't return, either, after signing free-agent deals elsewhere.
On the bright side, the rumored trade of centerfielder Torii Hunter, one of the Twins' few marquee players, never materialized.
Whether the garage-sale shopping and pinning hopes to prospects will return the Twins to the top of the AL Central remains to be seen.
Projected starters
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Luis Castill
SS: Jason Bartlet
3B: Tony Batista
LF: Shannon Stewart
CF: Torii Hunter
RF: Jason Kubel
SP: Johan Santana
SP: Brad Radke
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: Kyle Lohse
SP: Scott Baker/Francisco Liriano
CL: Joe Nathan
What to watch
Much of the Twins' lineup is set, although last season's struggles indicate that there's room for improvement even among those with jobs sewn up.
The rotation appears solid, with 2004 Cy Young winner Johan Santana pacing a staff that includes veteran Brad Radke and Carlos Silva, who may have been the club's most consistent pitcher last season. Aside from Radke's penchant for one bad inning, the trio provided fantasy owners with just about everything they could hope for… except wins.
The Twins seem willing to give Kyle Lohse the fourth spot and ease youngster Scott Baker into a big-league role in the fifth spot. Of course, that could change if Lohse pitches as poorly as he did last season. Somehow Lohse will command at least $3 million this season, pending the outcome of his arbitration hearing; if he struggles as mightily as he did in 2005—or brings a similar surly attitude to the clubhouse—the Twins won't have any problems kicking him to the curb and turning the ball over to one of their pitching prospects.
Of course, the most prized prospect in Minnesota's farm system is Francisco Liriano, who was sought by any team the Twins talked trade with this offseason. The Twins appear willing to start Liriano in the minors and use Baker as the fifth starter, but a stellar spring—or a lousy one from Lohse—could expedite Liriano's trip to The Show.
After unloading Romero this offseason, the Twins are in need of a left-hander for their pen. Retreads Reyes, White, and May, all signed to minor-league deals, appear to be the top contenders, though the Twins have also indicated they're willing to open the season without a portside presence in the pen if none emerges.
It's unlikely that will ruffle the feathers of closer Joe Nathan, who has been rock-solid in two seasons as the Twins' closer. Jesse Crain is developing into a top-notch setup man and should also be considered a handcuff to Nathan, just in case.
The outfield also lacks much drama, as the Twins believe keeping White in the DH role will minimize the time he spends on the DL; after all, you can't spell "Rondell" without "DL". If the Twins could squeeze 450-500 at-bats out of White, they might get some of the power they so desperately need. Hunter is also capable of 30 homers and says he's at full speed after missing the final two months of the season with a broken ankle—critical, because much of his fantasy value has come from his stolen bases the past few seasons. Shannon Stewart may be the Twins' top clutch hitter, but at this stage of his career he offers fantasy folks little more than batting average.
With Jacque Jones gone, the hope is that Kubel is healthy enough to play right field every day. Kubel, you may recall, was slated for that job last year before blowing out his knee in the Arizona Fall League. He's been cleared for duty, and he'll get every opportunity this spring to show he can handle the job. If not, long-time prospect Michael Cuddyer could get another shot at the position, or the Twins may turn to versatile backup Lew Ford. Sierra, signed to a minor-league deal, is projected as a left-handed bat off the bench.
Introductions might be required in the infield, where Castillo takes over at second base and Batista has been tabbed to handle the hot corner. Batista was wooed from Japan with a minor-league deal, but outside of Cuddyer or one of their utility infielders the Twins don't have a Plan B. Jason Bartlett won the starting shortstop job coming out of spring training last year but was back in the minors by mid-May. He'll get another chance this spring, and once again the fallback options aren't pretty.
Castillo is slated to hit behind Stewart at the top of the Twins' lineup, while Barlett—who hit up in the order last year—won't face nearly the same pressure this time around batting eighth or ninth.
At first base, the Twins dearly hope Justin Morneau can—finally—give them the power threat they thought he'd provide last season. At least Morneau, who endured a string of odd maladies two winters ago, enters camp reasonably healthy; moreover, he and Hunter—who nearly came to blows in the locker room last season—have patched things up.
The Twins' only worry behind the dish is whether or not Joe Mauer can escape the World Baseball Classic uninjured. He's penciled into the third spot in the lineup and continues to mature as a hitter; can 20-homer power be far off for the 22-year old with a career .297 average?
So, if all of Minnesota's prospects are finally as good as advertised, and GM Terry Ryan proves to be a brilliant shopper with his bargain acquisitions, maybe the Twins can come out of spring training with a shot at reeling in the White Sox and Indians. And maybe those players will reward the fantasy folks who've been patiently waiting for them to live up to the hype.
That Other Team from New York
Spring Training Home: Tradition Field, Port St. Lucie, FL
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Cardinals
Despite a payroll that regularly eclipses nine figures and ranks in the top five in all of baseball, the Mets have failed to make the playoffs since 2000. So, what's the solution? Well, obviously, simply throw more money at the situation. While David Wright and Jose Reyes emerged as a bona fide stars in 2005 and the team finished above .500 for the first time in four years, it wasn't enough to seriously contend in the Division the Braves Built. No worries. General manager Omar Minaya, throwing greenbacks around like he's trying to impress the Boss over in the Bronx, added superstars to the middle of the Mets lineup and at the end of the bullpen in the hopes of boosting this team into the postseason, but after all the offseason activity, the team will likely go only as far as Pedro Martinez' right big toe will allow it.
Notable offseason transactions
It all began in November. In a move that foreshadowed the activity to come, Minaya dealt center fielder Mike Cameron to the Padres in exchange for promising young batsman Xavier Nady.
Next, Minaya did his best to help douse the Marlins' fire sale by taking slugging first baseman Carlos Delgado off the market. All it cost him were three prospects, albeit a couple of promising ones. One-sacker Mike Jacobs, infielder Grant Psomas, and pitcher Yusmeiro Petit all went South in the transaction. Jacobs and Petit, in particular, are considered elite prospects, but it was a small price to pay for one of the game's most feared hitters. Delgado has averaged 114 RBI in his 10 full seasons, batted .301 with 33 taters and 115 RBI a year ago, and provides immediate legitimacy at the clean-up position.
In an apparent effort to get all his Christmas shopping done early, Minaya was not done. Less than a week after the Delgado bombshell, the Mets handed pint-sized fireballer Billy Wagner to a four-year, $43 million deal. The former Phillies closer gives the Mets their best closer since, well, ever, and as an added bonus, they were able to weaken his former team, a division rival, and keep Wagner from signing with the Braves, another division nemesis.
Minaya so enjoyed working with the Marlins, however, that he went back to the well again in early December, foisting two players to be named later on the Fish in exchange for sweet-swinging backstop Paul Lo Duca.
As the calendar turned to 2006, Minaya turned his attention back to the bullpen. After sending starter Jae Seo and lefty Tim Hamulack (excuse you) to the Dodgers for setup man Duaner Sanchez and righty Steve Schmoll, he dealt the husband of Anna Benson to the Orioles in exchange for gargantuan reliever Jorge Julio and right-hander John Maine.
For the sake of brevity and to keep you interested, we'll just summarize the rest of the Mets' offseason activity:
Additions: 2B Bret Boone, INF Jose Valentin, Senior Citizen Julio Franco (to a two-year deal at age 93!), OF Endy Chavez, OF Tike Redman, RHP Chad Bradford, LHP Matt Perisho, LHP Darren Oliver, RHP Jose Parra, LHP Pedro Feliciano
Subtractions: 1B Marlon Anderson, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B Jose Offerman, C Mike Piazza, C Mike DiFelice, 2B Miguel Cairo, C Mike DiFelice, RHP Danny Graves, RHP Roberto Hernandez, RHP Kaz Ishii, RHP Braden Looper
Projected starters
C: Paul Lo Duca
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Yo Momma
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: David Wright
LF: Cliff Floyd
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Xavier Nady
SP: Pedro Martinez
SP: Tom Glavine
SP: Steve Trachsel
SP: Victor Zambrano
SP: Aaron Heilman
CL: Billy Wagner
What to watch
You can pretty much set your watch to the fact that Delgado will hit .285 or so with 35 homers and 115 RBI and that Wagner will save 35-40 games, so the primary players to watch this spring are actually holdovers from a year ago.
At the top of that list sits Martinez and his big piggy. Pedro has been hampered by the toe since 2004, but pitched without any apparent ill effects all of last year until shutting it down before his final two starts. Offseason reports regarding the toe had Mets fans on pins and needles, but he started making progress in January and will now be fitted with a special shoe that is designed to protect the damaged cartilage in the digit. As Pedro goes, so goes a rotation that is questionable, at best, behind him.
Tom Glavine had his best year as a Met in 2005 with 13 wins and a 3.53 ERA, but considering he turns 40 during spring training, it's tough to project improvement. Steve Trachsel is the quintessential innings eater, which is a term that should make fantasy owners run and hide. A regular 200-inning workhorse, Trachsel missed most of 2005 with a herniated disk that spared fantasy owners from having to stomach an ERA in the mid-4.00's, a WHIP near 1.40, and 10 or 11 wins. If that floats your boat, add Trachsel to your fantasy dinghy. Unless you're in an extremely deep or NL-only league, however, try to look the other way when Steve toes the rubber this spring.
Behind Trachsel we're in a bit of a gray area. Victor Zambrano is flat-out horrible and serves mainly as a microcosm of the front office gaffes of the Mets organization for the last five years. Mets fans would rather forget the trade that sent uber-prospect Scott Kazmir to the Devil Rays at the trade deadline two years ago, but the team still plans to trot Zambrano out there ever fifth day in a practice roughly equivalent to corporal punishment. Don't look directly at him in Grapefruit League action this spring to avoid turning to stone.
After the exits of Benson and Seo, a spot opened up in the rotation for youngster Aaron Heilman. Heilman is a highly-touted prospect who, for whatever reason, tends to pitch much better out of the pen than he does as a starter. He spent the offseason appearing in trade rumor after trade rumor on a sports website near you, but should earn a spot in the rotation with even a so-so performance this spring. A former No. 1 draft pick with nasty stuff, keep him on your radar in the hopes that he overcomes his allergy to the starting rotation.
Aside from the continued development of young studs Wright and Reyes, the position player you should be most concerned about is Carlos Beltran. Regularly considered a top three (If not top one) overall fantasy draft pick a year ago, Beltran put up his worst digits (by far) since an injury-plagued 2000 season. Carlos lost his plate discipline, didn't run, and didn't hit for power, in the process transforming himself from a five-tool player to, well, a tool. He's one of the most difficult fantasy players to rank this preseason, but if he's driving the ball and running the basepaths this spring, start nudging him back up your draft boards.
In case you didn't notice, second base is a mess. Kaz Matsui is walking on very thin ice after failing to hold the job the last two seasons, Bret Boone was out of baseball by the end of last season, and several mediocre prospects are not ready to step in yet. Avoid this situation like an elementary school during flu season.
An Offseason About Nothing
Spring Training Home: Legends Field, Tampa, FL
First Grapefruit League Game: March 2 vs. Phillies
Aside from one big splash, it was, for the most part, a Seinfeld-esque offseason about nothing for the Yankees. Notorious spendthrift George Steinbrenner spent the winter in quiet solitude, pondering the possibility of switching to all-cotton uniforms, eating eggplant calzones from Paisano's, defusing bomb threats in the Assistant to the Traveling Secretary's office, and generally sitting idly by as all of the big ticket free agents signed elsewhere. Well, except when he swooped in to help Johnny Damon give one final twist of the knife into the backs of Red Sox nation, persuading the Pride of Boston to trade in his facial hair and unkempt mane for a chance to roam center field in Yankee Stadium. The addition of Damon completes a fearsome offensive lineup, but that wasn't the Yankees problem a year ago. The bigger question is whether or not aging aces Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina can provide enough punch at the top of a questionable and injury-prone rotation to lead the Yanks back to the Promised Land.
Notable offseason transactions
Big Stein was conspicuous by his absence from the bidding for stud free agents like A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett, and the team was prepared to enter 2006 with essentially the same team that won the A.L. East with a 95-67 record a year ago. Then, however, Damon felt "embarrassed" by Boston's offer of four years, $40 million, and suddenly Steinbrenner jumped into the fray, deep pockets first. And why wouldn't he? What better opportunity to hurt your bitter rival than to steal one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball simply by throwing an extra $12 million his way? Done. Welcome to New York, Johnny, now cut that hair and grab a razor.
Amazingly, the Damon coup was Steinbrenner's only major offseason acquisition. After losing top setup man Tom Gordon to the Phillies, the Yankees gave Kyle Farnsworth 17 million reasons to believe that setting up for Mariano Rivera was more attractive than closing for some other team. The Evil Empire also took a chanc