Luvofthegame
09-02-2006, 09:01 PM
By Gwen Knapp
The San Fransisco Tribune
Friday, September 1, 2006
Barry Zito didn't need an ace effort to beat the gutted Red Sox on Wednesday, but there was still something emphatic about watching him finish off a sweep against a team addled by injuries. Seeing him leave Oakland after this season would be unbearable.
Teams generally squirm at the thought of committing more than four years to a pitcher. But if anyone is worth a fat, long-term commitment, it's a 28-year-old with a Cy Young Award on his resume, seven years' experience in the majors without a losing season and, above all, not a second on the disabled list the whole time. Zito's pitching repertoire, his motion and his lean, limber body suggest that he could go another seven years without missing a start.
But the A's don't need a lecture on this point. They know exactly what they have in Zito. If they didn't, they would have traded him at the deadline in late July, or in the offseason, after they added Esteban Loaiza to a lavishly talented staff. The only question for the A's is money, and whether Zito will be one of the rare exceptions to their philosophy of letting pricey free agents move on to richer teams. The Oakland way might be frustrating at times, but the payroll necessities, and the general direction of the team, don't cry out for second guessing.
The Giants, on the other hand, desperately need a fresh approach, and they'd be crazy not to consider pursuing Zito in the offseason. They have a strong rotation at the moment, but they are already facing a cold calculation at the end of the season, when Jason Schmidt's contract expires. Do they want to tie up roughly $12 million a year in a 33-year-old whose body has broken down in the past?
If the Giants decide to keep Schmidt because they really want a big, hard-throwing righty who has proven himself here, and their trainers predict that he will hold up well, that's fine. What the Giants cannot do is choose Schmidt over Zito, or anyone over Zito, because they are afraid of committing five years or more to a pitcher. It's that kind of conservative thinking that has loaded their roster with a bunch of creaky veterans who are just good enough to compete half-seriously in an abysmal division. They need to get over that.
This offseason is the Giants' chance to redefine themselves for the post-Bonds era, and a young left-handed pitcher with the best curveball in the game would make an ideal cornerstone. Picture a starting rotation with Zito and Matt Morris (whose wan performance this year has been a fluke) as the proven lefty and righty, then Noah Lowry and Matt Cain as the younger version.
If anything, Zito's next team should want to sign him for six years, through his 35th birthday. He has given strong hints that he will end up being as durable and reliable as Greg Maddux, even allowing for the stress that his big curveball might put on his arm. More to the point, because of his reliance on artistry over blazing speed, Zito will probably continue to improve. His mediocre years after the Cy Young season in 2002 have given way to mature performances, marred only by his tendency to over-think, which ultimately makes him lose focus.
One of the few certain downsides for the Giants (and other National League suitors) would be Zito's bat. He has one hit in 32 interleague plate appearances, and 15 strikeouts.
Still, that shouldn't deter any NL teams from pursuing him. Conventional wisdom holds that the Mets and Dodgers (one more reason for the Giants to enter the fray) will pursue him, and the Mets may have an edge over everyone because Zito would like to be reunited with his onetime mentor, New York pitching coach Rick Peterson.
The Yankees are also a possibility, but Zito would be wise to avoid them. The Yankees, as a team, do not have half the fun playing baseball that the A's have.
Nor, for that matter, do the Giants, even though the clubhouse has become looser this year. But changing that environment should be part of the reinvention process.
Of course, there is always a chance the A's will relent, especially if they end up in the World Series and Zito plays a big role in getting them there. That would be the ideal outcome. But in the current regime, Eric Chavez is the only marquee player to stay put, and his deal averaged $11 million a year, not the $15 million that appears to be a starting point in bidding for Zito.
(As a point of comparison, Houston ace Roy Oswalt, 29, just got a contract extension from the Astros that averages $14.6 million over five years. Generally, extensions pay slightly less than a free-agent's contract. Also, Oswalt has spent time on the disabled list this year, as well as three times in 2003, and he isn't a lefty.)
The A's would have to balance that paycheck against their desire and wherewithal to keep young everyday players who will be eligible for free agency before any five-year deal with Zito expires (think Bobby Crosby and Nick Swisher).
The Giants can only wish they had such problems.
The San Fransisco Tribune
Friday, September 1, 2006
Barry Zito didn't need an ace effort to beat the gutted Red Sox on Wednesday, but there was still something emphatic about watching him finish off a sweep against a team addled by injuries. Seeing him leave Oakland after this season would be unbearable.
Teams generally squirm at the thought of committing more than four years to a pitcher. But if anyone is worth a fat, long-term commitment, it's a 28-year-old with a Cy Young Award on his resume, seven years' experience in the majors without a losing season and, above all, not a second on the disabled list the whole time. Zito's pitching repertoire, his motion and his lean, limber body suggest that he could go another seven years without missing a start.
But the A's don't need a lecture on this point. They know exactly what they have in Zito. If they didn't, they would have traded him at the deadline in late July, or in the offseason, after they added Esteban Loaiza to a lavishly talented staff. The only question for the A's is money, and whether Zito will be one of the rare exceptions to their philosophy of letting pricey free agents move on to richer teams. The Oakland way might be frustrating at times, but the payroll necessities, and the general direction of the team, don't cry out for second guessing.
The Giants, on the other hand, desperately need a fresh approach, and they'd be crazy not to consider pursuing Zito in the offseason. They have a strong rotation at the moment, but they are already facing a cold calculation at the end of the season, when Jason Schmidt's contract expires. Do they want to tie up roughly $12 million a year in a 33-year-old whose body has broken down in the past?
If the Giants decide to keep Schmidt because they really want a big, hard-throwing righty who has proven himself here, and their trainers predict that he will hold up well, that's fine. What the Giants cannot do is choose Schmidt over Zito, or anyone over Zito, because they are afraid of committing five years or more to a pitcher. It's that kind of conservative thinking that has loaded their roster with a bunch of creaky veterans who are just good enough to compete half-seriously in an abysmal division. They need to get over that.
This offseason is the Giants' chance to redefine themselves for the post-Bonds era, and a young left-handed pitcher with the best curveball in the game would make an ideal cornerstone. Picture a starting rotation with Zito and Matt Morris (whose wan performance this year has been a fluke) as the proven lefty and righty, then Noah Lowry and Matt Cain as the younger version.
If anything, Zito's next team should want to sign him for six years, through his 35th birthday. He has given strong hints that he will end up being as durable and reliable as Greg Maddux, even allowing for the stress that his big curveball might put on his arm. More to the point, because of his reliance on artistry over blazing speed, Zito will probably continue to improve. His mediocre years after the Cy Young season in 2002 have given way to mature performances, marred only by his tendency to over-think, which ultimately makes him lose focus.
One of the few certain downsides for the Giants (and other National League suitors) would be Zito's bat. He has one hit in 32 interleague plate appearances, and 15 strikeouts.
Still, that shouldn't deter any NL teams from pursuing him. Conventional wisdom holds that the Mets and Dodgers (one more reason for the Giants to enter the fray) will pursue him, and the Mets may have an edge over everyone because Zito would like to be reunited with his onetime mentor, New York pitching coach Rick Peterson.
The Yankees are also a possibility, but Zito would be wise to avoid them. The Yankees, as a team, do not have half the fun playing baseball that the A's have.
Nor, for that matter, do the Giants, even though the clubhouse has become looser this year. But changing that environment should be part of the reinvention process.
Of course, there is always a chance the A's will relent, especially if they end up in the World Series and Zito plays a big role in getting them there. That would be the ideal outcome. But in the current regime, Eric Chavez is the only marquee player to stay put, and his deal averaged $11 million a year, not the $15 million that appears to be a starting point in bidding for Zito.
(As a point of comparison, Houston ace Roy Oswalt, 29, just got a contract extension from the Astros that averages $14.6 million over five years. Generally, extensions pay slightly less than a free-agent's contract. Also, Oswalt has spent time on the disabled list this year, as well as three times in 2003, and he isn't a lefty.)
The A's would have to balance that paycheck against their desire and wherewithal to keep young everyday players who will be eligible for free agency before any five-year deal with Zito expires (think Bobby Crosby and Nick Swisher).
The Giants can only wish they had such problems.