Panzram
03-15-2006, 04:18 PM
SP Dontrelle Willis, Marlins
Following their 1997 World Series victory, the Marlins sold off most of their top-price talent and dropped to 54-108 in 1998. Well, anyone who has paid attention this winter knows the Marlins might be looking at 54 victories again this season, and the projected record won't help Willis' probable win total. The bad news doesn't end there, though. The Marlins discarded a Gold Glove at third base (Mike Lowell), jettisoned the league's longest-running double-play combination (Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo), traded a speedy center fielder (Juan Pierre), lost the man who called and caught most of Willis' games (Paul Lo Duca), and installed a new coaching staff. In other words, Willis' inclusion in this article is not a reflection on the young southpaw's talent as much as it is the situation surrounding him. The D-Train could pitch well yet easily drop 10 wins off of last year's total.
SP Chris Capuano, Brewers
Capuano is coming off a season in which he had more wins (18) than Mark Mulder (16), Pedro Martinez (15), Carlos Zambrano (14), and countless other aces. He also struck out more batters (176) than Willis (170), John Smoltz (169), Josh Beckett (166), and Schmidt (165). Of course, we note these facts as a setup for slamming Capuano. The Brewers' southpaw was a major fantasy surprise in 2005, but he'll have a tough time repeating his stats. Capuano struggled as the season went on, and although he kept winning, he managed only four quality starts over his final 12 outings and posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after the All-Star break. While he could be a decent mid-tier starting pitcher this season, fantasy owners shouldn't look at last year's bottom line and assume that he'll be dancing with the big boys again.
SP Zach Duke, Pirates
Much like Willis in 2003, Duke sparkled in his debut. The southpaw jumped to the Show in July and went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA over 14 starts. By comparison, Willis went 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his first 13 outings. As readers likely recall, the league then caught up to Willis, and the Marlins ace needed an adjustment year (2004) before dominating in 2005. We expect the learning curve to be similar for Duke. He held opposing batsmen to a .237 during his first month of work (July), but that stat jumped to .250 in August, .266 in September, and .308 in October. Think hitters were starting to figure him out? It certainly appears that way, and while we love Duke's future, fantasy owners shouldn't go crazy with his value this season.
SP Jorge Sosa, Braves
Pitching coach Leo Mazzone left Atlanta for Baltimore this offseason, but the sculptor left behind his latest masterpiece. Like Jaret Wright before him, Sosa didn't carry much weight when he moved to Atlanta, but after some solid bullpen work, the Braves asked Jorge to make some spot starts. Sosa turned that role into 20 outings in which he compiled a 10-3 record and 2.62 ERA. Those outstanding digits earned him a spot in the rotation this spring, but his hold on the spot is shaky. Sosa continued to struggle with control last year (64 walks, 134 innings), and he has a couple kids breathing down his neck. Kyle Davies and Chuck James are vying for rotation spots and are key pieces of the Braves' future. Even if Sosa leaves spring training with a spot in the rotation, it's only a matter of time before Bobby Cox returns him to a bullpen role.
SP Livan Hernandez, Nationals
Livan the Lovable Workhorse has long been known as the perfect fantasy hurler to plug in behind a couple aces and not touch the rest of the year. By season's end, it's a good bet that he'll have a decent win total, solid ERA, and good strikeouts. However, Hernandez doesn't quite feel like the same safe bet this year. A torn lateral meniscus in his right knee caused both physical and emotional issues over the second half of last season, and Hernandez recently admitted to being less than 100 percent following October's surgery. The knee injury also altered his winter routine, and he showed up overweight. Hernandez's well-oiled arm is apparently fine, but other issues lead us to wonder if another 35 strong starts and 230-plus effective innings are in store.
Following their 1997 World Series victory, the Marlins sold off most of their top-price talent and dropped to 54-108 in 1998. Well, anyone who has paid attention this winter knows the Marlins might be looking at 54 victories again this season, and the projected record won't help Willis' probable win total. The bad news doesn't end there, though. The Marlins discarded a Gold Glove at third base (Mike Lowell), jettisoned the league's longest-running double-play combination (Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo), traded a speedy center fielder (Juan Pierre), lost the man who called and caught most of Willis' games (Paul Lo Duca), and installed a new coaching staff. In other words, Willis' inclusion in this article is not a reflection on the young southpaw's talent as much as it is the situation surrounding him. The D-Train could pitch well yet easily drop 10 wins off of last year's total.
SP Chris Capuano, Brewers
Capuano is coming off a season in which he had more wins (18) than Mark Mulder (16), Pedro Martinez (15), Carlos Zambrano (14), and countless other aces. He also struck out more batters (176) than Willis (170), John Smoltz (169), Josh Beckett (166), and Schmidt (165). Of course, we note these facts as a setup for slamming Capuano. The Brewers' southpaw was a major fantasy surprise in 2005, but he'll have a tough time repeating his stats. Capuano struggled as the season went on, and although he kept winning, he managed only four quality starts over his final 12 outings and posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after the All-Star break. While he could be a decent mid-tier starting pitcher this season, fantasy owners shouldn't look at last year's bottom line and assume that he'll be dancing with the big boys again.
SP Zach Duke, Pirates
Much like Willis in 2003, Duke sparkled in his debut. The southpaw jumped to the Show in July and went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA over 14 starts. By comparison, Willis went 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his first 13 outings. As readers likely recall, the league then caught up to Willis, and the Marlins ace needed an adjustment year (2004) before dominating in 2005. We expect the learning curve to be similar for Duke. He held opposing batsmen to a .237 during his first month of work (July), but that stat jumped to .250 in August, .266 in September, and .308 in October. Think hitters were starting to figure him out? It certainly appears that way, and while we love Duke's future, fantasy owners shouldn't go crazy with his value this season.
SP Jorge Sosa, Braves
Pitching coach Leo Mazzone left Atlanta for Baltimore this offseason, but the sculptor left behind his latest masterpiece. Like Jaret Wright before him, Sosa didn't carry much weight when he moved to Atlanta, but after some solid bullpen work, the Braves asked Jorge to make some spot starts. Sosa turned that role into 20 outings in which he compiled a 10-3 record and 2.62 ERA. Those outstanding digits earned him a spot in the rotation this spring, but his hold on the spot is shaky. Sosa continued to struggle with control last year (64 walks, 134 innings), and he has a couple kids breathing down his neck. Kyle Davies and Chuck James are vying for rotation spots and are key pieces of the Braves' future. Even if Sosa leaves spring training with a spot in the rotation, it's only a matter of time before Bobby Cox returns him to a bullpen role.
SP Livan Hernandez, Nationals
Livan the Lovable Workhorse has long been known as the perfect fantasy hurler to plug in behind a couple aces and not touch the rest of the year. By season's end, it's a good bet that he'll have a decent win total, solid ERA, and good strikeouts. However, Hernandez doesn't quite feel like the same safe bet this year. A torn lateral meniscus in his right knee caused both physical and emotional issues over the second half of last season, and Hernandez recently admitted to being less than 100 percent following October's surgery. The knee injury also altered his winter routine, and he showed up overweight. Hernandez's well-oiled arm is apparently fine, but other issues lead us to wonder if another 35 strong starts and 230-plus effective innings are in store.