Movers and Shakers

[Tigers#1]

We all know what major league teams have been doing in the first half of the season. We’re here to tell you (and them) what they should do in the future, both by the trade deadline at the end of July and for the long haul. Executive editor Jim Callis (American League) and senior writer Alan Schwarz (National League) collaborated on potential moves for each club, juggling the factors of major league talent, minor league prospects and financial issues while also deciding who should and shouldn’t be playing to win this year. For the purposes of this exercise we ignored the threat of a work stoppage, which could grind trade and free-agent activity to a halt. Optimistic? Perhaps. But it’s a lot more fun this way.

ANAHEIM ANGELS
By The Trade Deadline: With 1B Scott Spiezio struggling against righthanders and Darin Erstad a pending free agent, the Angels could take care of both situations by acquiring Daryle Ward from the Astros for a minor league OF Nathan Haynes and RHP Francisco Rodriguez. Anaheim could play Ward at first now, then stick him in left field and move Garret Anderson back to center if Erstad leaves.

In The Offseason: Try to re-sign Erstad, within reason. He’s the heart and soul of the Angels, but he also could wind up with a sub-.400 slugging percentage for the third time in four seasons. A modest raise on his current $6.25 million salary makes sense.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
By The Trade Deadline: Get RHP Paul Wilson from the Devil Rays. Arizona needs more credible starters and Wilson will win more often with the Diamondbacks’ offense. Brian Anderson simply can’t do the job; this also could move Miguel Batista to the bullpen in the postseason. Offer 1B prospect Lyle Overbay, a Mark Grace clone you don’t have room for, and either cash or an arm.

In The Offseason: Enjoy the current run but take steps to get younger, and fast. Don’t exercise the option on Grace (letting Erubiel Durazo play every day), and let Anderson, Jay Bell, Todd Stottlemyre and Steve Finley go.

ATLANTA BRAVES
By The Trade Deadline: Trade RHP Kevin Millwood for 1B Sean Casey. With first a glaring weakness the Braves need a complementary hitter who gets on base; Millwood is too inconsistent for Atlanta but a good risk for the Reds. If you hold on to Millwood, try a cheaper acquisition like Travis Lee or Steve Cox.

In The Offseason: Re-sign Tom Glavine first, then Greg Maddux if possible. Glavine is healthier and pitching better, and probably will be a little cheaper. Handling this duo’s free agency will be a tough test of general manager John Schuerholz’ creativity.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
By The Trade Deadline: The Orioles don’t have much to offer. Veterans Jeff Conine, Marty Cordova and Scott Erickson aren’t having great seasons and are owed significant money through at least 2003. Dealing Erickson would save more than $8 million, so Baltimore should take whatever it can get, possibly minor league RHP B.R. Cook and 1B John Gall from the Cardinals.

In The Offseason: Owner Peter Angelos needs to hire a young, energetic GM, then stand back and show some patience. But that might be pushing the envelope of reality. Maybe Baltimore could insist on Expos GM Omar Minaya as compensation if Major League Baseball moves its franchise to Washington, D.C.

BOSTON RED SOX
By The Trade Deadline: Lack of production at first and second base hasn’t slowed the Red Sox down yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t. They probably don’t have the prospects to pry Jim Thome loose from the Indians, but they could obtain Fred McGriff from the Cubs for LHP Casey Fossum and minor league OF Dernell Stenson.

In The Offseason: Boston will shed a ton of salary when several big contracts expire in October, so it can be a buyer on the free-agent market. The Red Sox could pursue Thome without depleting an already thin system. They also could make a play for Tom Glavine, who wouldn’t mind returning home to Massachusetts.

CHICAGO CUBS
By The Trade Deadline: Admit you won’t win this year and dump Fred McGriff. Atlanta is a possibility, but look at Boston. Ask for LHP Casey Fossum–you need lefties badly–and maybe mid-level OF prospect Dernell Stenson. There’s simply no point in keeping McGriff around.

In The Offseason: Don’t feel you need to sign more thirtysomething veterans like Todd Hundley and Moises Alou to yourself put over the top. Let CF Corey Patterson develop, give second base to Bobby Hill and first base to Hee Sop Choi. Enjoy the savings and then spend when the time is right.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
By The Trade Deadline: Catching the Twins probably won’t happen and Sandy Alomar Jr., Royce Clayton, Ray Durham and Kenny Lofton are headed toward free agency, so move them now. If you won’t pay Keith Foulke, package him and Durham to Los Angeles for minor league IF Joey Thurston, C Koyie Hill and LHP Shane Nance.

In The Offseason: Chicago should let its free agents go to get prospects Joe Borchard, Joe Crede and either Tim Hummel or Willie Harris in the lineup. If Carlos Lee can’t maintain his recent resurgence, trade him to the Angels or Giants for a veteran pitcher and let Aaron Rowand play. Illinois native Dan Wilson, a free agent, could replace Alomar.

CINCINNATI REDS
By The Trade Deadline: Trade Sean Casey to Atlanta for Kevin Millwood. Casey is a luxury because Adam Dunn can move to first to solve the crowded outfield, though Juan Encarnacion should not be considered a long-term solution. Millwood provides a credible arm for a rotation that desperately needs one.

In The Offseason: Figure out how to trade Ken Griffey. A great move at the time, it backfired and it doesn’t seem possible for him to be happy and/or succeed in Cincy. Convince Griffey that it’s best for him to reset and go back to the American League. Approach the Angels about one of their starting pitchers, though that will take some creativity given Anaheim’s poor finances.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
By The Trade Deadline: Bartolo Colon makes $6 million next year, so the Indians shouldn’t have traded him, even if they received some impressive minor league talent. Jim Thome is surely gone as well, though there are few teams who have the money, prospects and need. Cleveland should see if Atlanta would give up minor league SS Wilson Betemit and a couple of young arms, such as Matt Belisle or Jung Bong.

In The Offseason: Trading Colon is an obvious sign the Tribe’s biggest concern is reducing payroll. Their offseason focus will be finding a taker for Omar Vizquel, who’s owed $15 million for 2003-04. Good luck.

COLORADO ROCKIES
By The Trade Deadline: The A’s love OF Jack Cust, so pull the trigger now by packaging him with LHP Dennys Reyes in a deal for OF Eric Byrnes and top 2B prospect Esteban German. Byrnes can hit and cover Coors Field’s big outfield if Todd Hollandsworth leaves, while German would provide hope for a woeful infield.

In The Offseason: With about $50 million committed to Mike Hampton, Todd Helton, Denny Neagle and Larry Walker, how much can be done? Approaching the Tigers about a Denny Neagle-Bobby Higginson deal is possible, which could save $10 million.

DETROIT TIGERS
By The Trade Deadline: Dave Dombrowski and Co. have lots of rebuilding to do, but there was no reason to trade Jeff Weaver, the only player resembling an all-star in this mess. His contract calls for $10.35 million in salary for 2003-04, which is reasonable. If you’re itching to deal, sell high on Robert Fick or Randall Simon.

In The Offseason: Would anyone pick up the nearly $30 million remaining on Bobby Higginson’s contract? Hard to imagine. But the Rockies might if Detroit would take on the $37 million remaining on Denny Neagle’s deal. Both players would have to waive no-trade clauses.

FLORIDA MARLINS
By The Trade Deadline: No move is the right move. Don’t torch the season by trading Cliff Floyd. But that now looks inevitable, as does trading several other name players including Ryan Dempster, Brad Penny and Luis Castillo, among others.

In The Offseason: Either build a ballpark or shut up and go away. Beyond that, consider paying Floyd what he wants, and if you have to, make room by trading Preston Wilson, who is just 27 but appears to have peaked early.

HOUSTON ASTROS
By The Trade Deadline: Admit you’re out of it. See if the Yankees would overpay for Daryle Ward. If they might set their sights higher, trade Ward to Anaheim for prospects, specifically OF Nathan Haynes and RHP Francisco Rodriguez. You probably won’t get RHP John Lackey.

In The Offseason: The left side of the infield is not strong, and assuming 3B Morgan Ensberg and SS Chris Burke are the answers is risky. Robin Ventura could be good complementary pickup for two years, but a more reasonable option is signing Bill Mueller as a free agent.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
By The Trade Deadline: The Royals don’t need to pay Jeff Suppan, currently making $4.15 million, what he’ll command in arbitration. So combine him with ultra-cheap Paul Byrd ($850,000) and see if that will entice the Twins to part with one of their hitting prospects, perhaps OF Michael Restovich, and a lesser pitching prospect.

In The Offseason: Kansas City should find the money to buy Carlos Beltran out of his last two years of arbitration and his first two of free agency. The Royals can save cash by non-tendering Neifi Perez and handing the shortstop job to stud prospect Angel Berroa.

[Tigers#1]

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
By The Trade Deadline: Go for the blockbuster: Trade arbitration-eligible 3B Adrian Beltre and 1B prospect Chin-Feng Chen to the Phillies for Scott Rolen. Beltre will not help win this year and gives the Phillies a replacement for Rolen. Second is also a weak spot, so GM Dan Evans could contact his former team about Ray Durham.

In The Offseason: Back up the truck for Rolen, but otherwise sign Ventura or Mueller. Just as important, end the Eric Karros era. Unload him however you can–he’s owed $14.5 million-plus the next two years. He doesn’t hit for much power anymore, which was his one asset.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
By The Trade Deadline: Perhaps the most valuable commodity is 3B Tyler Houston, who makes $1.55 million, hits lefthanded and will be a free agent. Find a contender that needs a corner infielder–such as San Francisco or Atlanta–and get what you can. SS Jose Hernandez will be a free agent and has $1.5 million due, so call the Dodgers and ask for a prospect like C Koyie Hill.

In The Offseason: Nobody should be untouchable except RHPs Ben Sheets and Nick Neugebauer. Consider sending 1B Richie Sexson to Philadelphia or San Francisco for several prospects. If you’re losing so much money, prove it by cutting your payroll.

MINNESOTA TWINS
By The Trade Deadline: The Twins believe in Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman and need rotation help. That’s why a Royals deal for Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan would make sense. If Minnesota wanted to take on the remainder of closer Roberto Hernandez’ $6 million salary, Kansas City would probably throw him in as well. OF Michael Restovich is talented, but the Twins would still have hitting prospects Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.

In The Offseason: The Twins should trade arbitration-bound David Ortiz for a reliever, which would open a lineup spot for Cuddyer. It also would fill a need, as four members of the current bullpen will be free agents.

MONTREAL EXPOS
By The Trade Deadline: Try to get Randy Johnson back. (Just kidding.) Do anything reasonable to finish in second place, at least ahead of the Mets. Perhaps that means do nothing now that Bartolo Colon has come, your top prospects are gone and salary can’t be taken on. Maybe Arizona needs arms so much, particularly cheap ones, they would give up a mid-range minor leaguer like Lyle Overbay (who perhaps could step in at first) for Carl Pavano.

In The Offseason: Move the club to Washington already. Play there one year somehow, then sell club for way more than the $120 million you paid. Spend some of the excess on the inevitable Jeffrey Loria lawsuit.

NEW YORK METS
By The Trade Deadline: The Cardinals could trade for Edgardo Alfonzo, but they don’t have the prospects the Mets need. So it looks like San Francisco, assuming they don’t get Scott Rolen. Ask for an OF prospect (Tony Torcato or Todd Linden) and a young arm, though the Giants might not offer much with Alfonzo ready to walk.

In The Offseason: Do anything to dump the Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz contracts; it worked with Todd Zeile and Robin Ventura, so maybe GM Steve Phillips can catch lightning again. Try to create enough leeway to wow Cliff Floyd, or make a play for Hideki Matsui given Bobby Valentine’s Japanese contacts.

NEW YORK YANKEES
By The Trade Deadline: With more cash and prospects than any club, the Yankees can get what they want. With Colon off the board and Jeff Weaver now in their rotation, they’re likely to make a big push for an outfielder. They sacrificed LHP Ted Lilly and prospects OF John-Ford Griffin and LHP Jason Arnold to get Weaver, but they can still build a big deal around LHP Alex Graman and SS Erick Almonte. And they still might move RHP Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez. Brian Giles could be a target.

In The Offseason: What would be better than bolstering an aging, injury-riddled rotation? Zinging the crosstown Mets at the same time by signing free agent Al Leiter. If they still need a corner outfielder, the Yankees could be the best fit for Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
By The Trade Deadline: General manager Billy Beane has lusted after Rockies minor league slugger Jack Cust for months. He’s a perfect tonic for Oakland’s offense, so go get him now. The Athletics have enough other options to part with Eric Byrnes and minor league 2B Esteban German, and Colorado might throw in Dennys Reyes, who could supplant the disappointing Mike Magnante.

In The Offseason: Terrence Long isn’t getting the job done offensively or defensively in center field. If the Blue Jays still have Jose Cruz and he won’t bust Oakland’s payroll in arbitration, he could be had for Erik Hiljus minor league pitchers Rich Harden and Neal Cotts.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
By The Trade Deadline: Don’t mess up the Rolen sweepstakes. St. Louis doesn’t have the prospects. San Francisco can offer a combination of the above young OFs and/or perhaps a top arm prospect (Jerome Williams or Boof Bonser), though that might be a little more than the Giants will stomach for two months of Rolen. Check out the Mariners to get an arm by agreeing to take Jeff Cirillo.

In The Offseason: With Rolen gone, try to convince Cliff Floyd that Philly’s new ballpark (opening in 2004) will make this a top, competitive market. Perhaps replace Rolen short-term with Todd Zeile, whose numbers aren’t dramatically Coors-boosted. Try to steal Jersey boy Al Leiter away from Mets and Yankees.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
By The Trade Deadline: The opportunity to trade Brian Giles to the Yankees for OF John-Ford Griffin, LHP Alex Graman and SS Erick Almonte seems to have passed with the Raul Mondesi and Jeff Weaver trades. Instead, talk with the Braves (who can offer Wilson Betemit, Matt Belisle and Jung Bong) to see if they’ll move Chipper Jones to first.

In The Offseason: Count the days–now under 500!–till the Kevin Young and Pat Meares contracts expire. With attendance down and cash low, what else can be done? Assess talent anew in spring training.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
By The Trade Deadline: The rotation needed more stability even before Darryl Kile’s death. But the Cardinals might have the weakest farm system in the game, so there aren’t many prospects to trade. Rather than go after Chuck Finley, set your sights lower and grab Ismael Valdes from the Rangers (for RHP Dan Haren and C Yadier Molina) or either the Orioles’ Scott Erickson or the Cubs’ Jason Bere, who can at least give you veteran innings.

In The Offseason: Re-sign Woody Williams, first. Then go after Scott Rolen, who will take less money to go to the calm St. Louis, Midwest market, which also features grass. Landing a player of his stature will help ease the negativity of the Buck and Kile deaths. If you can’t swing that, try Edgardo Alfonzo.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
By The Trade Deadline: With Phil Nevin hurt and Alan Embree gone to the Red Sox there isn’t much to trade. RHP Steve Reed could help a contender. Try the Angels, and get whatever prospect you can (RHP Phil Wilson?).

In The Offseason: Hope Nevin comes back strong–and then deal him because you already have tons of corner players. The Mets don’t have the talent you need, unless they torch their roster and deal Roberto Alomar. Houston needs someone to play third–though Nevin doesn’t have fond memories of the place–and could offer some mix of OF Jason Lane, RHP Rodrigo Rosario and SS Tommy Whiteman.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
By The Trade Deadline: Trading for Scott Rolen would make sense to entice him to sign there long-term, but having the prospects to tempt the Mets to send you Edgardo Alfonzo is more likely. If that costs too much, go for the Brewers’ Tyler Houston, who can spell J.T. Snow at first as well.

In The Offseason: Let Jeff Kent walk. If you can get Alfonzo long-term, he’ll provide the flexibility to play either second or third and allow you to pursue either position elsewhere. Ray Durham would finally provide a top-of-the-order asset but is probably overpriced.

SEATTLE MARINERS
By The Trade Deadline: The Mariners are set at most positions, but adding a veteran starter might be just what they need to hold off the Angels and Athletics. Seattle is so deep in outfield prospects that it could part with Jamal Strong. He and minor league RHP J.J. Putz could yield Chuck Finley and Ricardo Rincon from Cleveland.

In The Offseason: The Mariners’ biggest decisions will center on their own free agents. Our advice: yes on Edgar Martinez, Jamie Moyer and John Olerud; maybe on Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Dan Wilson if they can be had at reasonable prices; no on James Baldwin and Ruben Sierra. Seattle is another natural destination for Matsui.

[Tigers#1]

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
By The Trade Deadline: The Devil Rays can’t win or keep their heads above water financially. Just about anyone is available, especially if cash to sign Tampa Bay’s draft picks is part of the transaction. The Rays would love to pull another Jose Canseco and get someone to put in a waiver claim for Greg Vaughn and the $12 million remaining on his contract. It’s more likely they could move Paul Wilson to the Diamondbacks for minor league 1B Lyle Overbay and money.

In The Offseason: Step one: Pray like hell that commissioner Bud Selig gets his wish for an $85 million discretionary fund. Step two: Become very, very good friends with Bud Selig.

TEXAS RANGERS
By The Trade Deadline: Even if there were a contender with the need and the money to pick up the roughly $4 million still due Ivan Rodriguez this year, Pudge would have to waive his no-trade rights. The most likely bait is Ismael Valdes, who could be worth minor league RHP Dan Haren and C Yadier Molina to the Cardinals. Perhaps the Red Sox would want Frank Catalanotto for minor league RHP Mat Thompson.

In The Offseason: If the Tigers really insist on trading Jeff Weaver, Texas should make it happen. The system is deep with pitchers, so part with two promising ones in Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson to go with young OF Kevin Mench.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
By The Trade Deadline: The Blue Jays already dumped Raul Mondesi. They should continue to trim payroll and make room for a youngster, seeing if the Mets can handle Shannon Stewart’s salary and give up a possible closer (Scott Strickland), a nearly ready starter (Pat Strange) and Canadian OF Jason Bay.

In The Offseason: If the Jays haven’t dealt Stewart, they may want to find a taker for arbitration-bound Jose Cruz. GM J.P. Ricciardi could solve his former team’s center-field woes by giving the A’s Cruz for Erik Hiljus and a pair of pitchers signed in 2001, Rich Harden and Neal Cotts.