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Panzram
03-15-2006, 04:07 PM
Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
Seemingly from out of nowhere, Tracy erupted for 27 homers in 2005, including a ridiculous 19 in the second half. Where did that power come from? If someone can tell me, I'll take him off this list. But until then, call me skeptical. Before 2005, Tracy had hit a combined total of 32 homers in his major and minor league career – a span of four years. He's always had gap power and hit for a good average, which is all fine and dandy if that's what you're drafting him for. I'll grant you that he's a young player on the rise, but I can't shake the feeling that his 27-homer outburst is the exception, not the rule. Scholars maintain that he could hit 35-plus homers this year, but I'm not picking up what they're putting down. I'll willingly acknowledge that Tracy has value because he'll hold eligibility at first, third, and the outfield eventually this season, but I'll draft him only on the premise that he's the next Mark Grace, not the next Mark McGwire.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Lee will be a great Fantasy player in 2006, and it's very hard to classify a great Fantasy player as a bust. Before you start calling me names, let's try to keep things in perspective.

Before Lee exploded with 46 homers last season, he averaged fewer than 28 dingers per season over a five-year span. Before he hit .335 in '06, his previous career high was .282 back in 2001.

Heading into last season, the Cubs slugger was CBS SportsLine.com's 11th-ranked first baseman. This year, Lee is getting drafted in the first round of mixed leagues and in the top three of NL-only leagues. Owners banking on him duplicating his career year of a year ago are going to be extremely disappointed. Keep in mind Adrian Beltre followed up his 48-homer season of 2004 with only 19 homers last year

Carlos Delgado, 1B, New York Mets

Maybe it's the noisy planes that fly over Shea Stadium en route to LaGuardia airport. Maybe it's because they play second fiddle to the Yankees. Maybe it's the swarming big-city media.

Whatever the reason, hitters tend to fall off dramatically when they join the Mets.

Carlos Beltran had 38 homers and 42 stolen bases in 2004. He joined the Mets and disappointed Fantasy owners with 16 long balls and 17 steals in 2005. Roberto Alomar was having a Hall of Fame-caliber career up until 2001. He batted .336 in '01 and was considered a top-notch Fantasy option heading into the 2002 campaign -- his first season in Queens. He struggled with a .266 average and was never the same player. Mo Vaughn had belted at least 33 homers in six of seven seasons when the Mets acquired him before 2002. He hit 29 total homers in two disappointing seasons in New York.

Delgado has been as consistent as they come, hitting 30-plus homers in nine consecutive seasons. It remains to be seen if the Shea jinx will apply to him, but I do know one thing -- he won't be on my Fantasy team when we find out.

Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Konerko will hit 40-plus home runs and be a terrific Fantasy player this season. Just hear me out before you start sending me hate mail. Konerko was CBS SportsLine's No. 9 ranked first baseman heading into last season. He was drafted in the eighth round of the 2005 experts mixed league behind players such as Richie Sexson and Aubrey Huff.

Now, all of the sudden, Konerko is CBS SportsLine's No. 4 rated first baseman and was picked in Round 4 of the experts mixed league. The funny thing is, he had less homers and RBI last year than he had in 2004. So why is he getting all this Fantasy attention? That's the power of being a postseason hero. Let someone else overpay for his usual numbers.

Panzram
03-15-2006, 04:17 PM
Nomar Garciaparra | SS/3B/1B | Los Angeles Dodgers
The problem with spending a high draft pick or a substantial chunk of your cap room on Nomar Garciaparra is that even if he stays healthy—which he hasn’t been able to do since 2003—he’s unlikely to put up big numbers. Combined over the past two seasons Garciaparra has hit .309 with 18 homers and 71 RBIs in 143 games. And even those numbers are somewhat misleading because they came in Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, which both boost offense. Nomar will be calling Dodger Stadium home in 2006, which means he’s not a good bet to stay healthy and not a good bet to hit .300.

645
03-16-2006, 01:32 AM
First, I think Derrek Lee can repeat last years season or come close.

Chad Tracy I do belive will lose that first base job in Arizona and be a bust.

I also agree Carlos Delgado is a risky pick.

But I think you messed the biggest first base bust. I think that could go to Jeff Bagwell.

Panzram
03-16-2006, 01:33 AM
Thanks. Thought I wrote Bags in.

645
03-16-2006, 02:41 AM
Your welcome, You took the time to give all this good insight then I more then happy to give a deeper insight and point out a few more things so that everyone can make a better use of it.

Baseball Guru
03-16-2006, 02:16 PM
I would think Bags is not on the list because not many people are going to draft him.. He has no expectations therefore really cant be a bust... Who's going to draft him if you're really not sure if he is even going to play this season?

Panzram
03-16-2006, 02:19 PM
This is true, James. You would draft him to prove us wrong. :tongue:

Baseball Guru
03-16-2006, 02:25 PM
Yeah, probably.. I love Bags!

I hope he can somehow make it back...

PopTop
03-16-2006, 03:40 PM
If anyone is expecting Bagwell to be a force this year, then I want to join the league they're playing in. It's like saying Mike Hampton will be a bust among pitchers.

Whoever is writing this stuff is nothing more than a master of the obvious. Where are you getting it, Koz?

If the author can't figure out why Konerko's value is up this year, they haven't been following fantasy trends very long. Hitters who repeat 40-HR, 100-RBI seasons are always going to attract more buyers than the guys who just do it once. Not to mention Koko is playing for the defending World Series champs.

Panzram
03-16-2006, 03:47 PM
Call me Captain Obvious. :tongue:

PopTop
03-16-2006, 04:12 PM
Oh, sorry. Didn't sound like your writing, assumed it was from someone else.

Baseball Guru
03-16-2006, 04:48 PM
You wrote this crap?;)

Panzram
03-16-2006, 05:44 PM
No. :evillol

PopTop
03-16-2006, 06:11 PM
Aw heck, Koz. You had me sitting here all afternoon feeling guilty for what I said earlier about the author :whew:

Panzram
03-16-2006, 06:17 PM
Hehe. Sucker!