Panzram
03-15-2006, 04:04 PM
Jason Varitek, Red Sox
Catchers walk a very fine line in fantasy baseball. Those that do something – anything, really – above average become very valuable commodities, especially in leagues that require you to start two backstops. However, once a player slips into the "average" range, one is nearly identical to the next. With a .281 batting average and 22 dingers, Varitek certainly separated himself from the dime-a-dozen, .260 hitters with 12-15 homer power in 2005. I have little doubt Varitek can club 15 homers, but he's a career .272 hitter who batted just .252 with nine homers and 37 RBI (including .172 and one in September) in the second half of 2005. At 34, Varitek is on the downside of his career, and slipping into the .270 and 15 range puts him in a class with the A.J. Pierzynki/Michael Barrett/Ramon Hernandez range. Heck, even Jason LaRue hit .260 with 14 taters last year. The point is, I'd have a hard time justifying spending a high draft pick or the same type of cash I would on emerging young stars like Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer on Varitek on draft day this year.
Jorge Posada, Yankees
Here at Fanball World Headquarters, we recently moved into a brand new office. On Monday, Publisher Bo Mitchell was unpacking his things from the move and came across several old bobbleheads. Aiming to decrease the amount of clutter on his own desk, he offered said bobblehead to the rest of the Fanball writers. Nobody wanted it. In fact, had Bo offered up a month-old carton of curdled milk, the reaction would have been better. In a work environment where sports paraphernalia is as much a status symbol as rank or pay, the fact that nobody wanted a free Posada bobblehead is a telling one. In Jorge's case, his declining fantasy value had as much to do with our office's nonchalance towards him as the fact that he plays for the hated Yankees. Why? 1) he's now 34. 2) He is on a three-year trend of decreasing returns in batting average, homers, RBI, on base percentage, slugging, OPS, walks per nine, you name it. 3) did I mention he's past his prime and plays for the Evil Empire? All kidding aside, Posada's declining digits bring him dangerously close to slipping into the same boring realm of mediocre catchers I described above. Don't overbid.
Doug Mirabelli, C, San Diego Padres
A lot of people saw Mirabelli go from a backup job with the Red Sox to a potential starting gig with the Padres during the off-season and thought they had found a sleeper. Normally that would be smart thinking, as Mirabelli hit .257 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs in 459 at-bats in a reserve role over the past three years. However, Mirabelli had an .835 OPS at home over that span compared to .750 on the road, and now he'll be playing half his games at Petco Park, where homers and doubles from Fenway Park become routine fly outs.
Mike Piazza, C/1B, San Diego
When a 37-year-old hitter with as many miles on the odometer as Piazza shows this clear a pattern of decline, it's usually for good. Piazza hit .324 with 38 homers and 113 RBIs in 2000, posting a 1.012 OPS. His OPS totals since then have gone, in order, .957, .903, .860, .806, and .778. He'll catch for San Diego this season, but keep your expectations low.
Ivan Rodriguez, C, Detroit Tigers — Never had much patience, but at 33 years old, he completely forgot how to draw a walk and drove in just 50 runs.
Catchers walk a very fine line in fantasy baseball. Those that do something – anything, really – above average become very valuable commodities, especially in leagues that require you to start two backstops. However, once a player slips into the "average" range, one is nearly identical to the next. With a .281 batting average and 22 dingers, Varitek certainly separated himself from the dime-a-dozen, .260 hitters with 12-15 homer power in 2005. I have little doubt Varitek can club 15 homers, but he's a career .272 hitter who batted just .252 with nine homers and 37 RBI (including .172 and one in September) in the second half of 2005. At 34, Varitek is on the downside of his career, and slipping into the .270 and 15 range puts him in a class with the A.J. Pierzynki/Michael Barrett/Ramon Hernandez range. Heck, even Jason LaRue hit .260 with 14 taters last year. The point is, I'd have a hard time justifying spending a high draft pick or the same type of cash I would on emerging young stars like Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer on Varitek on draft day this year.
Jorge Posada, Yankees
Here at Fanball World Headquarters, we recently moved into a brand new office. On Monday, Publisher Bo Mitchell was unpacking his things from the move and came across several old bobbleheads. Aiming to decrease the amount of clutter on his own desk, he offered said bobblehead to the rest of the Fanball writers. Nobody wanted it. In fact, had Bo offered up a month-old carton of curdled milk, the reaction would have been better. In a work environment where sports paraphernalia is as much a status symbol as rank or pay, the fact that nobody wanted a free Posada bobblehead is a telling one. In Jorge's case, his declining fantasy value had as much to do with our office's nonchalance towards him as the fact that he plays for the hated Yankees. Why? 1) he's now 34. 2) He is on a three-year trend of decreasing returns in batting average, homers, RBI, on base percentage, slugging, OPS, walks per nine, you name it. 3) did I mention he's past his prime and plays for the Evil Empire? All kidding aside, Posada's declining digits bring him dangerously close to slipping into the same boring realm of mediocre catchers I described above. Don't overbid.
Doug Mirabelli, C, San Diego Padres
A lot of people saw Mirabelli go from a backup job with the Red Sox to a potential starting gig with the Padres during the off-season and thought they had found a sleeper. Normally that would be smart thinking, as Mirabelli hit .257 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs in 459 at-bats in a reserve role over the past three years. However, Mirabelli had an .835 OPS at home over that span compared to .750 on the road, and now he'll be playing half his games at Petco Park, where homers and doubles from Fenway Park become routine fly outs.
Mike Piazza, C/1B, San Diego
When a 37-year-old hitter with as many miles on the odometer as Piazza shows this clear a pattern of decline, it's usually for good. Piazza hit .324 with 38 homers and 113 RBIs in 2000, posting a 1.012 OPS. His OPS totals since then have gone, in order, .957, .903, .860, .806, and .778. He'll catch for San Diego this season, but keep your expectations low.
Ivan Rodriguez, C, Detroit Tigers — Never had much patience, but at 33 years old, he completely forgot how to draw a walk and drove in just 50 runs.