Baseball Guru
04-10-2006, 10:37 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5488220
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
In the opinion of several general managers, it's practically a given that the Marlins will trade left-hander Dontrelle Willis before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.
Marlins president David Samson, however, calls such a deal "highly unlikely." Willis' agent, Matt Sosnick, says he would be "very surprised" if it happened.
Which will it be then?
When in doubt with the Marlins, bet on a trade.
The team's policy is that no player is untouchable, and keeping Willis isn't necessary to help secure a ballpark deal in south Florida or anywhere else, Samson says.
"I don't think one player gets a stadium deal done," Samson says. "Cities that want baseball want it for 50 years. They're looking for the name on the front of the jersey. They're not focused on a specific player."
If that's the case — if this is a typical baseball decision in which the Marlins weigh Willis' future earnings and performance against the low-priced bounty they could receive in return — the D-Train soon could be running somewhere else.
Willis, 24, stands to earn at least $7 million next season in arbitration, perhaps $10 million the season after that. The Marlins' entire payroll this season is $14.3 million. They need a new ballpark to keep Willis for the long term — and it's doubtful they will secure financing for one by July 31.
Any team that acquired Willis would control him for the rest of 2006, plus all of '07 and '08. Right-hander Bartolo Colon was a season closer to free agency when the Indians sent him to the Expos in a six-player deal in which they landed two cornerstones, center fielder Grady Sizemore and left-hander Cliff Lee. For Willis — a pitcher far more marketable than Colon — the Marlins could aim even higher.
From the Cubs, the Marlins could ask for a package starting with outfielder Felix Pie. From the Braves, they could demand catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. From the Red Sox, they could require left-hander Jon Lester.
Those names — and those teams — would only be the beginning.
Yet if the Marlins traded Willis — and followed that next season by trading third baseman Miguel Cabrera after his first crack at arbitration — the logical question, in Sosnick's words, would be, "What's the use of owning a team?"
"It's one thing to save $50 million in salary and maybe forfeit a season," says Sosnick, who, along with his partner, Paul Cobbe, represents five Marlins in addition to Willis. "For a guy as competitive as Mr. Loria, it's almost impossible for me to think he would just concede for the foreseeable future."
Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff, one of the San Antonio officials who met last week with Marlins executives, adds, "They've already got the payroll down about as low as they can get it. As they try to make a (ballpark) deal, they don't want to lose 160 games."
Samson, however, says that of the issues the Marlins face in trying to secure a new park, the identity of the team's players is "not even in the top 20."
So, would the Marlins trade Willis?
"You know us — over the years, everyone is available at all times," Samson says. "One of the things we talk about is that no one player is bigger than the team. That's why there is no such thing in our mind as an untouchable player. All you're doing is limiting and closing off other options.
"I would say there are certain players who are far less likely to be traded than others. I would put Dontrelle in that category."
For now. Maybe not for long.
Ken Rosenthal is the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
In the opinion of several general managers, it's practically a given that the Marlins will trade left-hander Dontrelle Willis before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.
Marlins president David Samson, however, calls such a deal "highly unlikely." Willis' agent, Matt Sosnick, says he would be "very surprised" if it happened.
Which will it be then?
When in doubt with the Marlins, bet on a trade.
The team's policy is that no player is untouchable, and keeping Willis isn't necessary to help secure a ballpark deal in south Florida or anywhere else, Samson says.
"I don't think one player gets a stadium deal done," Samson says. "Cities that want baseball want it for 50 years. They're looking for the name on the front of the jersey. They're not focused on a specific player."
If that's the case — if this is a typical baseball decision in which the Marlins weigh Willis' future earnings and performance against the low-priced bounty they could receive in return — the D-Train soon could be running somewhere else.
Willis, 24, stands to earn at least $7 million next season in arbitration, perhaps $10 million the season after that. The Marlins' entire payroll this season is $14.3 million. They need a new ballpark to keep Willis for the long term — and it's doubtful they will secure financing for one by July 31.
Any team that acquired Willis would control him for the rest of 2006, plus all of '07 and '08. Right-hander Bartolo Colon was a season closer to free agency when the Indians sent him to the Expos in a six-player deal in which they landed two cornerstones, center fielder Grady Sizemore and left-hander Cliff Lee. For Willis — a pitcher far more marketable than Colon — the Marlins could aim even higher.
From the Cubs, the Marlins could ask for a package starting with outfielder Felix Pie. From the Braves, they could demand catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. From the Red Sox, they could require left-hander Jon Lester.
Those names — and those teams — would only be the beginning.
Yet if the Marlins traded Willis — and followed that next season by trading third baseman Miguel Cabrera after his first crack at arbitration — the logical question, in Sosnick's words, would be, "What's the use of owning a team?"
"It's one thing to save $50 million in salary and maybe forfeit a season," says Sosnick, who, along with his partner, Paul Cobbe, represents five Marlins in addition to Willis. "For a guy as competitive as Mr. Loria, it's almost impossible for me to think he would just concede for the foreseeable future."
Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff, one of the San Antonio officials who met last week with Marlins executives, adds, "They've already got the payroll down about as low as they can get it. As they try to make a (ballpark) deal, they don't want to lose 160 games."
Samson, however, says that of the issues the Marlins face in trying to secure a new park, the identity of the team's players is "not even in the top 20."
So, would the Marlins trade Willis?
"You know us — over the years, everyone is available at all times," Samson says. "One of the things we talk about is that no one player is bigger than the team. That's why there is no such thing in our mind as an untouchable player. All you're doing is limiting and closing off other options.
"I would say there are certain players who are far less likely to be traded than others. I would put Dontrelle in that category."
For now. Maybe not for long.
Ken Rosenthal is the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.